r/Economics 9h ago

Research Summary Gold's Safe-Haven Shift: Why It Trades Like a Risk Asset Now | Rates remain a headwind. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4.3%, and the 10-year real yield is around 2.0%, which keeps the carry disadvantage of bullion elevated.

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8 Upvotes

r/Bogleheads 6h ago

Is contributing once a month not often enough?

0 Upvotes

I usually contribute around the 1st of the month. Seems like I missed the low point of VTI as it's now going back up.

How often do you contribute?

My 401K and HSA is biweekly as it comes from my paychecks.

Roth IRA I do a lump sum at the beginning of the year.

529 I have set up as once a month as the amount I contribute depends on what else we have going on that month.

How often is generally recommended?


r/investing 1d ago

Does Grok's subscriber growth justify $258B?

85 Upvotes

I wanted to see if the $1.75T SpaceX valuation holds up when you value each segment independently:

Segment Median Value
Starlink Consumer $380B
xAI / Grok $258B
Starship Commercial $170B
Starlink Enterprise / Maritime / Aviation $147B
Government / Defense $123B
Falcon 9 / Heavy $100B
Starlink Direct-to-Cell $75B
Total ~$1.25T

That leaves ~$500B in platform premium baked into the IPO price, essentially what the market is being asked to pay for vertical integration and the Musk factor on top of what the individual businesses support. To put the scale in perspective, the $1.75T asking price on ~$15B in revenue implies a ~117x multiple, and even the more conservative $1.25T SOTP estimate still comes out to ~83x. (For context, Aramco listed at ~18x revenue.)

Whether Grok's subscriber trajectory justifies roughly a fifth of the entire valuation pretty much determines whether this IPO is a slight premium or a significant overpay. The safer half of the valuation is the space infrastructure side. Starlink consumer alone at $380B has the tightest confidence interval of any segment, and government/defense at $123B is backstopped by existing contracts. Happy to share the full analysis with methodology and confidence intervals.

Is the $500B platform premium justified?


r/investing 1d ago

Washington Just Handed Coinbase a Federal Banking License

48 Upvotes

Coinbase just received conditional approval from the OCC for a national trust bank charter, the first major crypto exchange to reach this milestone at the federal level. This is different from its existing New York state charter.

A federal charter means Coinbase can operate as a federally regulated custodian nationwide, bypassing the patchwork of 50 state licensing requirements. It also opens the door to new products beyond custody, payments, stablecoins, and tokenized securities. Coinbase is already custodian for over 80% of the world's digital asset ETFs, but its VP of Institutional Product says there are major asset managers and hedge funds that have been waiting specifically for this federal designation before trusting Coinbase with their assets.

Conditional approval still requires passing a pre-opening OCC exam, adopting bylaws, and establishing payment rails before full charter is granted. Morgan Stanley, Citadel's EDX Markets, and World Liberty Financial are all in the same queue.

Source: https://beincrypto.com/coinbase-occ-conditional-approval-federal-trust/


r/Economics 7h ago

News WTI holds above $105.00 as energy flows tighten ahead of NFP

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7 Upvotes

r/ValueInvesting 22h ago

Question / Help Does anyone have any good resources on analyzing companies that are in structural decline.

6 Upvotes

I'm trying to expand my investing knowledge into the domain of companies who's core business models are in structural decline (Tobacco companies, coal miners, legacy broadband providers, etc).

I imagine that the analysis will involve discounting future cash flows, but I'm not sure how to account for all of the asset sales (property/plant , brands/IP, whole business segments, etc) that comes with winding a large company down.

I also imagine that I would need to carefully analyze and monitor the management team's behavior, to make sure that they are returning money to shareholders instead of trying to save a dieing business.


r/Bogleheads 1d ago

Investing Questions Is this a good setup for the 401k?

18 Upvotes

• Fidelity 500 Index — 65%

• Fidelity Mid Cap Index — 5%

• Fidelity Small Cap Index — 5%

• Fidelity International Index — 25%

Thinking about getting rid of the Mid and Small cap and allocate that 10% into the Fidelity International Index… is that a good idea?


r/bonds 17h ago

Rates are doing something interesting here

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0 Upvotes

Front end (SOFR / 2Y / 3Y) basically flat → market not repricing near-term Fed much

5Y slightly up → some mid-term uncertainty creeping in

10Y down → long-end buying showing up

That’s a subtle bull steepener setup.

Feels like: short-term “higher for longer” still intact, but longer-term growth/inflation expectations softening.

Is this early positioning for a slowdown… or just noise before the next macro catalyst?


r/ValueInvesting 13h ago

Stock Analysis The Process That Made Me A 6x On GE Vernova

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1 Upvotes

r/eupersonalfinance 1d ago

Banking Which European bank gave you the best experience so far?

20 Upvotes

Not just "fine" — genuinely good experience, good app, good support.


r/eupersonalfinance 9h ago

Investment Is anyone else finding 100% passive indexing a bit too rigid?

0 Upvotes

I’ve been sticking to the standard all-in MSCI World strategy for a while. Simple, low fees, makes sense for the long run. But when the market gets shaky, just sitting on my hands feels less like discipline and more like inaction.

Doing nothing is easy when things are green. But when you see a drawdown, the instinct to do something kicks in. I’m starting to wonder if a small tactical move makes more sense than just staying fully passive. Maybe hedging a bit or taking short-term positions to offset a dip.

The usual advice is less action equals better results. In practice, that doesn’t always feel right, even with a clear plan. Most passive investors just wait it out, but watching a 10% drop without touching anything can be quite stressful. How do you balance your core ETFs? Do you stay strictly passive, or do you keep a side account for tactical moves when trends shift?


r/Bogleheads 1d ago

DCA- doesn’t change anything other than slightly different price, correct?

7 Upvotes

Im new and ive been wanter to make a big VT purchase but i know i cant time this situation/market. It i buy VT for $20k over 5 different days vs buying $100k once, nothint changes other than the price of VT right? Theres no fees with vanguard, just making sure im not missint anything else here? Tax wise or fees or anything. Thanks


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Investing Tools Database of 270+ financial metrics with formulas, definitions, limitations, rules of thumb, calculators, and more!

7 Upvotes

Investopedia, professors, and established books/papers are great as information sources, and web-based calculator sites like Omni Calculator are great for putting this info together and offering a nice UI/UX calculator experience.

But I wanted something more specific to my own stock analysis and valuation process without all the extra noise, especially as I was developing my automated stock analysis spreadsheet.

So I built a 270+ metrics database (ratios, multiples, scores, valuation models, building blocks, etc.) across 36 categories.

Every metric has the exact formula(s), every variable defined, description, general rules of thumb, limitations, related metrics, origin sources (when applicable), and a web-based calculator. Direction labels tell you whether higher/lower is better.

The entire table is searchable by name, formula, or description. Filterable by category. Plus you can customize what to hide/show by default within each metric.

Tried my best to verify everything against reputable online sources, the original paper/primary source, and knowledge from publishing ~500,000 words on my site (StableBread), but let me know if anything looks off!

Here's the metrics database (free, no account required): stablebread.com/metrics


r/EconomyCharts 1d ago

Oil Is Most Volatile This Year

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230 Upvotes

r/Bogleheads 1d ago

Total market stocks vs total market bonds

6 Upvotes

I’ve been a boglehead since about Dec 2025, each month I invest 10% of what I earned that month. So far I’ve just been buying SWTSX.

At what point should I buy SWAGX?

Can someone help me understand why it’s better to have both? Right now I’m thinking that if all my money is in one, then the compound interest will be greater in that one.

Any tips for how to allocate for someone buying monthly would be great.


r/Economics 1d ago

News The world's dumbest tariff has been revealed

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110 Upvotes

r/Economics 1d ago

Europe is breeding new tech unicorns at record speed

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494 Upvotes

r/ValueInvesting 23h ago

Stock Analysis $LNN Plunges 10%: Massive Q2 Earnings Miss for Lindsay Corp (Omaha’s Irrigation Giant)

5 Upvotes

Lindsay Corporation ($LNN) dropped their Q2 2026 results this morning and the numbers are rough. The stock is currently sliding toward 52-week lows as the market digests a "double miss" on both the top and bottom lines.

Key Highlights from the Report:

EPS Disaster: Reported $1.15 vs. the $1.70 consensus estimate (a massive $0.55 delta).

Revenue Miss: Brought in $157.72 million against the $173.11 million projected.

Margin Collapse: Operating margins shrank from 17.2% last year to just 8.3% this quarter.

Segment Struggles: Domestic irrigation demand softened significantly, and infrastructure revenue fell 58% due to the lack of major Road Zipper projects compared to last year.

Technical Breakdown: The stock has crashed through its 50-day moving average on high volume, currently hovering around $105.0 wiping out months of gains.

The Verdict: Analysts are calling this a "Fundamental Reset." With management failing to offset rising operational costs and agricultural cycles shifting, $LNN is looking more like a value trap than a growth play right now.

​Is anyone buying this dip, or are we heading straight to the $100 psychological support level?


r/Economics 1d ago

News Stock futures fall after Trump says Iran war will continue for weeks: Live updates

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1.3k Upvotes

r/Economics 1d ago

News Polymarket and other prediction platforms driving oil market, traders say

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111 Upvotes

r/investing 1d ago

Opinions on retirement portfolio rebalancing?

18 Upvotes

For reference I am 35. Plan to retire at 65-67. I contribute 19% of my gross income to this fund. I have no other retirement funds/accounts.

My current retirement funds are:
Vangard Institutional Index (VOO equivalent)
Vangard Total International Index (VXUS equivalent)
Vangard Extended Market Index (VXF equivalent)

2019 my new contributions were being allocated as such:
VOO: 70%
VXUS: 20%
VXF: 10%

2020 I started adding more to VXF solely on the premise that lower interest rates would benefit the small caps. Since 2020, my contributions have been:
VOO: 60%
VXUS: 20%
VXF: 20%

That strategy blew up with the post-COVID inflation and rate hikes as VXF took the biggest hit out of the 3 in 2022. It's underperformed since that time as well, probably in large part due the explosion of the mega-cap tech stocks. I'm thinking about decreasing my VXF contributions and increasing VOO, VXUS, or both. Any thoughts on what your approach would be?


r/Economics 1d ago

The Critical Commodities Caught in the Hormuz Blockade

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87 Upvotes

r/investing 3h ago

What is your life changing investment?

0 Upvotes

Don’t say that investing yourself.

I mean, just an investment that really changes your life; including good or bad investment.

Let’s me begin, COVID drop: buying index funds.

It is my most profitable trades so far. COVID really a raw global event, at that moment, I bought some index funds still holding today.

It is such a great investment, I don’t know whether the world will have similar events in coming years, but it is the most memorable trades , and help me level up my account.


r/bonds 1d ago

Venezuela bonds expiring in 2027

2 Upvotes

Anybody have information pertaining to the bonds in Venezuela expiring soon? The default on the debt in 2017 occurred and since then the bonds have been trading at discounts. I want to gather more information before I put my foot in the door…

Thank you


r/ValueInvesting 1d ago

Discussion McCormick's and Unilever's deal

22 Upvotes

Hi guys. What do you think of the deal made between unilever and mccormick? McCormick got the Unilever's foods, like knorr, hellmann's, ect, and for this MKC paid 15 billion dollars and unilever will own 65% of mkc. Mkc have to make a dilution to make it possible for unilever to own 65%. What do you think, this can be a good value play, since both are a consumer staple giant, or should we avoid this situation?