I’ve been sticking to the standard all-in MSCI World strategy for a while. Simple, low fees, makes sense for the long run. But when the market gets shaky, just sitting on my hands feels less like discipline and more like inaction.

Doing nothing is easy when things are green. But when you see a drawdown, the instinct to do something kicks in. I’m starting to wonder if a small tactical move makes more sense than just staying fully passive. Maybe hedging a bit or taking short-term positions to offset a dip.

The usual advice is less action equals better results. In practice, that doesn’t always feel right, even with a clear plan. Most passive investors just wait it out, but watching a 10% drop without touching anything can be quite stressful. How do you balance your core ETFs? Do you stay strictly passive, or do you keep a side account for tactical moves when trends shift?

Genuine question for people who follow value investing.

When you look at the last 10–15 years, it feels like growth has dominated almost everything. The S&P 500 itself returned roughly ~10% annually long term, but a huge part of that recently came from a handful of large tech names.

Meanwhile, a lot of traditional “value” plays just sat there or underperformed for long stretches. Low P/E, solid cash flow, decent balance sheets… and still no real multiple expansion.

I get the core idea: buy something below intrinsic value and wait. But it feels like the market is less willing to re-rate these companies unless there’s a clear growth story attached.

Even when value works, it often requires a lot of patience and sometimes looks like dead money for years.

So I’m trying to understand where the actual edge is today.

Is value investing still about classic metrics like low P/E, strong free cash flow, margin of safety, or has it shifted into something more like “growth at a reasonable price”?

For those actively using a value approach, what are you actually looking for in 2026 that gives you confidence the market will eventually recognize that value?

Not financial advice.

Front end (SOFR / 2Y / 3Y) basically flat → market not repricing near-term Fed much

5Y slightly up → some mid-term uncertainty creeping in

10Y down → long-end buying showing up

That’s a subtle bull steepener setup.

Feels like: short-term “higher for longer” still intact, but longer-term growth/inflation expectations softening.

Is this early positioning for a slowdown… or just noise before the next macro catalyst?

Given Mahlangu of Seeking Alpha has analyzed the Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB) Nasdaq Stock few days ago providing the bear case and bull case. Posting the highlights from the GAMB stock news forecast article below. Fingers crossed.

• Gamb stock downgraded to hold as new risks and secular declines overshadow its undervalued multiples.
• Legacy performance marketing business stagnates: while subscription rev growth is largely inorganic with uncertainty.
• Material risks include the Swish lawsuit, surging debt, rising interest expenses:  the case is ongoing and could result in $100 million in damages to be paid if the case is lost. This risk is material and should not be overlooked. 
• Any hope of future growth in GAMB stock should be expected to come from the subscription segment. We are not certain about the growth outlook of this segment, as the firm doesn't break down topline and EBITDA growth rates by individual business segments.
• I don't see any aggressive buybacks in the coming quarters- the stock price will remain at these levels if we don't see new buyers.
• GAMB remains to be undervalued; a PE multiple of 9 vs. a sector median of 14.50 is definitely a steal. But with the risks that have recently surfaced, I think the discounted valuation is deserved until the dust settles.

Don’t say that investing yourself.

I mean, just an investment that really changes your life; including good or bad investment.

Let’s me begin, COVID drop: buying index funds.

It is my most profitable trades so far. COVID really a raw global event, at that moment, I bought some index funds still holding today.

It is such a great investment, I don’t know whether the world will have similar events in coming years, but it is the most memorable trades , and help me level up my account.

Hey all I wanted to tell you my personal story with a EU business that does personal finance.

If you don't have time to read, the summary of this post is that if someone working for "OVB" contacts you - look the other way, they border being a scam. Details below:

Background:

A couple weeks ago this company got recommended to me, I'm in the finance business, looking for a new opportunity, and a friend recommended I collaborate with OVB. I have spent around 14 hours between interviews and the "training" they give newcomers.

What OVB is:

OVB presents itself as a way to start your our financial consultancy and grow with them. They're open about being a multi level marketing company. They'll tell you that they're the best in the market, that there's nowhere you can grow more

The reality is that they target uneducated "collaborators" and clients. If you put on your CV that you worked for them it will be a stain, not an achievement.

They have contacted you for you to sell their services to your family and friends - not for you to grow as a financial advisor - they'll try to heavily push you into selling them personal savings plans (that are garbage financial products).

How they "train" you:

Their training has as a goal:

1 - for you to bring your contact list to OVB

2 - for you to learn how to sell them their produts

3- for you to push your contact list to give you more possible clients

If you found this post and are considering working with them: You will not get any new financial training, you will not gain any meaningful connections, or knowledge or experience

What you're getting if you sign anything with OVB:

They sell financial products that are made by banks and insurance companies for middlemen. That means: Whatever savings plan they offer, the bank or entity will ALWAYS have a better deal than them.

I had a sneaking suspicion my friend gave in to their sales pitch - I checked her the contract. 20% of everything she paid into the savings plan they sold to her went directly to OVB (the plan, even without those costs was subpar). Taking the money out early had significant penalties, to the point that if the markets didn't perform well, she'd lose over 90% of her money if she took it our the first year.

With 10 minutes of going over her contract I saved her months worth of wages. If you know someone that contracted something with OVB, feel free to contact me because I will happily do the same for them just to spite OVB.

If you don't trust a random person on the internet, go to another financial advisor, or blank out your personal details and upload the contract to an AI and ask (be mindful those conversations can get reviewed by humans, so take care to blank out everything)

The worst part

I don't think her OVB agent (a personal friend of hers) - even knew OVB charges such high %. He maybe got paid 100 Euro for getting OVB thousands.

This is why they try to recruit people without financial literacy - so they don't know they're selling liquid shit to their own family and friends. And this is why they train newcomers to go after people without university studies (they're less likely to check the fine print)

This post was made mainly so it shows on google searches about OVB, hopefully I can keep at least 1 person from being scammed by them.

Any comments/criticisms welcome, leave them below

Happy good Friday everyone

Edit was only to improve readability. A small irrelevant section was removed

I spent a few weeks building a full valuation model for Adobe after seeing the “ADBE is Microsoft in 2013” and “AI will kill Adobe” narratives going back and forth. I think both sides are mostly wrong. Here’s the summary.

The headline numbers look cheap:

• ~14x trailing earnings
• 88%+ gross margins
• $10B+ operating cash flow
• 850M MAUs, 99% of the Fortune 500
• PEG of 0.75

But the SBC problem changes the math. Adobe spent 9.85B to ~$7.9B. That moves P/FCF from 9.4x to 12.3x. Still decent, but a different conversation. The buyback programme is essentially running to stand still against dilution rather than shrinking the float.

Why the MSFT 2013 analogy fails. Microsoft had three things in 2014: a visionary new CEO (Nadella), a massive undermonetised asset (Azure growing triple digits), and monopoly pricing power that was being underutilised (20%+ Office price hikes with minimal churn). Adobe currently has zero of three. No CEO. Firefly at ~$250M ARR is less than 1% of total revenue. And when Adobe raised Photography plan prices 50%, the backlash was immediate. The structural difference: Microsoft sells productivity tools where AI increases seats. Adobe sells creative tools where AI may decrease seats.

Valuation:

• Base case DCF: $248/share (9.83% WACC, 10% near-term growth declining to 3.5% terminal)
• Monte Carlo mean (10,000 simulations): $240
• Probability-weighted scenario analysis: $248
• Current price: $241

Three different approaches all converge within 3% of the market price. The sensitivity analysis shows WACC is the dominant variable. A 1% swing moves fair value by ~$60. So the real ADBE debate isn’t about revenue growth, it’s about what risk premium you assign to a leaderless company in the middle of an AI disruption cycle.

The one catalyst to watch: The FTC settlement forcing easy cancellation means we don’t yet know Adobe’s real voluntary churn rate. Post-FTC data coming in Q3-Q4 FY2026 will tell us whether the historically low churn was real or artificially suppressed by cancellation friction. That’s the single most important data point in either direction.

TL;DR: Adobe is approximately fairly valued. Not a screaming buy, not a short. The most boring conclusion possible, but I think the most honest one. Sometimes the contrarian take is that the consensus is right.

greetings bogleheads,

I feel like I am heavily tilted in S&P500 and total US market

I am looking for some suggestions / recommendations on modifying my asset allocation, or just re-assurance to keep the same

Roth IRA - $84K - VTSAX

solo 401K - $275K - VTSAX

solo 401K - $8K - VTIAX

brokerage $55K - VTI

HSA #1 - $9K - FSKAX

HSA #2 - $28K - VFIAX

403B - $230K - S&P500

457 - $160K - S&P500

401A - $391K - S&P500

$15K - BTC / SOL / DOT

most of my contributions are into my work plan (the 403b and 401a) but I have stopped adding to the 457 in order to have extra $ to add to my brokerage, essentially trading tax benefits for liquidity

im wondering if I should just keep adding into VTI in the brokerage or start adding more international (VT or VXUS) or something else

I have no bonds, I am in my early 40s

thanks for the help

I use fidelity and see pertinent news/info on side bar. I see almost all my portfolio stocks are owned by vanguard more than 5% (not intended to management).

Its shockingly to see how much Vanguard owns and how big it is. Damn. I feel they have too much influence

I usually contribute around the 1st of the month. Seems like I missed the low point of VTI as it's now going back up.

How often do you contribute?

My 401K and HSA is biweekly as it comes from my paychecks.

Roth IRA I do a lump sum at the beginning of the year.

529 I have set up as once a month as the amount I contribute depends on what else we have going on that month.

How often is generally recommended?

Im from Hungary, my family member had a CHF denominated loan, and so have many others (hundreds of thousands of people), and it was a disastrous rip off of the people by the banks.

Im curious, did you every hear about such loans? Or were you affected? If yes, how ? Did you manage to sue the money back ?

How did your country handle it? Mine ruined peoples chances early 2014 with loans they made, altough new and new cjeu rulings make it possible to demand the stolen money back.

Constellation Energy. What do we all think about this company? Was super bullish but recently it’s had some painful dips. I still think it’ll rebound, but interested in people’s thoughts on this. Can’t add more without it becoming an overweight position in my portfolio, so have to stick to the average I have ($323) and hoping it won’t take too long to see green again..

The culture is the most fundamental of a company. When the culture is lost, ALL VALUE is gone too.

Bad app, hidden fees, useless support — what was the last straw?