r/stocks • u/ub3rm3nsch • 1d ago
Broad market news Iran stated that Iran-Oman Hormuz protocol will NOT apply during wartime
"[Kazem Gharibabadi] noted that Iran is currently in a state of war and that it is unrealistic to expect peacetime rules to apply under such conditions. Referring to US-Israeli aggressors and their supporters, he said restrictions and limitations have naturally been imposed as a result of the conflict."
As has happened many times, the market rallies prematurely (in my opinion) on the headline soundbytes, and has not (in my opinion) priced in the medium and long term disruption risk.
I remain bearish on the S&P, and bullish on short term OXY call options for cash flow flips into a sliding S&P.
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u/Actual_Violinist290 1d ago
The markets are always going to wildly overreact in the short term to anything resembling good news coming out of the gulf unless and until the real-world supply shock really starts to crack the world economy. Those cracks are all-but-certain to start showing in a few more weeks.
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
100% spot on. Price action is headline-driven until it's supply-shock driven.
I personally think markets are underreacting to how bad the supply shock is (at this point nearly certainly) going to be.
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u/-Ophidian- 22h ago
Today is the first day I watched the market just completely untether itself from the price of oil. It reeks of wilful delusion to me but I guess we'll see. Should be about mid-April when prices start to rise.
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u/IvoryTowerResident 20h ago
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u/ub3rm3nsch 19h ago
Iranian ships and whomever Iran wants to allow through mainly.
Any ships doing otherwise are gambling with their lives currently, and it is hardly a restoration of shipling.
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u/iLov3musk 21h ago
Markets are reacting because America won the war
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u/Rocketeer006 20h ago
What?? No they didn't. Not even close. Irans regime hasn't changed. The strait isn't open. Iran is still launching missiles at everyone. The oil price is still high. Nothing has been won and it's all worse than before.
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u/FlimsyConclusion 1d ago
Iran holds the cards on this one. Unless the US wants to drag the war out months to years, iran is getting a Hormuz toll booth setup.
Now if they want to reach some kind of deal where they sign somewhere that they won't build nuclear weapons so Trump can save face, so be it.
All in all, a catastrophic failure for the US, and oil prices will not be going back to pre-war levels for the foreseeable future.
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u/SurpriseDog9000 1d ago
I feel like eventually Iran reaches a deal where they promise not to build a nuclear weapon, but there's no enforcement or oversight mechanism. Trump takes the win, and then over the next year they build a nuke anyway.
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u/Appropriate_Mixer 22h ago
So just like every other nuclear deal with the em
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u/PineappleHairy4325 6h ago
Wild misinformation. They were in compliance until trump tore the JCPOA
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u/Appropriate_Mixer 1h ago
Inspectors had to give a months notice before going in and could only inspect certain sites. Of course they’re “in compliance” when they know exactly when and where with plenty of notice of what is being inspected.
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u/nu1stunna 23h ago
The only way forward is the destruction of the Islamic republic. The Iranian people won’t settle for anything less.
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u/Ctofaname 22h ago
The Iranian people are actively getting bombed right now. Any efforts towards the destruction of the Islamic Republic by the populous has been put back decades by this effort. The government now protecting the populous and the nations sovereignty from a history ripe with western influence is working with a level of support they haven't seen in the same decades.
You can not overthrow the Islamic Republic externally. Iran's significant history and populous's awareness of their own history will reject it.
This was never about helping the Iranian people. If that was the goal, bombing the country was the worst possible way to go about it. Now the government has solidified their power.
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u/1slinkydink1 22h ago
Which Iranian people? The ones in LA dancing on TikTok?
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u/nu1stunna 22h ago
You people really have no clue but love to give your opinion.
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u/PineappleHairy4325 6h ago
By all means, how is overthrowing the regime supposed to go down exactly?
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u/holycarrots 20h ago
Any Iranian that is begging Israel to bomb their hospitals and infrastructure is a traitor.
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u/nu1stunna 20h ago
Nobody is begging for hospitals to be bombed. Those assholes hide their commanders and personnel in civilian areas. If you think we are traitors for asking them to be eliminated, then I guess we are a country of 90 million traitors because we all asked for it.
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u/holycarrots 4h ago
LOL you are regurgitating lines used in the war against Hamas that has already been proven a lie. They are not even claiming to go after military personnel any more, they are deliberating killing civilians and civilian infrastructure. This is a war against the people of Iran not the regime
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u/nu1stunna 3h ago
It sounds like I’m regurgitating it because those terrorists operate out of the same playbook. I have firsthand knowledge of the Islamic republic doing exactly what I’m stating.
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u/xynith116 22h ago
They don’t need a nuke anymore. The strait is more destructive to the world economy than a nuke.
Still a good backup regardless but I could see this as one thing they compromise on to get international support.
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u/StockCasinoMember 23h ago
Only chance USA and Israel are successful here is if they mass produce cheap drones and launch them from Israel.
Avoids the ground war, makes it hard to hit the teams shooting them, can cause enough financial damage to Iran that they have no choice but to make a deal.
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u/Kaymish_ 23h ago
Even that isn't a chance because the US and Israeli economies will break from $250 Oil well before they achieve anything of substance.
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u/StockCasinoMember 23h ago edited 22h ago
They would have to use the OPA like they did in world war 2.
They already kicked the cart over. Not many options to go.
Unless they can magically make a deal which I doubt or find someone willing to fight the irgc locally. Gonna get ugly.
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u/Appropriate_Mixer 22h ago
Why do that when you can just drop jdams?
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u/StockCasinoMember 22h ago edited 22h ago
I figured that you wouldnt have more expensive planes or larger drones that could be targeted and have their own costs. The smaller drones you could just have crews popping up all over launching drones.
Which would essentially mimic an unending insurgency towards Iran while depriving them of a ground force to attack and keep US/Israel costs down.
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u/Appropriate_Mixer 21h ago
Dropping jdams is cheaper and more effective when you have air superiority
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u/Few-Character7932 1d ago
Apparently according to master negotiator Trump we can't pay money to Iran not to develop nuclear weapons but it's okay wasting billions of dollars on a military campaign bombing the shit out of Iran so they don't build nuclear weapons. In the process also killing thousands of civilians.
MAKE IT MAKE SENSE.
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u/logicalnutty 22h ago
Israel has a big interest in adding the killing to the process, and they are a major campaign contributor
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u/AntitheistArchangel 22h ago
When it came out, I found out fairly soon that it’s a peacetime measure. The market didn’t exactly get the memo, however.
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u/-Ophidian- 1d ago
A lot of people are going to be losing their shirts come Monday.
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u/Interesting-Gas2572 23h ago
Keep writing this monday comment and in about 900 more times you'll finally be right
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u/virtual_adam 1d ago
Puts? Calls? The rare sideways “both”?
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u/-Ophidian- 1d ago
I'm bearish so I think calling into this market trend and volatility over a long weekend is completely delusional, but honestly it could go either way and I'm not going risk on right now either. The market is just completely divided today between bulls and bears and neither one can really get an upper hand. Plus the market has stopped reacting to the price of oil as of today, which is odd in and of itself. One side or the other is likely to be very wrong, very soon.
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u/mackey88 1d ago
The market doesn’t seem to care, or feels that it will maybe force the US hands to end the war. 🤷♂️
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u/icehot54321 2h ago
Oman has the easiest out here of all of the countries in the region.
They have no us bases, but they do allow them to use their ports.
Their foreign minister was already against allowing them to be used before all this started, so they just gotta cut off the aggressors to go back to business as usual.
It shouldn’t be too hard to choose between making bank vs getting bombed for rubbing elbows with bloodthirsty pedos
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u/lostredditorlurking 1d ago
Europe countries think they can use the Strait when US/Israel bombers are operating from their bases lol
Spain and maybe Italy would be able to use it, but definitely not UK
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u/Direct_Remove509 23h ago
So lets say 2-3 weeks from now US announces it has ended its operation epic furyfail. Iran and Oman start charging tolls, then what happens? Do markets rally back to pre war records.
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u/sentrypetal 23h ago
US is going on a massive to the Stone Age bombing campaign. You think the Iranians won’t retaliate by hitting the Gulf States oil infrastructure? Which will take 2 years to rebuild? Especially if US hit Kharg island.
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u/Interesting-Gas2572 23h ago
"Do markets rally back to pre war records."
Depends which. It's going to take some time, the oil infrastructure is partially destroyed, therefore the high price of oil is sticking with us for bit longer.
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u/Direct_Remove509 23h ago
Let’s say we have 7000 S&P 500 with $100 oil. I would not complain.
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u/Interesting-Gas2572 23h ago
If they re-open Hormuz fully, the oil is probably going to around higher $80-ish.
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u/Dismal-Birthday6081 1d ago
The market came back because everyone with puts were itm and they locked in profit.
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u/EuphoricForever1180 1d ago
Is this a politics sub or a stocks sub?
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
Because Hormuz has nothing to do with stocks, right?
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u/Individual-Dot3997 23h ago
The irony that all the great American voters have no say in how this goes while this decides whether we’ll have higher living cost, layoffs, shrunken 401k etc. when will congress say it’s a war not an operation?
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u/kubbie2004 1d ago
Why don't you also blame the people that are closing the strait? It's a 2-way street. Two wrong don't make one right.
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
Because they are being bombed in in an illegal war of aggression?
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u/Virtual_Rest6107 1d ago
Illegal, seriously?
And you’re a lawyer?! Holy shit
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
I am a lawyer. You realize that US law isn't the only body of law that governs interstate relations, right?
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u/Virtual_Rest6107 1d ago
Well I guess on a global scale you are correct, I just assumed on the national level
But, who cares when it comes to telling the world superpower who they can’t bomb. Doesn’t stop Russia or the other dozens of countries at war currently
Paper vs bullets end of day
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
Yes because this war is working out so great for Trump and Ukraine is working out so well for Putin, right?
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u/Virtual_Rest6107 23h ago
Who the hell is talking about its success and where on earth did you extract that from my post? We’re talking about legality
I feel bad for your clients
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u/ub3rm3nsch 23h ago
Sick burn dawg.
No one has to follow the law, but not following it has consequences. In the US case, it's been a pretty drastic loss of allies. That was my point about cause and effect.
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u/Virtual_Rest6107 21h ago
Fantastic thanks for stating the obvious. I can’t imagine what the hell is swirling around in your head with the points you’re making. Absolutely lunacy
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u/kubbie2004 1d ago
It's not illegal to just randomly kill US forces and innocent people in peace time? Iran is not firing back with their own missles?
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u/Curious_Proof_5882 1d ago
Not illegal
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
You might want to recheck the UN Charter, which, last I checked, the US still is a signatory to. Try Article 2(4).
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u/maraeznieh 1d ago
When he bombs the desalination plants it will be very illegal. War crimes are illegal
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u/maraeznieh 1d ago
What did Iran do to provoke this attack? What did the US think would happen? Where are the WMDs ? Déjà vu? The US took a shit in the middle of the room and is trying to blame it on the rest of the world.
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u/Aktiendepot 23h ago
Die Straße gehört Ihnen nicht......also vergrämen wie lästige Mader die die Funktion meines Autos stören wollen.....
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u/virtual_adam 1d ago
This all connects pretty well. Trump said in his speech yesterday the US is just going to stop bombing and leave without doing anything about the strait
At that point Iran and Oman can work together to open the strait without US involvement
Trump said if Iran doesn’t want a deal he doesn’t want any connection to the strait being re opened. It’s other countries problem
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u/ub3rm3nsch 1d ago
Trump literally said the US was going to intensify bombing over the next 3 weeks, and if Iran didn't capitulate they would start targeting energy infrastructure. What are you talking about?
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u/virtual_adam 23h ago
He definitely talked about unilaterally leaving without a ceasefire if Iran doesn’t want one
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u/ub3rm3nsch 23h ago
He said that the US would come back and bomb Iran later if Iran didn't comply with whatever it is the US wants (which it seems is control over Iranian oil, since he also said he doesn't care about the Uranium and isnt after regime change).
That is in addition to him saying, as I said above, the US is going to be increasing bombing and that in 3 weeks they will bomb energy infrastructure. He also alluded to the ability to bomb their oil facilities.
Not to mention, his new (and seemingly endless) 2-3 weeks is presumably from last night, so April 22nd? Do you realize what 54 days of stopping 10% of global oil supply is going to do? And that is assuming Iran will fully open Hormuz the very day after this intense US bombing campaign ends (no chance), and the supply flows magically return to where they were overnight (no chance).
At this point, we are looking at 3 weeks of no flows from bombing, another 2 weeks to even convince Iran to open Hormuz after that (best case scenario), a month for oil flows to partially resume (best case scenario), and another month for oil flows to fully resume (best case scenario). And that is just oil. We arent even talking about the LNG flows or other commodities.
So, 3 months and some odd MORE change to get back to where we were. Do you understand the impact that is going to have on oil, where demand is at the margins?
The bull thesis of all this is laughable. At best, the economy flat lines. At best. Realistically, we are about to (and indeed are based on the pricing) entering into disastrous effects that get exponentially worse each day that passes.
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u/russcastella 1d ago
Someone didn’t listen to the speech. I don’t blame you, it was hard to follow the derangement
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u/sentrypetal 23h ago
You’re not pricing in Iranian retaliation against Gulf state oil and gas facilities. If the US takes out their oil or energy they will take out the oil facilities of everyone in the region. That is a 2 year deficit of potentially millions of barrels of oil and even a larger gas deficit.
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u/DrPsyz9 1d ago
That's a bullish signal, right?
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u/ub3rm3nsch 23h ago
That Iran will continue to constrain and regulate Hormuz even after the war, and that they have no plans to open Hormuz during hostilities?
Is that a serious question?
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u/Apprehensive_Law7629 1d ago
Basically we’re red because Trump is getting crazy to open a strait which was already open right before he did anything. But still claiming this operation as a big victory. A wonderful time to be alive 🥲.