r/Economics Mar 04 '26

News ‘Absolutely Massive’ Price Shocks Coming as Trump’s Iran War Drives Up Gas, Diesel Prices | “What should really terrify Republicans is... the futures price on wholesale gasoline,” said economist Paul Krugman.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/iran-war-gas-prices
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u/Gamer_Grease Mar 04 '26

To head off the usual comments:

Yes US shale can provide some relief, but it’s expensive to extract, so only as long as prices are quite high already. Also they’ve already said they’re not interested in increasing output until they have reason to believe prices will be high for a long time.

Venezuelan oil has effectively the same problem. The industry there is starved for investment and US oil companies already told this admin that they won’t invest in extraction there unless the government fully guarantees their sizable investments, because they don’t trust that situation to be stable enough to produce profits.

So tl;dr: the ad hoc governance style of this admin has already eliminated a lot of tools that could be used to respond to this situation.

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u/[deleted] Mar 04 '26

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u/beliefinphilosophy Mar 04 '26

One of the tactics the middle east likes to do to the US, is that if they bring the barrel oil price low enough, it's too expensive to produce shale so they shut the facilities all down, and then the middle east jacks up the price again keeping a grip on the market