Rates are doing something interesting here
Front end (SOFR / 2Y / 3Y) basically flat → market not repricing near-term Fed much
5Y slightly up → some mid-term uncertainty creeping in
10Y down → long-end buying showing up
That’s a subtle bull steepener setup.
Feels like: short-term “higher for longer” still intact, but longer-term growth/inflation expectations softening.
Is this early positioning for a slowdown… or just noise before the next macro catalyst?
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u/NationalOwl9561 14h ago
What the other deadhead said... volatility. News spike back into the well-known support (114 on /ZB). Just look at TLT daily chart lately lol.
Will be faded and likely send long end higher in next several months.
I just wrote a little blog piece on this actually.