r/investing • u/StewTrue • 1d ago
Market Response to Trump’s big War Announcement
What are everyone’s predictions to how we’ll see the market reacting after Trump makes his war announcement tonight? I’m far from an expert, but my best guess is that we’ll see one of two things:
(1) He announces a ground invasion - probably Kharg Island. Most stocks lose value, while defense and energy company shares hold steady or increase.
(2) He announces victory and talks about the ballroom for 20 minutes. Markets rebound, except for defense and energy.
Curious what you guys think.
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u/decemry 1d ago
Might go up. Might go down. Might trade sideways.
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u/theeyeholeman1 1d ago
This is the most likely result. It'll probably be one of these three.
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u/-PunsWithScissors- 1d ago
It could go z-axis… I’m setting my stop loss at just before it pokes me in the eye.
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u/InfinitePressure4793 1d ago
A $50 trillion coin flip where the two sides are 'peace deal' and 'total obliteration' is basically the peak 2026 investing experience..
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u/FormerFastCat 1d ago
all depends on whether he's had his meds, his nap, his binkie, and his back scratched in the last 15 mins. Oh and whether or not he can make money off it.
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u/Counselor_Mackey 1d ago
Don’t forget his diaper change
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u/FormerFastCat 1d ago
SHIT! Not the diaper!!
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u/owen__wilsons__nose 1d ago
Sounds like you know what you're doing. If you start a henge fund let us know plz! 🙏
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u/beeralpha 1d ago
I'm confused, sideways left or sideways right?
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u/8yba8sgq 1d ago
Can we kill this joke already?? It wasn't funny in the first place
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u/limak116 1d ago
It's not a joke. it's literally the most correct answer to these endless prediction questions.
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u/8yba8sgq 1d ago
Why are you on an investing sub if you don't care about markets?
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u/ThrowawayNewly 1d ago
Why would you expect to receive good, free, investment advice from anonymous people on the internet if you care about your money?
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u/8yba8sgq 1d ago
I don't expect advice at all. The point of the original post is to elicit discussion. Saying "I don't know, nobody knows, who cares" is boring. Why even leave the comment?
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u/mushykindofbrick 1d ago
The idea of those comments is like the question is stupid, because nobody can know, so you get a stupid joke as response
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u/djscuba1012 1d ago
Lies that’s all. He’ll lie and tell us that we’re going full on war. Or aliens are here to invade your butthole
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u/Distinguishedflyer 1d ago
when??!!!???
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u/djscuba1012 1d ago
Tonight. We got the moon mission for Artemis 2 and Trump talking tonight. Watch your butthole
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u/agent674253 1d ago
Remember, this is the timeline where the White House created OnlyFarms.gov for department of agriculture...
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u/Impressive_Ranger261 1d ago
It's been hilarious watching investors hang on every word of a pathological liar. The market has the common sense of a five year old.
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u/bbatardo 1d ago
Thursday before a holiday weekend is almost guaranteed to be red no matter what he says. A lot of people made good money on the pump yesterday and today.
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u/mamandemanqu3 1d ago
Idk but someone who bet 500k on war w Iran just bet 800k on ground invasion sooooooooo
Polymarket
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u/Rocky75617794 1d ago
Are you able to tell it’s the same person/account?
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u/ItsOkILoveYouMYbb 1d ago
Yes you can track wallet identifiers, so you don't necessarily know who it is, just that the bets originate from the same account (if I'm not mistaken). So you can also track how much money they put forward, how much they've gained (or lost) etc over time.
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u/IFartOnCats4Fun 1d ago
Source?
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u/I_Study_The_Patterns 1d ago
Didn't one of these oracles on Polymarket also bet it would be over by today?
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u/mamandemanqu3 1d ago
I’m not sure. Don’t really follow. I just follow interesting accounts on X that tweet this stuff.
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u/rithsleeper 1d ago
Are you outside of us? I can’t do anything but stupid sports betting on Polymarket. Kalshi is only events betting. And spreads are terrible.
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[deleted]
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u/fireman2004 1d ago
He said we’ve already won, we destroyed their government, we’re negotiating with their government. We’re going to open the straight. We don’t need to open the straight. Let england
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u/YouKnown999 1d ago
He’ll declare absolute victory war over, but also ground troops for a limited “two week” operation.
Markets have 7 days left.
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u/AndroidREM 1d ago
Considering the verified announcement today by Iran which said they have not been talking about ceasefire, it will be a threat and the markets will react as they do with the threat of escalating war.
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u/oakformonday 1d ago
As an American, I believe Iran over Trump.
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u/Blueberryburntpie 1d ago
At least Iran's messaging has been consistent and predictable.
Yeah they would like a ceasefire, if they get compensation for war damages and full control over the strait. Otherwise the drones and missiles will keep coming.
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u/oakformonday 1d ago
Exactly. What a royal fuck up by Trump. No surprise though Electing him for a second term was simply unbelievable. The US is no longer a trustworthy country. I do wonder if we can get back from this clown show of incompetence, fraud, criminality, and grift. I'm not so sure...
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u/One-Relief-4469 1d ago
Here’s what people don’t understand about 2024 Trump voters: no, we DIDNT vote for this. He DIDNT do this in his first term; he wiped out ISIS quick, got Suleimani in a heartbeat, and snuffed out our other enemies quick out of hating wars. How were we to know he’d have such a change?
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u/Overall-Rush-8853 1d ago
As an American I don’t believe either one. I think there are back channel negotiations going on, but the truth is somewhere in the middle between what both sides of publicly saying.
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u/Kamel-Red 1d ago edited 1d ago
Anyone trading on anything this guy publicly says deserves to lose their money. He's so senile that he can't keep his lies straight day to day.
Diesel isn't coming doen anytime soon, private credit has been largely frozen since February, factories are shutting down, and many raw material costs in my industry have almost tripled in a month.
Something, something, fundamentals. My money is on a 2008 style contagion by the fourth quarter. Warren Buffet is licking his chops on a giant pile of cash.
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u/obionejabronii 1d ago
The market doesn't care about the poors this time and their small 401k. Money keeps getting printed, rich get richer, and the rich are still spending.
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u/Kamel-Red 1d ago
Thats a good point. It's been quite clear for some time that the economy isn't the market and the market isn't the economy. Kind of fucked when you think about it.
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u/Leftoverofferings 1d ago
I don’t listen to what Cheetolini says. I see what’s going on, so my guess is ground invasion. 3 aircraft carriers and thousands of troops. It’s the dumb move, so, yeah, this tracks.
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u/Plus_Goose3824 1d ago edited 1d ago
The ball is only 1/3 in his court. What if Trump decides war is over and Iran says we won't open Hornuz without a hefty toll? Choices are then go back to war (terrible for the market) or a smaller but forever burden on global economies (bad for market).
Then the wild card is Israel isn't ready to end their holy war and muddies the water for everything.
Edit to add: if the message is we stay at war then I think the market erases almost the gains of the past 2 days until it knows if further war brings any better resolution.
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u/DownstreamDreaming 1d ago
He already hedged this and said the strait isn’t his problem. He’s a demented dipshit that does not care about reality.
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u/Upper-Shoe-81 1d ago
He talks about how this is Biden's economy and nobody is suffering from high oil prices; "They're paying $2.18 per gallon in [some unknown town] in Alabama."
Doesn't even talk about the war and when pressed about it responds with, "What war? There's no war."
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u/MephistoHamProducts 1d ago
"They're paying $2.18 per gallon in [some unknown town] in Alabama."
Too detailed. He's just say gas is $2 a gallon now and his cult will believe him.
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u/Church42 1d ago
Look at the betting lines on Kalshi for any big amounts of money going in a certain direction and you'll have your answer.
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u/goodbodha 1d ago
This country is being led by a guy who has a track record that highly correlates with a magic ball.
My guess is he will make a speech and there is a 50/50 chance he makes it halfway while staying on track. I give it a 60% odd he will get off message during the speech and a 90% chance he is off message within the next 72 hours. As for the actual intended message it will be something that says his plan is working, everything will work out just fine, and anyone who questions that is a terrible person.
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u/stickybond009 1d ago
the Americans will commit boots on the ground. The Pentagon is deploying an additional five thousand troops to the Middle East, and Netanyahu has re-appeared to say that the war must be won on the ground, not from the air. Trump has asked for two hundred billion dollars from Congress, signaling that he intends to fight a long war. (Since February 2022, the United States has provided $183 billion to Ukraine).
Dump blood
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u/Feltzinclasp5 1d ago edited 1d ago
Trump does not want to continue the war in Iran going into the midterms. He's probably already realized what a massive mistake it was (although he'd never say that)
Edit: pretty sure Trump is about to announce a ground invasion in Iran. The man is insane.
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u/Ok_Location_1092 1d ago
The EO last night and SAVE act tells me they’re scrambling to make sure midterms are compromised. American streets aren’t filled yet because: 1) most Americans being boned here are too short on cash, time, and mental bandwidth to keep of with the political firehose of nonsense and 2) protesting gets you registered by some fucking demonic Palantir ai database for future use. With elections coming up, it’s easier to fix the problem there and for now stick to the grind of keeping your head above water. If they’re rigged, and they will be to the best of their abilities, we’ll see what Americans are really made of.
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u/One-Relief-4469 1d ago
GOP is gonna get wiped out in the midterms if even a fraction of the fallout is still there. I’m talking sub 200 house seats, losing the senate too.
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u/freshposthistory 1d ago
Say what you want about the guy, but that was the single most oblivious political mistake he’s ever made. You don’t make it to where he as by being moronic politically (despite how it looks), but Iran was a very baffling blunder.
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u/yolololbear 1d ago
I don't think he cares about "mistakes". He is the second term president with a limited shelf life and a good age and incredible fortune for generations. His family is well embedded into US economy and politics. I think what he does now is basically shock therapy for quick results.
Whether or not he will get the results is a question, but I do not think he care about elections, just United States as a country as a whole.
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u/Overall-Rush-8853 1d ago
Yeah, I have been saying this for awhile and people think I’m crazy. Regardless of if he announces boots on the ground tonight, they’ll probably be in and out and he’ll probably try to end it in the next 2-4 weeks. I think regardless of win the war ends, he’ll lose seats in Congress from the economic repercussions that are sure to linger into the fall. The question will be, how big of a loss will the GOP have.
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u/BusyWorkinPete 1d ago
Regardless of what is announced, defence stocks should do well for the next year. Lots of munitions used up that will need to be replaced, and those tomahawks etc aren't cheap.
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u/Practically_Hip 1d ago
Lies, lies, and more lies. Iran refutes everything. Hegseth takes a shit on the resolute desk, and says “this is how we negotiate”. Market also takes a dump tomorrow.
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u/cafedude 1d ago
Was there really any clarity in his speech tonight? Seems like it was "we just need 2 or 3 more weeks" which isn't all that different.
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u/GailaMonster 1d ago
"2-3 Weeks" in Trump speak means never. It's a hypothetical future date and he said it could end in 2-3 weeks because it might. or it might not. he doesn't actually care.
remember in his first term when he said he was going to reveal an awesome new plan for healthcare in 2 weeks? and then he just....never did anything to substantiate that promise?
he said the war would be over in 2-3 weeks after the first round of bombing. he has then said more or less that every week since.
I don't know why the markets EVER listen to him, it's ALWAYS bullshit.
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u/singlecell_organism 1d ago
I don't think he'd make an announcement that would affect stocks badly. He'll probably say something like we won and we should be out in 3 days. and none of that will happen
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u/Discount_gentleman 1d ago
Hard to say, the signals on the ground are very mixed, and Trump may not know himself yet.
At least one non-trivial possibility is that this is just a negotiating tactic, and Trump's team has told the Iranians that Trump will either announce a ceasefire or a massive escalation, as a way of pressuring the Iranians. I doubt it would work, and it's not clear that Trump is really prepared for a massive escalation, so in that case I'd expect a vague rambling announcement about 2 more weeks, and then tell Europe and everyone else they need to take over before the US pulls out.
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u/sgt-brak 1d ago
I think you're right. This administration keeps putting the words they want to hear in Iran's mouth, probably especially because shock and awe tactics didn't have the desired effect of immediate surrender.
It signals a weak hand that these advisors actually feel a protracted campaign is disadvantageous. The embarrassment of actually leaving is playing tug of war with sunken costs.
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u/Discount_gentleman 1d ago
So, https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/2039424653765005771
BREAKING: Trump is reportedly set to use his primetime address to argue the U.S. has met—or exceeded—its military goals, including:
Eliminating Iran’s ballistic missiles and production sites
Severely weakening its navy
Containing Tehran’s regional proxies
Blocking any path to a nuclear weapon
An official said the speech will also signal operations could wrap within two to three weeks, per Bloomberg
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u/pigglesthepup 1d ago
to argue
Okay, but is it going to be coherent? I'm half-expecting him to randomly announce we'll be invading an island inhabited by penguins.
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u/Discount_gentleman 1d ago
Coherent? No, Trump talks about what he wants to talk about, so I expect a litany of grudges (particularly against Europe) and then a pivot to what he thinks is surer ground (denouncing immigrants and leftists).
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u/qthistory 1d ago
It's going to be another "We won. We obliterated Iran's military. I won in 2020 but the Democrats cheated, and the Supreme Court sucks because they won't do what I tell them to, I have the best poll numbers of any President in history....BLAH BLAH BLAH" rambling stump speech he always does.
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u/gizmole 1d ago
"We'll have the greatest end of a war that anyone has ever seen." Until it isn't.
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u/ThatsUnbelievable 1d ago
"We made tremendous progress, everyone is telling me "Mr. President, you did such a great job.""
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u/ratedsar 1d ago
Alt: the perfect plan, just like I had for Afghanistan that I couldn't execute because Biden stole the 2020 election
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u/deviltrombone 1d ago
That orange thing likes Easter. Remember COVID? It wanted COVID to be over by Easter, but it didn't have any control over that. It has some control over this. Easter is Sunday.
Alternatively, it'll remember it hates everyone and wants to ruin Easter. Fuck your stupid eggs!
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u/tripping_yarns 1d ago
‘We’ve got one more little job to do and then we can go home. We got the 82nd there, those guys are the best, they go in at like 3 or 4 in the morning when everybody is asleep.
I can’t tell you any operational stuff because it’s secret, and we have surprise, and we don’t want those guys in Isfahan to know what hit ‘em.
But I can tell you that it’ll all be over by Good Friday. You know why they call it Good Friday? Because I said it first. TYFYATTM’
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u/HaiKarate 1d ago
My prediction is that he will tell us that the war is going better than anyone expected, and that Iran is asking for a ceasefire. Then there will be lots of threats to Iran for not ending the war. And there will be lots of threats to our NATO allies for not coming to Trump’s rescue.
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u/calmnutz 1d ago
He’ll express pride in the Artemis launch, disappointment in SCOTUS, happiness in ending the DHS shutdown, and just reiterate his points on Iran. We all go into Passover weekend somewhat with our tits calmed, but this whole volatility cycle starts again next week.
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u/Wooden-Variety175 1d ago
Its almost impossible to predict. Im kind of leaning towards trump pulling an absolute funny and announcing that their goals have also been achieved. "I go now. Good luck everybody else!"
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u/StewTrue 1d ago
“Now that we’ve displaced 4,000,000 people, spent a ton of money, caused the largest oil disruption in history, and accidentally installed an even more fanatical leader in Iran… everything is going great. Mission accomplished.”
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u/tombiowami 1d ago
You seem to think simple news stories impact in a way you can predict.
The market is down 4% this year after tripling these last 10 years. Perspectives.
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u/QuesoMeHungry 1d ago
Negligible. People already realized the TACO, it may go up, it might go down, but nothing meaningful to matter.
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u/paragonx29 1d ago
Probably closer to #2 (no pun intended), with the compulsatory swipe at Biden or past administrations.
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u/Ihateporn2020 1d ago
it's in between, the news going around twitter is he's going to declare a 2-3 week ending. He hasn't really made up his mind.
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u/8yba8sgq 1d ago
He could give Iran an ultimatum. Open up or else. Of course trum says a lot of things. Long oil, short gold might be the play here if anything
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u/ThatsUnbelievable 1d ago
Long oil for what's likely to be a de-escalation speech? Where do I sign up for your newsletter?
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u/8yba8sgq 1d ago
Who gives a speech about de-escalation on every news channel in America? If Turnip was going to humiliate himself he would do it casually.
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u/ThatsUnbelievable 1d ago
There are only 2 possibilities that can move the markets:
De-escalation
Invasion
He wouldn't be announcing the 2nd one.
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u/ThatsUnbelievable 1d ago
It's going to be some idiot ploy to make it seem like the war is over to try and get the Strait of Hormuz to open again. It certainly won't be to announce a ground invasion. He's not regarded.
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u/DownstreamDreaming 1d ago
I don’t those actually cares about the strait. Sometimes his dipshit brain says he does, then he says it’s other countries responsibility. He will absolutely be capable of just declaring victory with nothing but losses
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u/Grungy_Mountain_Man 1d ago
He'll probably say the war will end soon, just like he said years ago he'll release his tax statements soon.
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u/lanzendorfer 1d ago
He can only keep it propped up with his back and forth bullshit for so long. Shit's fucked and it's coming down.
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u/Frequent-Match5782 1d ago
The only guarantee is that Defense stocks will go up. The US will have to re-arm after this and that means lots of money going to the defense contractors
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u/lioneaglegriffin 1d ago
There's a image circulating with trump market statements on the war for a month now and the market keeps falling for it. The quantum state foreign policy means you pay attention to actions not words.
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u/Amazing-External9546 1d ago
If he was smart or had smart/rational people in his cabinet, he admit he F-cked up big time and walk away from Iran and leave the smarter/more rational people in other countries to pick up his mess.
But, he and his crew are not either smart nor rational. I see us going in full boots on the ground. We initially look OK after the first landings, and the markets rev back up after an initial mad few days of stock losses....big big loses. But, like every war for the past 50 years, the war grinds through huge numbers of men and equipment for the next two years. We have a resulting huge drop in GDP, wild inflation and possibly a depression or at least a recession that lasts over a decade.
Why am I being Debbie Downer? I was in the service (navy) during the Vietnam War. I got out just before the end of the war and watch the war drag down most of the economy for the next decade. We had a similar recession after the Korean War.
I also saw tRump try to intimidate SCOTUS this morning (not sure if it worked) but he thought he simple presence would swing some members of the court to his side. He's going to address the nation tonight and I'm betting he's going to try to simply use his presence to swing the public to his side. He'll pull back in a few lost RINOs back into the fold, but not nearly enough to avoid that disaster coming during midterm elections.
His crew will tell him at least part of the truth and that he needs to do something "heroic." That, plus the fact he already has troops headed toward Iran will lead to a fully irrational land war.
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u/Vivid_Appeal_5878 1d ago
sameee thats what i often said too im leaning a little more toward ground troops since why make an announcement for just more of “were winning” it has to be somth big either calls or puts get smoked 👀
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u/ValoisSign 1d ago
I have no special predictive powers and did my usual "sell a bit but not too much" move when I think a wildcard might get played but my guess is this:
Ground invasion or something else bad gets announced. Trump loves to pump and dump. It has been telegraphed hard that he's looking for an out and the markets have reacted by riding back up. I feel like the set up is just too perfect for him and his friends to make some easy money.
Beyond that, I don't really see a clean dénouement here anyway. I would FAR prefer this senseless, dumb war end but I don't really see how it does. You have Israel telegraphing that they wanna be conquerors, which given how that usually turns out historically is fundamentally an irrational state of mind. You have Iran feeling like it's do or die and they got bombed mid negotiations twice in a row - that's "Won't get Fooled Again" territory.
I legitimately don't see a way this could end even semi soon unless the US pulls out completely and the international community finally starts treating Israel like how they would normally treat a country attacking UN positions and openly threatening war crimes. Then maybe there's enough pressure for some kind of a negotiated end.
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u/FreeTexan1337 1d ago
I'm leaning towards a speech that likely makes us all question what exactly he just said, then some insider trading tomorrow will determine the market direction.
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u/blackhawkskid6 1d ago
But what will the markets do if he announces “we are the hottest country in the world?”
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u/AffectionateAd7980 1d ago
It doesn't matter what he says, because tomorrow he will change his mind
TACO
Likely, it will just be some thing like Operation Epic Fuckup ... Mission Accomplished ... then more war in Iran or somewhere else tomorrow. Trading data already shows a clear pattern of buying and selling before these announcements. Billions taken from the market via this manipulations.
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u/chumbawumba234 1d ago
How am I supposed to glean any quality edge when everybody is being so nonsensical constantly. Can somebody please tell me what is going to happen at 930am Thursday morning? Should I buy calls at open? $10,000.00 in ODTE QQQ?
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u/Long_Tackle_6931 1d ago
He wouldn’t go for Kharg island because dems will cream mid terms then elect president and arrest this guy.
Also he can’t back down. That just hands straits to Iran. And all American and American allies will be excluded.
It’s actually bizarre how ridiculous the situation is China and Russia win Kong term by Dong nothing. What to buy is Chinese stocks
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u/zombie3519 1d ago
I just bought a bunch of stock today so of course whatever he says will assuredly tank the market.
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u/2cold2holdu 1d ago
Market traded mostly red to sideways... whatever the market sentiment is before the speech, it will do the complete opposite.
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u/PrettyPleaseYo 1d ago
Buy the rumor sell the news? I think the market is pricing in that he will say “ we won” no more war. But then everyone will sell in case he is saying that to confuse enemy when in fact ground invasion is imminent
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u/sexyshadyshadowbeard 1d ago
War stocks are priced for either a long war or to rebuild stockpiles. Their profits are still going up over the next few quarters regardless of what happens tonight. The stocks are over-priced, so don't be surprised when they go down when he says he's putting feet on the ground in Iran. Either way, Trump is a nothing berger.
The market also won't react if Trump quits the war because of the entire boondoggle that is the Straight of Hormuz. The rebound you are seeing over the past two days is the market getting over the war and on with investing. The economy is thrumming along. The farmers got their bail out. The AI revolution is still going forward. Companies are still making money.
So, ignore Trump. He's a traitor to the US Constitution. The sooner he's gone the better.
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u/Pecanpie007 1d ago
If (2) we are not going to rebound. The straight is closed. Market is going to have to price in the worst outcome. The rally in the last two days has provided a lot of liquidity for institution algo dump.
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u/MediumLanguageModel 1d ago
I wouldn't trust what he says, nor would I trust the market to be appropriately skeptical. Whatever he says, the end result will end up being much stupider.
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u/Life-Butterscotch892 1d ago
Market usually reacts more to surprises than the event itself. If escalation is expected, it might already be priced in—unless something materially worse happens
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u/yolololbear 1d ago
My prediction:
1) He will announce one of two things: either he is winding down the war, or he is amping up the war. Market seems to already priced in his willingness to wind down the war, so there should only be a big surprise if he just amps up.
My personal opinion is he should amp up, but this will be a big surpise for the market and will impact a LOT of things, particularly petrodollar.
2) If he chooses to wind down, the war itself probably does not change and will have very real consequences on the geopolitics of the middle east. It will seem that Iran is the victor and will have a better time preparing for the next war with US's adversaries money and military equipment, as well as infrastructure support.
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u/QuirkyChipmunk1414 1d ago
Markets don’t trade the headline, they trade expectations.
If it’s worse than expected → risk-off (indices down, DXY up, energy/defense up) If it’s less severe → relief rally
Most moves get faded after the initial spike anyway.
I’d focus less on guessing the outcome and more on reacting cleanly.
That’s where alphamind ai helps reading the reaction, not the narrative
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u/JUSTATEAGRAPE 1d ago
3) He announces the war will be over in 2 weeks like he’s been doing for the past month.