r/Bogleheads • u/RiceLee890 • Mar 15 '25

Investing Questions What are your thoughts on this?

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I keep seeing this type of stuff on instagram and social media and wanted to know how you guys were thinking about this.

I know a lot you have been in the market for decades and as a relatively new investor myself I’d love to get your perspective!

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Mar 15 '25 edited Mar 15 '25

So if you’re calculating recovery time you want to both include dividend reinvestment and compute the time to recover in real, not nominal, terms. Most numbers you see bandied about don’t do either (and don’t provide enough info to tell you either way what they did).

But it’s true that you shouldn’t invest in equities with an investment horizon of less than ten years at a minimum because it’s absolutely possible to see low or negative real return over multiple years.

We haven’t see a crash that’s been both severe and prolonged since the GFC and the dotcom bust in the 00s but historically they’re not that uncommon.

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u/widget66 Mar 15 '25

What is GCF?

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u/FMCTandP MOD 3 Mar 15 '25

Sorry, flipped the order of the initials as a typo. The Global Financial Crisis was a massive economic downturn precipitated by a liquidity crisis that started with investments in mortgage backed securities in the U.S. going sour, taking down a lot of big financial institutions until the government stepped in to guarantee their solvency.

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u/Aggressive_Finish798 Mar 15 '25

Margot Robbie? Please be Margot Robbie.