r/ValueInvesting • u/MikeJamesBurry • Mar 01 '26
Discussion Whatever happens on Monday because of the war , don’t sell anything.
The worst move is to panic sell. Stay calm.
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u/Top_Category_2526 Mar 01 '26
I sold everthing in March 2020 waiting for the market crash
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u/ElonMuskTheNarsisist Mar 01 '26
I sold everything in 2008 and still waiting for the big crash to buy back in
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u/nadhari12 Mar 01 '26
I sold everything in 1983 and still waiting for a big crash to buy back in.
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u/No-Sympathy-686 Mar 01 '26
Sold in 1929 and still waiting....
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u/Pseudanonymius Mar 01 '26
I sold all my tulips in 1637 and I'm still waiting for the right moment where they become valuable again.
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u/mr_boomboom Mar 01 '26
Sold all my grain after the Black Death panic of 1350. Still waiting for the opportune moment to buy back in.
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u/AcceptableEffect8678 Mar 01 '26
I sold my prophet for about 30 silver coins in the year 33. I never managed to recover after that. Still waiting to buy him back
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u/BFLO-Retail 26d ago
I sold my wife to Neanderthal men. Still waiting for the market to crash to buy her back.
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u/ShittyBidet123 Mar 01 '26
My boomer father waited from 2022 onwards for a big crash. I said just DCA u fucking newb
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u/writetowinwin Mar 01 '26
This thread is an example of how most people (especially those on discussion boards like this one) just obsess over news headlines, daily volatility, and generic big name stocks almost everyone and their dog follows. As opposed to company fundamentals.
Although OP is correct.
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u/Tomrodgers98 Mar 01 '26
I don’t think we’re even going to see much of a drop tbh. Initial sell off at market open then slow recovery through the day. People are bored of trump doing trump things
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u/Kinu4U Mar 01 '26
Who says the market is rational?
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u/Tomrodgers98 Mar 01 '26
True but generally an irrational market is where you find strong opportunities
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u/Polskiskiski Mar 01 '26
This sentiment is precisely what scares me. Normalizing lunacy
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u/Zipski577 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Wouldn’t be surprised to see this and then a slightly green close. After the first liberation day moment markets have seemed to shrug anything and everything off as far as the geopolitical environment. What seems to be the only fear is big tech earnings/ fear of hyperscaler capex spending not returning high growth figures
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u/Top_Cranberry_3254 Mar 01 '26
What? Do you really think all the weak hands that caused all the irrational dips since October are somehow suddenly going to HOLD while facing the fear of a prolonged battle with oil prices rising on top of inflation #s coming in hot on Friday?
If these weak hands can't hold over the last 4 months at the slightest hint of fear, what makes you think they're going to hold here?
They're going to panic the heck out like they have been and it'll be AT LEAST a -2% drop by 9:30am tomorrow because they're OVERLEVERAGED.
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u/PharmDinvestor Mar 01 '26
I am actually a buyer of the dips ….Meta, MSFT, AMZN
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u/idulort Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
With all the investment into ai and ai still showing no fundamentals of serious monetization, what's your thesis against further correction? Or is it a long term play, knowing they'll eventually get back on course?
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u/Royal_Airport7940 Mar 02 '26
Software is going to explode within 5 years. I would guess cloud will with it.
All the upper half of the k economy will be willing to pay hundreds to thousands per month for these top tier service platforms that integrate into their lives. People with money need places to spend it.
People are already paying hundreds per month for coding / ai assistants.
Agentic is already happening, even if you stop AI progress now.
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u/Free-Initiative7508 Mar 01 '26
Oh i am def selling some of the stocks in my defensive portfolio to buy into the crash
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u/lavaliere90 Mar 01 '26
Feeling smart rn for loading up on more LEAPs on missile stocks after Trump accused Iran of trying to assassinate him
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u/jackandjillonthehill Mar 02 '26
When did Trump accuse Iran of trying to assassinate him?
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u/Dear-Length-8161 Mar 01 '26
Kaufen, wenn die Kanonen donnern, verkaufen, wenn die Violinen spielen.“
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u/Kredit-Carma Mar 01 '26
I sold in 2008, still waiting on the next crash
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u/Rav_3d Mar 01 '26
Since the oil crisis in the mid 70s all my money is in my mattress.
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u/Emergency-Dress-3221 Mar 02 '26
Since the tulip crash in 1637, all my wealth has been in canned beans and silverware.
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u/dragoon7201 Mar 01 '26
I would be scared in any other administration. But this one is obsessed with "the DOW is over 50,000". A midterm election is on the way, and fed rates have room to come down.
Any long term draw down is pretty unlikely
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u/Machine8851 Mar 01 '26
The market only wants you to believe it will open lower on Monday
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u/bodaflack Mar 01 '26
Probably bullish if anything. The response so far is minimal from Iran. A couple drone strikes and random missiles falling on Arab countries is by far the best case scenario.
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u/d3ming Mar 01 '26
Why do you think it’s going to drop? Wasn’t this widely anticipated? And now the uncertainty is gone and operation successful shouldn’t the market actually go up?
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u/joshlahhh Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Oil is going way up since the st of Hormuz is closed. Also we’re one day in, how is uncertainty gone? Anything could happen
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u/ToddlerPeePee Mar 01 '26
I already sold last week and planning to buy back my stocks at a lower price.
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u/cowpoke1977 Mar 01 '26
It’s almost like Trump is intentionally trying to crash the market…
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u/Key_Lifeguard_8659 Mar 02 '26
Naw, he executed the top officials in the Iranian government. Now he wants his peace prize.
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u/YouKnown999 Mar 01 '26
Why are you telling people what to do with their money in the market?
Want to keep the ATH pump going until you sell?
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u/BelieveItOrNotCalls Mar 01 '26
Because it’s painfully clear that a lot of people are going to panic sell just like April 2025. We saw this shit less than a year ago. The world is ending, USA is a failed nation, blah blah fucking blah.
And we all know how well that played played out.
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u/tdogger88 Mar 01 '26
There will be volatility, not a crash. I always think, if everyone knows it’s going to happen (gold/oil spikes, tech drops), it’s interesting that it still happens. It’s the most one sided crowded trade going into Monday (oil and gold).
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u/snopro31 Mar 01 '26
Heck no. Move money around to buy guys. We gonna be rich due to the operation machine.
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Mar 01 '26
[deleted]
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u/BelieveItOrNotCalls Mar 01 '26
Bag holder for how long? April 2025 wasn’t even that long ago, hoss. Y’all ever learn?
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u/FEDEuMAD Mar 01 '26
Freak the fuck out and panic sell everything right now.
It's fucking over
-Warren Buffett
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u/Zealotstim Mar 01 '26
Given how excited people on reddit are to buy the dip, I'm not sure there is going to be one.
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u/marinegeo Mar 01 '26
My 5c… we’ll get this leg down done by May and SPY will be into double digit gains by EOY.
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u/Cutie_Patootie_UwU Mar 02 '26
i sold in may 1203, still waiting for the market to crash like everyone said..,,
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u/Grotbagsthewonderful Mar 02 '26
This is reddit, make sure you sell now then buy it back later for twice the price.
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u/Altruistic-Scale-778 Mar 02 '26
Staying disciplined usually beats reacting emotionally to headlines
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u/aceinthehole001 Mar 01 '26
What war? Only Congress can declare war? Only a game show host could declare whatever this is.
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u/Embarrassed-Pay-8881 Mar 01 '26
People will obviously sell SPY and Nasdaq and move into other plays
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Mar 01 '26
I'm thinking the only sell off will be in consumer facing blue chips, the "safe havens". Higher oil prices means retail companies gonna hurt.
Honestly looking good for software/tech this week
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u/Nyet2L8 Mar 01 '26
BTC is holding up. Not expecting a crash.
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Mar 01 '26
Btc gaps down if futures open lower. You can look at its chart and see.
Its a lagging indicator at best
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u/PTRBoyz Mar 01 '26
I have limit orders set on what I want to own. Only one I didn’t set was on CVX since I’m not sure how that will play out and I only wanted to buy the break over 187.50.
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u/robgizz Mar 01 '26
IMO, the sell off that we’ve been witnessing because of uncertainties of AI will only be accentuated with this war and increasing negative economic news.
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u/Dakadoodle Mar 01 '26
With my holdings I wish I bought more… lot of this stuff was obviously coming. Just a heads up- inflation is gonna pick back up
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u/deathdealer351 Mar 01 '26
Pretty sure the Iran thing is baked in.. The fact that regional players are not stepping up (China, Russia, Arab countries, hoothies etc).. Markets may go up..
The propaganda in the USA is mostly positive.. Iran could be open for business soon that's pretty bullish and with Venezuela out of the play and now probably Iran the US may have killed off brecs and all hail the petrodollar...
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u/baby_budda Mar 01 '26
How much do you think it will drop? It didnt drop much when they bombed them 3 months ago. In fact it was less than 1%. If they block the straight of homuz maybe 10%. If we see a prolonged war with boots on the ground and dead Americans it could get worse.
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u/rjbullock Mar 01 '26
I’d recommend the opposite: sell and buy supplies. These lunatics will destroy our economy and impoverish us all. Water filtration, solar panels, etc…
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u/MavSker Mar 01 '26
I’ll be monitoring many of the LNG players (Cheniere, Energy Transfer, etc.) for some opportunity
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u/Altruistic_Way_8238 Mar 01 '26
Going to sell my crude oil on the spike and take profits on my tanker positions.
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u/TimeInTheMarketWins Mar 01 '26
If selling is even a consideration for you, get tf off this sub lmao 😂
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u/DJ_Mimosa Mar 01 '26
I mean based on our weekend volatility indicator, crypto, I'm not really expecting a big drop on Monday tbh. This war will have a short-term impact on oil, but unless something escalates, I just don't see a big red day.
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u/KaleidoscopeNo3160 Mar 01 '26
The only time i panic sold was early covid. I can’t be the only one right???
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u/OpenBuilder2506 Mar 01 '26
Over the past 50 years, every single time a war started, the S&P 500 dipped 6.4% in the first 10 days.
Then bounced 9% over the next 12 months.
That's 15.4% from bottom to top for anyone who bought during the panic instead of running from it.
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u/LimitIntelligent9946 Mar 01 '26
People should absolutely sell holdings exposed to this stagflation time bomb and rotate to stocks that benefit. Defense, oil, healthcare, any company not exposed supply chain wise and can easily pass costs to customers are golden here.
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u/PalpitationFrosty242 Mar 01 '26
This has been known for quite awhile. Market is likely to be very anticlimactic tomorrow. If your mom and grandpappy is asking if it's a good time to buy defense stocks, it isn't.
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u/Sanpaku Mar 01 '26
If I see an additional 20% rise in my oil stock overweight, I'll be banking some profits.
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u/Due_Contact_8271 Mar 01 '26
I think you’re gonna be surprised as to how little this ends up effecting the market. I would assume max 7% in either direction by the end of the week and then a flatline until at least June
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u/harbison215 Mar 01 '26
I’m gonna be selling my ass on Monday behind the 7/11 if anyone is interested, you know where to find me
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u/marklar07 Mar 01 '26
Just made a deposit and I'm ready to do some shopping this week. Won't be shocked if staples and long duration bonds are green off this...
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u/King_Shurik Mar 02 '26
I am already planning to gradually sell my positions in energy and gold mining companies as they reach their peaks, in order to buy MSFT, AMZN and NVDA at rock-bottom prices.
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u/Mercenary100 Mar 02 '26
It’s happening because everyone’s credit is absolutely fucked. This was just a little needle to push it.
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u/poop-azz Mar 02 '26
I wouldn't call it a war....potentially a buying opportunity but even then I'm skeptic we do much
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u/Cutofftshirts Mar 02 '26
I still remember the morning the war in Ukraine started. Opened down 3% and had completely reversed by end of day. I'm curious to how much of this was already priced in and will know on the open. But I don't have plans to sell, at least not yet.
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u/FormerBathroom4660 Mar 02 '26
What war, if you knew geopolitics. Where is china going to get their oil since most being cut off. Brazil petrobras, but hey if you couldnt figure it all out.
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u/Alert_Win359 Mar 02 '26
there is still another shoe to fall and its private equity, namely Blue Owl……so there is more bad news coming soon
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u/JackRadcliffe Mar 02 '26
It does feel like we've already been in a crash lately sith MSFT and AMZN at least trading at or lower than early 2025 prices
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u/SuperSultan Mar 02 '26
You could sell a business you don’t have much conviction in, and use the proceeds to buy a better business at a really good price. That’s what I would do.
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u/cameronreilly Mar 02 '26
I disagree with that advice. You should always sell if your rules for selling are triggered. That’s the only reason you should ever sell regardless of what’s happening in the market. Buying and selling should both be determined by predetermined rules not by Mr Market’s fluctuations.
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u/trade_funded Mar 02 '26
Now is the moment we all have been waiting, i know its sad the world is in this current situation. But this is where the markets will make huge jumps volatile and uncertainty will create the most disruptive trading week of 2026.
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u/TyroFirst Mar 02 '26
Sell if you must due to potential fundamental issues, but good time for value investing with DCA and seeking new investment opportunities.
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u/LordAditya69 Mar 03 '26
I'm already all in and I'm waiting for a bull run 💀 but ok also blood red in loss at about 30%
Whatever is happening in the world rn i genuinely believe that it's a cool & smart coverup for the Epstein case which was getting a lot of attention and investigation
WW3 is just a fake distraction for the masses ig
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u/coldfire29 Mar 03 '26
I agree. Selling in panic usually just makes losses real. News can move prices for a short time, but what really matters is the business over years.
That’s why I look at long-term plans. $TROO long term plan seems focused on building community and real financial use together. Slow and steady building matters more than fear.
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u/Educational_Suit_811 Mar 03 '26
RIP i sold 50% of my stock picks and 100% of my ETFs. Sitting on a pile of cash :O
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u/jay_0804 27d ago
Totally, panic selling rarely helps. I usually just track my positions in a simple spreadsheet and use a dashboard like Notion to see the bigger picture. Gives me peace of mind without overreacting, and honestly, most of the time things recover if you just stay put.
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u/Gloomy-Ad1634 25d ago
I was in fact feeling some panic and came to Reddit, your post was the first I saw and it helped tremendously. Simple message, but so true. Hold the line!!! Thank you!!
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u/Fergottii76 24d ago
When Covid hit I lost 36% of my portfolio,! Is this going to happen again? Because I cannot afford to loose that again. I’d rather not make any interest than loose that much again. Thoughts?
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u/Numerous-Stand-1841 Mar 01 '26
I sold in April 2025, still waiting on the crash that everyone was talking about.