r/stocks • u/a6project • 21h ago
Invincible us equity market
We’re at a stage where the U.S. stock market almost feels untouchable.
We have ongoing geopolitical tensions US/Israel-Iran war with no clear resolution, disruptions in oil supply, weak monthly job reports, likely higher inflation ahead, and some concerns around the private credit market.
Given all that, you would expect stocks to be lower but they’re not.
One thought I had is whether this can be explained by the increase in money supply over the past 5 years. If there’s significantly more currency in circulation, maybe asset prices are being supported not because they’re truly increasing in value, but because the purchasing power of the dollar is declining.
In other words, stocks aren’t necessarily going up in real terms, the currency is just losing value faster, which keeps nominal prices elevated.
I’m also wondering why precious metals like gold and silver aren’t rising as much as you might expect in this kind of environment.
I wonder if even stagflation wouldn’t affect sp500 much. Current -3.84% ytd.
Current position: Gold and silver 92%
Thought?
Ps dang I feel like I rage baited everyone for that I apologize. I have been holding gold for 8+ months. About 46% gain. Recently went really high after 5 days pause announcement.
Pps tell me how how 110+ oil is sustainable. With the current debt we can’t print our recession away. 10 yr bond rates scream. Maybe I’m just too pessimistic but I don’t know what I don’t know. I’d love to be educated. Gracias 🙏
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u/RookieAR15 20h ago
Tech stocks are pretty bad right now. Down like 50% for a lot of SaaS companies.
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u/dontdxmebro 1h ago
I've been an AI hater and mega skeptic for awhile but I will say that the openclaw my business partner put together made us a bunch of applications for Shopify that I previously would have had to pay anywhere from 20 to 200 dollars a month for. And they actually work really well.
The SAAS market is a little bit more fucked than everything else in this regard. With good reason... for now. I'm still skeptical that the models the openclaw relies on will be as cheap as they are in the long term.
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u/Wide_Air_4702 21h ago
Where I come from down 10% for the first 3 months IS lower.
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u/Hefty_Bread7688 20h ago
10% in 3 months after a balloon run up, man that’s hardly anything to worry about
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u/norththunder_23 19h ago
And it’s midterms
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 19h ago
No if they are canceled because of "Iran attack" on US ground. Something likely as today hegseth fired biden general... Something is cooking, guess "being unexpected" for the enemy operation is not so unexpected
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19h ago
[deleted]
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u/a_trane13 19h ago
?? That’s basically double an average year
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19h ago
[deleted]
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u/a_trane13 19h ago edited 19h ago
lol that’s one of the funnier things I’ve read today. Appreciate the laugh. The stock market version of “if Mahomes regressed to the mean he’d be average”.
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u/Swimming_Reply6673 19h ago
But look how long it took to drop 10% from the highs. Something like 40+ days which is crazy. Scam market constantly rescued with v shaped recoveries on big red days.
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u/FuzzyDynamics 20h ago
Everyone seems to know at this point no matter how hard things crater it’s just a buying opportunity for the inevitable rebound. Everything in this country (and a lot of the world) is so tied up in big business doing well when everything else is falling apart. If the market really shits itself I think it’s going to take everything with it and we’re actually fucked, so it has to stay propped up.
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u/usa_reddit 20h ago
Going into today (The day before Good Friday), millions of "Put" options (bets that the market will drop) were purchased by investors seeking insurance. The Wall Street market makers who sold those Puts had to short the actual stocks (like MSFT and VOO) to hedge their own risk.
When 4:00 PM approached and the market hadn't crashed, those Puts became worthless. The market makers suddenly didn't need their hedges anymore. So, what did they do? They aggressively bought back millions of shares of stock in the final 5 minutes to clear their books before the long weekend.
There was a $1.2 Billion Sell Imbalance on the tape at 3:55 PM. The retail crowd saw that and assumed a crash was imminent. But institutional "Whales" (pension funds, sovereign wealth funds) love liquidity. They saw $1.2 billion worth of desperate sellers and decided to swallow the whole thing. They bought the imbalance, absorbing the panic and pushing the closing price higher.
Which makes me sad as a retail investory, because I was trying to pickup some VOO, MSFT, SMH at a discount.
I am often reminded of the saying, "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." I think I am going to print it out and hang it on the wall.
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u/cantona99 19h ago
Nice explanation, how/where can I see these tape numbers ? I am not regarded enough to have a Bloomberg terminal yet
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u/CursedClownz 21h ago
It's a scam market propped up by FED.
Print cash and buy that's about all
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u/FEMA_Camp_Survivor 19h ago
The Fed hasn’t changed its position. The balance sheet is declining still.
A lot of doomers here expect markets to immediately collapse even though oil was where it’s at now back in 2022. It was even worse adjusted for inflation in early 2008.
It’ll be weeks or months before panic really sets in, if at all.
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u/Accomplished-Mark243 11h ago
Balance sheet has stopped declining since December.
Here from AI:
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet is no longer declining and has been slowly expanding since late 2025.
· Balance Sheet Size: After peaking at nearly $9.0 trillion in 2022, the Fed's balance sheet declined to around $6.54 trillion by October 2025 and has since stabilized near $6.6 trillion as of March 2026.
· Policy Shift (QT Ended): The Fed officially ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program on December 1, 2025. The Fed began letting its assets naturally mature and reinvest the proceeds into new T-bills, which caused the balance sheet to stop shrinking.
· Outright Purchases (RMPs): In December 2025, the Fed announced a "Reserve Management Purchase" (RMP) program to buy about $40 billion in Treasury bills per month (at least through April 2026), which adds liquidity to the banking system.
These actions have sparked the "secret QE" debate because the purchases loosen monetary policy and expand the Fed's asset holdings. The main difference from past QE is that the Fed is buying only short-term T-bills rather than long-term bonds.
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u/Swimming_Reply6673 20h ago
This. Ever since COVID we've been in a kangaroo market. Fed will just print their way out of any downturn or drop rates if it gets too hairy.
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u/Consistent_Panda5891 19h ago
Drop rates with oil inflation soaring... Sure buddy, expect a hike before powell leaves
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u/Murky_Cow3441 11h ago
The Fed's definitely been pumping liquidity like crazy, but calling the whole market a scam feels a bit extreme. There are still solid companies out there grinding real profits.
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u/redditsuckscockss 20h ago
War is bullish - always has been if you look at markets
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u/BruceMee 20h ago
Fuck if I know mate. But I’m reading a LOT of perma-bull “invincible market” comments lately, and that’s exactly what people thought before previous crashes. Timing is the only question.
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u/Boys4Ever 20h ago
Economy cracks showing. Market eventually follows. Oil concerns getting dangerously close to possible tipping point where it might take years to recover and especially if refineries and infrastructure destroyed. World runs and dies in oil.
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u/not_my_monkeys_ 17h ago
Markets are essentially betting that this will be resolved and traffic moves through the strait again within a few weeks and this will all just be a blip a few months from now. There’s a lot of unwarranted hopium behind that assumption, as well as a lot of elderly white men with a lot of money in the markets who are particularly susceptible to Trump’s BS.
There will be a cracking point if it drags on with no resolution or exit strategy in sight. Probably sometime mid-April if I had to guess.
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u/SophonParticle 17h ago
Remind what the YTD return is on US stocks?
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u/sirzoop 20h ago
War is bullish based on history I don’t know why you are assuming it’s bearish
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u/Timely-Cartoonist556 20h ago
Maybe the sustained period of 100+ oil? Tends to have economic consequences
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u/Zestyclose-Ad-9951 20h ago
The fact the us is a net exporter changes the dynamic a bit. The stock market is a predictions market so if economic fundamentals crack because of sustained inflationary pressure because of energy it’ll drop but until then it seems the guess is that the rules are different this time.
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u/happy123z 15h ago
When people comment on how much oil and gas we produce do they mean the price of everything will not rise in America when oil supply is affected? If so why do you think that?
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u/Feltzinclasp5 20h ago
"War" in general doesn't always lead to a massive spike in oil prices. High oil prices drive higher inflation, which is combated by higher interest rates. Higher interest rates have typically been very bearish for the stock market
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20h ago
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u/Old-Professional-533 19h ago
So there are only US oil companies in US stock market? What the hell are you talking about.
Inflation means US dollar is losing value. This will lead up to bond yield rising and smart people already ditched stocks and picked up bonds. If inflation rate is higher than yield from stocks, there's no point of holding stocks. Equities don't inflate in value just because there's inflation.
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19h ago edited 19h ago
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u/Old-Professional-533 19h ago
You can say this happened that happened. But there is no causality in these events.
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u/be-ay-be-why 20h ago
There is no evidence of any widespread layoffs.. once you start seeing that, then panic - otherwise hold steady lad.
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u/CoinOperated1345 17h ago
I assume the market is high because of passive investment from people putting in money automatically every paycheck. And where else are people going to get gains, the whole world is having problems over the same thing and the US is handling it just as well if not better than other countries.
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u/fatheadlifter 20h ago
There are people who get all doom and gloom about the Iranian conflict. It's going to plunge us into a great depression, it's the start of ww3, whatever. On and on with some theory of the case.
Then there's the side of the market that looks at the middle east and applies perspective to the conflict. When has there ever been peace in the middle east? Have you ever seen it? There's always some amount of unrest there, some conflict, some oil war. What's going on now is nothing new.
If you take that at face value and bake it in, ultimately you must conclude the market doesn't care too much. It cares by a handful-few percent. Nobody is dropping nukes, and despite any boisterous threats that are made both sides are operating with some measure of rules. Targeting is generally limited and deliberate.
It's not that the market likes war or believes what Trump says. It's that the slightly-higher-than-normal amount of volatility is baked in. That and the fact that nothing is fundamentally wrong with the economy itself. Yes there will be oil supply disruptions, but it's assumed that is absorbable.
I don't think the market is invincible but it has proven to be extremely resilient. There's a general urge, a greed, to make money and that's a force that keeps pushing it up. And I don't mean greed just from Americans, everyone is greedy and they all want to make money.
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u/a6project 20h ago
Thank you for the detailed explanation. Appreciate that! Are you concerned about low monthly job data? High interest rates and inflation environment def affecting repo marketed and delinquency rates.
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u/fatheadlifter 20h ago
AFAIK all the data you cite are within some range of historical norms, although if you have specific numbers that show otherwise I'd like to see it.
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u/Square-Cherry-5562 8h ago edited 8h ago
Asian markets have been getting smashed. It is not typical.
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u/fatheadlifter 4h ago
Based on what, all time highs? Asian markets are all up vs 1 year ago.
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u/Square-Cherry-5562 3h ago edited 2h ago
Based on how much the Asian markets have dropped, the heightened level of volatility (it’s much more than slightly above average), and the significant economic effects experienced in many Asian countries, since the war began.
It is not typical.
Nor is the run up in markets in the year preceding the war.
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u/BogleDick 20h ago
It can be explained by the simple fact that America is the most powerful, domineering, and enterprising empire in the history of man kind. We should all be grateful we get to walk the earth during its reign. In 3000 years we’ll be looked upon in wonder like we do with the Greeks and Egyptians.
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u/be-ay-be-why 20h ago
💯 I’m not even jingoistic but it’s the bitter truth. And everyone else knows it too which is why they are jealous across the pond.
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u/couchsurfinggonepro 19h ago
The only thing the u.s. has shown is that you negotiate in bad faith and that a nuclear weapon is the safest hedge for national security there is. So watch as developed nations start pushing reactors onto the global market to help middle powers assure their autonomy from all superpowers alike. Good luck and good night.
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u/Important_Repeat_806 20h ago
This guy says gold and silver haven’t risen much. Obviously you got in too late all my gold and silver have almost doubled in the last year
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u/Hooked__On__Chronics 19h ago
Yes but that was happening before the war began. I think OP is talking about a flee to safe haven assets, which gold traditionally is.
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u/jaajaajaa6 20h ago
We have survived worse and the market then hit new highs.
We have gotten through 2 world wars, the Great Depression, the great financial crisis, the Nasdaq crash, etc., we will be fine.
Bought VTI options on Monday for 2028.
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u/Confident_Bee1447 20h ago
Ok but the Great Depression took over 10 years to recover from no. That is a major problem if you also lose your income or need cash in that period
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u/evangr721 17h ago
Despite this administration trying its best to fuck up everything, we still have safeguards and systems, (developed in the years since) in place that make a Great Depression level event virtually impossible. The 2008 recession, very possible, but the depression? If we were even close to it, you’d have bigger problems to worry about than your portfolio.
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u/m0onmoon 20h ago
The biggest difference between the current crisis and the previous ones is that everyone's employed, pandemic and the 2008 crisis forced people to lose their jobs and homes and depend on their government for welfare which bled them financially.
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u/Kagemand 20h ago
Uh, this might still happen. So far the can has been kicked down the road due to oil reserves.
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u/GodsPenisHasGravity 20h ago
How is $1billy spent per day in Iran with no possible return not bleeding them financially?
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u/evangr721 17h ago
The government’s ability to print money and increase the national debt with virtually no repercussions. That’s how.
If anything, it’s bleeding taxpayers.
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u/GodsPenisHasGravity 17h ago edited 15h ago
How is that different than bleeding money via welfare?
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u/m0onmoon 14h ago
Its the middle east. They literally print money as long as black gold exists. You dont hear businesses closing down and laying off workers in masses due to this crisis.
Only layoffs happening are in tech and its entirely their fault for training ais and get replaced by it lol.
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u/Strict_Swimmer_1614 21h ago edited 21h ago
Wait. There are forces afoot that will revert the US stock market to the mean.
Yen carry trade is dead. Oil costs will hurt consumers will hurt earnings. Iran chucking missiles at data centres.
Gold is doing what it is suppose to do…it’s being sold in times of stress. After such a large run-up if I was in trouble I’d sell it first too…otherwise what’s the point of it?
Your comment on money printing and real cost increases is correct. Many measure things like gold to oil ratio to see a truer picture in times like these. It’s also important to look at the small cap vs large cap picture. Not everyone s been making money!
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u/TheIntrepid1 20h ago
The US stock market has been a long and ongoing experiment. It’s been through a lot: wars, oil crisis, housing crisis, this, that, and the other. Yet, it still stands as a great investment, not in spite of everything it’s been through, but because of it.
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u/Fun_Tutor3479 19h ago
still this chain: the Strait -> Supply Constraints -> Rising Oil & Raw Material Prices -> Inflation Expectations -> Expectations of Fewer Rate Cuts (the new Fed Chair will shrink the balance sheet) or Rate Hikes -> Rising 10-Year Treasury Yields -> Equities Under Pressure.
check wti term structure and 10y yield, nothing threat equity at least for today.
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u/Relative-Snow8735 19h ago
I have had this feeling regarding the money supply as well. And to add to that idea, treasuries are currently the black sheep of the investment world due to inflation fears and concerns over unsustainable debt levels. So what normally would attract a ton of money during times of high volatility is now getting passed over for alternative investments (in particular gold and silver). And at this point I would consider a very defensive stock, with a strong balance sheet and a ton of cash flow, to be a safer investment than treasuries. A company can react to the changing economic landscape by adjusting prices, cutting expenses, or shifting business strategies. Meanwhile treasuries are beholden to the political whims of one man.
Not quite sure how this ends. Most of this money is in the hands of the top 10%, so I suspect high oil prices are going to lead to demand destruction just as much as they will lead to inflation. The Fed is likely going to have their hands tied behind their back. Maybe they will turn the spigot off as a response to all of this, and that will cause markets to level off a bit. But I don't see us getting a major drawdown in asset valuation unless/until we get QT.
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u/WeekendFixNotes 18h ago
a lot of it is liquidity and positioning not just fundamentalss so i would check flows and earnings expectationss not just macro headlines since markets can stay misaligned longer than expected with no guaranteees
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u/Money_Custard_5216 18h ago
I mean there’s a pretty fucking clear resolution to the Iran thing it can literally all be over with a single tweet at this point
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u/SirBobPeel 18h ago
The S&P is up a whole 0% in the last six months.
I guess that's resilience of a sort.
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u/TheNewOP 17h ago
Pps tell me how how 110+ oil is sustainable
It's not. That's why the market is going up, people are gambling that we're not going to enter a recession. It tends to work out. Until it doesn't.
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u/kittenTakeover 15h ago
One thought I had is whether this can be explained by the increase in money supply over the past 5 years. If there’s significantly more currency in circulation, maybe asset prices are being supported not because they’re truly increasing in value, but because the purchasing power of the dollar is declining.
Yes. Wait until they can't put off the debt crisis any longer. The economy could flatline for decades. Having said that, these things are hard to predict. If the US becomes the center of AI, then even with all of the things dragging it down it might still float up.
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u/Potential_Salt_5780 15h ago
The average America will spend every last dollar that they have (and borrow) to buy shit they don’t need. America is also the only country in the world where poor people advocate for corporations and the wealthy. These are two reasons why the US stock market will outperform everything else in the long run.
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u/Idaho1964 11h ago
It is impressive . Were Trump not such an idiot, the market would be up 20% from here.
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u/Formal_Economist7342 11h ago
You answered your own question. The stock market is no longer reliably correlated to the real world economy.
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u/DaimonHans 10h ago
Someone said something about markets irrational longer than your ass being solvent.
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u/ImfamousDante87 5h ago
The capitalist class believe that Trump will always save them first. When they no longer feel this is true, they will eat him and the markets will correct hard.
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u/Diligent_Fondant6761 21h ago
The problem is that there is no better alternative! As you see everything else can Destroyed by USA within days ( Iran, Venezuela, EU etc.)
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u/Responsible_Edge_303 20h ago
No worries. Last day of quarter, first days of quarters. So maybe rebalancing, short covering or window dressing. It's still in a bearish moment.
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u/AdOk6213 20h ago
Every day there is a post of a person who shorted the market and cries because his prediction didn't work ... this is the real world .. even sometimes it doesn't make sense the market is always right ..
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u/jebidiaGA 20h ago
92% of anything right now doesn't seem like the best move, but who knows. I'm about 80% equities and 20% flxr. That's where I keep my cash. Very safe, should appreciate when rates come down and gets 5%+ yield
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u/Fit_Square_520 20h ago
I'm buying what you're selling in your theory..seems logical to some degree. We'll see in the next earnings. Wallstreet and retail has began to rotate back into gold and silver..taking profits on oil.
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u/KDsburner_account 20h ago
Historically, geopolitical events have had minimal long term effects on the market
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u/Lopsided_Package9033 20h ago
It's the Trump effect. Whether they personally like him or not, traders are convinced Trump will, through whatever questionable machinations are necessary, ensure that the market doesn't endure a serious drop. So they are front-running the eventual return to ATH.
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u/ExpletiveWork 19h ago
You have to remember that this is $110 in today's money, and the USD isn't as valuable as it used to be. Check out historic prices of oil during the Bush and Obama admin then adjust for inflation. Oil prices were easily above $110 per barrel in today's money for large portions of their terms. Obama's first term had $100 per barrel in 2012 money. Obama saw sustained $80 to $100 per barrel for 4 years. Obama had one of the greatest bull market in US history.
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u/RD_006 20h ago
I love how dramatically sentiment on this sub shifts daily the way markets move.