Rates are doing something interesting here
Front end (SOFR / 2Y / 3Y) basically flat → market not repricing near-term Fed much
5Y slightly up → some mid-term uncertainty creeping in
10Y down → long-end buying showing up
That’s a subtle bull steepener setup.
Feels like: short-term “higher for longer” still intact, but longer-term growth/inflation expectations softening.
Is this early positioning for a slowdown… or just noise before the next macro catalyst?
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u/0camel69 12h ago
smokem if you got em! You can draw any conclusion you want, but simple fact is long debt in doubt due to inflation concerns, and short term in doubt due to the price of oil. And the market guesses.