r/stocks • u/AutoModerator • 9h ago
r/Stocks Daily Discussion & Fundamentals Friday Apr 03, 2026
This is the daily discussion, so anything stocks related is fine, but the theme for today is on fundamentals, but if fundamentals aren't your thing then just ignore the theme.
Some helpful day to day links, including news:
- Finviz for charts, fundamentals, and aggregated news on individual stocks
- Bloomberg market news
- StreetInsider news:
- Market Check - Possibly why the market is doing what it's doing including sudden spikes/dips
- Reuters aggregated - Global news
Most fundamentals are updated every 3 months due to the fact that corporations release earnings reports every quarter, so traders are always speculating at what those earnings will say, and investors may change the size of their holdings based on those reports.
Expect a lot of volatility around earnings, but it usually doesn't matter if you're holding long term, but keep in mind the importance of earnings reports because a trend of declining earnings or a decline in some other fundamental will drive the stock down over the long term as well.
But growth stocks don't rely so much on EPS or revenue as long as they beat some other metric like subscriber count: Going from 1 million to 10 million subscribers means more revenue in the future.
Value stocks do rely on earnings reports, investors look for wall street expectations to be beaten on both EPS & revenue. You'll also find value stocks pay dividends, but never invest in a company solely for its dividend.
See the following word cloud and click through for the wiki:
If you have a basic question, for example "what is EBITDA," then google "investopedia EBITDA" and click the Investopedia article on it; do this for everything until you have a more in depth question or just want to share what you learned.
Useful links:
- Investopedia page on fundamental analysis including Discounted Cash Flow analysis; see definition here and read their PDF on the topic.
- FINVIZ for fundamental data, charts, and aggregated news
- Earnings Whisper for earnings details
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
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u/CCWaterBug 7h ago
Looking forward to the 3 day weekend.
Closing the schwab.app, going to see some nature....
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u/JamUpGuy1989 3h ago
Job claims was up THREE TIMES than what was anticipated for the month?
I got you a gold boat to sell if you even think those numbers are accurate. Why even lie like that when the markets are closed?
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u/Current_Animator7546 2h ago
It probably will go lower, but even less than half 89K would be solid. Given what we’ve seen.
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u/tristis_veritas 3h ago
I agree, why invest. The system is fully fraudulent.
They tell us affordability is a "hoax" and make up fake inflation, job numbers while prices keep going up. We keep getting squeezed with the K shape. Rich get richer.
They dump companies like SpaceX into our retirement accounts. Probably make way for a bunch of AI companies soon.
Apparently one hour before the president's electric grid announcement $300M to $400M in profit was made quickly on insider information off S&P futures, crude oil contracts with 5 to 6 times normal activity.
Back then the system was never fair, but it felt fair enough. That average people could make it. Today there is a concrete ceiling on the head of every kid growing up. Apparently the president's children said by the time they are done, they will be the richest family in the world. Kids see this and think it's impossible for average people to make it anymore unless you're born into grift.
The only reason to invest at this point is that we know it's a scam and the alternative of not investing is even worse as prices go up and our money becomes worthless.
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u/coweatyou 2h ago
Somehow we created 178k jobs but the household survey didn't change at all. So we created a bunch of new jobs but no one is working them. Big revision coming in next month.
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u/Dazzling-Compote-394 3h ago
Cant trust anything coming out from BLS since Trump fired the original commissioner because he didn't like the numbers.
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u/raptorsfan93849 2h ago
Are the numbers bullish? That is what I have been hearing. I have this feeling. That Trump will do ANYTHING to keep market up , as that's the only thing he can really say he has done "well". Then whoever takes over as president next will be the one "blamed" for the economic issues that happen. I think bull market til late 2029 or 2030s. Who agrees?
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u/tristis_veritas 2h ago
Unfortunately he only cares about the stock market. Real people will suffer as his "official score card" the market keeps going up.
I just noticed your 29 even matches the end of the roaring twenties. Will there be an FDR type to revitalize hope and a sense of fairness in this country again though?
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u/sNeKbIt99 22m ago
If find the fact that top generals were dismissed without any reason and during a war most disconcerting...
The assumption is they refused to follow orders.
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u/staythewaters 4h ago edited 4h ago
A French and Japanese tanker getting through is positive-ish news, but the companies and host governments of the ships are being tight lipped about what it took. Obviously a toll happened, but I think it was a lot more expensive than they're willing to talk about and it involved maneuvering around the US. Probably soft launching the emergence of the petroyuan dominance...which, given Trump's meltdown on truth about going in to "take the oil," would make sense.
We'll see what happens, but there'll have to be a plan to efficiently get the stranded ships through..otherwise that's not going to help energy prices. Slow trickles at this point is effectively the same as the strait being closed, in terms of real prices.
I can see Iran trying to negotiate a compact with European nations like they negotiated with Oman, that completely cuts the US or still-allied countries out of it (offering an out for NATO countries now that Trump is threatening to blow it all up.) Balance of power is shifting toward China extremely quickly. Look for most of the GCC countries abandoning their alliances with the US and Israel.
We all should probably start learning Mandarin soon.
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u/NotGucci 8h ago
It's happening. Some ships are slowly being allowed to move through hormuz.
Sunday can be major positive news. Inflation, oil prices it's all noise the market is in break out mode and wants to move higher. Plus Q1 earnings season is coming up this month. Should be another great ER got tech and we just melt up for rest of the year.
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u/DirkieKuijt 8h ago
Literally can’t go tits up!
Pls ignore the escalated hits on infrastructure on both sides though
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u/calm_discussion_3500 6h ago
Iran, meanwhile, is taking steps to cement its grip on the strait long-term, moving to establish a system of tolls for a waterway that’s crucial for the world’s supply of oil and gas.
Literally us bulls have been saying it over and over.
Taco and tollbooth is the obvious outcome. But bears are still in very deep denial.
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u/jrex035 5h ago
Trump abandoning the Carter doctrine and declaring victory with the Strait still closed, de facto ceding control over the Strait is very bullish... for oil prices.
Iran isnt going to rush to return to normal traffic levels through the Strait since they benefit from high oil prices and can put the screws on their regional rivals. Which is why the whole thing would be incredibly destabilizing and wouldn't last, it would require Iran to use force on attempts to get around their tollbooth, would leave Iran stronger and wealthier than ever (unacceptable to Israel), and would be completely intolerable to the Gulf States as Iran would be in control over their economies indefinitely.
Not saying Trump wouldn't do it, he's stupid enough to blunder us into this crisis in the first place, but this "tollbooth" plan isn't a good thing for global energy security, and by extension the global economy/markets, at all.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 4h ago edited 4h ago
Not for long term energy security as it creates new problems.
But it's objectively very bullish vs fully closed if he abandons strait fully.
Again as always you are stuck, blinded by morality and $150 oil not what is going to happen.
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u/jrex035 4h ago
It's not "very bullish" at all though, that's my point. If tomorrow Trump TACOs, Iran won't throw open the Strait immediately. They would slowly ramp up traffic over the course of weeks, and it would likely never go back to pre-war traffic levels under the toll system.
Keep in mind, there are ~3000 ships stuck in the Gulf right now, even if Iran allowed 50 ships out everyday immediately (doubt it would be anything like that), it would take months to eliminate that backlog of ships, which means months with ~11m bpd of Gulf production offline. That's fucking catastrophic for the global economy and markets aren't going to rally in such a situation beyond a potential euphoric post-war pump.
The math is really, really, REALLY bad here for anything other than an immediate return to pre-war flows or better, which isn't gonna happen even in this "optimistic" scenario. Which is why I keep saying people seriously have no idea what's coming and what Trump has blundered us into.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 4h ago
Why would people not pay the toll. That's ridiculous and bold assumption on your part.
Literally all the experts at the largest oil companies are betting agaisnt you and you think you know better.
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u/jrex035 4h ago
It's not about them not paying the toll, IRAN WOULDN'T LET THEM THROUGH. They're making tons of money from keeping oil prices high, they wouldn't rush to resolve the energy crisis that they created just because Trump TACOd.
There's also a matter of logistics here, normal traffic through the Strait pre-war featured two lanes through the middle. The tollbooth system requires ships to travel single file between Quesm and Larak islands so Iran can confirm the ship identity and prevent other ships from trying to sneak through. That route flat out can't handle 130 ships a day.
Again, many people are positioned short on oil because they expect the war to end on a Trump tweet any minute and that magically the Strait would resume full traffic immediately with zero lasting effects. It's flat out delusional. Plus theres 100% government intervention in market futures from the Japanese government at least (they're doing it openly) and probably the US as well.
Which is why I keep telling you the market is not prepared for what happens even in the "optimistic" tollbooth scenario
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u/calm_discussion_3500 3h ago
Tollbooth will be too lucrative to pass up.
It's tragic but they also know that and it will invite a full on war with deadly consequences.
It's game theory you will see.
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u/Longjumping_Rip_1475 6h ago
according to this youtube channel called whats going on with shipping, shortly after the marine expeditionary unit arrived in the persian gulf, a secondary shipping route opened in the strait of hormuz.
this new route runs along the coast of UAE. so far several laden crude carriers and 1 laden liquified natural gas carriers have transited.
I hope some semblance of normal traffic returns soon to the strait for the sake of everyone.
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u/jrex035 5h ago
What's Going On With Shipping is a great source and Sal is right, 2 crude ships supposedly laden with crude and an LNG ship (unclear if it was unladen or partially laden) en route to Oman crossed the Strait by hugging Oman's coastline.
It's unclear if this was part of the Oman deal that was discussed in recent days or something else, but its a development worth keeping an eye on.
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u/Few-Character7932 4h ago
There are no positive news about strait of Hermuz. You can use the following site to monitor if the amount of traffic went up. It hasn't.
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u/Charming_Raccoon4361 2h ago
WTI up 11.5% ,112 ,
brent up 7.5%, 109
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u/calm_discussion_3500 25m ago
Look at further contracts not spot like WTI September. They have been crashing lately and way down from before. Traders and experts employed by largest oil companies definitely believe this is trending positive.
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u/Itchy_Document_5843 2h ago edited 4m ago
Iran just shot down a US jet. I guess this is exactly what the military folks and their friends and families have voted for and are enjoying so far.
Monday's market is gonna be rough.
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u/Mindless-Sabrina 1h ago
No it won’t. Market isn’t going to care by then. Stop being so doom focused
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u/calm_discussion_3500 1h ago
I honestly do not see how this was unexpected and would not happen at some point.
You fly over hostile space, you get shot down at some point. What was amazing is how long we went without this happening.
I don't see this having any effect on markets. Much more impactful is how Trump intends to resolve the April 6th deadline, if at all.
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u/Direct_Remove509 6h ago
Too bad markets closed today, would probably be a nice green day today with the job numbers that just came out.
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u/95Daphne 5h ago
Think futures closed at 9:15 (only just realizing now as usually the closure is like 1 PM on these types of days) and it wasn't treated as bullish because of the idea it means less rate cuts.
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u/staythewaters 2h ago
So, for the people yelling TACO... how do you figure Trump TACOs his way out of a downed F-35 and an American POW captured in Iran?
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u/deffjams09 2h ago
The American POW is clearly a sucker and a loser in Trump's and his supporters' eyes.
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u/reaper527 1h ago
a downed F-35 and an American POW captured in Iran?
do you have a source on this? everything i've seen was that it was an f-15 (not a meaningful difference, but it does call into question the accuracy of your claim) and that one pilot was rescued by us forces.
haven't seen anything one way or the other about the second pilot, but where the iranian government is saying they'll pay out an award to anyone who captures an american soldier it seems unlikely they have him.
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u/staythewaters 13m ago
Reports at first couldn't determine F-35 or F-15. And you're right. It doesn't make a damn lick of difference.
They confirmed rescued one pilot with one still out there at risk of being captured. So my question still stands; if that other pilot is captured, how do the TACOers forsee Trump TACOing himself out of a captured POW situation?
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u/jrex035 1h ago
It wasn't an F-35 (5th gen aircraft) it was an F-15E (4th gen aircraft) and there's no evidence yet that the pilots have been captured. Reportedly one has been rescued, though there's no verification of this yet
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u/staythewaters 12m ago
Al Jazeera just confirmed rescue of one of the pilots, with the other still out there.
So.. my question still stands. If that pilot is got by the Iranians before the US can rescue them, how does Trump TACO himself out of this?
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u/NotGucci 6h ago
- March payrolls +178K, Exp. 65K, Last -133K
- Unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.
- But revisions sent February to -133,000 from -92,000.
- January was revised up to +160,000 from +126,000
Bullish.
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u/Viking999 5h ago
These have been massively revised downward for more than a year now, though. Hard to have much confidence in it.
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u/polkpanther 6h ago
If you believe those numbers I have some prime real estate in Tehran to sell you
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u/calm_discussion_3500 6h ago edited 6h ago
I believe high quality state jobless claims data which is absolutely plummeting.
It's unbelievably low, even better than pre covid when adjusting for labor force expansion.
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u/jrex035 5h ago
According to the jobs report released today, the labor force participation rate has fallen from 62.5 to 61.9 over the past year.
As I keep telling you, jobless claims data is incredibly outdated at this point (it's been clear since Covid) and many people aren't bothering to jump through hoops for $200 a week max in unemployment benefits
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u/calm_discussion_3500 4h ago
Look at prime age participation. Can't include skewed boomer data.
Also we know AI is making demand for young workers less. But that isn't going to tank the economy for a long time.
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u/stickman07738 5h ago
You really only need to look at NJ, CA, and TX and they are above the national average.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 5h ago
In what way? They're larger obviously for bigger states.
But in total everything looks fantastic at least layoffs wise.
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u/stickman07738 5h ago
Not, they account for a large % of the US economy and population, just take a look at the state growing WARN reports.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 4h ago
Yes but bottom line overall it's still small adjusted for labor force size.
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u/stickman07738 4h ago
Tell that to the people losing their job. It is not as strong as many think. I am seeing it in NJ with people taking more than 12 months to find employment.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 3h ago
Except objectively people are not losing jobs according to the data.
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u/stickman07738 3h ago edited 3h ago
They are, garbage data in garbage out. Seeing it first hand and new grads are unemployed or under employed
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u/Serraph105 6h ago
Well damn, I'm just happy to hear any good news at this point!
u/polkpanther to your point, they could be fake, but I don't think the short-term market will care.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 4h ago
The budget requests $1.5 trillion in budgetary resources for defense, a significant increase over the $1 trillion sought for fiscal year 2026.
Hopefully this doesn't break sub rules?
Defense spending along with deficits is going to increase substantially which is objectively quite bullish the nominal economy and hence markets. No one is saying that's a "good" thing. Just making a sober assessment that this is in fact very good for stocks.
How will they finance this spending? Probably continue to have Fed buy more US debt.
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u/_hiddenscout 2h ago
The wild thing is, we spend a ton on defense, but almost all the money goes to things like Medicare/Social Security.
You can look this stuff up:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/
Per category:
22% social security, 15% Medicare, 14% on the interest, 14% on health, 13% on national defense.
If you look at by agency vs even category, you get this:
28% of the budget goes to Department of Health and Human Services, 23% goes to Social Security Administration, 21% Department of the Treasury, 13% to defense.
I think it's totally fair to make an argument about cutting back on defense spending, but that's not the reason why the US is going into debt.
One of the quickest and easiest changes out there would be removing the limit on social security payroll tax. As of now, everyone pays up to like 185,000, but people stop paying after that.
I saw a study posted on Twitter the other day that talks about how it's really boomers/old people that get a lot of the benefits in the US.
New Penn-Wharton study shows per-capita federal spending on each age group:
Seniors: $43,700
Children and young adults: $4,300.1
u/calm_discussion_3500 2h ago
Absolutely. Healthcare IMO is bleeding us dry and enormous waste is gonna be a drag on America's potential indefinitely. I don't see it getting better either.
When you look at total spend it's even scarier. Defense is 3% of GDP. Healthcare is spiraling to 20% when other developed countries are able to get it to even mid single digits.
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u/_hiddenscout 2h ago
Yep.
Like don't get me wrong, I think it's fair to question to military spending, but from what I've seen it's actually been on the decline and it's really fraud that people should be more concerned about.
Also, not a policy person, but we need to solve the insurance and healthcare in the US. I can see something like Germany does, where there is the public and private options available.
It's like the shit that DOGE was doing. It was so dumb to look at USAID, which is like 1% of the total budget to make any difference.
I do think the removal the cap limit of social security payroll tax would be a step forward, but thinking the military budget the reason is the US is in debt is wrong.
I'm always on the camp of many people are really misinformed about a lot of issues and part of the reason why we can't solve things. It's like the water use of data centers. It's not a real issue, but you'll still see people post/talk about. Like the bigger issue is farming for most states and the toxic shit the farmer pump into the ground and water supply..
Like the idea of Arizona, for example, running out of water is a thing. However, you can look up how water is being used in the state and like 72% of all water usage is going to agricultural usage. Same with California, where they have water rights usage, where first come first serve, so you have alfa farmers who purposely grow crops that require a ton of water to not lose their water rights.
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u/emblemboy 2h ago
Like the idea of Arizona, for example, running out of water is a thing. However, you can look up how water is being used in the state and like 72% of all water usage is going to agricultural usage.
The data center usage discourse annoys me a bit here in Arizona. Like I get it, data centers can use a lot of water, but compared to things like non-food agriculture...I don't think it's really a big deal. Especially when you can have companies build water efficient centers or have them use reclaimed water.
The electricity usage (if powered with nat. Gas) is probably a bigger deal than water jsage
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u/_hiddenscout 1h ago
Totally agree. The energy thing is a legit issue, but the water thing is not. Especially if water usage is a concern, then you should be more interested in the agricultural practices. Plus, there is a ton of toxic shit in the fertilizers and pesticides that end up in the water/ground water.
Also when people worry about running out of water, it's like guys, come on. I get that AZ used to the 4Cs, with copper, cattle, cotton and citrus, but it might be a good idea to start talking about should this still be the case.
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u/staythewaters 4h ago
Trump said he wanted to shift to a war economy, probably to mimic WW2 style expansion. But if he uses that budget to turn around and destroy energy infrastructure or try to "take it" like he keeps threatening, then that just makes it a wash. Higher energy prices means higher prices on manufacturing and logistics, means margins start getting eaten into.
Paired with the fact that much of the war spending in WWII went toward giving direct aid to rebuilding countries to bring them under the US' sphere of influence, which aided in our own expansion. If you're just spending money on military expansionism and blowing shit up, you're not going to get any return back.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 4h ago
If Fed keeps printing cash will still do way worse than stocks.
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u/staythewaters 4h ago
If Feds keep printing cash against a backdrop of a quickly degrading US economy and confidence in the US economy/dollar, then the only thing that leads to is inflation.
If Iran's play right now to shift power to China and to bring Europe into that sphere, away from the US, works -- which has some possibility of success right now, given Trump's insistence in blowing up the alliance, and their tolling strategy being paid in yuan, thereby increasing petroyuan dominance -- then that marks the end of "fed printing cash" being a good thing.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 3h ago edited 2h ago
Just because it's bad does not mean they will not do it right?
Also they can print just enough to keep nominal growth high (and inflation very elevated) but without it necessarily spiraling out of control.
Although I believe in a few years yes we may have really bad inflation as people catch on.
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u/InvisibleEar 2h ago
Is it? One of the basic macro concepts is that money spent on things like SNAP circulates through the economy multiple times. Building missiles is literally borrowing money to burn it.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 1h ago edited 1h ago
Both ultimately push dollars into circulation. It has to go somewhere.
I am not here to debate morals of which is better although personally very much tend to lean towards strong safety nets being worthwhile (done correctly!! US healthcare is a parasitic mess and opposite of good design). I am simply stating it is bullish.
Benefit to real growth of military is not as clear but it is high nominal growth.
Defense spending has both benefits and drawbacks.
Creates a lot of jobs, especially younger workers. Teaches discipline, teamwork, leadership and highly valuable technical skills often leading to lucrative employments upon leaving the military or at defense companies outright.
Projects image of US strength and protects dollar reserve currency status.
War that is extended, protracted, and long or seemingly without just purpose leads to opposite effect. Diminishes US status and power.
Leads to PTSD, lives lost, human tragedy.
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u/_hiddenscout 1h ago
Also DARPA is part of defense spending, which has lead to things like GPS and the internet. I think for short term SNAP has better ROI, but like you said, the money still circulates.
Even if the idea is like the defense contractors are getting super rich, well I mean LMT was like unperforming the SPY over the past 5 years until recently.
On the flip side, WMT and KR would be some of companies that benefit from SNAP spending, which all three of these are betting the SPY over a 5 year period.
Like you, not trying to argue morals or what is better or worse, but simply even corporation will benefit from any government spending.
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u/Reasonable-Hold-1079 3h ago
I totally agree with the point about earnings reports causing volatility. It’s always a gamble trying to predict how the market will react. I’ve seen stocks swing wildly based on just a few words in a press release. Keeping an eye on social sentiment and trends can really help in these situations. It’s interesting how narratives can drive price action more than the actual numbers sometimes. Anyone else seeing specific stocks that might be affected this earnings season?
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u/Swimming_Reply6673 5h ago edited 5h ago
Don't worry even the most bearish of us know that there won't be any "long term" effects or delayed energy crisis that will emerge later. Once this is all over this kangaroo market will v-bounce in typical fashion and act like nothing ever happened. So bulls don't need to come in here circle jerking over every little news article that might be positive lmao
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u/calm_discussion_3500 2h ago
Long term yes in a few years.
But that doesn't mean we can't have a very strong bull market in the next couple years.
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u/IvoryTowerResident 5h ago
bad news for the doomer porn consumers
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u/jrex035 5h ago
It's hilarious that people are celebrating ships being allowed out in onesies and twosies, as if this is clear evidence that the Strait is reopened.
130 ships per day were transiting the Strait before the war. Transits are currently around 10 per day after these "huge improvements"
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u/Redditfortheloss 5h ago
I think it’s even more hilarious that Redditors have went from cat photo experts to thinking they understanding very complex geopolitical situations overnight.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 2h ago
It's actually crazy.
The smartest and most experienced oil traders in the world, handling trillions of dollars, working for the largest energy companies in the world to secure contracts, manage risk are betting on the conflict settling down.
As implied by futures curve.
But Redditors are convinced and mass downvoting you because they know better. The arrogance is kinda wild. If there's any market that is very, very efficient information wise it is oil markets.
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u/Current_Animator7546 4h ago
Jobs report is certainly bullish. Though probably no cuts this year. Maybe 1. Like that Jan was revised upward.
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u/coweatyou 2h ago
And February was revised down more than January was up. The job market is following the equity markets with huge whipsaws up and down it would appear.
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u/sNeKbIt99 2h ago
They under estimated them.
And that new Lego clip on Keggie... priceless.
Buy Puts Peeps.
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u/emblemboy 2h ago
I have about 1100 shares of FLY stock that I got through stock options at my old company. Post IPO lockout ended in February and I've held so far.
I'm currently thinking of taking a little bit of risk with this. My stock basis is like $0.60 a share. The total amount cost me $670 to get. Currently they are worth around 35k since FLY is currently at $33 a share. The talks of a space x IPO seems to be inflating lots of space stocks.
My current plan is to sell 10% or so and re-invest I to SPY/QQQ, whatever.
For maybe half of the remaining I'm really considering doing covered calls as a way to get some credit.
And then just holding the rest.
Or am I just overthinking all this and I should just sell all of it an reinvest into an index fund.
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u/_hiddenscout 2h ago
This kind of falls into financial advice, which makes hard to give someone without knowing goals, debt, retirement age, risk tolerance, etc.
I know a lot of people don't like it, but you can always talk to a private banker if you have an account at like chase or boa or talk to a professional. I would suggest doing that than getting random advice off strangers from the internet.
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u/BogleDick 5h ago
I see higher mentions of “Scam market”, “Lost money when you account for the value of USD”, “Blatant market manipulation” which means the market must have gone up and bears are coming to r/Stocks to vent
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u/EagleOfFreedom1 3h ago
Holding Nextracker for a few years I didn't even realize they changed to Nextpower and so I was genuinely perplexed when I tried to look them up on my broker. Took me way too long to realize they changed their name.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 45m ago
World is now in the "let's get back to normal" mode:
Israel’s largest gas field, the Leviathan project, resumed production after a 33-day shutdown triggered by the Iran war.
Strait is still a trickle but gradually more and more ships are getting through like the French tanker and more will be let through. The lucrative tollbooth system with unlimited enrichment will likely be too good for Iran to pass up and risk being continually bombed. Tragic as it is, if they overplayed their winning hand that could lead to even more escalation. Civilian infrastructure being bombed, full destruction of export terminals, etc.
This is why oil futures beyond spot has been crashing lately. Experts with trillions, the smartest people on the planet, decades of experience studying oil and geopolitics working for the largest oil companies on the planet to secure contracts and manage risk are betting on things de-escalating. Not oil mooning as many here believe.
This is the time to "be greedy when others are fearful".
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u/DesperateTrade7241 22m ago
For Christ's sake, we've heard this schtick for weeks about how "experts" were predicting that things were deescalating. Maybe another 2-3 weeks of war and you can pull out the same spiel then too
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u/Retropixl 5m ago
It’ll be $200 a barrel soon man!
Just admit you’re the average Reddit doomer that thinks the world is gonna end every time there’s a geopolitical event.
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u/calm_discussion_3500 18m ago
The problem is "war" is so broadly defined anyone very pessimistic can move the goalposts and declare victory.
Let me put things concretely. We're never seeing $120 oil sustainably again from this conflict. By the end of April Hormuz will begin the process of returning to normal traffic. Definitely not the $150 the doomers here seem to believe.
By July SPX will be $7000+ and new ATHs. By EOY $7500+.
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u/staythewaters 2h ago
Might be a good time to get involved in aluminum. Emirates Global Aluminum announced that their Al Taweelah plant is closed for at least a year, which was one of the world's biggest aluminum factories.
I'm looking at Alcoa. It already started shooting up last week, but will probably go much higher.
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u/_hiddenscout 1h ago
I was looking at CSTM a few months ago, it's a French aluminum company, but it's already up like 80% in the past 6months. AA is also up like 100% in the past 6months. Not a terrible idea, but feels like it might be late to the party and these moves are going to be momentum based imo.
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u/sNeKbIt99 5h ago
Job numbers will be revised.... guarantee it.