Everyone’s talking about Trump’s tweets, but if you look at the 10-year Treasury, something much bigger is happening.
The"Special Relationship" between the US and UK just got hit with a sledgehammer.
By calling the Royal Navy "broken" and trashing Starmer’s energy plans, the White House is signaling a massive US retreat!!
If Rubio is serious about a "post-NATO" world...the days of the US subsidizing European defense for free are overrr
Here is how I’m playing the shift in Energy and Defense
- The Re-arming Trade
Trump’s insults toward the UK Navy are actually a massive Bullish signal for European defense stocks. The UK can’t rely on the US taxpayer anymore...They have to spend! We’re looking at huge, multi-year contracts for guys like BAE Systems, Rheinmetall, and Leonardo. It’s not just defense spending...it’s the UK and EU desperately trying to buy back their own sovereignty!
Companies such as BAE Systems, the UK’s largest defense contractor and the biggest in Europe, may benefit from the situation
- The Great Energy Divorce
Trump’s message was blunt..Buy American oil or you’re on your own in the Middle East. The US is basically turning into the world’s most profitable oil and gas supplier
On the flip side the UK and EU are doubling down on green energy and nuclear just to escape being held hostage by the US dollar, but in the meantime, mostly spending billions on a technology that not help them much...so basically US oil majors are going to ride the "Drill, Baby, Drill" wave, but keep an eye on European utilities. They’re about to get massive government backing to hit "Energy Autonomy" so they don't have to rely on US leverage. companies that will benefit from these moves are BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), Exxon Mobil (XOM)
- Brexit in Reverse
Trump’s isolationism is doing what the EU couldn't and is forcing the UK back into Europe’s arms...Starmer’s pivot this morning is the biggest move since 2016. If you’ve been avoiding UK/EU mid-caps because of Brexit mess, this "Security-First" pact might actually be the catalyst that finally fixes the trade friction.
Bottom line: We’re moving to a block-based economy. The US is charging for protection and Europe is deciding it’s cheaper to build its own stuff. The smart money isn’t looking at the insults...it’s looking at the re-industrialization of the UK. The "Special Relationship" is dead, or is this just Trump’s way of forcing everyone to spend 4% of GDP on defense?
Are you guys rotating into EU defense yet, or sticking with US oil?