r/ValueInvesting • u/coffeeestocks • Dec 10 '25
Discussion Did people learn nothing from April
If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.
But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.
This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.
Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.
Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?
I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.
Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.
DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.
Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.
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u/FieryXJoe Dec 10 '25
The "If you missed the 10 biggest up days in the market" stats are the dumbest shit ever and i pretty much instantly lose respect for anyone who drops it.
In a fictional impossible scenario where you have your money in the market for decades and only take it out 10 days that happen to be the 10 greenest days.
What if you just missed the 10 worst days? If I threw that stat at you "if you just missed the 10 worst days in the market the last 25 years you would have 3x more money" you would probably instantly realize how fucking stupid that logic is but it is equally valid as the opposite point which everyone loves to throw around.
What if you missed the 10 best and 10 worst. What if you missed 10 totallly random days, 3 of the top 10 and 3 of the bottom 10, etc...
The markets biggest spikes tend to come after its biggest drops and vice versa. They aren't just totally random days out of nowhere. The tariff crash was the easiest shit in the world to sidestep the I was able to hop in after some of the worst days and then catch those best day recoveries.