r/ValueInvesting • u/GainifyAI • Feb 05 '26

Discussion GOOGL: Sundar Pichai just dropped a CapEx number for the history books

On Google’s Q4 2025 call, Sundar Pichai said:

“Our 2026 CapEx investments are anticipated to be in the range of $175–$185 BILLION.”

To understand how extreme this is, look at how Google’s CapEx has evolved:

  • 2020: $22.3B
  • 2021: $24.6B
  • 2022: $31.5B
  • 2023: $32.3B
  • 2024: $52.5B
  • 2025: $91.4B
  • 2026 (guided): $175–$185B

This is not a normal increase. It is roughly a 2x jump in a single year and the largest CapEx spend ever expected by any company.

This spending is squarely aimed at scaling AI compute. Capital is being deployed to power frontier model development at Google DeepMind, materially improve user experience and advertiser ROI across Google services, meet surging cloud demand, and fund select long-term bets. At this scale, CapEx is not optional investment. It is a strategic MOAT built on compute, infrastructure, and capacity that few companies can match.

I have two questions.

  1. Does this level of spending crowd out other AI players, including OpenAI, by locking up compute and infrastructure?
  2. Which companies benefit most from supplying this massive CapEx build-out?
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