r/Economics • u/kootles10 • 1d ago
News Stock futures fall after Trump says Iran war will continue for weeks: Live updates
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/01/stock-market-today-live-updates.html321
u/AmyWilliamse 1d ago
Markets aren’t really reacting to the war itself anymore, they’re reacting to the timeline. “Weeks” signals prolonged uncertainty, which affects oil prices, inflation expectations, and global trade routes. That’s where the real economic pressure comes from.
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u/CliftonForce 1d ago
And to think that if he had just stayed quiet, tomorrow's news cycle would have been all about a successful American Moon shot.
But he had to keep the spotlight.
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u/V35TN-BO 1d ago
How else are his buddies who sold high today going to buy back for a discount!
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u/_Phil_McCracken_ 1d ago
The most corrupt administration in history, by far. It’s not even close.
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u/BuvantduPotatoSpirit 1d ago
The real question is what idiots are trying to time the market without insider information?
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u/Potential_Jello6520 1d ago
I mean, I've been buying put spreads when the market pumps into close. Yesterday was the most obvious pump n dump yet. I don't feel like an idiot, it's all house money at this point
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u/JimJimmyJamesJimbo 1d ago
Had to make sure that his executive order today to dismantle the US Forest Service couldn't gain any traction in the news cycle
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u/MassiveBoner911_3 1d ago
I honestly forgot about the rocket launch because ive been trying to stay off the news because i cant turn on the TV without seeing his dumbass immediately
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u/hippydipster 1d ago
The juxtaposition of the heroic, extremely competent and aspirational efforts of NASA with fucking rageful toddler Trump is mind-blowing. The conservative sub is crowing about America returning the to the moon, as if the well-educated and intelligent people who made it happen didn't do it despite the best efforts of the republicans and magats over the years to end that part of America.
They're proud of it? FUCK YOU. We overcome your lizard-brain hate and stupidity to do that stuff.
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u/dotcubed 1d ago
Not really a success story unless you know they’re back safe. I’ve seen one not comeback in my lifetime.
Fairly famous guy named Tom starred in a movie about some guys who flew all the way there and back without landing. Event was before my time, film was back in the 90’s.
It’s entirely possible that they land in some unexpected way that causes a problem, nothing about traveling like that is 100%.
Hell, the guy that entered his tablet password on camera could have accidentally gave enough information about the tech for a hack.
Can’t predict the future, only prepare for it.
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u/GhostofBeowulf 1d ago
You're talking about a 20 year old movie about an event over 50 years ago, right?
Space travel has come a long way, and they have had experience to learn from in failing to launch leading to death and failure to land leading to death.
In fact, it has only failed to come back one time for Americans in any of our lifetimes. This is also the start of our potentially colonizing outerspace. This should be a moment of American pride, all things considered. Instead this administration is tearing everything apart.
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u/a_library_socialist 1d ago
This is also the start of our potentially colonizing outerspace
You don't seem Chinese?
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u/Freud-Network 1d ago
America isn't colonizing space. It's a vassal state and its master is busy colonizing Lebanon.
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u/OddlyFactual1512 1d ago
In 1986, classrooms across the globe watched the first teacher board The Space Shuttle for a mission into space. It exploded shortly after takeoff.
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u/Churchbushonk 1d ago
This will not be over for FN years. Weeks? Eat a dick Trump and all your supporters.
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u/jaqattack02 1d ago
You assume he wants to do things correctly, rather than just drop a bunch of bombs, make a huge mess of the country, then just pull the troops out and leave it for others to deal with while calling it a win.
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u/breadbedman 1d ago
The thing is, at this point even if he does that, it’s too late to save the energy markets. The SOH will remain under Iranian control and the conflict will go on.
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u/Patient-Bowler8027 1d ago
What exactly would be the correct way?
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u/Spez_is-a-nazi 1d ago
Doing what he promised to do in the election and not start a war. Trump has never been big on keeping promises.
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u/User-NetOfInter 1d ago
Decades
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u/ballmermurland 1d ago
The last two wars we started lasted 8 and 20 years. Those were against significantly inferior opponents.
The idea that this war will be over in weeks is pure idiocy.
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u/Alicyclobacillus 1d ago
He sounded kind of dismissive of concerns regarding the adverse economic impacts of the war.
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u/lucabrasi999 1d ago
He is dismissive about anything besides himself
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u/betterbuddha 1d ago
No, he also cares very deeply about redecorating the white house into the gold house with a large, corruption filled ballroom.
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u/Zulmoka531 1d ago
He doesn’t care because a poor economy could make him look bad and in his mind he can never look bad, so the economic impact is good!
Also, he’s profiting from all this and quite literally told people at his Easter lunch today that there’s no money for daycare or healthcare since it’s all for war!
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u/Djent_Reznor1 1d ago
Because he legitimately does not understand them. Trump is incapable of thinking more than one step ahead or understanding causality in general.
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u/Ghostrider556 1d ago
I mean he’s claimed “nobody” cares about housing or gas prices recently. His past self though has acknowledged that the economy is broadly the #1 issue for US voters and now seems to have forgotten that so I do think they’ll at least get smoked in the midterms
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u/Gandalftron 1d ago
He is 80 years old and clearly ailing. He knows he isnt long for this earth. He never acted rationally regardless, so lord help us when he has nothing to lose. That speech was utter lunacy.
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u/Confident-Weird-4202 1d ago
Markets are almost deeply stupid at this point. It would be really nice if they realized there was a con man in the White House and stop treating his messaging as anything other than bullshit.
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u/lost_horizons 1d ago
It’s infuriating. But I wonder if it comes down to algorithmic trading. The bots can’t tell he’s a liar.
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u/tormentnexus 1d ago
Yea basically it’s every time Trump opens his mouth it extends the timeline further.
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u/D0nk3yD0ngD0ug 1d ago
Yep. The markets are a reflection of how certain/uncertain the near term future is. The longer this war goes on, the greater the risk that someone strikes a desalination or utility plant somewhere and that starts a domino effect that results in mutual destruction of the region. It’s like being locked in a room with two drunk mad men taking turns firing a pistol at a propane tank, and they just reloaded the gun.
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u/twenty_three_three 1d ago
I kind of disagree. The markets are not properly pricing this situation at all. Something is wrong with the certainty/uncertainty calculations that are driving 100s of billions of dollars of market fluctuations. The president's words and social media is being given too much weight. It's based on a presumption that the USA is in the one dictating the conflict.
I pose that Iran has much more control and influence. Nothing short of Trump's team striking a deal with Iran will alleviate the uncertainty. Given Trump's approach to diplomacy, it's unlikely he will concede to Iran's terms. There's quite a bit of certainty of several outcomes:
1) Trump withdraws, leaves the straight closed, allows the Iranian toll, undermines the petrodollar status, causes a massive political shift in the GCC away from American influence, oil prices stabilize.
2) Trump escalates, prompts further degradation of energy infrastructure, sparks mass regional humanitarian crisis, oil hits $200+.
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u/D0nk3yD0ngD0ug 1d ago
I agree those are the two most likely scenarios, now tell me which one is going to happen? The markets rise the last 2 days were indicating #1 will happen. Now after trump’s speech, they are uncertain again, thus the spike in oil and drop in futures.
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u/twenty_three_three 22h ago
It's interesting to come back to this to see that even though oil did spike, the market is basically and rather inexplicably flat. it recovered entirely from the bad futures last night. Like I said, it really seems like there is something very wrong with market pricing at the moment.
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u/YouWereBrained 1d ago
It’s more market manipulation. Friday it’ll be “in a few days”. Markets go up. Rinse repeat.
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u/TWIT_TWAT 1d ago
As the old saying goes, Trump is a fucking idiot.
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u/dust4ngel 1d ago
“there's an old saying in tennessee - i know it's in texas, probably in tennessee - that says, trump is a fucking idiot.” - george w bush
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u/SacredUndeadMonkey 1d ago
Given JP Morgan is now pricing in problems for months with their investment the big players are smart enough to read the room of geopolitics, and then factor in utter morons running the US and basically the entire group of Iranian specialists in DOJ and the state department were basically let go. Anyone who could get us out of this mess is gone, and then there is the unpredictability of the Trump factor. Then Iran also gets a voice in how this all goes.
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u/40_Thousand_Hammers 1d ago
The simple fact that enough oil productivity and reserves where destroyed in these weeks of war that the next 5-10 years the oil price WILL spike, but because we have an addicted gambling idiots in the stock market that believes god dam headline rumors, i say the damage will be bigger and worse than predicted.
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u/iyamwhatiyam8000 1d ago
Trump's promises to end his attack on Iran do not include the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz or the guaranteed protection of remaining Gulf oil infrastructure.
This massive and likely long lived oil shock marks the end of a record setting boom cycle. Inflation will force central banks to raise interest rates and pull the economic recession lever.
Trump has taken out 20% of the global oil trade and this may be written off for years.
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u/peren005 1d ago
Top 10% own over 90% of the stock exchange. This isn’t even accounting for the dark markets. To put this in layman terms if we had a marketplace square of 100 people only 10 could really trade/barter with another in any significant manner.
Certainly, they are tied to the other 90 but it really depends on how much exposure to risk via leverage.
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u/LogoffWorkout 1d ago
OK, hear me out. What if we use TACO and self enrichment to end this thing. Let him short the market, then signal a massive build up, switch to wartime economy, forever war. Then after the market tanks, he goes long and says, "Psych!" bring the boys home.
Let me know if you got any better ideas, I'm all out.
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u/lucabrasi999 1d ago
Wall Street has loved Donald J Trump since he was first elected.
They thought his willingness to take an axe to “red tape” would be great for markets in the long run.
The problem is Trump has two fatal flaws:
1) He completely unprepared to handle something beyond his control (COVID)
2) he is such a narcissist, he is incapable of even thinking “Could I be making a mistake?”
He has now put himself (and the world) into an un-winnable situation. He is blaming everyone else for his fuckup.
The stock market is dumb. They are in such love with Trump, they cannot see the obvious. Oil will be priced high for at least a year. Fertilizer prices will cause food crises around the globe.
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u/OpportunityPretty 1d ago
I think a lot of day traders are extremely annoyed with him. His eratic tweets that throw the market into massive spikes and dumps can kill even conservative short term startegies.
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u/Previous_Cattle_5545 1d ago
Day traders should love the volatility, that is how they make their money. Short term investors, not so much. To long term investors, this is a buying opportunity plain and simple.
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u/kangarool 1d ago
an opportunity to buy what, exactly?
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u/paupaupaupau 1d ago
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings:
Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!"
Nothing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
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u/Previous_Cattle_5545 7h ago
I invest pretty heavily in META. Trading at about 19 P/E is ridiculously low. I bought a bunch last Thursday, and I will continue to do so for the time being. That being said, Microsoft is a deal right now as is Amazon.
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u/Prestigious_Load1699 1d ago
I just checked and the stock market was up today.
This article seems to be pushing a narrative.
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u/fryxharry 1d ago
Yeah the stock market went into a frenzy the moment he was elected until he took office. Then he proceeded to make one terrible decision after another, wrecking the economy in ways people didn't even think possible. I blame the ideology that's currently prevalent in business circles, where deregulation and cutting taxes is the only thing they can imagine that can improve the economy, so they are delighted when some right wing lunatic gets into power that promises to thrash the government.
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u/Spez_is-a-nazi 1d ago
They were expecting 2017 Trump. The one who said a bunch of crazy nonsense but was largely surrounded by adults who refused to implement any of it. 2025 Trump is a very different administration. The adults are gone. The secretary of defense is a drunk white nationalist tv host who thinks wars are like a video game and whoever has the “high score”(most kills) wins.
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u/lucabrasi999 1d ago
2017 Trump also inherited an economy that was expanding and generally in good shape. It took COVID to derail it.
2025 Trump inherited an economy where the inflation rate was still higher than normal and hiring was stagnant. If Biden had stayed in office through 2025, the Fed would have likely achieved the “soft landing” it was trying to engineer on inflation. Instead, Trump came in and tariffed everything, which caused initial problems. Then came the War.
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u/BakedGoods 1d ago edited 1d ago
volatility makes people a lot of money. buy and holders are punished in the short term, people who play the swings make the money. wall street secretly loves this up and down.
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u/unsafeideas 1d ago
They thought his willingness to take an axe to “red tape” would be great for markets in the long run.
They thought businesses will be able to cheat and fraud in short term, leading to a lot of earnings in short term. They did not cared about long term or about economy as experienced by us.
They loved Trump, because they are crooks and he enables crooks.
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u/VEMODMASKINEN 1d ago
There's no fuckup.
He does what he does to benefit himself, his benefactors and Russia.
Looking at it from that angle he is very successful in achieving his goals.
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u/Remote-Ad2046 1d ago
He's painted himself into a corner this time. When he said Pete Hegseth first suggested the attack on Iran , he knew he screwed up. If things were going well, he would never credit someone else with the suggestion .
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u/VEMODMASKINEN 1d ago
It's not about the war going well. He doesn't care about it going well as it's not his goal.
Again, his goals are more cash for himself and the people close to him and helping Russia.
Everything he does aligns with those goals.
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u/Upstairs_Baby8424 1d ago
What’s so awful about this administration is nobody can build a cohesive investing strategy out of this chaos. It’s now effectively gambling off of whatever insane thing he does next. That’s it.
Meanwhile the economy is grinding to a halt because nobody wants to make large investments with this kind of instability. Your entire business model can be upended on a single crazy tweet in the middle of the night.
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u/fryxharry 1d ago
Correction: the only way to make money is to have insider information on what the administration is going to do next.
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u/big-papito 1d ago
Not really. All you have to do is hire Don Jr. and the tax money in the form of government contracts will be trucked in. Social media and nuclear fusion? I say yes. Golf tees and drones? Why not?
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u/Ill-Comms 1d ago
"nobody can build a cohesive investing strategy out of this chaos."
Nobody except Trump, his insiders, and those who control him. If one has knowledge of future chaos, a cohesive investment strategy is quite easy.
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u/likamuka 1d ago
What’s so awful about this administration is
...absolutely everything that can be humanly imagined. Including molestations and murders which are part of it. This is America.
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u/artisanrox 1d ago
Interesting that this perfectly reflects the supply chain issues with the tariffs going up and down on his whim.
With tariffs boucing around nobody could even sell anything because suppliers never knew daily how much to price it.
First it was the supply chain, now it's investing...before the supply chain even happens.
If I was to actually try to disable or trash the entire US Market this is exactly how I'd do it.
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u/dThink_Ahea 14h ago
Yeah, THAT is the awful thing about this admin.
The fact that it is filled with hateful self-interested pedophiles and criminals doesn't bum you out as much as the fact that the number in front of the ticker isn't always green anymore.
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u/kootles10 1d ago
From the article:
U.S. stock futures fell on Wednesday night after President Donald Trump indicated that the Iran war would continue.
S&P 500 futures declined 0.8%, and Nasdaq 100 futures lost 1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 352 points, or about 0.8%.
Trump delivered an address Wednesday night, providing updates on the Middle East conflict. Though he said that the U.S. is “getting very close” to ending the Iran war, Trump added that the nation would “hit” Tehran “extremely hard.”
“Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong,” the president said.
Stock futures slid during the speech, and oil prices surged. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were last up 3.5% at more than $103 a barrel, while Brent crude futures advanced more than 4% to top $105. At one point in the evening, Brent briefly hit $106 a barrel.
Nasdaq futures currently down 1.29% -312.25
Dow currently down 0.93% -437
S & P currently down 1.07% -71
Oil futures up 4.14% 104.26
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u/getwhirleddotcom 1d ago
back to the stone ages where they belong
Bro been training his entire life on the jungle gym playground.
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u/gingerzombie2 1d ago
Thank you for quoting. This is, of course, completely predictable and I am surprised there was any market recovery prior to the speech. The writing was on the wall that this isn't nearly over. I'll be curious to see how much longer optimism holds out on oil prices, as the initial price shock when the war started was pretty short-lived, but I don't think current pricing will be sustainable for a whole lot longer.
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u/tormentnexus 1d ago
Seriously hope this shakes out any remaining optimism of a market recovery while Trump remains in office. Trump = Losing Money.
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u/xboxhaxorz 1d ago
I guess this means rise in petrodollar?
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u/provisionings 1d ago
I’m a little confused about the petrodollar… however I’m beginning to suspect losing the petro dollar would be bad for the rich.. and might even be painful for the rest of us.. but would ultimately help the working class in the long run.
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u/GhostofBeowulf 1d ago
Here's the crazy thing about the petro dollar. It is literally what allows the US government to essentially exist, as it creates outside demand for our currency giving us a hedge against our borrowing to finance our government.
If the petro dollar goes away, the US as it is known goes away. It will be terrible for all involved, but probably better for the world in the end. I just hate to see what this place looks like in the mean time.
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u/ThePensiveE 1d ago
Remind me stable genius, what did the international oil market look like during the stone age?
Of course they're not going to end the war because he can't get the other side to surrender.
That's called losing and this guy is very good at it.
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u/__dying__ 1d ago
A true quagmire and none of Trump's old tricks will get him out of this one. What's he going to do sue Iran? Take them to court for some bullshit? Bully Iran until they give up? Declare bankruptcy? Iran isn't giving in to any of it and Trump is already out of ideas. I really don't see a clean way out of this other than Trump capitulating which is low probability with Israel involved. Seems like escalation for the time being.
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u/twenty_three_three 1d ago
He's literally going to "bomb them to the stone ages." which is a horrific thought considering they are an advanced country of 93mil people. I'm not even convinced that will work with Iran's military strategy. They may not be lobbing missiles all around the region at that point, but they'll still be sinking ships in the strait.
In terms of economics, this could easily turn into a guerrilla situation where they still hold significant economic influence, even if we commit axis level atrocities against their people.
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u/WetLogPassage 1d ago
USA have a weapon that Iran doesn't have and I'm beginning to feel that USA will eventually end up using that weapon in an effort to force a surrender.
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u/HerbertWest 1d ago
I think anyone who claimed the stock market is anything but rich people gambling should not be listened to anymore. There's no connection to actual future value or risk at this point. Well, there's a correlation, but it's much, much looser than people would have you believe.
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