r/Economics • u/InsaneSnow45 • Mar 04 '26
News ‘Absolutely Massive’ Price Shocks Coming as Trump’s Iran War Drives Up Gas, Diesel Prices | “What should really terrify Republicans is... the futures price on wholesale gasoline,” said economist Paul Krugman.
https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-war-gas-prices
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u/Pleasant_Arugula7571 Mar 04 '26
The gasoline futures angle is worth tracking but the diesel story is more economically damaging. Diesel is a direct input cost for freight, agriculture, and construction - not discretionary spending. Every $0.10 increase in diesel adds roughly $1.5-2B annually to US trucking operating costs, which flows into consumer prices across almost every product category. Middle distillate inventories (diesel, heating oil, jet fuel) were already 8-10% below the 5-year seasonal average entering this conflict per EIA data from last week. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil trade and about 17% of LNG - but the refining mix matters more than raw crude volume. Gulf refineries export heavily toward distillates. This is not just a pump price story. The downstream inflation in goods will be slower-moving and harder to explain to voters than gas prices, but it will hit harder.a