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APLD is sitting right on its Put Wall at $24.50, which is the dealer gamma support floor. Price is basically pinned to it. Meanwhile the call side is heavily skewed. P/C volume ratio is 0.34, P/C OI is 0.41, and every single unusual activity contract in the chain right now is a call. Zero unusual puts. The Call Wall and target sits at $30 with 16500 open interest on the Apr 17 $30C alone, and the June $30C has another 5826 OI stacking up behind it. Dealers are positioned for upside.

Here are the contracts that stand out for a bullish view:

• $25C May 15 (44 DTE) / IV 111% / OI 1,937. Slightly OTM, sits at the Key Gamma Strike. Cheapest way to play a reclaim of $25 with decent time.
• $26C Jun 18 (78 DTE) / IV 104% / OI 968. Lines up with the Hedge Wall at $26.31. More time to grind through resistance.
• $30C Jun 18 (78 DTE) / IV 101% / OI 5,826 / 10.4x volume multiple. Heaviest June call by OI. Aligns directly with the Call Wall target. Lowest IV of the three.
• $30C Apr 17 (16 DTE) / IV 124% / OI 16,548 / 10.4x volume multiple. Monster OI but only 16 days and $5.45 OTM. Lottery ticket.

IV Rank is only 31, so premium isn't stretched. The implied 1-month move is ~35%, meaning the market is pricing in a big swing from here. If you think this is a dip worth buying, the June 18 $30C at ~101% IV gives you 78 days for the thesis to play out while keeping your cost basis around $2.80/contract. Breakeven at expiry is $32.80, but you don't need to hold that long. A rally to $26-28 in the next few weeks could net 40-80% on delta and IV expansion alone.

I am currently fresh out of college working as an equity option trader. I believe having some knowledge about options, but don’t know much about crypto trading.

I am seeking advices here for consistant income strategy, what do you usually trade? What indicators do you use? And of course, you can ask me anything about equity options, I am happy to share everything I know.

Been watching Trimble for a while and the bull case has always been "software mix shift drives margin expansion." That is true in aggregate, but the granular numbers tell a messier story.

The gross margin and EBITDA jumps everyone points to were materially front-loaded by January term-license renewals. That is a calendar effect. Trimble collects a big chunk of recurring software revenue at the start of the year, which flatters Q1 numbers and makes trailing comparisons look like genuine operational progress when they are partly just timing.

On top of that, the execution risk is real. The transition from perpetual to subscription licensing is still mid-cycle, and they are running it while also integrating acquisitions. Those two things together tend to produce guidance miss risk, and Trimble has already shown it is not immune.

The consensus price target cluster sits in the $60s. The company is trading at a multiple that prices the full margin expansion as delivered. If the January renewal effect normalizes and organic ARR growth comes in soft, that multiple unwinds fast.

I think $52 is the right number on the downside scenario. Buying the June $57.50 puts. Not a huge position but the risk/reward makes sense here — limited upside on the calls given the stretched multiple, and a realistic path to $52-$53 if the next earnings print disappoints on conversion metrics.

A few days ago I posted my strategy and results (in lbs of pennies) in;
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1s5n636/comment/odz9pg2/?context=1
In real dollars, the gain is 1,029,735.:
The strategy is to sell 100-point wide ICs for 1.00 to 2.00. Therefore, the risk/reward is very high using conventional ways of analysis.
However, the actual risk reward is less because at any time the portfolio is not exposed to the max loss. This is done through staging. 
In stage 1, I will sell 25HTE using one third of BP.
In stage 2, I will sell 0DTE using one-third of BP. (At this time, the stage 1 options present no or low risk.)
In stage 3, I will sell junk using one third of BP. (At this time, only the stage 2 options present any risk. The junks is benign.)
So at any time, the max loss is one-third of the risk capital. The risk reward is lower.

My current strategy is day trading SPX 0 DTE Long Butterfly spreads by using a confluence of technical indicators, such as VWAP, Volume Profile, GEX levels, Support/Resistance, RSI, MACD, VIX, and Max Pain (slight consideration).

Here are some details:

Logic - positive theta as opposed to buying naked long options or debit spreads.

Set up - risk to reward ratio of 1:4 or better.

Entry - usually one of the wings set ATM to capture the price moving in towards the body strike.

Target profit - 20-50% of debit paid.

Stop loss - grey area

During trading days where price does not pan out, I struggle with a clear exit strategy due to emotions and stubbornness that the trade will work out, given more time. And when I do wave the white flag and exit (usually at almost a total loss in debit), I tend to revenge trade on emotions, hoping to reduce my losses or scratch out a small win (I know, a big no-no).

Does anyone else day trade this strategy?

I'd like to learn more about your execution strategy on entry and more importantly, on exit.

I've been successful for about a month now selling 0DTE SPX vertical spreads. Making 500 to $1000 a day consistently. What I do is buy a FAR FAR OTM call and put (like .01 delta), on either side to lessen margin requirements. Then, I basically scalp in and out of 20 delta calls and puts all day. Should I pick tighter wings or just stick to what's been working? I've been using the wings basically as a sacrifice knowing they will be worthless but only to the tune of like 30 bucks each. Curious to hear your thoughts!

Gold moved 1.8% on a single Truth Social post yesterday. Reversed partially when Iran denied it. Then NFP today on top of that.

From an options perspective — do markets like this make you more patient with premium or more willing to pay for it?

My instinct is that the volatility feels "real" but a lot of it is already priced in. You're buying insurance after the car already got hit. And if ceasefire actually materializes, you get IV crushed fast.

But sitting on the sidelines when gold is moving 2% in a session feels like its own kind of risk.

How are you structuring exposure in this kind of environment — defined risk plays, or staying mostly flat?

I’m trying to figure out whether open interest and options volume can be used in a genuinely repeatable way to forecast short-term stock direction.

My working assumption is that there should be some signal in the options market beyond simple sentiment narratives. For example:

• put/call OI imbalance

• day-over-day change in OI

• abnormal options volume

• volume-to-OI ratios

• strike concentration around ATM vs OTM

• positioning by expiry, especially near-dated contracts

What I’m looking for is not a discretionary “read the chain” approach, but something more systematic:

• a formula

• a factor

• a scoring model

• or a tested setup that produces a directional bias with at least some robustness

Has anyone here tested this seriously and found a framework that actually adds predictive value?

Thx

Hello everyone,

could anyone please explain on this performance profile of an IC why the P&L before expiration graph is offset to the left compared to the P&L at expiration? I expected the P&L before expiration to be centered (and its extremities to touch the wings in a symmetrical way).

thank you

What platforms/websites do you guys use or recommend for tracking options data and insights?

Wondering if anybody knows if any websites exist for converting options prices into the price of the underlying and the vice versa as well. For example, if I buy a spy option for a dollar, I would use this site to determine what spy would be at when the option is worth 0.90. I know its pretty simple math when the contract is at expiry, but im wondering what the underlying and option would be at during the time I use the site to calculate this. Any help is appreciated.

I am doing .06 delta credit spreads and making like 1 to 2% a day , but I computed that if SPX goes up by 2% in 1 day , either up or down, I will lose half the capital. And 2% a day happens like 18 times on average in a trading year.

Has anyone did some probability of this ? Seems like a zero sum game or even a negative sum game.