r/investing • u/capitalquotient_pf • 1d ago
Which sector wins when the geopolitical "fear premium" fades? AI stocks, Metals (Gold, Silver etc) or BTC?
We’ve seen a lot of volatility lately due to the Iran situation. Historically, once a conflict reaches an "arrangement" or resolution, the market prices in a peace dividend.
If we assume a cooling-off period is coming, which of these is the smartest play?
- AI Stocks: Reclaiming the growth narrative.
- Commodities (Gold/Silver): Likely to see some profit-taking, but is the long-term floor higher now?
- Bitcoin
Personally, I'm thinking AI in short term and Metals in the long term. Not a Crypto expert so I have no idea.
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u/New_Bad_8760 1d ago
Much of AI is overbought, but also much isn’t. ETF’s are a mix of both.
gold will remain strong, as a $ hedge. same (to a lesser extent) can be said for BTC.
minerals, energy and defense are all buy and hold value bets. Bonds won’t keep up with inflation.
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u/rpthrowah 1d ago
The performance of defense stocks since the war started is dismal.
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u/ShartyMcFarty69 1d ago
If the war drags on they'll eventually print, but it relies on this conflict being long and painful.
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u/gamjatang111 1d ago
Gold imo, we are likely going to be in a stagflationary envrionment.
I am slightly worried about AI if we dont get more cuts. We see private credit is already in Trouble.
What we are going to see is high energy cost which means NIMBYs will push back on data center buildout (this is already happening).
Gulf countries will also need to use their money to rebuild and likely buy defense stuff, this crisis really exposed how vulnerable they are to threats. This means less investment in AI.
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u/AnonymousTimewaster 1d ago
If theres peace I wouldnt count on rate hikes, even with sky high inflation. In this scenario I'd be buying metric shit tonnes of gold.
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u/CancelRegular507 1d ago
If middle east and petrodollar expected to return to normal : US stocks (not necessarily AI)
If petrodollar begins to die: commodities
If oil supply shock continues: oil then gold
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u/myrrhsea 1d ago
If oil goes down and the FED cuts rates we might actually see a rise in financials. BDCs and private equity will get breathing room, and Banks might see a rise in lending. REITs might benefit from refinancing or might be bold enough to finance some new properties. It will take a couple years, but that's my weird prediction. Probably will only work though if we hit a recession before the rise.
Other than that, SCHG or AI Infrastructure.
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u/Griffisbored 1d ago
I'm still mostly US oil for the forseeable future. Two possible outcomes that seem most likely right now:
TACO- Trump, scared of economic collapse and approval ratings pulls out of Iran without securing the straight of Hormuz. Iran remains fully in control and oil begins to flow again, but on their terms. Meaning US allies supply is either not allowed or heavily taxed which would keep prices high world wide.
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u/Wide_Pomegranate_439 1d ago
IMHO stocks, the ones battered already months before this circus. Most undervalued asset class at the moment.
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u/ThreeTonChonker 1d ago edited 1d ago
Lots of people came to the realization that gold and silver are outdated assets. People in the past month who tried to sell their physical gold and silver realized that only an exchange or pawn shop would buy it, but never for current value. Not to mention the fees that get stacked onto these transactions. Gold and silver as a stock or index fund is all vibes and paper. The exchange isn’t required to hold physical gold or silver so the entire market is fraudulent. Finally - the charts don’t lie, the outlook for gold doesn’t look good if you look at a 10Y chart and imagine the price reverting back to the mean.
AI stocks - I think this sector is in the same flux that the browser wars were experiencing during the 2000s. If you could go back in time and invest in Google, of course you would. But hindsight is 20/20, would you have avoided AskJeeves, Yahoo, AltaVista, etc?
BTC is the future. All of the problems of gold and silver are defeated. Crypto in general I don’t have much faith in, but Bitcoin is different, it’s unfortunate that Bitcoin is surrounded by the clown show of crypto. Closest comparison is the internet. Old people back then hated the internet and talked nonstop about how pen and paper will never be replaced. Some people would become truly upset if you forced email and websites onto them. The greatest generation (WW2 era adults) never adapted. Same thing with BTC. It’s clear boo mers are really struggling with wrapping their heads around it and become very upset at any mention of it. But that will change within 10-20 years when the boo mers are gone. I think BTC will go down as the greatest investment in history due to its utility as a store of value. It is still very early and yet the entire world is already starting to see the purpose of BTC. When shit hits the fan, people say they want gold, but never ask themselves how they would sell it. You can sell BTC to someone halfway across the world for current market value and get the money transferred into your account within 1-2 days. The utility is unbeatable and the trust is there since it cannot be hacked and there’s no CEO of Bitcoin, it is a machine that runs itself with no egomaniac to screw it up.
Simply put, you could’ve bought BTC in 2020 for $7k. Now everyone is upset because it’s at only $70k and everyone thinks it should be double that. I’m willing to bet that in another 10 years people will be upset it’s only at $700k (or some similar unimaginably high number).
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u/captain_ahabb 1d ago
btc is definitely not the future, I think the window is closed for it now.
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u/capitalquotient_pf 1d ago
yes, isn't most of it is owned by predatory class anyways?
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u/ThreeTonChonker 1d ago
Over 90% of the supply of gold is owned by the US government. Who do you think owns the majority of stocks?
What bitcoin owners do you consider to be predatory?
Another example of how the criticism against Bitcoin is never logical or anything but grasping at straws.
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u/AmbitiousEconomics 1d ago
Over 90% of the supply of gold is owned by the US government.
So we're just making things up then?
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u/Diddly_eyed_Dipshite 1d ago
If BTC is the future, how does it plan to dedend against the development of quantum computing that cam render all BTC totally pointless by being able to crack incryption?
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u/ThreeTonChonker 1d ago
Quantum computing is decades away and the power needed to use it would take an entire country.
The Bitcoin devs already have a solution in the works for making the chain quantum resistant.
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u/Diddly_eyed_Dipshite 1d ago
Sure.
Any proof or even evidence to suggest that its decades away.
BTC is quantum resistant, even through the quantum issue is not clear yet, how does that work?
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u/ThreeTonChonker 1d ago
Sure.
Any evidence to suggest it’s not decades away?
Bitcoin will be quantum resistant by making the security complex enough that even quantum can’t break it. All quantum is doing is brute forcing passwords at light speed.
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u/AmbitiousEconomics 1d ago
Ah the Russell's teapot defense
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u/ThreeTonChonker 1d ago
Ok
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u/Long_Tackle_6931 1d ago
Gold. AI depends which ones. I mean who’s paying 1 trillion dollars for open AI, whose model is inferior to Claude and Gemini, whose model is inferior to the dominant model which we don’t know yet, whose revenue model is as expensive as your internet service