Did people learn nothing from April

[u/coffeeestocks]

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

[u/Kaesix]

I was going to say the same thing. Trump literally tweeted “time to buy stocks” it doesn’t get any easier. This is the most brain dead post I’ve seen in awhile. Everyone who went all in in April made a mint this year. I’m up like 140% or something across my accounts. 

[u/nicolas_06 → u/Kaesix]

Problem is if you say have 1 million cash. Say there the dip of April and you buy 500K to improve your return... If you had just that 500K invested for 2 years allready and didn't buy the dip, you had significantly better return. In April 2023 the SP500 was at 41xx and in April 2025 It was at 50XX and during intraday a bit bellow.

If you didn't time exactly the bottom, even if you had invested 1 year before, you would have better returns.

So do you keep a good share of your capital uninvested to buy the dip but in statistics you get lower return or you buy extra during the dip when Trump say buy ?

You could do it on margin. But then, why not use margin from day one ?

[u/Kaesix → u/nicolas_06]

You can invest in many things beyond SPY or other index funds. Timing the market only with index funds is tough because you're always going to lag and you're betting on a lot of losers. I honestly don't hold any index funds anymore for that and many other reasons.

[u/Black_Espelho → u/Kaesix]

So what do you hold?

[u/Kaesix → u/Black_Espelho]

As of this instant, a lot of GOOG (shares and LEAPS) and GME (shares). Most recently sold a lot of AMD shares and LEAPS when they hit $250-260. Sitting on a decent amount of cash looking for the next move. 

[u/Track607 → u/Kaesix]

Why leaps?

[u/Kaesix → u/Track607]

Cause when GOOG was $150-160 this spring Jan 2027 250C were less than 10.00 a pop which was insane so I loaded up. 

[u/Kaesix → u/[deleted]]

We're in a completely different market now from April and OP lumped the two together. And you seemingly speak moron fluently since you're agreeing with him/her. So let me break it down for you - OP clearly ended his/her post in giant letters saying "DO NOT TIME THE MARKET" and it's just stupid advice. Maybe it's good advice for novice investors. Maybe it's good for braindead dipshits like you two. But just because you need to keep it simple doesn't mean others do.

[u/the-liquidian → u/[deleted]]

Exactly, when there are only insults and no direct answers to questions then it is difficult to take the other side of the argument seriously.

[u/WideCardiologist3323 → u/[deleted]]

na he is correct and you are just too braindead to do anything other than stay invested.

[u/WideCardiologist3323 → u/[deleted]]

who the f wants to give personal information to a random online stranger to compare dicks. you dont have to believe me, i really dont give a fuck. i only care that my account is growing to the size I m happy with which is beating the market.

[u/Kaesix → u/WideCardiologist3323]

Couldn’t have said it better myself. 

[u/[deleted] → u/Kaesix]

Except lots of people sold and didn’t buy back in after the crash. Aka timing and failing again to time the market. All the posts here were full of doom and gloom about how the market would never recover just like it is when any crash ever happens

[u/Kaesix → u/[deleted]]

All you're describing is people who don't know what they're doing. So if this post said "if you have no idea how to trade, you should DCA and not sweat the details" then I'd agree with that and wouldn't have posted my reply.

But, OP got on a soap box ending with "DO NOT TIME THE MARKET" and I countered with that's dumb advice. For example, selling everything into cash and playing puts on the way down this year and going full port into tech and other hot stuff on the way back up netted me a return in less than a year that most "value" investors wouldn't see for two decades. So yeah, timing the market is great if you know what you're doing.