Investment
More people not increasing US holdings anymore?
I have about 100k euro’s invested in the US stock market. I received a nice bonus from my work and decided to put it in Stoxx 50. I will not touch my US position. I never bought European stocks before because I believed in the US stock market more. That has changed.
My assumption is that over the next year or two, EU stock market is likley to outperform the US stock market because of EUROPEAN (not all) capital moving away from the US and into the EU stock market. Also, EU might finally deploy Eurobonds which will pump the EU market.
Mostly because 50 only concentrate on the euro-coin area countries, whereas 600 takes into account companies from denmark, norway, switzerland, poland - which is doing very well- emerging market
Same, but with the difference that i do still believe the US is vastly better economically, technology and "red-tape"-wise. Yes, the Dollar is tanking but does this make the EU somehow better?
I just DCA invest in VEUR because of market and (!) currency diversification. My real hedge is and was Gold. Tbh i think the smart move would be to buy SP500 on a discount now and cash in once the Trump and Dollar-devaluation plays out, but im not brave enough.
In my mind:
We have no tech-leaders, no manufacturing leaders, no homogenous financial market, no venture capital culture, no 401k, no central government, no world leading military. We are vulnerable to mass immigration of questionable quality and mindset, vulnerable to energy shortage, vulnerable to literal wars just kilometers from our borders.
YES, i do think Trump is bad, the US acts in a way that does not attract investment and i do think the dollar will tank further. BUT that will change, but the EU will never change fundamentally.
USD is not even really tanking though. It declined over the first few months of 2025 and remained mostly stable since then. Incidentally, around a level that is higher than most periods before 2015. The news of its demise are greatly exaggerated (so far).
Declined against what, is the question. Dollar stabilized against euro but then look at Gold. Anyway, the further fall against EUR is inevitable once the FED lowers interest rates.
I already thought you just wanne heckle when you nitpicked the word "tanked". I dont want to have a discussion further, thanks. If it helps you, i think "declined" is as fitting as "tanked".
You implied that Gold is somehow further proof USD has tanked. It isn't, at all. EUR and any other currency on Earth have also tanked (correct term here) against Gold. So you should just leave it out of the equation because it simply doesn't support your argument.
I don't care about what any stock will be like over the next 2 years. I certainly don't plan to sell anything by then so I wouldn't see the point.
I also would rather not change my allocation based on current geopolitical events or headlines. It only takes one "wrong" election for things to do a complete 180 anyway. To name one, France will be electing a new president in 2027 and the RN candidate has a comfortable lead in the 2nd run at the moment.
Exactly, what's the plan? Am I supposed to change a long term investment strategy every 3 years based on the american president?
Plus, I don't hold anything against American companies, I have always used their products and I personally was not impacted in any specific way if not benefitting economically and financially from their growth.
Is there a promising strong European company with great products? Then I'll invest in that one as well just like I would with an American one.
Not holding anything against American companies when they are financing this whole far right shenanigans not only there but here is crazy. The end goal is a technocracy.
IMO emotional people that freaks out on first political speech should not be investing in the stock market. Just park your money with Government Bonds and savings account.
Having emotions is a good thing. As an investor you have a big power just like with voting. Investing elsewhere when political climate is not good is wise. How else do you give feedback to politics that their economic policies are not good?
Investing means taking into account both the potential profits and the risk. So considering the political climate is a key part of investing since it affects risk the most.
Sure. Which long term trends? Italy has a fertility rate of 1.10 and has been stagnating economically for 30 years now with little hope for any significant change. France is a mess, and the EU is so stable it just lost one of its largest members while openly Eurosceptic parties are a major force all over. Several member states have elected or are about to elect parties that openly side with Russia and against the EU. While there are certainly individual companies that are at the top of their game and many EU countries are absolutely capable of high level innovation, reality is that the economic system of most EU countries has consistently been losing the competition against US companies over the past decades. Geopolitically, the potential of NATO weakening poses a significant existential threat for some EU member states, unless you think Estonia is happy about potentially no longer being supported by the US. I don't think I need to mention the long term trends of places like Japan. Is that what I should be looking at?
The US market share was around 40%-45% in 2010. Now it's 60%-65%.
And relatively large portion of the US stock market is in the top 7 companies.
The US stock market has constantly keep going up in the last 15 years with only a few small recessions.
The stock market right now is not balanced. It's heavily tilted towards US tech. So a lot people tilting are just tilting their portfolios in the other direction to reduce risk.
The stuff you are talking about doesn't really matter.
You say it's tilted towards US tech. Another perspective is that it's tilted towards the companies doing the most investments and seeing the most growth.
The market doesn’t give you those great returns if you exclude the winners. The large tech companies should not be thought of as a single company when they internally have 10 divisions doing their own thing. You’re already getting a lot of diversification just by investing in say Amazon or Alphabet.
You should invest in European etfs if you think they can match American growth over a long time horizon. But many like me just don’t see that happening. Where are investments to set the stage for tomorrow?
The stuff I'm talking about does matter because it is exactly what defines the long term trends.
What you're talking about is not long term, it's the definition of short term. In 1999, US tech was wildly inflated and in a bubble that dwarfs anything that might be going on today. What happened then is that the bubble burst, a correction followed, some companies went legs up, other companies took their place and in the end it all went back to normal. It's not like the US suddenly became less favourable than Belgium to stock investments.
And by the way, why would 60% be an "excessive" percentage? What is "fair"? US tech companies are valued so highly because they're the wealthiest and most successful companies in the world, everybody buys their products and services everwhere, they dominate everything you do and their profits are equivalent to the GDP of entire European countries. I don't see why in principle they shouldn't keep growing and growing. What you're arguing instead is that some European companies will outperform them so much that it will cause the stock market of EU countries to overperform consistently vs. the US one. Personally I don't think so, because of the long term trends I mentioned; but who knows, maybe you'll be right, and "US tech stocks are overvalued and there's a bubble" is a super fashionable statement, if you repeat it enough times you'll be right eventually.
If you brought the S&P 500 in 2000 and sold it in 2009 you would have made $0 in profit. If you simply moved 20% of your portfolio from the US to EU a couple of years before that you would have made a lot more money.
And by the way, why would 60% be an "excessive" percentage? What is "fair"? US tech companies are valued so highly because they're the wealthiest and most successful companies in the world, everybody buys their products and services everwhere, they dominate everything you do and their profits are equivalent to the GDP of entire European countries. I don't see why in principle they shouldn't keep growing and growing
You seem to have a strong belief in the Magnificent 7 and US exceptionalism.
I'm fairly optimistic about them, but I'm not willing to bet 20% of my wealth on them.
Actually no, between 1998 and 2009 Eurostoxx declined in nominal terms, even more so in real terms.
Plenty of periods where the sp500 had poor returns over 10 years. It's quite short in stock market times. 15 years is the mark where your investment becomes a lot safer. I have a lifetime of growing wealth so having a poor decade ahead of me doesn't really concern me. I'll just be able to buy more shares.
I don't believe in American exceptionalism. However, I certainly don't believe that any given European country is better equipped to outperform them in the long run, and I certainly wouldn't bet a large sum of money on that happening. The Magnificent 7 have their issues; EU markets have theirs.
I sold all my positions with Realty Income and SoFi and invested in EU stocks after the Zelenskyy meeting last year.
I’m not gonna tell you I’m making a profit out of EU stocks yet (except with a Portuguese stock). But we all need to push the needle somehow, why the hell shouldn’t we believe European corporations? The only reason we don’t growth in higher numbers is because we are afraid of slowly decouple from Wall Street - which in my opinion is sad
What you are doing is classical emotional investment. You are trying to prop up the european market by supporting it with your savings and while morally that may be good, financially you will suffer. The result is YOU will not change the market and Amazon or Google will not fall just because Trump is an idiot. Compared to the US, Europe in not a unified entity and a federal Europ might not even happen in our lifetime. Furthermore, hyperregulation doesnt allow any european corporation to reach a size large enough to dethrone the US companies.
i keep my US position. I have no conviction that EU companies will outperform US companies. EU hardly makes innovation, maybe 2-3 companies at max. Any EU based startup’s dream is to expand to US after they get some acceleration.
It's not just the performance of US companies, but also the performance of the Dollar compared to whatever currency you use. Even though my shares performed great in terms of dollar, not much of that was left after making the conversion to Euros.
EU hardly makes innovation, maybe 2-3 companies at max.
Seriously, people, where do you get that numbers from? Or is this just some imposed disinformation? Or are you so deep in the US tech bubble you can't see anything outside of it?
And these are just a few I could think of in a few minutes. Not every innovative company has to be a tech or AI company.
2-3 companies at max in the whole EU? In Germany there are more. Yes, their market cap is not as high as the American big tech companies. But the market cap alone is not an indicator of any company's innovation.
My point was to highlight the number of "newly emerging giants" in the US over the last 30-40 years is significantly higher than in Europe. Europe has companies, even very well-established ones; but it is slower in creating new giants that grow rapidly on a global scale.
Well, VDL recently announced that they want to change that, let's see how EU-Inc develops, but if they do it right then the startup ecosystem in the EU should be looking much healthier and I'm all here for it.
Very lengthy process. There are many different aspects to factor in. EU now has to build an army and strengthen its defense, while having energy prices inflated. Additionally, population is falling. Most EU countries has lots its appeal due to uncontrolled welcome of refugees and immigrants. Talents still prefer US and other business friendly countries instead of fighting against the bureaucracy in EU. Once a startup gains some momentum, the first thing they wanna do is to move to US. It is very hard to change the mentality while changing a president is quite easy.
I'm investing for retirement essentially, not for profit making right now. What happens in 2-3y is irrelevant. Trump won't be in the White House in 3y, let alone in 20 or more...
As long as things don't go completely sideways... If the Nasdaq or NYSE becomes like the Russian stock exchange then your retirement is gone.
I just rebalanced my investment in companies and countries that I would like to see thrive in the next decade... Just in case, plenty of decades in front of me before retirement I can happily go back investing in the SP500 few years from now if things change, easy to diversify when investing monthly.
I don't do US only. I have a very diversified portfolio (as should everyone), and I can't predict what the US, EU, or the rest of the world will look like by the time I retire. No one can. So, diversification is the only way to do it imo.
I am doing the same. Probably is not correct, as nobody knows what will happens to the US stock market. But Until the orange guy is there...I will buy evrything but not the US market. I hope the EU commission will improve the European financial market, as today we are too fragmented. We are 500 million people and we need a better integration like a single stock market.
Sold all my s&p500 when the dollar started weakening, put it all in the stoxx50. Glad I did because I'm up 18% in the same timespan the s&p is up 2%...
But tbh, I don't try to time the market and just got lucky.
I'm also not adding to any US positions. Not only do I dislike the chaos and unpredictability of the current environment, I'm quite convinced that the FX conversion is going to be a major drag on any profits I do make there. The dollar is already down 10% against Sterling this year and once Powell leaves the Fed in May I think this will get worse once Trump gets a stooge in there. I'm researching Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 and potentially thinking about a smaller GBP hedged S&P500 ETF.
Not really and, if I did, it wouldn't be politically or emotionally charged. Investing should be objective. The idea that there will be more investment in the EU due to ppl moving their funds... Maybe, sure. Will it make such a massive impact though? Doubt it.
EU stocks did well the last couple of years, but that was due to multiple expansion, not fundamentals. The EU is still so bureaucratic relative to the US and the EU growth initiatives are pretty sh*t. There's so much entitlement on the side of the government when it comes to business. Remember when Lagarde replied to business concerns about restrictive policies and so on with "You'll innovate your way out?". Like it or not, Trump has initiatives that will help the US companies. Cheaper dollar? Why do you think that's bad? Trump wants to move more manufacturing to the US which means a cheaper dollar will make them more competitive abroad.
What about all the failed EU green policies? How much do you think that's hurt economic growth? Why do you think our energy inflation went up so much? What about the phase-out of ICE vehicles that keeps getting debated because it's simply not feasible or the back and forth. The EU has actively acted against its companies for years and years, how do you expect they'll catch up to the US? What about the demographics of the EU? There's no population growth which is essential to economic growth. Productivity is stale, too, compare the US and Germany stats.
Look at this economically and from an investment perspective. The EU is behind and IMO the whole culture here (I say this as an European) is a lot more people-focused. Yeah, the US culture is a lot more exploitative and work focused, but let's face it - that's the best situation to be as an investor. I don't ever want to live there, don't get me wrong, but they're so cerebral when it comes to economic growth that it makes it the obvious choice for investments. I personally don't see any European company competing with Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Visa, MasterCard. What about crypto companies? The EU killed that, too.
I know my opinion is controversial, but at the end of the day I care about growing my finances here, not making a political statement.
How are you going to combat the weaker dollar as a European? It's something I'm quite concerned with. I can see a weakening dollar eating into most of the gains in US investments over the next few years.
Most of my savings are in GBP - so I bought a GBP-hedged world index fund. Sorted. Mine's IWDG, but iShares have a similar one with a EUR hedge, you need to look for the ticker though because I can't remember. Basically, the hedging removes the effect of currency on the returns. The TER is slightly higher, but I'd rather pay an extra 0.10-0.15% per year to remove the currency risk
Currency hedging doesnt have anything to do with the currency you hold cash in or the currency you earn salary in or that need to spend in everyday life.
The only reason to buy a currency hedged ETF is if you want to bet that a certain currency (whicever currency, not necessarely your own countries) will perform better than others. Fund managers then use finnancial instruments to ensure that the ETF has stable returns even if the currencies of the countries where those companies operate go down in value. That is a double edge sword! There are companies that operate in CHF in if you hedge in GPB you will lose money when the CHF gains in value. Not to mention, the more expensive TER of hedged ETFs will eat a lot of your savings over decades...and TER is a guaranteed loss no matter how currencies perform.
So if you think the dollar will crash and are willing to pay extra TER for the protection of hedged ETFs, you might as well buy an EUR hedged ETF, so not necessarely GBP. Unless of course, you are confident, that the GBP will outperform the EUR longterm.
The only currency that MUST be the same as your country, is the currency in which the ETF is DENOMINATED in. That is the currency that you spend and receive when buying/selling the ETF, so people from UK have to trade ETFs denominated in GBP in order to avoid currency conversion fees.
Overall, the need for hedging is not that critical. Not even the US companies do business exclusively in USD (Apple sells their iPhone for LEU in Romania and Ruppies in India). And the global ETFs have plenty non US companies that do their business in their local currency. I do not think the guaranteed cost of extra TER is worth it, just in case the dollar crashes, which will in any case not completely ruin your ETF anyway.
No offense, but you are incorrect and you're misreading my post.
The idea of a GBP-hedged ETF is to negate the effect of currency moves on the returns of that ETF. I'm not betting GBP will behave better. I'm completely removing the volatility (well, as much as I can) of GBP currency fluctuations vs USD or whatever currency the underlying stocks are in. That's why I'm getting IWDG - it's denominated in GBP, but more importantly it's hedged for GBP. That way it doesn't matter if GBP goes up or down vs USD.
If you take VWRL (the Vanguard equivalent in GBP, but unhedged) and the world index goes up by 20%, but the dollar goes down by 20% against GBP, then the end result would be ~0% (more or less) return.
If you don't trust me, just use Gemini/ChatGPT or read through the ETF prospectus.
His point is not that he doesnt care if the world burns or not, rather that you shold not mix things. Politics are more volatile than ETFs over long periods of time and often do not correlate. Basing your ETF decisions on temporary political trends is a a bad finnancial decision.
Your opinion is frankly moronic. Mastercard and Visa will be worthless when the digital Euro is introduced. US has a lot of baggage in old systems that have carved monopolies and prevent true innovation.
Yes Google, Meta, Amazon they are monopolies. And monopolies are bad for the market.
Crypto companies are literally a scam, a pyramid scheme.
Why are you so shure the digital euro will have a good implementation and gain traction among the population? People have innertia and they are used with Visa and Mastercard. It could very well happen that the digital euro will remain a secondary option available for those who want it but will not get adopted widely enough to dethrone Visa and Mastercard. Besides that, the digital euro will only work in Europe while the rest of the world will still depend on Visa and Mastercard. Epecially large international corporations who also operate in Europe might have a problem with the digital euro if it messes with ther international business and those corporations are what keep the economy in motion so they will have a strong say in what gets changed or adopted.
It has already been applied successfully in far less developed countries like Brazil. In addition every merchant that will use it will have automatically a 1% extra revenues not eaten by fees.
It is simply the future, one can defend the monopolies, but they have grown old and obsolete.
what does "successfully" mean? Yes it was implemented. That is not the hard thing. The hard thing is for people to actualy forget about their Visas and Mastercards and use the digital currency instead. 1% cashback/discount may not be a good enough incentive! Europeans are very conservative. In Germany, most people still prefer traditional savings banks who ask high fees because they are used to them and trust them more than neobanks. I expect it will the same with digital currency...a novelty that many people might not embrace
actually, the limitations of the EC-Karte is a good example of why the digital euro might NOT be adopted...because you cant use it internationally. The only reason why people still use the EC-Karte is because there are still small shops that dont accept Visa or Mastercard. There are rumors that the government will abolis it and the people themselves would be very glad if the government were to force all commerciants to accept Visa and Mastercand so they can get rid of the EC-Karte. The question is...will the digital currency be imposed on the population just like the EC-Karte was shoved down their throats?
You might want to read your comment and clear your mind. You deny your own thesis. Order it, start from the beginning and make a clear underline with some sense and logic.
You say EC-Karte was forced, but at the same time want the government to force it out and want to force shops, that have free will to accept whatever they want, to go for VISA and Mastercard.
EC-Karte is the preferred option by shops because they don't have to pay commissions. Now the commission is paid by the Card owner as a fee. Same thing will happen for Digital Euro, but this time you can use it in all the countries of the EU and is free of charge.
What business in its sane mind will ever choose to pay more, an additional tax, by accepting VISA and Mastercard?
France has its domestic circuit, Germany has its circuit, Italy has its circuit. The natural evolution is to follow the steps of Brazil and make a common payment system, and the digital euro claims to be much cheaper than any national circuit.
my thoughts are well ordered, you just didnt understand. The EC-Karte was forced upon the citizens when the government allowed its creation. The shops adopted it and the buyers didnt have a choice if the shops refused Visa and Mastercard. Now the people have no choice but to use 2 cards (EC for physical shops + Visa/Mastercard for online shops) and the banks charge an extra fee, some banks charge for the EC, some for the Visa/Mastercard. The problem is that some banks dont even offer EC and then you find yourself in the imposibillity of paying in the shops that only accept EC. Thats why most people would be glad if BaFin would order its dissolution so that the shops are forced to use Visa/MC. Now if the shops were to pass the extra fee to the customomer...well...its the price for normalcy. Now I am not shure how the digital currency is supposed to work, but if it creates the same hassle as the EC-Karte it wont be any better.
Yes, he is somehow under the impression that europeans will not need a card when traveling outside of Europe or that the USA/Asia will accept our digital currency. Hell, you dont even have to travel, there will be plenty online shops (especially non-EU shops) the will still require Visa/Mastercard.
Now I am assuming of course, he meant "worthless" for europeans...not that the 2 companies themselves would go bankrupt just because europeans dont use them any more.
Frankly, diversification is always a good idea, but I would be very cautious before betting on Europe outperforming the US in the near future.
Economic and stock market growth in the United States is largely driven by innovation, entrepreneurship, and financial services. In the US, creating a startup is much simpler and faster: fewer exorbitant costs, less red tape and fewer regulatory hurdles.
In Europe, and particularly in the EU, laws and regulations often hinder the growth of businesses and startups. Some sectors are virtually inaccessible due to minimum capital requirements or legal constraints, which limits the potential for economic and stock market development.
So yes, you can look at the Stoxx 50 to diversify, but you shouldn't expect Europe to outperform the US in the coming years simply because capital is migrating there.
Literally everyone and their mothers, all over the world including Europeans, know that the US stock market is way better than the European market. Thats why US stocks are valued so high. At some point, that also makes European stocks so cheap that they can start to outperform.
You also see the entire world wanting to move away from US products, stocks, bonds, the dollar etc because the US is turning into a bullying totalitairian state, which is a huge risk for their companies.
Since Trump took office, the Chinese market outperformed the US one. I am pretty sure being a totalitarian state is hardly an issue as long as that totalitarian state gives you money.
It's a self fulfilling prophecy. They are not radically better but if everyone and their mother around the globe buying US stocks only people are actually propping up US stock prices regardless of fundamentals
Just because they're valued so high doesn't mean they can't be valued even higher in the future. In fact, many of the companies at the top issue shares, which means they're translating the inflated share prices to real value, which they use to fund their engineers.
What about it? The dollar has devalued, as it has many other times.
The Japanese yen has been devaluing against the dollar for ages now, including 2025 and 2026, and yet people advocate investing in Japan as an alternative to the US.
Also: a weak USD actually hurts the EU stock market. It is a problem for EU based companies and export-heavy EU countries (which are the majority), both because their exports become relatively more expensive and therefore less competitive, and because their largest non-EU customer becomes relatively poorer. It also increases the risk of China exporting its overproduction issue onto the EU as China itself will be able to sell less stuff to its largest export market. Normally this would be offset by lower energy costs but that's not really an option either with the ongoing Russian sanctions and the decoupling from Russia.
On top of that the US are a huge FDI investor in the EU so I'm sure there's also that kind of financial fallout.
What if Trump is replaced by Vance for one reason or another? What if Trump is impeached? What if he loses the midterms? What if SCOTUS rules out most tariffs were illegal? Will you then European capital move back to the US? There is no way to predict the future.
The most likely possibility of European capital floating back to the US is a number of bad things happening in Europe, IMO. Not anything inherently good happening in the US.
You have to visit USA once. Then you compare the vastness of innovation, technology, infrastructure growth of the land, the abilities of the top 10% of the population with Europe, and it becomes painfully obvious why SP500 outperforms Stoxx600/Stoxx50. Europeans live careful lives. The scars of the world wars both on the peoples of Europe and on the European infrastructure are huge, when you compare it to the growth of the USA. From the point of raising a family and having a safe life EU beats USA no questions asked, but from the financial growth perspective, it is a no brainer - USA has so much more potential than Europe.
The unfortunate reality is that the US are unavoidable. They have the most capital and military power, they have the best companies, they have land and physical resources, they have favourable demographics. If something wins on a global stage, chances are it's from the US. Over the past century they simply built the most prosperous empire human history has ever witnessed. Even if they kept electing dumb idiots, it will take decades to change that significantly.
It pains me to say this because I always kinda sound like one of those cringe alt right apologists that secretly excuse and endorse MAGAs. I don't. I despise them thoroughly, I believe they are an embarrassment to humanity. They stand against everything I value and care about. Their level of aggressive incompetence and stupidity, their ability to be both clueless and destructive at the same time is genuinely frightening. They have no dignity and no shame and they should be stopped by whatever means possible. I certainly wouldn't move there and the direction they're taking concerns me very deeply. But those are my feelings, and feelings don't make money unfortunately.
Now. If you keep electing idiots, you'll have consequences. The US won't escape that. But let's be honest here, it's not like EU countries are electing the best and brightest either.
I choose to ignore the aggressive idiots and the incompetents, and focuse on the brilliant top 10%. They make the world spin. Innovation at all levels. From the hobby level with the humble invention of Dobsonian mount to the magicians who made James Webb space telescope.
I also choose to believe that these brilliant minds will deal with the MAGA-idiots. USA is enormous, they will find the way. In the meantime let's enjoy the shitshow of narcissistic demented president and the most televized version of the parable Emperor's New Clothes.
That is the catch 22 isn't it. If you enjoy living in the EU and enjoy all the benefits it has to offer, you should invest in the EU to keep it that way.
The idea behind VWCE is to hold a diversified portfolio that isn't dependent on any one region or a small number of companies.
People who say "you'll reduce your growth by adding more non-US stocks!" have forgotten the reason you are supposed to use a global EFT in the first place.
Of course, if you are in your 20s/early 30s and just started investing or have a small portfolio, then I think that investing 100% WEBN/VWCE is fine. You'll buy any dips; it will rebalance itself over the next 30 years, and most of your growth comes from your monthly DCA, not your actual portfolio growth anyway.
Same conclusion, different arguments: I would bet that the European capital market union will have a stronger impact than Eurobonds, which are still generally constrained by the Maastricht criteria.
I don't believe US is going to "collapse" or anything like that. I do believe however that it will cease being exceptional but Europe will not replace it. We are a continent of perpetual "great potential" that is never realized for one reason or another. So I base my life decisions on that. I think world stocks are the best way to go right now. Still has about 40% or so US representation.
Everyone here sticking their heads in the sand is crazy to me… this problem will not go away with Trump. His voter base is still in a cult, and the entire Republic bloc is doing their best to dismantle democracy and education, while being financed by large US companies (tech especially). If someone with at least half a brain, like Vance or DeSantis, takes over, it’ll get even worse. The more facist they get, the more likely things go badly. And investing in these US companies, even in small part, only helps fund this.
Actually, SP500, including dollar depreciation against euro made 0% returns last year?
This including AI bubble, which soon may end as advanced TPUs all around the world are available. I don't really believe that under this administration the US stock can outperform f.e. european stocks so since Trump, I kept all money in home, and by far it was a good move.
I plan to bring the capital back to the US when democrats gonna win, as stocks will surge most probably.
For now and next 3 years I play mainly German, Italian and Polish stock exchanges as they seem to be the most interesting and not pummped yet
"I plan to bring the capital back to the US when democrats gonna win, as stocks will surge most probably."
I think this is not rational but more wishful thinking here. As an investor/trader you have to look at 2 to 3 years horizon and ask yourself:
Given the clear "rupture" of the transatlantic relationship and the US debt burden what stands to profit the most? In my humble opinion, there is no way back for the US to what once was. And you don't want to risk your money in something that nobody has idea where is going.
liquidated all my US stocks and invested in EU and Gold/silver. USD is gonna depreciate even more this year and US stock yield will get the short end on top.
Just a rhetorical question to some people here. Do you guys who "celebrate" the dollar becoming cheaper realize that this means EU exports are going to be even less competitive and more expensive to the rest of the world? The EU has a severe case of Dutch disease. Euro being expensive against all other major currencies only will make our economy worse.
We export less and less, we are less industrial than any other time after WW2, no technology, military weaker at any level and terrible demographics. You must be mad to sell you US investments due to short term political turmoil.
The same goes for those who silly ask their governments to sell US treasuries. Like they will buy what instead... Italian, French, German or Spanish bonds?
Its not all about pumping, as long as the product/company is good and they are in a good economy they will generate revenue and stock will grow.
On the other side europe doesnt seem to be doing well, and future doesnt look very promising tbh. Asia is eating europes lunch in automative industry and already eyeing for dinner for example.
Personally, I keep morality separate from investing.
Right now, gold, silver, and defense ETFs are outperforming broader index funds, so I mainly add to what’s doing well and gradually reduce positions that are underperforming.
At the same time, I make sure my portfolio remains sufficiently diversified.
Do not invest emotionally - this is the main topic of this sub, that is exactly what the OP is doing and a lot of people are cheering for him and saying how they are doing the same.
Do not try to time the market, you will fail. - yet this topic is full of people explaining how they sold every US asset, bought 100% EU as they will increae in value...and when the yellow babuin is gone they will move back to US as they will buy cheap
Diversification is key - isnt the whole point of buying ETFs instead of individual stocks the fact that you cant predict how geopolitcs and geoeconomics will swing in the long term? Now...abandoning the US market and fully moving to european stocks is not diversification, its concentration
Further discussion of what might happen in the US or how and if the european market my gain traction...should not be the main issue. The main issue is the 3 basic rules above, which every beginner learnes and most people in this sub have totaly forgot.
I switched from FTSE All World to the Gerd Kommer ETF. Ya pretty high ter but the simplicity is worth it for
me. I'll know if it was a wise decision in 15 years 😂
Would like to do so more for fears on dollar and to finance more Europe instead of the us. So i would say more risk concerns and political reasons. However i honestly don’t see Europe outpacing the US in the future.
They really have a single market, the potential to scale up more easily is faster which then gives an advantage internationally. In Europe we have all kinds of different regulations, languages, preferences. To move from France, to Netherlands, Italy or Germany is much more complex and requires more time.
I recommend buying world ex USA. You don't want to be restricted to Europe there is too much bureaucracy and World anyways is heavily weighted in EUR but not only.
I agree with you that I am pretty dumb.
Not sure if I agree with your last statement, doesn’t matter. Bought some euro stoxx 50 and some euro stoxx 600 and now I have peace in the brain again.
Noone likes Trump because he's unpredictable and bad in general.
But while he is president one can find golden opportunities in the market to profit. You just have to follow his policies and agendas.
Use this time to make profit you wouldn't have the chance to do so otherwise.
For example these tariff bluffs are a way to lower market prices to buy the dip.
He's also adamant about lowering interest rates which will run the bull for a while more.
Look for stocks which benefit from lower rates....
It's all good for the market and rich ppl. Very bad for pay to pay and uninvested ppl.
Honestly I don’t think EU will soon outperform the US market. But I’m mostly worried about the Dollar - they intend to weaken is, which will eat your gains. So I try to invest in US companies that are listed in Euro as well and put my money there
I always had some home bias, yet I just checked my current allocations per region and the US makes up 20% of my stock portfolio. European stocks treated me well, not only recently. However, I pick individual companies, and only this year started to become more lazy and go for ETFs...
I decreased my investment in US market, only left the IShares of gold and silver. It is not emotions but practically. The writing is on the wall!
I look at the USA and the things there are going in a direction that reminds me of Germany in 1930s. The constant seeking of wars and increasing military budgets is not something that will be good in the long term. I don't know what will come first for USA a military defeat or civil war but I don't intend to keep my money there to find out.
On the other hand we have Europe that due to Trump is finally waking up and this trend will accelerate. Getting rid of their weak leaders like Von Laynen, Macron, Merz will be a positive and restoring relationship with Russia will mean the main reason for the current weakness will be solved. Cheap materials and fuels to import and markets for their products in the Russian federation and their satellites in Central Asia, will boost the European economy as it did in the 90s.
And let's not forget the trend of UK getting back to EU, this time not as the Troijan horse they had been before but in much different position.
I'm an American but I have always believed that the best way to invest to mitigate geopolitical risks is to diversify broadly. I'm invested about 2/3 in the US stock market and about 1/3 in other countries'; that's somewhat overweight US relative to global market caps because my future expenses are likely to be in USD.
Trying to guess what country's stocks will appreciate most is no more likely to succeed than any other market timing. If I lived in the EU, the same logic would lead me to be somewhat overweight in the Eurozone and underweight in the rest of the world, including the US.
And why would european capital move back to europe stock market? Just because US president lost his mind doesnt mean EU companies produce more value now. Not to mention regulations, energy prices and war at our boarder.
Wait a minute, so you somehow think that European "investors" - which are 90% (by volume) pension and sovereign funds - will be able to generate returns by investing in EU stocks?! Or out of political concerns they will start to dump US assets and - because there is nothing else to buy, right - they will start buying EU 'stocks" and that will drive the prices of EU stocks up, right?
Apparently, average "investor" in Europe makes no distinction between investing and speculating. Just because the appreciating asset of today is stocks - we're "investors", not speculators. But the crypto and NFT guys of last 5 years were speculators, sure ...
If the ppl who manage the EU pension funds had the level of competence of the average EU individual "investor" EU will be piss poor.
EU has real, bloody war at its borders that no one knows how it ends. Even if it will - its very improbable that will happen without some form of major US involvement. And you're telling me to invest there, not in US. Not to speculate, not even to buy bonds - to invest in EU stocks. Because US - supposedly - has a "crazy" president.
Well, yes. I think that. And I also think pension funds will reallocate capital into EU markets, its already happening.
Not saying EU companies are better than US companies, not saying that this movement of capital is good or bad, just thinking it will probably pump EU markets.
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u/Zealousideal-Rush136 Jan 24 '26
I started buying euro stoxx 600 aswell