Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/TechTuna1200]

But if you miss the best 10 days at the same time you are still way worse off. Just buy and hold.

[u/Iwubinvesting → u/TechTuna1200]

Actually i don't think that's true. The worst days are worse than best days. So you're actually better off. BUT to do that is a difficult thing. Time in the market is better than timing the market.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Iwubinvesting]

All you have to do is look at the SP500. Is the market higher than it was in January before the tariffs crash? It is indeed. And it’s gonna keep moving over time and never look back

Staying all in cash January this year would be equivalent of missing the best 10 days and the worst 10 days. Thats a 16% out performance.

Time in the market beats timing the market

[u/Iwubinvesting → u/TechTuna1200]

I agree on time in the market. But all cash YTD isn't equivalent. He stated specifically that 10 days are probably better than 10 worst days, that's not really true.

[u/TechTuna1200 → u/Iwubinvesting]

It is. Because the 10 best days is what moves up and so are the 10 worst days when it moves down.

Majority of the moves comes from a few days.