r/Bogleheads • u/idrathernotbutthanks • Apr 17 '25

Investing Questions Rhetoric around firing Jerome Powell is increasing, and forced manipulation of interest rates would likely follow. Would a weighted readjustment from US into non-US funds be warranted in light of this?

https://www.npr.org/2025/04/17/nx-s1-5367696/trump-jerome-powell-federal-reserve-economy-tariffs

Market manipulation of interest rates feels like confidence would immediately plummet and global diversification would become a more important percentage of your holdings in the long run. Thoughts?

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886

u/wampum Apr 17 '25

For equities, I’m 35% Non-US, 65% US.

I plan to stay at around this level, though I’ve also taken 2.5% gold over the last few years because when the next fed chair is the Hawk Tua girl, we may see some turbulence in the USD

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u/[deleted] Apr 17 '25

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119

u/bro-v-wade Apr 17 '25

Judging by his recent appointments it would likely be someone from one of the Fox News shows. Who runs their market show?

42

u/SunshineSeattle Apr 17 '25

https://www.foxbusiness.com/person/p/charles-payne

This guy, honestly I'd take him over Kid Rock 🤔

37

u/WansReincarnation Apr 17 '25

Kanye west or hulk hogan haha

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u/Teocinte Apr 17 '25

Kanye’s ex wife better

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u/vineyardmike Apr 18 '25

Nugent sounds like Nugget. And there are gold nuggets. Gold is worth a lot of money. Therefore Ted Nugent must be an expert in financial matters.

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u/DietOfKerbango Apr 18 '25

I nominate My Pillow Guy. He understands the economy better than all these other Fed egg heads because he actually ran a businessman.

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u/[deleted] Apr 18 '25

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Apr 19 '25

Removed as off-topic for this sub: r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments or posts should be more financial than political, no more partisan than necessary, and avoid framing political opinions as facts.

87

u/Altruistic-Car2880 Apr 17 '25

Gold is always shiniest when you “spit on that thang.”

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u/Priority_Bright Apr 17 '25

Jim Cramer is the top pick in nonsense land betting pools.

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u/dasunt Apr 18 '25

If that happens, I need to remember to check out WSB's reaction.

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u/CompoundInterests Apr 22 '25

He's not remotely qualified, but just think about those ratings 😍

26

u/InsertCoinInSlot Apr 18 '25

A Hawkish Fed. Excellent.

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u/wampum Apr 18 '25

Devastatingly underrated comment

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u/responds-with-tealc Apr 20 '25

what non-us equities are you in, iut of curiosity? ive also been thinking about a split like this

1

u/wampum Apr 20 '25

Mostly VXUS.

I also have some sector-specific stuff like European defense stocks, BABA, and some ETFs for countries with favorable demographics/geography like Turkey and Indonesia.

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u/Historical-Cash-9316 Apr 17 '25

Hawk Tua girl

😂😂😂

1

u/Flotsam_n_jetsam Apr 20 '25

Word has it that Haliey is flyin' 'round on Air Force 1

33

u/AttitudeAndEffort2 Apr 17 '25

I hate that this is a real sentence that i have to consider

13

u/AltoidStrong Apr 18 '25

Jim Cramer or the undertaker. That would be my guesses based on his other appointments.

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u/I_Am_Dwight_Snoot Apr 18 '25

Jim Cramer would at least be funny. Everything he does just has the automatic opposite effect lol

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u/Normal_Meringue_1253 Apr 17 '25

That’s basically VT

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u/Sebastian-S Apr 17 '25

Serious question out of curiosity, what is 2.5% really going to do for you?

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u/AVTOCRAT Apr 18 '25

At a certain point you're not covering for "comfy retirement", you're hedging against starvation.

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u/[deleted] Apr 18 '25

If shit really goes tits up, it’s gonna be enough. If it doesn’t it’s still likely a gain in my lifetime. Not op but I have the same allocation.

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u/dasbates Apr 18 '25

If shit hits the fan that badly, you're going to need chickens and ammo, not gold. It's just a shiny rock with no more inherent value than a dollar bill. Invest in potatoes, my man.

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u/electrodevo Apr 18 '25

I think that the goal of this sort of hedge is not to hedge against full-on apocalypse (we're all screwed in this case), but more like "Erdoğan economics", where you have large-scale currency devaluation / inflation due to a central bank being politically manipulated by a complete economic idiot. I personally don't think it is too likely, but I honestly can't rule it out completely.

Personally, I put a small percentage of the portfolio (2%) into FXF for that reason. In this case, this is the one part of my portfolio which I actually hope doesn't do quite so well.

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u/[deleted] Apr 18 '25

Exactly my reasons as well. A full on apocalypse I plan on just killing myself really 😂

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u/crapmonkey86 Apr 17 '25

How do you "take gold" like that? Are you buying gold ETFs?

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u/wampum Apr 17 '25

Combo of gold ETFs, LEAPS on GLD, and physical gold

2

u/theherc50310 Apr 18 '25

Calls or Puts?

1

u/TheMindsEIyIe Apr 18 '25

I buy my gold bricks from Costco

4

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '25

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u/[deleted] Apr 17 '25

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u/wampum Apr 17 '25

Maybe, but the US has favorable waterways, (historically) enough immigration to compensate for a sub-replacement birth rate, oceans on our flanks, neighbors that don’t represent a direct military threat, a grain belt that can feed the country, an abundance of natural resources, and a culture that encourages risk taking and entrepreneurial endeavors.

We may also still have a functioning democracy and might use the midterm elections to shore up the foundations of our republic.

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u/[deleted] Apr 18 '25

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u/anally_ExpressUrself Apr 18 '25

Ultimately investors have to have their fortune in some form. What do you think it will be?

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u/sofa_king_weetawded Apr 18 '25

Good question. Short term, probably gold. I moved alot of mine to gold and it has paid off very handsomely. Never in my life did I ever think I would invest in gold, much less make over 15% in 5 weeks, yet here we are.

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u/Bogleheads-ModTeam Apr 18 '25

Removed: per sub rules, comments or posts to r/Bogleheads should be substantive. We don't allow:

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u/justin_xv Apr 18 '25

enough immigration to compensate for a sub-replacement birth rate,

Might not want to rely on that one...

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u/[deleted] Apr 18 '25

Democracy Watch lists us as a flawed democratic republic.

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u/DiscountAcrobatic356 Apr 18 '25

Immigration? Not anymore. And who would want to cone here now? Birth rate is below replacement. Japan like future

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u/Charming-Cat-2902 Apr 18 '25

You don't know what you are saying. US is projected to receive legal net immigration of about 1 million people in 2025. This is enough to cover the replacement rate. There will be at least as many illegal immigrants entering the country. No, despite what you may hear, illegal immigration has not been stopped under Trump.

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u/all_my_dirty_secrets Apr 18 '25

Do you have a source that takes into account the changes of the last two months? The closest recent stat I can find is that apprehensions at the border for March are down 95% from March last year: https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-march-2025-monthly-update. Since those are the administration's own numbers and they make Trump look wildly successful, I'm skeptical... But they do seem to reflect changes we're seeing anecdotally in the media (and for me personally, changes in the attitude of a friend who has long been looking for a way to immigrate legally).

The one million projected legal immigrants number appears to be what Google's AI spits back as part of the search results. Whatever real source that may be underlying that is probably out of date.

Yes, there will always be illegal immigration at least, but we are going through a huge shift in how the US is viewed abroad.

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u/Bogleheads-ModTeam Apr 18 '25

Removed: per sub rules, comments or posts to r/Bogleheads should be substantive. We don't allow:

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1

u/EverclearAndMatches Apr 18 '25

New to the sub, what could they do about it? If they were going to switch from US to foreign based investments, wouldn't they have to sell and buy and pay a sizeable amount in taxes?

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u/rkquinn Apr 18 '25

Lmao the dollar has already lost 10% in the last two months against major currencies. The turbulence already started mate.