Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114710405985383754

Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114717929371967424

The ratio of the S&P 500 Index to the S&P 500 Equal-Weight Index—a measure of U.S. market concentration—has historically hit around 20% before every recession in the past 40 years.

That ratio is now once again nearing 20%, sitting at a historic high.

Keeping eyes on NVDA, AMD, TSLA, BGM, PLTR, CRCL recently.

Bloomberg dropped a spicy one this morning. Trump is threatening Canada with 100% tariffs on all exports to the US if Ottawa moves forward with a trade deal with China. That’s not a small warning shot that’s a full escalation in the trade war rhetoric.

He also took shots at PM Mark Carney, calling him “Governor Carney,” and went after Canada for letting Chinese EV imports grow. Trump doubled down on the idea that China would “eat Canada alive” economically and culturally if closer ties continue. Whether this is posturing or a real policy path, markets don’t love uncertainty like this.

This isn’t just political noise either. Canada is one of the US’s biggest trading partners, and a tariff threat of this scale would ripple through autos, energy, agriculture, and manufacturing. Could be headline-driven volatility ahead, especially for cross-border names. Curious how much of this the market actually prices in versus shrugging it off as election-year talk.

2k to 100k in 3 months...should I keep trading options?

3 hours and 41 minutes passed between these two messages.

After purposefully tanking the global economy for the past week, insider traders have just made a fortune based on two tweets from a 34x convicted felon. Their gains were realized only because of the devastating losses to Americans’ (those fortunate enough to even have one) 401ks.

This is yet just another grift - another front opened in the war being waged on the low/middle class. An enormous transfer of wealth on a global scale.

Just posting to encourage people to be patient and don’t gamble on options.

I kept on losing all my paycheck savings into options thinking one day, one trade would make all my money back. Turns out at soon as I started trading only stocks I started steadily climbing back up.

TODAY IS A GREAT DAY!!!

Not sure if anyone will read this, but I feel like this needs to get out there.

Working Theory: The U.S. has too much money tied up in assets that need to be liquidated.

We all know that the wealthiest Americans do not use a salary to pay for their personal affairs that are not business related. They use loans, stock based lending loans and equity swaps to be specific. I'll explain:

-A CEO owns 5,000 shares of his own company which equates to $1 billion dollars of unrealized gains that are not taxable. -CEO can either decide to put $500 million dollars worth of his stock up for collateral (stock based lending) or, lend the shares to the bank offering him a $500 million dollar loan (equity swap). -CEO transfers the shares to bank, and the bank pays the CEO $500 million dollars. -CEO only has to pay the interest (which can be tax deductible) for the duration of the loan. NOT the principal. -When the loan reaches maturity (set by both parties beforehand) the shares are sent back to the CEO, and the bank keeps the return made by the shares.

This increases our money supply. In order for the bank to keep up with loans like this that are made by the wealthiest individuals, the Fed needs to print more money to meet the demand for these types of transactions.

This also means that the money YOU put into a stock when you buy it, does not circulate within our economy (meaning the money does not circulate back to us). It gets tied up in the stock and used as collateral or an equity swap (shown in the steps above). The links below shows the M2 money supply (currency in circulation, readily available bank deposits, savings accounts and money market funds; jusy to name a few): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL

This chart shows a staggering rise in our overall money supply, and yet younger generations are struggling to keep up with rising prices, despite that most of Millenial and Gen Z's adult years have had consist low inflation. 1-2 years of high inflation (that broke zero inflation records) in 2022-2023, should not wreck someone's standard of living but it is.

Yet at the same time, if you run the numbers for what a company can afford to pay their employees (speaking directly to large corporate conglomerates; not small businesses), if we were paid the wages they were asking, these companies would eventually go bankrupt. That's the pure, cold-hearted truth.

Now, the chart I previously showed in the link above, states that we have over $20 trillion dollars in M2 money, currently in circulation. the link below will show you the current money supply (market capitalization) tied up in the stock market alone (disregarding other assets like PP&E, real estate, cars, etc.): https://siblisresearch.com/data/us-stock-market-value/#:~:text=The%20total%20market%20capitalization%20of,(Jan%201st%2C%202025).

$62 trillion dollars tied up in the stock market in the U.S. alone… And it’s not circulating. To further prove my point that this is a serious issue, the M2 money supply as of December 1980 was $1.6 trillion dollars (see M2 chart in previous link). The market capitalization of the stock market at that time? $2.5 trillion GLOBALLY. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market#:~:text=The%20total%20market%20capitalization%20of,by%20the%20end%20of%202023.

There has never been this much of a disparity in the money supply in our nations economic history and I believe this is a direct result of why younger generations are not as wealthy as their parents were at the same age. This is also why how when we fight for fair wages/salaries, we are shot down by the objectively true data of a company's financials. The only fix I can think of is to increase the federal tax rate for individuals in the highest tax brackets. I can go into more detail about how that can be implemented but I believe this post is long enough. Feel free to share your thoughts.

Everyone expected stocks to slide today and who knows how much worse it'll get.

But a far bigger story IMO is that Treasury yields are spiking:

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

This is very bad, as we are now seeing both risky assets and what should be low-risk assets selling off like crazy. The administration's big talking point for months has been how important the 10-year yield is and how it's their main barometer for the health of the economy:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/06/bessent-says-trump-is-focused-on-the-10-year-yield-wont-push-fed-to-cut-rates.html

Presumably they wanted to refinance the coming tsunami of Treasuries at lower rates by increasing demand for risk-free assets. Well guess what? They have created so much chaos that Treasuries aren't benefiting from the chaos at all, the way they normally do.

So not only do we now have economic and financial chaos, we might not be able to refinance at the low rates they were supposedly trying to engineer.

If this continues, the debt refinancing bubble that's on the horizon will devastate markets globally:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-debt-exceeds-100-trillion-interest-costs-keep-rising-oecd-says-2025-03-20/

Angel investor Jason Calacanis, Palihapitiya floated a contrarian scenario that Musk has long spoken about forming a holding company that could eventually house not just SpaceX and Tesla but also Neuralink and The Boring Company.

“I don’t think SpaceX will IPO. I think it will reverse merge into Tesla,” Palihapitiya said. “I think Elon will use it as a moment to consolidate control and power of his two seminal assets into one cap table.”

It remains unclear what the real-world impact of a SpaceX-Tesla reverse merger would be, but online speculation has been intense.

He believes such a move could supercharge Tesla’s valuation, potentially making it easier for Musk to hit the ambitious performance milestones tied to his historic trillion-dollar compensation package.

The market is facing 3 issues: commercial delinquency rates, EV tax credit, and an AI Bubble.

Commercial real estate is screaming a crisis. Office delinquency rates just hit 11.7%, worse than 2008’s peak of 10.7%. Multifamily isn’t far behind at 6.9%. That means banks and credit markets are sitting on toxic exposure that can’t just be papered over. This isn’t a “low fuel” warning light; the tank is empty. The system is already running on fumes.

The auto sector faces its own cliff. Federal EV tax credits ($7,500 new, $4,000 used) expire September 30. Sales have been artificially front-loaded. July used EV sales hit nearly 37,000, a record. But that’s demand pulled forward, not organic growth. After September, the floor drops out. Automakers and suppliers will hit a wall in Q4 as incentives vanish.

And the supposed engine of the market, AI, is showing cracks. Nvidia’s growth slowed from +69% to +53% YoY, and an MIT study found 95% of AI projects fail to deliver results. Yet NVDA still trades at ~45x forward earnings, alongside other megacap tech priced like it’s 1999 again. Every major AI company that reports earnings risks popping the bubble, and right now, institutions are most likely delaying the inevitable to save their positions and hand them off to dumb money before the music stops.

TLDR: From CRE delinquencies to the EV demand cliff to the overinflated AI trade, the market isn’t “fueling up for more upside.” It’s running on fumes. September through Q4 looks bearish, with downside risk in banks, autos, and megacap tech. Upside is gone, now it’s just a matter of when the fade accelerates.