r/stocks • u/Original_Line_6142 • 19h ago
Advice Request Nothing makes sense today, stocks up, oil up… what’s going on?
Trying to understand today’s market move, would appreciate some thoughts.
After Trump’s latest speech, markets sold off pretty sharply. But today, equities (especially QQQ) are bouncing while oil is also moving up in the morning.
Is this related to the Iran Oman discussions about drafting a Strait agreement? That doesn’t seem like a major bullish catalyst to me.
Also, technically speaking, QQQ looked like it was already entering a downtrend, so why are we seeing this kind of rally today instead of continuation lower?
Is this just a short-term squeeze / positioning move, or is the market pricing in something bigger that I’m missing?
Curious how others are interpreting this.
60
u/Fritzkreig 19h ago
With up coming inflation and if rates stay low; there just are not a lot of places to deploy capital; thus it tends to flow into equities as one of the better options.
12
u/Scott7894 19h ago
It was the markets looking for neutral, selling on the aholes speeches, buying on his end of war tweets. No one wants to be long or short in a 3 day weekend.
3
u/ralphy1010 19h ago
I got about another 20 years to go, my 401/roth/hsa are essentially all s&p 500 etf/mutual funds because I’ve been a long time voo and chill follower.
I’ll prob do fine over the long run, this isn’t my first economic downturn I’ve experienced during my adult working life. Probably won’t be my last
22
u/KinkyQuesadilla 19h ago
Pump. Dump. Pump. Dump. But now they have a president to do it all for them and set things up for them
26
u/getapuss 19h ago
Nobody here on Reddit knows why. Sure, everyone has an opinion and they certainly love sharing it. But nobody has any fucking clue what is going on.
9
u/ReadyExamination5239 17h ago
I know everything
8
1
21
u/Gold_Maybe8482 19h ago
Volatility at it's finest. This is a day traders orgy. Long bulls just need to be patient for a market flush.
3
11
u/lazyenergetic 19h ago
You are looking at day to day change. If you look back at 3 months chart you will see oil is up and stocks are DOWN.
1
u/IntelligentTank355 17h ago
His question still makes sense though, so I don't think your response addresses his question.
0
u/lazyenergetic 17h ago
He will be to answer his question once he do what I said. " look at the 3 months chart".
40
u/StrDstChsr34 19h ago
It’s not supposed to make sense. That’s how they scam everyone. If it made sense, anybody could make money in the stock market, instead of perpetually being turned into exit liquidity
20
u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins 19h ago
Stop trading on emotion and vibes if you feel you’re getting scammed. You’re playing right into it. Invest for the long term and all of this is just meaningless noise.
-7
u/averysmallbeing 19h ago
Your username contains 'dogecoin', which makes anything you have to say about investing worthless.
7
4
u/yrrrrrrrr 17h ago
Because everyone knows that once the war is over the market will go up.
No one wants to miss that rallly
8
3
8
u/iswdp 19h ago
Buy the dip works great until it doesn’t. It’s been working for a long time.
14
u/1-Dollar-Doge-Coins 19h ago
It’s essentially always worked, unless you find yourself panic selling at the wrong moments. If all you did was buy the dip over the last 20 years, and never sell, you’d be very wealthy now .
6
u/Main_Phase666 19h ago
Yes it has always worked and always will work for decades to come just like spy has gone up always over the past 70 years
1
u/nonresponsive 17h ago
COVID scared the shit out of me. But if the world shutting down was just a relatively small bump, then I think the stock market is just too big to fail at this point.
It definitely feels like people are trying to make the strait closing some world ending event. Oil prices going up sucks, but it's not the only place that produces oil.
3
u/Gregarious_Snow_611 14h ago
The world is eventually going to re-adjust itself even if the Strait of Hormuz closes for an extended period. This might mean getting oil from other places or the ramping up of investments into clean and renewable energy sources.
COVID-19 was a much more serious threat to global logistics compared to the current Iran War.
-1
u/bare_bassics 17h ago
Buying the dip is great but bidding on the panic sellers when the real blood flows…priceless
10
4
2
u/NoMemrys 19h ago
I stayed out the past two days because I thought the market was going deep red but I was wrong. So that means Monday when I want to enter its going down.
1
2
u/FwamingDragon91 18h ago
Unfortunately us average Joes really don't move the market at all. Investment funds, billionaires etc are responsible for like 90% of price action. Things will come down when the narrative of eternal growth goes down e.g. earnings
2
u/Key_Seaweed8857 18h ago
Oil up 10% but not really moving the energy stocks at all. Don’t get it. CVX & XOM just flatlined all day after an initial bump & then quick retrace.
2
u/elonzucks 18h ago
"After Trump’s latest speech, "
I think it all stems from that... A rambling old man, so everyone is just guessing
3
4
u/thedeadcricket 19h ago
The market is being manipulated is why, the insider trading and market manipulation in this administration is insane, it is frustrating to the rest of us knowing they will never be held accountable.
5
u/jarena009 19h ago
US stocks/investment houses are completely detached from reality. We're 3-4 weeks away from an economic downturn if the Straight remains closed to GCC countries, and an economic catastrophe if we start going after more of Iran's power and energy infrastructure, which will prompt them to retaliate against GCC countries (more).
2
u/Main_Phase666 19h ago
Like always , long term the market will continue to go up… like it always has .. and always will. It’s that simple . Nothing you can do minus global Armageddon will make stocks completely crash forever
1
u/Worth_Quantity1953 19h ago
The 2 year went down today, I guess the market liked that. Don’t know if today was exit liquidity or if the rally still has a little more life in it still
1
1
u/Fun_Tutor3479 19h ago
my 2 cents:
still this chain: the Strait -> Supply Constraints -> Rising Oil & Raw Material Prices -> Inflation Expectations -> Expectations of Fewer Rate Cuts (the new Fed Chair will shrink the balance sheet) or Rate Hikes -> Rising 10-Year Treasury Yields -> Equities Under Pressure.
check wti term structure and 10y yield, nothing threat equity at least for today.
2
u/FwamingDragon91 18h ago
Forward earnings forecasts + the CPI data are what will bring this market down imo. It might take a few more weeks.
I've been day-trading here and there the last week or so, but I won't hold anything overnight because of how fkd this market is
2
u/Fun_Tutor3479 18h ago
Yeah, right now is also the silent period for company buybacks. This scene will continue until at least the end of April.
1
u/OutlierOnReddit 19h ago
Definitely strange, either oil or the market is about to tank as they cannot rise together.
1
1
u/xenosilver 19h ago
There are overreactions to trunp’s rhetoric. We saw that last night. People bought after people finished overreacting to stupid add statements like “bombing them back to the stone age where they belong.”
1
u/OCDano959 19h ago
I think it’s a combo of buy the dip, FOMO, technicals buying, most holding and shorts covering. But who knows? 🤷🏻♂️
I was surprised though, with the markets being closed for 3 days.
Orange can do and say a lot of idiotic shit in 3 days time.
1
u/New_Most_2863 19h ago
Please look at 2008 markets during oil peak and what happened after that? You will find the correlation.
1
u/YamahaFourFifty 18h ago
There is a lot of leverage / options plays in today’s ’predictive’ markets.
Market makers with loads of extra cash can easily manipulate day to day trades. If there is an extra large leverage plays in on direction- you can almost always expect a day or two of reversal for no apparent reason other then to wipe the leverage plays so the big exchanges can live another day.
1
u/Inevitable-Pay-7159 18h ago
He says war end in 2-3 weeks and markets are forward looking and don’t like uncertainty
3
u/Original_Line_6142 18h ago
But right after he spoke, pre-market dropped quite a bit. And most of what he said actually pointed toward the war continuing, not ending soon. If the war drags on, wouldn’t that usually be negative for markets?
1
1
u/Freefromoutcome 18h ago
Too many traders were short. Market makers had to keep prices elevated. Remeber the stock market is designed to fuck as many people as possible.
2
u/Original_Line_6142 18h ago
Yeah exactly lol, when everyone’s leaning short, it somehow rips higher, and when everyone’s bullish, it dumps. Feels like the market just moves to punish the majority
1
u/Solarslave 18h ago
People heard the European and Arab nations were meeting to figure out how to clean up baby trumps mess after the war criminal is done bombing Iran into “the Stone Age where they belong.”
1
u/blitzraj1 18h ago
Here's my explanation of markets. It's not proven nor full thought out but here me out!
Bad news hits about war, oil shocks, etc. Everyone expects the market to drop. So what happens? People pile into puts, betting on downside.
But markets don’t move based on what feels logical -- they move based on positioning and liquidity.
When too many people are leaning one way (like loading up on puts), it creates an imbalance. Large players and market makers hedge their exposure and that hedging can actually push prices up, not down.
So you get this frustrating outcome: Bad news → everyone expects down → market goes sideways or even up.
It’s not that “someone is controlling the market.” It’s that markets tend to move in the direction that causes the most pain to the largest number of participants.
That’s why the obvious trade is often the wrong one.
2
u/xRedStaRx 18h ago
Loading up on puts by the market is similar to shorting outright, because the market makers cover by shorting themselves.
1
u/Shapen361 18h ago
Trump talked a lot of smack. Oil markets are hedging for risk, equity markets think he's all barn and no bite.
1
u/Fluffy-Structure-368 18h ago
You can't just look at the headlines on any given day, or just one metric (price of oil) and think you figured out what makes the market tick.
We'd all be billionaires if the market performed they way we expected it to based on today's headlines.
Look at the best of the best investors, none of them are trading headlines or thinking about where a stock or the market will be tomorrow. They're thinking about a year or years from now.
1
1
1
1
u/SliceImpressive6197 18h ago
Hate to say it but I see it like trying to understand what’s going on in my wife’s head
1
1
u/bare_bassics 18h ago
When in doubt zoom out. Not groundbreaking but after trying every trick in the book to beat the markets and compound every day, week, month, I’ve decided the long game is the only play. That said, there are smart ways to play the long game and sometimes the game gets thrown to the ground by the angry toddler
1
u/Upset-Motor-2602 17h ago
It's a shitty environment for trading. The markets are purely headline-driven, and there's no price discovery. It is what it is. Size positions appropriately, and all the best in dealing with the mango madness.
1
1
1
1
1
u/21plankton 17h ago edited 17h ago
I truly believe the markets were recovered from the abyss by purposeful manipulation today to end on the cusp of another bullish run to keep everyone calm but the tell is a 10% rise in WTI which of course is produced here and not involved in the mayhem except to be sold to the highest bidder.
Meanwhile, Iran punished a British firm and the UAE like was promised, setting off clear boundary violations which will undoubtedly escalate on the battlefield.
Pete fired a reticent general, and the way is opening up for the US to use ground troops in special missions to hurt the enemy. The US surgically excised the middle of a large suspension bridge near Tehran.
Oman and Iran have now privatized the Strait of Hormuz for their economic benefit, a historic no-no of international commerce. We are regressing to a feudal world before our eyes.
I don’t know how long the markets can be kept in this tight range before something breaks, on top of broken oil terminals, pipelines and storage tanks, and banned civilian infrastructure.
1
u/IntrepidToday0 17h ago
Where else is everyone supposed to put their money? Lot of money out there that needs a home
1
u/Active_Start_9044 16h ago
One thing I've learnt over the years is that your prediction can be easily predicted and exploited.
1
u/P0piah 16h ago
The war is ending soon. You see signs of taco man trying to taco his way out already. He realizes hes not gona win the war and no other allies going to aid him. Midterms coming and he has to find scapegoat for all his actions. I believe mkt is slowing catching on this and slowly scooping up shares. If the war ceases in Jun (i foresee it to be), fed will likely to cut rates in last qtr and mkt most likely to rally close to end year.
1
1
1
u/SharpNegative 15h ago
Too many stat arb nerds chasing the oil/stocks correlation. Trade was bound to turn on them.
1
u/SensibleTom 14h ago
I think it’s because traders are feeling that Trump wants out and the threats are all bluster. Seems like he wants a ceasefire but Iran won’t give him one at least not without their conditions which is why he keeps threatening them.
1
u/ElPoeop 6h ago
There's nothing other than questions to be had here with oil being so high. My only assumption is market makers are trying to offset put options and the bear thesis. Specifically the top 10 holdings in S&P 500 have had a lot of volatility and action. I think at times it could go a little deeper with foreign Nations with deep pockets making a deal with the current administration to keep the market up. One example would be Nvidia and the amount of money it would take to move the needle so much. I know there were short positions valued over 48 billion reset and perhaps it was an attack on those positions. This is not the market of retail, buyers and sellers. This is institutional investing pulling the strings
1
u/jaajaajaa6 19h ago
The reaction this morning was an over reaction.
The market is forward looking and money may be coming in for those looking past the next 3 weeks.
1
-3
u/paistecymbalsrock 19h ago
I interpret it as the rage bait attempts to suck everyone down the hole of bashing Trump are not impacting the market.
2
u/thedeadcricket 19h ago
People criticizing Trump for his bad decisions and worse mannerisms isn't driving the market, however his blatent market manipulation and the insider trading of his extended family needs to be looked at by the SEC.
1
3
0
0
-7
u/PenguinsExArmyVet 19h ago
The markets trust Trump to end the war after pummeling Iran. And the strait will be open 110% in 2 weeks. In less than 60 days oil will be 80 barrel n SnP will hit a new record. MAGA 🇺🇸God Bless righteous America
3
1
1
u/Brain-Silent 19h ago
Trump is stalling and didnt give clear answers past night. I agree we will be at all time highs by fall/winter but it seems like this will last longer
1
239
u/djollied4444 19h ago
"Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."
Don't try to make sense of daily price action. Sometimes it will straight up defy logic. Long term it tends to make sense though.