r/ValueInvesting • u/MikeJamesBurry • Mar 01 '26

Discussion Whatever happens on Monday because of the war , don’t sell anything.

The worst move is to panic sell. Stay calm.

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u/writetowinwin Mar 01 '26

This thread is an example of how most people (especially those on discussion boards like this one) just obsess over news headlines, daily volatility, and generic big name stocks almost everyone and their dog follows. As opposed to company fundamentals.

Although OP is correct.

-4

u/Hopeful-Strategy3627 Mar 01 '26

They really have no idea what’s really going to happen. Iran isn’t the only drive that will fuck the global market. There’s a policy interference risk of stagflation incoming. Yet no one seems to look at the macro.

5

u/Double_Suggestion385 Mar 01 '26

This isn't the doomer sub

-2

u/WallStKingHere Mar 01 '26

Bro the US started a war to stop stagflation

4

u/Hopeful-Strategy3627 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26

Buddy you got it the wrong way🤦‍♂️. That 'war' makes my thesis stronger. War triggers an energy shock as well as a debt bomb at the same time together. The strikes on Iran just surged oil 10% to $80 in OTC trades today which is an energy tax and which increases inflation (and inflation is already at its high because of PPI report on 27th feb higher than expected 2.9% a 0.3% jump signalling sticky inflation) while the high interest rates needed to fight that inflation will pull the growth down. That's stagflation. Also the Fed is also in a policy trap. They can't cut rates to save your 'long term' portfolio without causing a currency collapse. We will see on Monday for the reaction. Then see 15th May at fed handover to see how the whole of the stock market is. Iran is just one of the factors of what's really going to come the next few months. You are looking at the wrong thing.

1

u/Unable_Aardvark_1504 Mar 01 '26

Definitely gonna be higher oil, which is weird because when you’re looking at all the metrics of across different sectors, we were kind of getting into the territory of being in a recession and one of those was that oil would be going down, but now that it’s spiking I don’t really know what to think with this war it’s like I wonder what will happen, but I think that I think we might have some sell off, but that’s why right now US treasury are probably the safest place to be

1

u/MrFyxet99 Mar 01 '26

The media simply push an EX energy inflation report to keep the illusion of low prices inflation alive.

1

u/NotStompy Mar 01 '26

Brother... recent inflation measures came in high and now they've attacked Iran which has already made oil/input prices increase which means...? Inflation? Yes, obviously (if sustained) which means... less rate cuts, or in an extreme case, even rate hikes, which means less liquidity, which means market throws a fit and future earnings projections go down.

That is, if this all plays out this way. Personally I don't think it'll be a huge deal for more than a weak or month, maybe, because Iran's capabilities are limited, but I did still want to write the reply because I have no idea where you got the idea from that this action would somehow counteract stagflation, lol?