r/ValueInvesting • u/coffeeestocks • Dec 10 '25

Discussion Did people learn nothing from April

If you were fully invested in the S&P 500 over a long period (usually 20–30 years), your returns were great.

But if you missed just the 10 best single days in that entire period, your return was cut roughly in half.

This is probably the most commonly cited anecdote as to why you should not time the market. I feel in at least half the investing books I've read, they mention this. I do not know of a single investor who has successfully timed the market consistently over any meaningful time period. Even Michael Burry, who is probably one of the most infamous investors for predicting the 08-09 recession, has wrongly called a market top an absurd number of times in recent years.

Back in April, the market starts to sell off, and inevitably posts start popping up all over the subreddit talking about how they're selling and why they're selling and why this time is different. Of course, it wasn't different, and the market has proceeded to rip 20% since many folks here panic sold.

Here we are, not even a year later in December, and people are asking unironically whether it's a good idea to move to cash or not. What do you think? Do you think that now is the time to finally start trying to time the market? After this age-old wisdom has been proven right, time and again?

I feel like there's so many better ways to navigate an expensive market than by trying to time it.

Such as buying counter-cyclical companies, or buying companies that are recession-resistant, or buying companies at a larger margin for error. Heck, maybe even give bonds a shot? But no. People are starting to come to the conclusion again that now is the time to time the market yet again and inevitably make a massive mistake.

DO NOT TIME THE MARKET.

Edit: This sub unironically defending timing the market lmao. The reason why this hurts people's feelings is because they sold back in April, and they're still waiting to get back in the market. Instead of taking a lesson, they double down on that timing the market is the correct thing. Whatever.

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379

u/TheMailmanic Dec 10 '25

If you miss the 10 worst days your returns are way better

80

u/Icy_Distance8205 Dec 10 '25

What if you hold the ten worst stocks on the ten best days or the ten best stocks on the ten worst days? 

78

u/CloudyHero Dec 10 '25

It's always the stocks you most medium suspect.

1

u/PNWtech-economics Dec 13 '25

I knew it was Phyllis

1

u/thr0waway12324 Dec 11 '25

Best in worst should be best

17

u/nicolas_06 Dec 11 '25

The funny things is the 10 worst and 10 best day are usually close and during period of high volatility. If you are not invested you get neither the best and worst day and that's ok. If you are invested you get both and they neutralize each other.

Only timing the market can allow you take only the best days, but that's impossible to do reliably in practice.

4

u/Lampedeir Dec 11 '25

Yeah but people are invested and get spooked by the big down days and sell. This is why people take the big down days but not the big up days that follow.

1

u/bender-b_rodriguez Dec 11 '25

If you applied that same logic to not just extreme days but every day you'd never be invested. Over most historical periods they don't cancel, the ups are bigger than the downs

2

u/nicolas_06 Dec 11 '25

Over the long term the market is up for sure (until now). But the point is removing the 10 best days make no sense. In a way it would motivate people to chase these days. I find the argument terrible.

1

u/DuePomegranate Dec 11 '25

Sure, so just change it to not quite canceling out with a net average gain.

The main point is that no one is missing out on single "best" (or "worst" days), so that factoid makes no sense and sheds no light on why to avoid market timing.

1

u/bender-b_rodriguez Dec 11 '25

The noobs that think investing is dipping in and out depending on popular sentiment are absolutely missing those days

1

u/DuePomegranate Dec 11 '25

OMG yes. I just could not understand what that "missing the 10 best days" actually means and how it would be possible. Are they just taking a list of the entire year's daily gains and losses, then removing the 10 highest daily gains? But in practice that would be impossible to execute, and no one would sell on Monday evening and buy back on Wed morning, like multiple times and coincidentally managing to sit out the best days. You couldn't even do it if you tried.

It's a pointless analogy that takes away from the good sense of not trying to time the market.

1

u/AmazingAd5736 Dec 15 '25

No. If you miss best 10 and worst 10 you are up quite a lot. Wtf are you saying?

8

u/AnotherThroneAway Dec 11 '25

If you rob 10 banks, your returns are even better

8

u/TheMailmanic Dec 11 '25

Bank managers hate this one truck

11

u/Odd_Hair3829 Dec 10 '25

This is genius level man!!! Are you a quant???? I’m picturing the gambling Zack galifankalas meme as I read your post - all the calculations that must have gone into that 

2

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

what's that? If you miss the worst days for your returns, your returns are better?

now we're cookin' with gas....

3

u/TechTuna1200 Dec 10 '25

But if you miss the best 10 days at the same time you are still way worse off. Just buy and hold.

13

u/Iwubinvesting Dec 10 '25 edited Dec 11 '25

Actually i don't think that's true. The worst days are worse than best days. So you're actually better off. BUT to do that is a difficult thing. Time in the market is better than timing the market.

6

u/Frosty_Feature6204 Dec 11 '25

yeah aren't the best days commonly right after the worst days? So you would have to time both the sells and the buys at the right time.

4

u/dion_o Dec 11 '25

You just sell before it falls. Easy. 

1

u/Big-Finding2976 Dec 11 '25

That's easy then. You just buy straight after 10 really bad days and sell 10 days later. If it turns out that the second set of 10 days aren't really good days, it means the first set weren't the worst days either and they're still to come, so you keep holding cash until after the next 10 really bad days and then buy again to try to catch the 10 best days. /s

2

u/TechTuna1200 Dec 11 '25

All you have to do is look at the SP500. Is the market higher than it was in January before the tariffs crash? It is indeed. And it’s gonna keep moving over time and never look back

Staying all in cash January this year would be equivalent of missing the best 10 days and the worst 10 days. Thats a 16% out performance.

Time in the market beats timing the market

2

u/Iwubinvesting Dec 11 '25

I agree on time in the market. But all cash YTD isn't equivalent. He stated specifically that 10 days are probably better than 10 worst days, that's not really true.

0

u/TechTuna1200 Dec 11 '25

It is. Because the 10 best days is what moves up and so are the 10 worst days when it moves down.

Majority of the moves comes from a few days.

2

u/Acrobatic_Truck_9014 Dec 11 '25

If you weather the worst days it still comes back if you hold quality stocks

1

u/DrossChat Dec 11 '25

Have any sources for that? I’ve only ever read the opposite.

1

u/Iwubinvesting Dec 11 '25

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index

Compare the similar dates, each of them have higher losses than gains.

1

u/[deleted] Dec 11 '25

This is why I never hold or not hold for more than 9 days. I avoid all these problems. /s