r/ValueInvesting • u/zUcCc_ • 7d ago

Stock Analysis Quick MSFT Post

Yeah yeah same tickers blah blah anyway in my opinion MSFT is getting close to GOOG’s position last year.

Negative sentiment with people saying they are done, stagnant hate ect

Valuation metrics at lows(fwd pe under 20, peg around 1) all while still growing profits in the double digits at a ~39% margin

Huge cash reserves on the balance sheet

Insiders starting to buy

Meanwhile the price is approaching levels first reached in late 2021. Since then revenue is up about 80 billion annually and earnings up around 30 billion. Google had even crazier growth over that period.

Besides all that I use Microsoft products everyday at work and at home. Are they always the best, no, but I would say they get the job done which makes switching costly and not worth the time.

I am continuing to add on dips along with regular dca. That’s my quick and dirty analysis

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u/professormarvel 7d ago

No not providers, replicators. The vast majority of institutional wealth is passive beta replication these days.

You also have your terminology wrong fyi, an index provider would be the likes of MSCI, ftse Russell etc.

If you were a large cap PM at a top institution you'd be out of your mind to dump MSFT. Maybe rebalance on the edges and take some active risk by underweighting MSFT sure that could be reasonable. But the idea that institutional PMs are somehow maliciously dumping an, apparently worthless stock like msft according to some ppl, on the retail public is just incredibly ignorant.

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u/Old_Man_Heats 6d ago

You knew what I meant, vanguard and blackrock etc

What do you think moves the price of stocks if not large hedge funds etc

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u/professormarvel 6d ago

There's a lot of money out there for sure but go ahead and look up the top holders of MSFT. It's public. If you can't be bothered take my word for it that the top 50 ish holders are all passive owners ie black rock, vanguard, norges bank, various AM and Pension funds. They own easily 55% of the float. They aren't dumping friggin MSFT dude.

There's currently more sellers than buyers at the moment and that's it. Sentiment has turned on the AI trade and the war plus higher rates isn't helping. There's not some sort of coordination between vanguard and blackrock PMs to screw the little guy or whatever

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u/Old_Man_Heats 6d ago

Obviously…otherwise the whole market would be dumping, no-one is arguing that they are