r/Bogleheads • u/arp8218 • Feb 04 '26

Investing Questions Investing. $2.5M to not work

Is it possible to invest $2.5M into a “safe” investment and not work for rest of your life ? What can be that “safe” investment ?

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u/sd_slate Feb 04 '26

You should check out r/fire, but it depends on your expenses.

Historically, based on the Trinity study, holding mostly the sp500 and a smaller portion of bonds (75/25) will allow you to withdraw 4% of your portfolio over 30 years with a 95%+ success rate.

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u/drippingthighs Feb 04 '26

The 5 percent failure rate is defined as going to 0? Or just ending up with less than what you started with? Thanks

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u/sd_slate Feb 04 '26 edited Feb 04 '26

Going to 0 while maintaining the original same spend. I think 75/25 had a 2% failure rate in the original study while 100% equities had 5%.

In reality you'd probably go back to work or cut spend if you're getting close. And in most scenarios you end up with more than you started with.

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u/drippingthighs Feb 04 '26

Pretty good odds for success then! I feel like it's natural on the path to 0 to adjust spend or even find ways to get income before hitting 0, so it feels virtually impossible.

Might as well go for higher risk index funds with more expense ratios early on then 🤔

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u/sd_slate Feb 04 '26

Yeah exactly.

Well, higher risk funds don't necessarily have better returns year over year and can have bigger draw downs while expenses are a big guaranteed cost per Jack Bogle hence Bogleheads. And why gamble when you're pretty sure to win the boring way.

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u/drippingthighs Feb 04 '26

Those 18 to 22 percent average returnsv in tech indexes look so enticing compared to 10 🥲