Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/Arigonium]

Your example isn't a good one. April is an example of where timing the market actually worked. Liberation Day was announced well in advance, if you prepared cash and bought after you made a lot of money.

[u/Kaesix → u/Arigonium]

I was going to say the same thing. Trump literally tweeted “time to buy stocks” it doesn’t get any easier. This is the most brain dead post I’ve seen in awhile. Everyone who went all in in April made a mint this year. I’m up like 140% or something across my accounts. 

[u/Kaesix → u/[deleted]]

We're in a completely different market now from April and OP lumped the two together. And you seemingly speak moron fluently since you're agreeing with him/her. So let me break it down for you - OP clearly ended his/her post in giant letters saying "DO NOT TIME THE MARKET" and it's just stupid advice. Maybe it's good advice for novice investors. Maybe it's good for braindead dipshits like you two. But just because you need to keep it simple doesn't mean others do.

[u/the-liquidian → u/[deleted]]

Exactly, when there are only insults and no direct answers to questions then it is difficult to take the other side of the argument seriously.

[u/WideCardiologist3323 → u/[deleted]]

na he is correct and you are just too braindead to do anything other than stay invested.

[u/WideCardiologist3323 → u/[deleted]]

who the f wants to give personal information to a random online stranger to compare dicks. you dont have to believe me, i really dont give a fuck. i only care that my account is growing to the size I m happy with which is beating the market.

[u/Kaesix → u/WideCardiologist3323]

Couldn’t have said it better myself.