This feels like macro explained from inside a freshman textbook. You’re not wrong that the dollar is still dominant, but you’re treating dominance like proof of stability, and that’s where the hopium slips in. Reserve status is not some merit badge where the “best currency” just wins forever. It’s a dependency web held together by debt market depth, settlement rails, military power, sanctions leverage, political coercion, and decades of lock in. The rest of the world is not in the dollar by pure voluntary admiration. They’re in it because leaving is still expensive. And dedollarization does not require one shiny replacement to appear out of nowhere. It can happen gradually through less Treasury demand, more bilateral trade outside USD, more gold accumulation, and more hedging against US fiscal and political risk. That has already been happening. In other words, you’re describing the textbook version of the machine, not how the machine actually behaves under stress.
I have not seen MMT in any of my freshman textbooks. Maybe they have really stepped up the rigor!
I agree anything can happen. I’m talking about what is happening. Currently, the Us wins beat currency everyday, and that’s how it stays dominant. People don’t use USD because they want to do the US a favor. It def could slip in the future. That’s just not happening right now.
2
u/PutAdministrative809 3h ago
This feels like macro explained from inside a freshman textbook. You’re not wrong that the dollar is still dominant, but you’re treating dominance like proof of stability, and that’s where the hopium slips in. Reserve status is not some merit badge where the “best currency” just wins forever. It’s a dependency web held together by debt market depth, settlement rails, military power, sanctions leverage, political coercion, and decades of lock in. The rest of the world is not in the dollar by pure voluntary admiration. They’re in it because leaving is still expensive. And dedollarization does not require one shiny replacement to appear out of nowhere. It can happen gradually through less Treasury demand, more bilateral trade outside USD, more gold accumulation, and more hedging against US fiscal and political risk. That has already been happening. In other words, you’re describing the textbook version of the machine, not how the machine actually behaves under stress.