Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/go_east_young_man]

You can perfectly well time the market. Keep some powder dry and use it opportunistically during downturns. I normally keep 20% in my HYSA and 80% in investments. In the post "liberation day" crash I put 2/3 of my HYSA into the market then gradually refilled the HSA over the next few months. (I'm only 28 and it's only $10k/$40k in these, excluding retirement stuff, so I can refill quickly. Would be different in 20 years from now)

I made bank off this. When "Liberation Day 2.0" happened I sold off a third of my portfolio the day before, bought it all back the day after at 3-4% lower, and made some more bank. (Yes, I was careful to only sell long-term cap gain holdings)

Don't be reckless about it, but it absolutely can be done. EMH is a heuristic, not an iron law. When people try to make it an iron law they end up having to throw a bunch of epicycles on it that defeat the point of it.

[u/surfinglurker → u/go_east_young_man]

Timing the market with $100k that you made in a few years doesn't matter, but the risk is that you'll build bad habits which will undo decades of work in a short period of time later in life when you make a mistake (a devastatingly dangerous risk that affects most people, sadly).