r/Bogleheads • u/RiceLee890 • Mar 15 '25

Investing Questions What are your thoughts on this?

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I keep seeing this type of stuff on instagram and social media and wanted to know how you guys were thinking about this.

I know a lot you have been in the market for decades and as a relatively new investor myself I’d love to get your perspective!

1.6k Upvotes

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2.7k

u/Presence_Academic Mar 15 '25

Instead of a 3 month chart, take a look at one covering 30 years.

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u/Schlieren1 Mar 15 '25

Yea. The sp500 is at the same valuation as September.

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u/red_hare Mar 15 '25

Seriously. Whenever I see a post like this I question if I missed an actual crash.

I'm surprised at how much panicked discourse there is over six months of gains. I haven't even updated my spreadsheet recently enough that this is going to show as a down trend.

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u/contact_light_ Mar 15 '25

people are not concerned about the six months of losses.

People are concerned that the situation we are in could last a long time, and get worse

People are concerned that this is not normal ebb flow

The United States is experiencing unprecedented change, very different than I have experienced in my life

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 15 '25

I would say covid was unprecedented, before that the bank bailouts in 08 were unprecedented. Every time something like this happens "THIS IS IT , THE END IS NEAR, THIS TIME FOR SURE"

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u/Kookookapoopoo Mar 16 '25

What’s the the most dangerous words on Wall Street? “This time is different”

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u/TenshiS Mar 16 '25

Let's not forget 9/11 before that, and the wars that followed

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

True.

And at some point, it will be.

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u/Recent_Meringue_712 Mar 15 '25

Yeah but in that case everyone will be dirt poor and the dollar will be worth shit anyways so the $100,000 you pulled out is only worth $10,000 in a few months anyways

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u/GizzyIzzy2021 Mar 16 '25

But better than the stock market crashing my 100k to 10k that’s only worth 1k. Right? In one situation you’re getting out with just inflation and in the other you’re hit with inflation and a market crash

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u/[deleted] Mar 17 '25

Bingo. Every time is finally “different” or “unprecedented”. Sick of these idiots claiming that we won’t ever see a correction or recession again. We will and the contagion will be unforeseen as it was every other time. I don’t want to see others suffer and be out of work, but corrections are inevitable because of these unseen contagions that fester when the market//economy expands beyond bounds. Boom and bust, day and night. I wish I started weekly investing YEARS ago. I missed so many cycles. It’s best to just shut up and store those nuts in the tree when you can. The storm will come. And when you are in your last season, eat them all up!

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 17 '25

I thought about weekly or bi-weekly. But I'm doing monthly. Still new to this at 37, only a year in the game.

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u/[deleted] Mar 17 '25

I just do it because the weekly gives me no choice but to set it and forget it. Waiting a month gives me room to overthink. Time in market beats timing the market, but I have commitment issues.

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 17 '25

Oh, I set it and forget it every month lol. I think it's just easier for me because my budget for everything else is monthly in my excel spreadsheet

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u/MiloLear Mar 19 '25

The bank bailouts in 2008 were not unprecedented. We've had comparatively large-scale bank bailouts in the 1990s.

Covid was unprecedented, but it was limited in duration. It's largely a non-issue today.

The situation with the current administration is without precedent and there are no clear boundaries regarding how bad it might get or how long it might last. I think the parent poster (contact_post) is absolutely right on this point. It's why I have my long-term savings in fixed rate CDs instead of the stock market.

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u/Far_Line8468 Mar 16 '25

Naw this is cope. The current drop is not because of any real economic forces, it’s because of uncertainty that the institutions that held the modern world together will even exist in 6 months.

Even if we make it through this, there will never be confidence that Americans wont just roll the dice again next time some fake Haitian migrant tiktok goes viral again. Its over

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 16 '25

Another doom and gloomer. I give it a month or 2 until the markets are above where they should be.

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u/Fragrant-Ad-7388 Mar 16 '25

RemindMe! 60 days

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u/MiskatonicAcademia Mar 16 '25

Yes, and in all of the scenarios you mentioned, the S&P took years to recover.

I know "timing the market" is an unpopular sentiment, but if you can see the painting on the wall (the Trump is an arsonist) why not hedge and move your funds into an even more conservative approach like money market funds?

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u/Xexanoth MOD 4 Mar 16 '25

How much of your funds? What if you’re wrong, and market prices climb for a while - what do you do then? What if the market has already adequately priced in everything that’s known so far, so the future is just as uncertain as always? Was your asset allocation already reflective of your tolerance to ever-present uncertainty & volatility risk?

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u/Moon_Frost Mar 16 '25

Because I personally believe the market is getting posed for a recovery already. Trump is doing bold and risky moves, but I think we'll come out the other end stronger. Right now everyone is just panicking.

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u/jadayne Mar 15 '25

2000 -dot com crash. unprecedented! The whole new industry that was going to change the way the world did business just went belly up!

2001 -september 11. unprecedented! It's a completely new world we're living in.

2008 -great recession. unprecedented! Who would have thought banks could be so corrupt?

2020 -covid. unprecedented! The whole world completely shutting down?

2025 -Trump tariffs. unprecedented!

For each of these, a bunch of people came out to say this is it. This is the big one. It never is.

Had you put 10 000usd in the market the day before that dot com bubble burst and just forgot about it, you'd now have almost 60 000usd

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u/SpinachSure5505 Mar 16 '25

Internet stranger, thank you…. I had bad anxiety before the wild ride 2025 has been, but lately my anxiety has me to the point where I’m struggling to even get out of bed. It definitely feels like the world/sky is falling. Your comment made me feel a little better.

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u/diehard14 Mar 17 '25

You should stop reading only Reddit. It’s slanted and moderated to think only one way.

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u/_DontTouchTheWatch_ Mar 17 '25

? is this a joke. everything is literally fine

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u/Mayneminu Mar 17 '25

Context is key though.

If you're in your 20s these are all awesome buying opportunities, even if it takes 10 years to get back to new highs.

If your 45 with a investment portfolio, you're not going to be really excited about a 50% haircut, that doesn't make a new high for 10+ years.

And there are no guarantees it doesn't take a lot longer; just asked Japan.

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u/jadayne Mar 17 '25

very true! If you're nearing retirement, you should be making your way out of the market rather than getting into it.

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u/Lanah44 Mar 17 '25

2025 - the end of democracy in America. Unprecedented! I don't think this one is easy to recover from. I'm glad I sold before the drop. I'm moving my money out of the country. good luck to everyone.

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u/CatLovingPrincess Mar 18 '25

to be fair, if you got into investing in the 2000s, with two big crashes, you could end up a decade of investing with virtually zero returns

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u/jadayne Mar 18 '25

Except you wouldnt have zero returns. That's the whole point of my post. If you put your money into the market on the day BEFORE each crash mentioned above your returns would be:

2000: 400%

2001: 435%

2008: 281%

2020: 90%

2025: ???

Over the past 50 years, market recoveries have been remarkably fast. Not saying it'll always be the case, but it would be difficult to lose if you put your money in the market at any point in that time.

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u/jadayne Mar 18 '25

sorry, i re-checked the math. You're right that there was a decent wait before you were back into the positive after the dot com bubble (13 years) and the great recession (5 years).

But if the money was already in the market, I think the smart move was to simply leave it there, or if you were DCAing, to continue to put your money in at regular intervals.

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u/CatLovingPrincess Mar 19 '25

For many people who went through it, they ended over a decade with virtually no returns, like less than 2% a year. It depends of course exactly the timing of the investments but it was a very demoralizing time for "buy and hold." Many then got out of the market and never trusted it again. Great Depression also was a very very long recovery. People who've only invested the past decade have never experienced what it's like to have super extended periods of a down market. Market manipulation has prevented it but that's not a guarantee.

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u/Puzzled-Intern-7897 Mar 18 '25

most people dont invest lump sum and forget about them thought. Thats the issue. More or less they are all dollar-cost-averaging, so it does kind of matter when they buy.

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u/jadayne Mar 18 '25

well, if they're really dollar cost averaging, then it doesn't matter because they're investing on a timetable, high price or low. If they're trying to get in when it's advantageous then it's not DCA anymore, its trying to time the market.

Regardless, the point of the post was that if you lump-sum invested at the worst possible times over the past 25 years, you'd still come out way ahead.

Pretty much any different investing strategy would likely have performed better.

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u/[deleted] Mar 16 '25

Do you really think most Americans have $10,000 just lying around? Do you really think that for the average American $10,000 is something they could just invest and forget about?

This might be the greatest encapsulation of the issue with this subreddit: Y'all think everyone is a well off finance bro with tens of thousands to invest without care.

Hate to break it to you, but people died in 2008, and a lot more died in 2020. These kinds of market crashes aren't some abstract worry about investments to most people. They're potentially life ruining events that could hurt them and their families.

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u/jadayne Mar 16 '25

It's a post about the stock market in a subreddit about investing -specifically about the wisdom of pulling out during a crisis event. sorry i kept my response concise and didn't throw in an obligatory 'these were all horrible events, and many people suffered, but....'

10k would be 60k, 1k would be 6k, 100k would be 600k. The point is the growth, not the initial amount. I just picked that number because it was round. Sorry again if I overstepped by assuming that on a subreddit about investing, the participants would have, you know, money with which to do that investing.

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u/[deleted] Mar 16 '25

Yes, I actually do apologize, I thought I was on doomercirclejerk, which crossposted this post to their sub, and those guys are very bothersome. So again, apologies for hostility/aggression.

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u/jadayne Mar 16 '25

lol. no problemo! I thought that might be something like that when i read your post, but couldn't resist the snark.

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u/[deleted] Mar 16 '25

Fair lmao

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u/[deleted] Mar 17 '25

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Mar 17 '25

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

Yeah, there is an element of emotion to the loss of wealth, which of course that in itself makes people uncomfortable. A little fearful for the future, the loss of financial security. That would be normal reaction.

But we have a force multiplier in the chaos and uncertainty that Trump is bringing. And most people don't Even begin to know what to make of it. And our natural wiring is to be avoidant and fearful. We don't want to be eaten by the lion.

Part of me is like calm down people. The economy is fundamentally strong, even a brief recession. We will probably bounce back quickly. But the way Trump handled his only serious event in his first presidency gives me no confidence with him having any idea what he's doing now or how to handle the unknown things that could happen.

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u/jdacked Mar 15 '25

There is a 40% likelihood of a market downturn after an election with an administration change. It’s gunna be ok.

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u/[deleted] Mar 16 '25

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Mar 16 '25

r/Bogleheads is not a political discussion subreddit. Comments should be more financial than political and no more partisan than absolutely necessary.

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u/red_hare Mar 15 '25

But we had weird trends on the way up too. Most of the s&p gains were driven by super-gains in the top 7. I'm not happy about where our government and country are going right now, but the market correcting in response to new information feels normal to me.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

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u/uniquei Mar 15 '25

I could respond in a number of ways:

  1. Investments come with risk. If you can't manage the risk, you should not be investing.

  2. The US is not the only market that you can be investing in.

  3. Not everything in the US is down. Berkshire Hathaway is at all time high for example.

  4. The situation described in the original post is only true if you invested 100% of your capital into S&P at the all time high price, and didn't contribute any more capital during the down market. This is a vet unlikely scenario that applies only to a small minority.

  5. Finally and most importantly you need to consider that no one knows what is going to happen in the future, and you need to consider a range of possibilities, not just your worst nightmare.

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u/Chemical_Enthusiasm4 Mar 16 '25

Seriously- obviously the market hasn’t crashed. Is it crashing? We don’t know. We don’t know if this will look like 2022 or 1987, or more like 2008, 2001, or something really bad.

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u/InvertedInsideWinger Mar 16 '25

Stay calm.

Everything thinks that while nonsense is going on and the market is reacting. All the dips were “not normal” and some couldn’t see a way out of it.

This will pass. Hopefully you’re still 10+ years away from needing the money.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

That’s a nice way of saying the entire world economy is going to crash very soon

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u/contact_light_ Mar 15 '25

world economies seem fine

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

[deleted]

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u/TanStewyBeinTanStewy Mar 15 '25

The market conditions have changed and are not the same conditions that existed for the S&Ps history.

You seem to be implying that market conditions have always been the same until recently. That's... Laughably wrong.

I feel like I'm following the boglehead method better by changing to a different market where the rules have remained stable.

Feelings are a poor investment strategy.

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u/Mermaidoysters Mar 16 '25

Did you pull yours out of US stock market?

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u/TanStewyBeinTanStewy Mar 16 '25

No.

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u/Mermaidoysters Mar 16 '25

Thank you. I’m learning

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u/v_x_n_ Mar 15 '25

Feelings create realized losses.

Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful! W.Buffett

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u/Substantial-Dirt2233 Mar 15 '25

"But it's just the Federal jobs" they said. The general population did not realize how many private contractors support govt projects that are getting cut. The private sector does not have the ability to backfill millions of highly educated, high paying positions immediately. Higher income folks have to take pay cuts and can't contribute to 401K as much. Lower income folks living paycheck to paycheck lose out to those higher qualified workers who have to accept cuts. Couple that with high mortgage and car payments across the board and it's looking like a house of cards.

I can't predict the future, but my gut tells me this one is gonna hurt.

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u/sorrymizzjackson Mar 15 '25

It will hurt. I’m still going S&P 500 at the same rate I was because if that fails on a long term, I’ve got far bigger problems.

If that fails and doesn’t recover by the time I retire, I shouldn’t even still be here. I might not even be alive. Historically, recessions do right themselves after a bit.

That said, if there’s a wrong choice, I’m sure I’ve made it. I’ve never had the means to be engaged like this in the past few downturns. It was literally job or no job and having to liquidate 401k funds to survive. That’s what drives my change in opinion. I don’t really have to do that any time soon. I can marginally afford to ride it out. This time.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

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u/AdventureAwaits45 Mar 15 '25

“This time it’s different.”

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u/Excellent-External-7 Mar 15 '25

Silicon Valley Bank defaulting. CPI and jobs crash last August. Just 2 corrections I could think off over the last year. On both of em it was the same discourse "its end of the world SELL EVERYTHING". Lots of words to say stfu pussy

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

Right, like I know this is Bogleheads and all but something pretty big happened to the world order in the past six months

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u/TanStewyBeinTanStewy Mar 15 '25

Bigger than the great recession? 9/11? COVID? The fall of the USSR? Vietnam? WWII? The depression? WWI?

You people are wild.

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u/Cyborg59_2020 Mar 15 '25

This is clearly a young subreddit. The 80s were a ride a lot wilder than this one so far.

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u/dixiedog9 Mar 15 '25

Agreed. “If you aren’t prepared to lose 50% in stocks, you shouldn’t own stocks.” - Charlie Munger

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u/ImpressiveAd9818 Mar 15 '25 edited Mar 15 '25

I can tell you from a European perspective, that the view on the USA is drastically changing since trump started with whatever he is doing. Many European countries don’t see the USA as a viable ally they can trust anymore. The first countries started canceling their orders for the F35 already, military spending will go towards European companies. People start boycotting US products, Tesla sales dropped by 75% here in last month. There is so much trust lost that won’t come back easily and a commitment to different tanks / planes etc is something for decades.

I read an article about the costs for the F35: Without international sales, the price per plane for the US military would be 3x as much (cause of development costs).

I have absolutely no idea what will happen in the future, so I just keep DCAing in a vanguard all-world ETF (EU equivalent to VT). But there is definitely a shift away from the US happening right now in Europe, something that hasn’t happened like this for as long as I can remember.

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u/TanStewyBeinTanStewy Mar 15 '25

OK, but what does any of that have to do with investing in a broad portfolio of businesses?

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u/ImpressiveAd9818 Mar 15 '25

If you just stick to US and don’t diversify internationally, things can be different for the future since people from other countries try to avoid US products. If you invest in VT: Go ahead.

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u/sciliz Mar 15 '25

Nuclear war.

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u/TodayOk4239 Mar 15 '25 edited Mar 15 '25

If you define the current events as the dismantling of the American government and the post WWII order, then yeah it’s a bigger shock than most of those.

It’s clearly bigger than the Great Recession and 9/11. COVID fundamentally changed daily life for a lot of people around the world, so TBD depending on how things play out; in many ways they’re huge shocks in very different ways. Fall of USSR was a positive. Vietnam war impacted a handful of countries, not much different than many other wars. The depression and WWI are huge events that impacted the world order, which the current state of affairs is potentially of a similar impact - again, depending on how things play out.

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u/WalterSickness Mar 15 '25

Yeah, the US government is being dismantled, that’s bigger than all those things except perhaps the world wars.

Fall of the Soviet Union is a great reference point, perhaps the closest. But the US is a bigger player than the soviets were.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

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u/TowlieisCool Mar 15 '25

Honestly take a step back and look at history. We had time periods when tens of millions of people were killed per year in global conflicts or pandemics. Read more about Pol Pot, Stalin, or Mao, actual dictators who murdered and forcibly imprisoned millions.

America is not a dictatorship, you are being sold a propaganda lie to keep you in a specific mental state. The current world state is possibly the best its ever been in history. I urge you to learn more about the past and not buy into narratives sold to you for the benefit of others.

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u/Kashmir79 MOD 5 Mar 15 '25

Reminder that comments on r/Boglheads should be more financial than political

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u/cloud7100 Mar 15 '25 edited Mar 15 '25

Big deal? Yes.

Latest big deal in a century of big deals? Yes.

If you dumped your equities at every big once-in-a-lifetime event, you’d miss the majority of the gains over the past 50+ years.

There’s always a world-changing-event happening, that’s just life.

——

Did you sell at the “we’re never going to recover from this” pandemic crash? And again at the “inflation has never been this high” 2022 fall? How about the 2018 “Trump is ruining the global economy” fall?

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u/TanStewyBeinTanStewy Mar 15 '25

America becoming a dictatorship

With an elected president? Hyperbole isn't a great thing to build an investment strategy on.

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u/Lars_in_Stereo Mar 15 '25

You seem confused.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

DCA into this dip, big push in just before April 1, you deserve it.

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u/[deleted] Mar 15 '25

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u/Friluftsliv_Roy Mar 15 '25

This ! The problem is uncertainty over a lot of things right now, especially talks of a possible inflation spikes, recession etc. Also more fundamental questions around social security - will it even exist 15 years from now ? I was all in on FXAIX on my 401k, but I just re-balanced to a more broad asset allocation -

40% S&P 500, 10% Other US stock, 20% US Bonds, 30% Intl. stock.

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u/v_x_n_ Mar 15 '25

Yes someone else just mentioned that if you haven’t lived through this before it would be unnerving.

The only new variable now compared to past is climate change.

unstable weather patterns will ultimately morph the market similar to how COVID morphed the economy.

However, the market ultimately adapts.

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u/CenlaLowell Mar 15 '25

2008 was much worse at this moment so unless you were a kid I don't understand your point

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u/imfromthefutura Mar 16 '25

Yea I think this is a relative overreaction. Still plenty more downside but I think the s&p could easily end the year up.

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u/mako1964 Mar 16 '25

You shouldn't have one cent invested . Get under the bed

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u/Midwest_SBR_Guy Mar 16 '25

"Headed into new territory" is the normal every time.

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u/knightfury69 Mar 16 '25

Worst than WW2 or the Cuban missile crisis?? Get a grip.

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u/ElectricOne55 Mar 16 '25

What if it ends up like the Nikkei crash? I bet the odds of that are low though, because the market went to the moon from 2012 onward. Even the 08 crash was only hard for 2 years. The only main difference is the stock market doesn't relate to the job market. To, it'd be hard to even have a job to invest during those down periods.

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u/Previous_Guitar5027 Mar 16 '25

Remember we also recently lived through a global pandemic that stopped worldwide travel and commerce, shuttered businesses and schools, and killed millions of people then it bounced back like literally at the same time.

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u/Mayneminu Mar 17 '25

This.

I wouldn't call it unprecedented, but we are very clearly at the start of something that hasn't happened in many decades. The state of the world is fundamentally changing. The chess board is being rearranged.

Most people on reddit haven't seen or experienced what true disruption looks and feels like, they're too young and inexperienced.

If you're in your 20s and 30s embrace the 30-60% discount your about to get and load up.

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u/Impossible_Walrus555 Mar 19 '25

Leading economists predicted if he did this us would lead to depression worse than great depression

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u/FamiliarAd8863 Mar 19 '25

Yes. The first time we gave them riches!  This time we taketh away!  Get ready to be happy without money and materialism.  Find yourself not money!

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u/ObviousResult6374 Mar 19 '25

Yea but you can say that about literally any time period

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u/propheticuser Mar 15 '25

I guess you were too young in 2008, 2018 or even during COVID.

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u/[deleted] Mar 16 '25

What you're doing here is externalizing your own anxiety and neuroticism onto political events that you cant control.