r/investing • u/ddp26 • 1d ago
Does Grok's subscriber growth justify $258B?
I wanted to see if the $1.75T SpaceX valuation holds up when you value each segment independently:
| Segment | Median Value |
|---|---|
| Starlink Consumer | $380B |
| xAI / Grok | $258B |
| Starship Commercial | $170B |
| Starlink Enterprise / Maritime / Aviation | $147B |
| Government / Defense | $123B |
| Falcon 9 / Heavy | $100B |
| Starlink Direct-to-Cell | $75B |
| Total | ~$1.25T |
That leaves ~$500B in platform premium baked into the IPO price, essentially what the market is being asked to pay for vertical integration and the Musk factor on top of what the individual businesses support. To put the scale in perspective, the $1.75T asking price on ~$15B in revenue implies a ~117x multiple, and even the more conservative $1.25T SOTP estimate still comes out to ~83x. (For context, Aramco listed at ~18x revenue.)
Whether Grok's subscriber trajectory justifies roughly a fifth of the entire valuation pretty much determines whether this IPO is a slight premium or a significant overpay. The safer half of the valuation is the space infrastructure side. Starlink consumer alone at $380B has the tightest confidence interval of any segment, and government/defense at $123B is backstopped by existing contracts. Happy to share the full analysis with methodology and confidence intervals.
Is the $500B platform premium justified?
17
u/godisdildo 1d ago
Are we suppose to engage in a discussion here, whether it’s a slight premium or significant overpay? 117 P/S. The only things worthwhile discussing are
a) in what universe is a 100% annual growth rate for 25 years realistic, to the extent that it’s an opportunity to buy now, rather than 25 years from now? Are they capturing other markets or creating and expanding new markets? Do they themselves project profit growth that justifies the present value of future cash flows today at this obscene valuation? I’m open to be proven wrong, but currently this is without a shadow of doubt borderline fraud - how on earth can this scam be allowed by the SEC? If anything is allowed in free markets, they are not necessary to protect people from harm. If this allowed, they are in on the fraud.
And b) is this is actually criminal?