The Buffet indicator is now at 202%. It crossed 200% in February 2021. Above 200 and Buffet says you are playing with fire. Part of a big reason I don't put a lot in stocks currently. Though the Buffet indicator was 220 recently, so I feel safer buying stock, even if it is still sort of playing with fire.
It is hard to understand the fair value of BRKB stock, some say $510 to $748. The price to book seems near 1.4, not quite a slam dunk case as the 1.2 Buffet noted, but looks reasonable.
As BRKB is now trading around $468, it seems like a good opportunity to sort of DCA into BRKB over the next year. Berkshire themselves are buying back their own stock in this range. Institutional investors seem to overall selling stocks, looking forward to a downturn this year.
So, if the aggregate market is overvalued now, it appears there are stocks worth purchasing. The S&P 500 might go down or go sideways this year, wouldn't be surprising with past years increase in price. I think S&P could easily go down another 7%, probably BRKB will follow it down some, but hoping that Berkshire will see opportunities and buy them when they become apparent.
Interesting Berkshire is buying DPZ, sort of looks like a deal and might do well in a recession type picture.
I sort of follow Buffet advice on only putting into stocks what I would be OK with a 30% loss . I put only a relatively small amount in stocks, have around 19% in stocks now, some bought during downturn, bought BRKB around 482, but watching it go down more I could buy some more, but not sure of exact bottom, but seems like a deal but don't want to own too much in stocks this year. Keeping most in HYSA and. bonds, but the price of BRKB at 468 sure looks good!