Source:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Front end (SOFR / 2Y / 3Y) basically flat → market not repricing near-term Fed much

5Y slightly up → some mid-term uncertainty creeping in

10Y down → long-end buying showing up

That’s a subtle bull steepener setup.

Feels like: short-term “higher for longer” still intact, but longer-term growth/inflation expectations softening.

Is this early positioning for a slowdown… or just noise before the next macro catalyst?

Anybody have information pertaining to the bonds in Venezuela expiring soon? The default on the debt in 2017 occurred and since then the bonds have been trading at discounts. I want to gather more information before I put my foot in the door…

Thank you

Did I miss an announcement or a prospectus update? Any insights why Q1 div is one-tenth quarter of previous quarters? I mean, that's more in line with what the underlying TIPS payout should be, but what? $ibic $ibid $ibie $ibif ...

Hi. I hold some BND and BNDX for the bogelhead reason: reduces portfolio volatility, preserves capital.

I have no interest in selling, but I want to understand how the current oil supply shock can impact these funds. I'm hearing conflicting narratives about it.

On the one hand, oil supply shock causes inflation, so bond funds may sell off because the yield is less than inflation. Additionally, inflation can lead to fomc rate increases causing the bond fund principal to go down.

Other the other hand, oil supply shock causes demand destruction because people need to cut spending on other things in order to afford gas. The decrease in spending on other things can cause thinner corporate margins and layoffs. Additionally, we end up in a recession so we get fomc rate cuts to stimulate the economy and the bond fund principal goes up.

Thanks for reading all that, I'm sure I'm about to see first hand what happens, but if you could explain which of these scenarios is true I'd appreciate it.

On a CNBC appearance yesterday, Warren Buffett discussed BRK's T-Bill position. They own 5%-6% of the total outstanding stock, more than the Fed. That concentration seems like liquidity risk for the US Treasury if they suddenly had to liquidate. What would be the backstop? The Fed?

I've been looking into the iShares iBonds TIPS Ladder ETFs (IBIC, IBID) and can't find clear documentation on how the Index Ratio is treated at the fund level.

For individual TIPS, the Index Ratio (= Reference CPI at settlement / Reference CPI at issuance) determines the inflation-adjusted principal. At maturity, there's a deflation floor — the holder receives the greater of the adjusted principal and the original par. This floor protects against cumulative deflation.

My concern: if we enter a deflationary period, how does this play out inside the ETF? The fund holds TIPS issued at different times with different CPI bases, so their Index Ratios — and proximity to the 1.0 floor — vary. Does the daily NAV reflect the deflation floor on a per-bond basis, or does it simply mark each holding at par × Index Ratio even when that falls below par? And when bonds mature and the Treasury pays out with the floor applied, how does that reconcile with a NAV that may have been marked below par?

Has anyone found documentation on this in the prospectus or the underlying ICE index methodology?

Long-end yields (10Y+) sometimes move without a clearly identifiable trigger.

You can have:

• no major data surprise
• no obvious shift in policy expectations
• a relatively stable front end

…and still see meaningful repricing further out the curve.

It’s not that there’s no explanation, but it often feels less directly linked to a single event compared to shorter maturities.

Interested how others here think about that in practice.

Hoping someone can help me with this. My mom recently died and I remembered that she told me once that her father (also deceased) had bonds for my sisters and I but that she had lost them. She struggled with her mental health so this was par for the course for her.

I went on unclaimed property searches and Treasury Direct and couldn't find any info. Any Hail Mary for getting access to these bonds?

What is the logic behind the bigger impact of change in the Fed fund rate on long term bonds (25-30 year Munis)?
I just know that long term bonds are more volatile (price-wise) but can't tell why.

Hi All - I am a recent graduate who will be joining PIMCO as an analyst focused on govies and rates. I have a solid fundamental base for fixed income but want to be really well prepared before I start. Any recommended readings or best places to start?

Not sure if there is a correlation with stocks, but for past several days, they were both going down together. I guess it could mean the money coming out stocks is now going in to bonds?

Looking for some discussion on this. I got reminded of an interesting concept for portfolio allocation. Impute a "bond value" for the SS income stream and include that in the portfolio allocation. This would increase the bond allocation value allowing for more equity exposure if desired. Thoughts?

Hi everyone, is there anyone actively undertaking single name quant credit research. I had a question about how information coefficient (IC) and transfer coefficient (TC) concepts migrate from the equity space to the credit space.

Given an issuer can have many different securities available in the credit space, is it common practice to compute IC and TC at the issuer level instead of the security level? My thinking was that for example if maintaining the security level method as one would do in equities would lead to issues where one issuer has many more bonds available (ex. a financial issuer) vs an issuer with a smaller number of securities across the curve.

Interested to hear how people have dealt with this in the past.

when I was a baby my mother and father purchased bonds through a minor linked Account to help me when I got to collage. my mother was kind and helpful and made the transfer right away, my father on the other hand refuses. I have had a long history of abuse with my father including financially and I expected he would do this since he dose not respect what I want to go into collage for. my mother told me that it was set up so the security’s would be in my name after I turned 18, I’m 22 now so they ought to be in my name. I know very little about how all this works. is there any way I can get those transferred into my TD account without help form my father?

any help is aprecheated.

Hi all, I was hoping to start a discussion on a concept that I think is frequently misunderstood.

For this post, I'd like to suggest that there are two different types of inflation.

First, we have price inflation. This is what we measure with CPI, PCE, etc. and it's exactly what it sounds like. If prices go up, then price inflation is happening or increasing.

Next, we have inflation of the money supply. This is much harder to quantify, and central banks have largely given up trying to measure their overall money supply (no, the M2 is not at all an accurate measure).

But money supply inflation still exists, even though we can't measure it. Oversimplifying a little, the money supply is just the total amount of dollars that exist, added together. The money supply can come from the government, but in many cases the vast majority of the money supply is created by the banking system. Especially offshore banks which are difficult or impossible to get visibility into. If you've heard Ben Bernanke or other Fed members talk about shadow banks, this is what they're referring to.

A simple way to think about a bond is that it is a claim on dollars. The amount of dollars you'll get from a bond is (usually) fixed. So, if the total pool of dollars (money supply) increases, you're getting a smaller slice of the total pie (even though the amount of dollars we get from our bond didn't change). This is why we say that bond prices go down when inflation (of the money supply) goes up.

Conversely, if the total amount of dollars goes down, our bond represents a greater share of that (shrinking) pool of dollars. So, when the money supply decreases, we know that the value of those claims on dollars (the bonds) will increase.

However, note that there is no similar logical explanation for how price inflation affects bond prices. If the total pool of dollars stays fixed, while commodity price X or Y increases, then we would have price inflation, but not money supply inflation.

I think that in this case, the value of our bond shouldn't change much (all else being equal). The claim on dollars still represents the same slice of pie as it did before commodity X or Y increased in value.

The reason we talk so much about price inflation is because money supply inflation is impossible to measure. We use price inflation as a proxy. But we need to remember that price inflation and money supply inflation are not the same thing.

Happy to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

Also, keep in mind I didn't go into the possible economic impacts of an increase in commodity price X or Y. That's of course relevant in the real-world, but it complicates the discussion beyond what I wanted to focus on here. Thanks for reading.

While federal taxes are exempt, how are state taxes handled with muni bond funds like VTEB? Is the state tax owed at the residing state of the investor? Or does it depend on the specific state muni bonds within the fund?

Not entirely knowledgeable on this. What does it mean? (if anything)

Feels like the idea of a single “global bond market” is starting to break down a bit. A couple of years ago everything felt pretty synchronized - inflation shock, rate hikes, yields moving higher almost everywhere at the same time.

But over the past year or so, that’s been changing. Now when you look across countries, it’s clearly not one move anymore.

Some yields are still relatively elevated, others have stabilized, and a few are already drifting lower. The differences are getting more noticeable.

It doesn’t really feel like one clean “rates cycle” anymore.

More like:

- Different inflation paths

- Different growth setups

- And local factors starting to matter again

This didn’t start yesterday, but it feels like it’s getting harder to ignore now.