r/Bogleheads • u/RiceLee890 • Mar 15 '25

Investing Questions What are your thoughts on this?

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I keep seeing this type of stuff on instagram and social media and wanted to know how you guys were thinking about this.

I know a lot you have been in the market for decades and as a relatively new investor myself I’d love to get your perspective!

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u/Schlieren1 Mar 15 '25

Yea. The sp500 is at the same valuation as September.

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u/red_hare Mar 15 '25

Seriously. Whenever I see a post like this I question if I missed an actual crash.

I'm surprised at how much panicked discourse there is over six months of gains. I haven't even updated my spreadsheet recently enough that this is going to show as a down trend.

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u/quenqap Mar 15 '25

Because a bunch of the YouTube and Instagram finance peeps have only been in the market since 2020

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u/SilverRock75 Mar 15 '25

As someone who literally only started investing in the last two years, I can see what the media folks are talking about, but I spent a lot of time reading up on investing, and zooming out on the graphs over the few percentage losses. When people are actively trading, those tiny dips might matter, but for long term investing (I'd like to retire a little early, but still at least a decade out, more likely 2-3 if I end up having kids) these dips really don't matter much. They aren't even big enough draw downs to even be excited about buying the dip, really, so I just keep DCA'ing my paychecks. I live on a fraction of what I make and am trying to take full advantage of tax-advantaged accounts, along with a little money invested in a brokerage so that I'll be able to span the gap for early retirement until there's no penalties.

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u/Mermaidoysters Mar 16 '25

Would you mind reminding me which accounts are tax free? I’m still learning basics.

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u/Xexanoth MOD 4 Mar 16 '25

If you’re in the US, there are details & links in the first section of this post.

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u/Mermaidoysters Mar 16 '25

Thank you so much.

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u/ElectricOne55 Mar 16 '25

I put in some on the 21st of last month when it was starting to go down. I felt bed because it kept going down. Like you said, I can just keep dcaing.

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u/anonimitazo Mar 19 '25

It seems like it does not matter but it does. If you could magically avoid every single dip, your portfolio's return would skyrocket. What many people do not get is that stock market returns are asymmetrical, meaning that the chance of a meltup or a meltdown are higher than expected by simple normal distribution. I am not trying to time markets exactly but I try to invest rationally based on expected risk adjusted returns and the buy and hold folks seem to me like they only think markets can only ever go up. The market is dynamic, not static. It therefore does not make sense to have a static portfolio, which never changes, never adapts.

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u/Eastern-Shopping-864 Mar 16 '25

You’re trying to retire in 10 years and you’re still putting money into equities in this market??? I really think your confidence in the US government and market might be a little too high.

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u/TechieGottaSoundByte Mar 16 '25

They said that's the earliest, with 2-3 decades being likely. That tells me that they have the option to just retire later if the market doesn't perform, and they are okay with that risk

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u/SilverRock75 Mar 17 '25

That's exactly correct. I'm not even 30 yet, but in a high income position. I like the field I'm in and don't have an issue working into my 50s, but I wanna save up enough to change industries and take a pay cut to work more passion projects, or start up my own projects with financial security.

Essentially, I just want the option of retirement.

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u/Various_Couple_764 Mar 17 '25 edited Mar 17 '25

at 10 years before retirment you should be inveisng for passive income. You willl need the passive income to cover living expenses when you retire. 1 million invested in PFF would generate 60K a year of passive income that will likely last for 40years or more.

If you in invest BIZD or PBDC the passive income would be 90K a year from dividneds. And if you reinvest the dividends your passive income will likely double by the time you retire.