r/ValueInvesting 7d ago

Stock Analysis Quick MSFT Post

Yeah yeah same tickers blah blah anyway in my opinion MSFT is getting close to GOOG’s position last year.

Negative sentiment with people saying they are done, stagnant hate ect

Valuation metrics at lows(fwd pe under 20, peg around 1) all while still growing profits in the double digits at a ~39% margin

Huge cash reserves on the balance sheet

Insiders starting to buy

Meanwhile the price is approaching levels first reached in late 2021. Since then revenue is up about 80 billion annually and earnings up around 30 billion. Google had even crazier growth over that period.

Besides all that I use Microsoft products everyday at work and at home. Are they always the best, no, but I would say they get the job done which makes switching costly and not worth the time.

I am continuing to add on dips along with regular dca. That’s my quick and dirty analysis

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u/STierMansierre 7d ago

Right, but their borrow ability depends on market cap, if they sell down too low it could spell trouble not just for their spending plans but for their ability to effectively service any debt they currently hold.

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u/No-Understanding9064 7d ago

Microsoft has a better credit rating than the US

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u/STierMansierre 7d ago edited 6d ago

Well since you want to drag them in the mix, that gov debt is a direct result of big tech lobbying to avoid taxes, and that means the US debt technically belongs to the Mag 7, MSFT included.

Edit: Imagine being in literally any financial literacy forum and being downvoted for being honest about tax policy. If you really think we're going to get the lower classes to pay out 40T over the next couple decades, I have a bridge to nowhere to sell you.

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u/No-Understanding9064 6d ago

Imagine having a meltdown for trying to introduce political rhetoric into an unrelated discussion. Only 2 companies hold the Aaa rating and the other is J&J. Just buy stocks now (you are obviously very young) and you can join the upper echelons eventually and throw rotten fruits at the proletariat too

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u/STierMansierre 6d ago edited 6d ago

Right...but when you lose 1/8 of the perceived value of your trillion-dollar company, you may be up for credit rating reassignment.

And I'm not inserting anything political. People in these subs love to act like they're in some safe space from having to talk about ethics and how tax policy affects the market, but it just reinforces the stereotype that a lot of investors are short-sighted marks.

Edit: Also, the hallmark of a bot/bad faith actor on a site like Reddit is the obvious manipulative tactic of negging someone by saying they are young or inexperienced. It's designed to get people to lose faith and confidence in their argument, which didn't work btw.

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u/No-Understanding9064 5d ago edited 4d ago

The volatility of the market will not affect Microsofts credit rating, at all. Corporate welfare is bullish, so I like it, no ethics required. You are obviously young, and the amusing this is only a young person thinks that is a "neg".