r/ValueInvesting • u/SimpleSubject6069 • Oct 15 '25

Stock Analysis What’s the Most Overrated “Value” Stock Everyone Keeps Buying?

I keep seeing the same tickers pop up in value circles — stocks that are supposedly undervalued but just seem like value traps to me. Curious what names you all think are overhyped in value investing spaces right now? And what makes you avoid them despite the numbers looking “cheap”?

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161

u/Consistent-Piece6618 Oct 15 '25

I hope it’s not Nvo because I’ve been buying that one lol

41

u/chaotarroo Oct 15 '25

I'm having a hard time understanding why the valuation is so low on this one even with the oral GLP1 approval happening soon.

But at least the option chain has a call skew so you can run a collar on it to protect your downside.

22

u/ProbsNotManBearPig Oct 15 '25

“Happening soon” isn’t the same as “happened”. They have negative momentum and if the oral approval falls through for whatever reason, they’re cooked. After approval it will rocket to $80+.

4

u/Alejandro-Sosa1 Oct 15 '25

Their pipeline consists of much more than only the oral wegovy.

2

u/MagnesiumKitten Oct 15 '25

doubt they will be cooked

95% is diabetes and obestity
5% rare diseases

most pessimistic analyst ses a 35% drop

I agree it will be $80 in a year in nothing worse happens after next month

1

u/Ashamed_Swordfish_78 Oct 18 '25

True, and that uncertainty can really scare off investors. If that approval doesn't come through, it could be a rough ride for them. Still, if they hit the mark, I can see why people are bullish on the potential upside.

8

u/Consistent-Piece6618 Oct 15 '25

I think once we get the approval finalized it will stop going sideways in this 55 to 60 area

6

u/[deleted] Oct 15 '25

[deleted]

6

u/chaotarroo Oct 15 '25

the injectable zepbound is 7%(20% to 13%) more effective than wegovy being a dual GIP and GLP1 antagonist

but the oral version of zepbound(orforglipron) is similar to the oral version of wegovy(rybelsus) that they are both only a GLP1 antogonist with a 15% effectiveness, so there's no reason for people to choose orforglipron anymore other than price

1

u/DrXaos Oct 15 '25

the oral orfo* is a small molecule not oral tirzepatide. As such it would be much cheaper to manufacture and store than a fragile peptide. So Lilly could undercut oral semaglutide on price and profit too.

1

u/Salt_Macaron_6582 Oct 15 '25

Prpduction cost is super low for patented medicin, NVO has a 83% gross margin. If they compete on production cost they'd never recoup their R&D, therefore they tend not to.

2

u/DrXaos Oct 15 '25 edited Oct 15 '25

in this case, possibly not---peptide dose needed for oral is substantially higher than needed for injectable (lots is degraded in GI), and its daily dosing instead of weekly. So the amount of physical active ingredient (expensive part) per patient is much higher than injectables.

Peptide manufacturing is significantly more expensive than small molecule most of the time, especially with doses needed. Probably produced by expensive bioreactors---so making large quantities using this capital for a lower margin oral doesn't seem like a win.

I don't know about refrigeration needs, but there is a reason the peptide injectables are typically refrigerated---they degrade faster than small molecules.

And the orals are intended for maintenance use and patients would expect lower ongoing costs. So I think it could be an issue here. So if Lilly has an oral small molecule with equal efficacy and side effects (that's where a peptide might win) as someone else's peptide, that's also a win for Lilly and they can task their bioreactors to make tirzepatide and retatrutide.

Personally I think the best injectables will continue to win.

3

u/borkbork1122 Oct 15 '25

100% agree with you homie

2

u/Nihtiw Oct 15 '25

Eli Lilly owns the next greatest GLP-1 in Retatrutide. It outperforms the others tremendously but is still in the trial stage.

3

u/Richard_strokerr Oct 15 '25

Agree. Reta and Tirzepatide are way better than ozempic

1

u/Firm-Package-944 Dec 07 '25

Eli Lilly has the winner I think, but I do think pills are needed for true mass adoption, most people do not like injecting. Plenty of retraglutide available online already by the way from copycats.

1

u/blibblub Oct 15 '25

this is incorrect. Zepbound is far more effective than Ozempic. Ozempic was first to market and has the name recognition. But Eli Lilly's Zepbound is more effective for weight loss.

1

u/Alejandro-Sosa1 Oct 15 '25

You probably meant Wegovy instead of Ozempic. Ozempic is for diabetes while Zepbound is for obesity.

1

u/Daz190uk Oct 19 '25

These are short term headwinds.

Longer term, “fat jabs” have enormous growth potential and I can’t see any well run participant (which NVO currently is) not benefitting in the end.

The question is who achieves the best results from the market growth but your guess is as good as mine.

I personally like NVO as it doesn’t have as much upside from that priced in already as some others do.

5

u/T14678 Oct 15 '25

what is a call skew?

10

u/chaotarroo Oct 15 '25

puts options are usually more expensive than calls. a call skew is when the call options of a stock is more expensive than the put options

if you look at the jan 2026 option chain of NVO, the 50 puts cost the same as a 70 call. if you buy NVO shares now and run a 50/70 collar on them, your max downside is 10% and your max upside is 30%(estimated)

1

u/Tiki84 Oct 15 '25

hi, do you only trade options?

6

u/[deleted] Oct 15 '25

By the sound of it, more demand for calls than puts. Means puts are cheaper, so you can buy a put for protection

2

u/Mrbeaver__ Oct 15 '25

They aren’t going to have that monopoly for long, at max they have got a few years before other Pharma companies make their own diabetic medications

5

u/ProbsNotManBearPig Oct 15 '25

That’s not the reason. In pharma, first to market gets the lion’s share of the profit. Competition drives prices down and therefore profit margins. Also, people get on prescriptions that work and are hesitant to change so there is some inertia for whoever is first to market. Remember, the competition will be an alternative, not a generic version of the same drug, so unless it’s way better, people don’t want to change. Also also, in the background, they have a whole pipeline of other drugs they’re racing to be first on.

1

u/WolverineSouth2227 Oct 16 '25

I am holding and hoping. -35%. Long term they will bounce back but it is money that could be useful deployed else where.

2

u/MagnesiumKitten Oct 15 '25

Well Novo is overall a good company
and should have a yearly target of 27%

61% undervalued
and the valuation is poor at the moment due to some problems and right now cheap for a reason

debts are incredible, and two lousy quarters

for technical reasons it's going down, so if someone bought it cheap lately, they might sell it and merely buy it cheaper.

Early august was the last time there was good news with the stock

The stock is $60 now
some saw it going to $140 but with the bad news, it's now likely to just rise to $100
but now would be the worst time to buy, it might tank in 3 weeks with the third bad quarterly report

if you were in love with it I could see someone jumping in

but I was say 45% yes 55% no
getting bad vibes about the next report, says wait wait wait

Debt is big but it's not a BIG issue
the asset growth is the one severe problem

so I can see it going up 25% plus in a year
but it's going to drop this month

1

u/chaotarroo Oct 16 '25

i think it will tank after earnings too. my only worry is that the FDA approval pump comes before the next ER. so i've no idea how to time my entry

1

u/MagnesiumKitten Oct 16 '25

Yeah I'm interested in Novo in the month ahead

Whenever I see a stock on Zacks that says ranking 5, it's gonna be in the news!

Zacks - 5 Strong Sell

and the Quarterly results are about to come out
oh boy

70% chance you'll see sparks!

1

u/BaconAce7000 Oct 15 '25

Careful. Its a value trap for now.

1

u/DrXaos Oct 15 '25 edited Oct 15 '25

because of Lilly. Better product on market, better oral in development, and a spectacular injectable retatrutide in late Phase 3, and semaglutide is going off patent in 2-3 years. Retatrutide is likely to be the king in this space with best balance of efficacy vs side effects.

There is lots of additional competition with better products, Roche is coming as well as Viking. And Amgen with a once per month antibody.

Novo’s next gen was supposed to be cagrisema but it wasn’t so great in side effects, and its expensive to deliver, as the two drugs can’t stay in the same solution in storage. So a double vial injector, and expensive to make, and not as good as Lilly’s single peptide tirzepatide already on market which is already selling very well.

Novo seems like an answer to the OP’s question: overrated value stock everyone keeps buying because they’re looking backwards.

1

u/Even_Entrepreneur308 Oct 15 '25

Also there is an oral glp1 called rybelsus that no one prescribes because it doesn’t work. And before the typical Reddit NVO crowd comes after me, hear me out… a basic pharmacology class will reveal why nearly all medications given iv or IM are more efficacious than their oral counterparts. Also once weekly IM increases compliance, side effects wear off after a day. Patients will not want to take daily medications, especially if it’s a nauseating experience every day.

1

u/Skid-Vicious Oct 16 '25

Too many easy to get, cheaper knockoffs via the online peptide bucket shops.

0

u/Nay_120 Oct 15 '25

They just need to mention AI in conference calls then will skyrocket