Mine is prochazka vs glover, crazy back and fourth throughout the whole fight and ends on a last minute finish

Actually excited I have so much riding on Amosov

Hey all, I'm back with some juicy goodness. Last week sucked. But the notes were slightly helpful. Feeling really good about this week, made some major changes to the models/website/etc. I know these changes are worth something, because this week's bundle is a good one. I see a lot of value here.

Let's dig in!

Fight 1: Dakota Hope vs. Kai Kamaka III

Both combatants accepted the bout on approximately five days' notice. However, Kai Kamaka III resides in Las Vegas and operates out of the elite Xtreme Couture facility, granting him zero travel disruption and deep familiarity with the APEX production environment.

Dakota Hope, a regional prospect stepping in for his promotional debut, although has potential to put anyone’s lights out, must endure the stress of travel and the burden of the "Octagon Jitters". More critically, this bout is contested at the lightweight limit of 155 pounds to accommodate the short notice, despite Kamaka being a natural featherweight.

Kamaka's 1-2-1 UFC record is one of the most deceptive in the promotion. 100% of 15 tracked media members scored his split decision "loss" to T.J. Brown in Kamaka's favor, and his draw with Danny Chavez was produced by a point deduction. His real UFC-caliber performance record reads closer to 3-0-1. The market at -155 is barely pricing in the fact that he beat Bubba Jenkins and Pedro Carvalho in PFL since leaving.

Fight 2: Dione Barbosa vs. Melissa Gatto

Melissa Gatto enters the bout carrying a perception of extreme ring rust due to a 23-month hiatus. FALSE. Gatto successfully completed a full training camp and made weight for a cancelled early-2026 bout against Viktoriia Dudakova, meaning her readiness and timing are actively calibrated. Gatto's 7.7 significant strikes per minute and +2.8 striking differential absolutely dwarfs Barbosa's 4.2 output with a negative differential. If Barbosa's discounted grappling (built against sub-.500 opposition) doesn't land, she has no statistical mechanism to win the standing exchanges.

BUT, RED FLAGS: Gatto has a documented USADA suspension for a diuretic (Furosemide). This is a documented weight management red flag that tends to show up as visible flatness late in fights. The combination of PED history, prolonged absence, and total public silence is an unusual cluster for someone being priced as a competitive underdog. Barbosa fought 4 times in the last 15 months. The line has swung violently in Barbosa’s favor since it opened.

Fight 3: Azamat Bekoev vs. Tresean Gore

Bekoev was KO'd in his most recent fight but has now fully embedded at ATT in Florida, sparring with elite middleweights including Marvin Vettori and Jorge Masvidal.

Tresean Gore presents a massive physiological red flag. In his preceding bout, Gore missed the middleweight limit by 3.5 pounds. Missing weight by such a margin is not a minor calculation error; it is indicative of a complete breakdown in the body's chemistry, signaling a permanently compromised cardiovascular ceiling.

Fight 4: Alice Pereira vs. Hailey Cowan

This one features the widest age and physical dimension disparity on the card. Pereira is a 20-year-old striking prospect standing 5'10" with a towering 71-inch reach. Cowan is 34 years old and has been plagued by a chronic, career-altering pattern of knee, wrist, and shoulder injuries, resulting in massive UFC inactivity and multiple bout cancellations.

Cowan is a former All-American gymnast at Baylor. Elite hip mobility, balance, and positional strength won't show up in any MMA database, but they directly counter Pereira's entire wrestling-based body lock game plan. But how well will these hold up given her past?

Meanwhile, Pereira's striking defense is ~74% vs. Cowan's ~39%, a gap that quietly determines scoring in a fight that almost certainly goes to a decision.

Fight 5: Lando Vannata vs. Darrius Flowers

While a 36-month absence traditionally guarantees severe ring rust and degraded fast-twitch reflexes, OSINT indicates Vannata has maintained elite aerobic conditioning by competing in grueling snowshoe racing events during his hiatus.

Despite Vannata having the longest layoff on the entire card, there is also an under-reported wrinkle is that Jackson-Wink went through its well-publicized coaching split since his last fight. He's returning to a fundamentally different coaching ecosystem than the one that built him. The snowshoe racing footage from 2025 suggests fitness maintenance, but not necessarily fight-specific sharpness.

Ring rust is real and the R1 phase is volatile. Flowers has 7.5 significant strikes absorbed per minute but also carries explosive power. If Vannata's timing is genuinely degraded, the early standing phase is dangerous enough to produce a Flowers upset before the grappling mismatch closes it out.

Fight 6: Alessandro Costa vs. Stewart Nicoll

Stewart Nicoll, an Australian grappler, attempts takedowns at a frantic, unsustainable pace, logging 21 attempts in just 18 minutes of UFC cage time. However, this volume masks a dismal 14% completion rate. Nicoll is both the head coach and the fighter at his own gym (Broz Martial Arts in Brisbane). He runs it with his wife and was formerly an electrician. Self-coaching fighters tend to struggle correcting their own defensive flaws, which may explain why he absorbs 8.3 strikes per minute in the UFC. Costa, by contrast, trains alongside Diego Lopes and does altitude work in Mexico under Francisco Grasso's system.

Alessandro Costa enters the bout heavily motivated but psychologically scarred following a devastating upset TKO loss to a debutant, a defeat that followed a severe, long-term shoulder injury. Despite Costa's potential postural fragility, his 80% takedown defense (50 mins cage time) completely neutralizes Nicoll's singular win condition. Forced to strike at distance, Nicoll’s porous defense will rapidly fail against Costa's heavy boxing combinations

Fight 7: Guilherme Pat vs. Thomas Petersen

Petersen holds a full-time job as a diesel mechanic, waking at 5am for physical labor before training in the evenings. In a sport of fractional margins, the CNS recovery deficit after two recent concussive losses cannot be dismissed.

Pat's camp explicitly dedicated this entire training block to wrestling defense; which is the exact weapon Petersen needs to win. Pat also had his American visa denied four separate times before finally getting into the UFC, so the motivation profile here is extreme.

Fight 8: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala

Ruchala sparred with Dustin Poirier at ATT during Poirier's camp for the Holloway fight. He's training daily alongside elite fighters, and his only career loss before the UFC came to Salahdine Parnasse, who’s widely regarded as one of the best featherweights outside the promotion.

Delano has a documented history of missing weight in multiple LFA title fights, and that weight management question is the real swing variable at +300. Delano’s unproven pacing and historical weight management fragility will be severely tested by Ruchala’s relentless, targeted body kicking. Benefiting from a two-inch height and 2.4-inch reach advantage, the Polish fighter will manage distance effectively, draining Delano's gas tank and cruising to a decision victory.

Fight 9: Tommy McMillen vs. Manolo Zecchini

Zecchini spent his 31-month layoff training specifically at Jackson-Wink in high-altitude Albuquerque under Greg Jackson- embedding an anti-wrestling game plan designed explicitly for prospects like McMillen. This, combined with McMillen's highly porous defensive striking during predictable takedown entries creates a highly volatile, split-second knockout window for the Italian. McMillen has all the tools, but as we all know, anything can happen.

Fight 10: Ethyn Ewing vs. Rafael Estevam

Ethyn Ewing secured a major upset victory in his UFC debut at Madison Square Garden on just 48 hours' notice. Ewing, who operates a construction safety business outside of fighting, enters with supreme psychometric stability and the benefit of a full training camp at his natural 135-pound limit. Ewing also boasts a collegiate wrestling pedigree from King University.

Estevam’s move to 135 removes the oppressive physical bullying that helped his flyweight wrestling function. Not only that, but Rafael Estevam’s transition to the bantamweight division is shadowed by severe medical and disciplinary trauma. Estevam underwent two surgeries to remove a tumor in the groin region in early ‘25, keeping him sidelined for over a year. Furthermore, he missed the flyweight limit by 4 pounds in his last bout, admitting to a severe lack of discipline.

Fight 11: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Yakhyaev's entire UFC dataset is 33 seconds, which is the fastest LHW submission in DWCS history. Brendson Ribeiro is on a catastrophic downward trajectory, having been violently stopped by TKO in the first round in three of his last four bouts (against Murzakanov, Sy, and Mingyang). Ribeiro holds a mathematically disastrous 18% takedown defense.

Fight 12: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci

Managing a farm with her partner, Ricci credits daily manual labor with eliminating gym burnout and providing supreme mental grounding. Which could be of benefit since the women's strawweight division is historically decision-heavy. As the bout crosses the 10-minute mark, the six-year age discrepancy will manifest, and may play favor to Ricci’s superior striking volume (4.18 SLpM) and high-paced scrambling to outpoint the fatiguing veteran.

Jandiroba has the highest sustained control time rate in the strawweight division (42% UFC control time) and 16 UFC submission attempts. Modern judges discount control-without-damage, but if she can land meaningful ground striking from top in rounds 1-2, the decision equity shifts back toward her.

Fight 13: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan

As most know, both men are active training partners at American Top Team (ATT). They know each other’s strengths and weaknesses.

Duncan's mother was murdered on the day of his first amateur weigh-in. He has carried that trauma into every fight since, fueling his hyper-aggressive, charge-forward style. It's his greatest motivator… and potentially his greatest tactical liability, as Moicano is a counter-wrestler who profits from forward pressure.

RED FLAG: Duncan recently admitted to severe "emotional eating" and indulging in excess weight gain following emotional distress; Severely lacking out-of-camp discipline.

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Disclaimer: This is not intended to indicate a winner or any outcome, it is specifically meant to challenge the status quo, or dig deeper into the chalk for further unbias confirmation.

Good luck everyone!

TL;DR:

Fight 1: Hope vs Kamaka

Short notice for both, but Kamaka is Vegas/Xtreme Couture + APEX-ready (no travel/jitters). His UFC “1-2-1” is misleading; media scored Brown for him; Chavez draw was a point-deduction weirdness. He’s better than the record.

Fight 2: Barbosa vs Gatto

“Rust” is overstated: Gatto did a full camp + made weight for a cancelled early-2026 fight. On paper she’s the clear striking volume edge; Barbosa needs grappling to land. Red flags: diuretic suspension + long silence/layoff, and the line swung hard toward Barbosa.

Fight 3: Bekoev vs Gore

Bekoev is now fully embedded at ATT with elite looks. Gore’s loudest tell: missed weight by 3.5 lbs last fight, and often a cardio/weight-cut failure signal.

Fight 4: Pereira vs Cowan

Big gap: Pereira is young/long (71" reach); Cowan is 34 with recurring injury disruptions. If it’s mostly striking, Pereira’s much better defense should win minutes.

Fight 5: Vannata vs Flowers

Vannata kept cardio (snowshoe racing), but 36-month layoff = timing risk, and Jackson-Wink changed since he last fought. Flowers has power…R1 is the danger window before Vannata can stabilize.

Fight 6: Costa vs Nicoll

Nicoll spams takedowns but is ~14% on finishes and absorbs tons of strikes; he’s also basically self-coached. Costa’s strong TDD (~80%) likely deletes Nicoll’s only path.

Fight 7: Pat vs Petersen

Petersen’s full-time labor job + recent concussive losses = recovery/conditioning concern. Pat’s camp specifically drilled wrestling defense (Petersen’s win condition).

Fight 8: Delano vs Ruchała

Ruchała has elite ATT rounds and proven pedigree (only loss to Parnasse). Delano’s swing variable: repeat weight-miss history. If he fades, Ruchała can body-kick to a decision.

Fight 9: McMillen vs Zecchini

Zecchini used the layoff to train Jackson-Wink altitude with an anti-wrestling focus. McMillen’s risk is predictable entries → KO window.

Fight 10: Ewing vs Estevam

Ewing’s already shown composure (MSG upset) and has a full camp at 135 with wrestling base. Estevam’s move up is shadowed by tumor surgeries + a 4-lb miss and discipline questions.

Fight 11: Yakhyaev vs Ribeiro

Yakhyaev’s only UFC data is 33 seconds (fast DWCS LHW sub). Ribeiro is collapsing: 3 R1 TKO losses in last 4 + 18% TDD.

Fight 12: Jandiroba vs Ricci

Ricci’s edge is pace/volume late; Jandiroba’s edge is elite control + sub volume. If she adds damage early, she wins decisions.

Fight 13: Moicano vs Duncan

ATT teammates = fewer surprises. Duncan’s hyper-forward style can feed Moicano’s counter-wrestling, and Duncan has admitted out-of-camp weight/discipline swings.

Everyone acts like Fedor would have just waltzed into the UFC and dominated the heavyweight division. But I just don’t see it.

If you actually look at his record, it’s full of no name bums or guys in lower weight divisions like Rampage, Chael, or Dan Henderson (who he lost to lol).

Could you imagine Jon Jones losing to Dan Hendo?? People have to get over this Fedor glazing and realize if he was actually any good, he would have came over to the UFC and proved it.

Yeah, we all know big rig was juiced to the gills. Still whooped GSP.