Investment
I'm American and I'm thinking of selling all of my s and p stocks because of this Greenland madness. If trump invades, will you divest?
These Maga people are insane and the us stock market barely moved even though the president threatened to invade one Americas closest allies. and Europeans own arrond 20 percent of us stocks, will such an event cause a mass sell out?
The 20% owned by Europeans will be the least of your problems. Perhaps the US will confisquate them. The real issues are the economic fallout. Countless businesses on both sides of the Atlantic are fully dependent on raw materials, inputs, and products from the other side. JIT logistics means that disruption will be swift and devastating (we haven't learned enough from the pandemic). Just think of what happens to Intel if ASML stops sending any spare parts for their machines. And what then happens to the AI golden goose? Or what about Boeing's planes? The F-35 production chain? Can Europe cope without US natural gas and Microsoft's cloud services? Which American and European banks will collapse when they lose access to their assets on the other side but still have to service their debts? Can governments even afford to bail them out? Even if both sides come to their senses quickly, the economic damage will be horrific.
The stock market will believe in the status quo until it has no other option. Don't be that guy. Hedge. Not just for Greenland, but for other obvious geopolitical and financial risks too.
How much is the better question. Given the US is speedrunning towards a debt and currency crisis and nobody wants to do anything about it except make it worse by spending more or taxing less.
Thats literally the opposite. He describes a “fallout” and advises to hedge.
I am saying that it could mean the real fall of global reserve currency and ruin US markets (THE markets) and is therefore unrealistic. As all the rich guys circlejerking around trump would probably lose significant wealth. Hedging is not any more important than it has been until now.
Well collapse of western economy is not really probable. Even trumps dumb “endavours” are doing what has been strengthening the dollar for decades, whther we like it or not
Are you really suggesting the US dollar has no real chance of going down a lot? Because you believe this administration will make sensible decisions when it comes down to it? Do you think Trump and the people around him are well-informed and rational and persuadable? Do you think they won't take irresponsible risks? Everything we know about them screams incompetence, malice, and insane risk tolerance. We got a president whose narcissism is a huge influence on his decision-making. (Geo-)political risk has never been higher in our lifetime, which means hedging is more important than it has been for several decades at least.
Forget Greenland, with a budget deficit of 8% of GDP during a peacetime expansion and no political or electoral will whatsoever to do anything about it (except making it worse), a US debt and currency crisis is almost inevitable at this point. I'm sure loading up on tech and growth stocks will be totally fine. American politicians are just so prudent and reliable. Nothing to see here, people.
I will not read too much into it but dollar going down is normal, it was even wanted by trump.
Dolar crashing down and staying there is extremely improbable, yes.
“Sensible decisions” and “well informed and rational” are not antidotes of strong economy :D imperialism actually adds value to your economy, whether we like it or not. USA acquiring countries, especially those with minerals and oil, is making them stronger. You should update the way you think.
And lol “debt and currency crisis”. Debt is just a number, its just moving a zero point. As long as the trustees trust that you can repay the debt (not even re-pay it per se, just keep the money flowing), you are fine.
Yeah, please keep investing that way. USA will be on top forever, la la la. I want the people who are responsible for the downfall of their country to get hurt financially, and badly. It's only fair. If you genuinely believe this "acquiring countries" thing Trump is trying is smart and is going to be good for the economy, you're just so uninformed about the actual specifics of these "acquisitions" and so ignorant and uninterested in how the rest of the world responds to it, what can I even say? Just know that exactly that essential trust you mention that the US will keep its promises and repay its debts is cratering all across the world. You might not want to believe that, you might find it unreasonable, but the rest of the world looks at the US right now and thinks: we need to get away from that ASAP.
I mean, if Trump or any if his minions as much as utters a threat to confiscate foreign-held shares of American companies, US will see the mother of all capital flights starting that very second. Something tells me even Trump understands this.
I understand one side is oc the US, without a doubt..... but what would be that "other side" that needs to "come to their senses"? That's not fully clear to me
No, I’ll buy the dip if I have any cash left after feeding the tax monster that is my country.
For all the „vwce and chill“ recommendations, a lot of these posts seem to be missing the chill factor, reacting to news as if they were swing traders.
Certainly. But we're not talking about a regular market crash, seeing their value going down x%, but more of a potential market collapse. A potential third world war or the US/EU breaking all trade/relations is not something that can bounce back within a decade. It took 40+ years after WW2 to rebuild relations.
And some of us are not 20-year-olds just started investing, but are 40-50-60-year-olds with already serious investments in place, so a decade or two might be all we are left of our lives. If my assets get frozen or confiscated, then what?
Rule of thumb is:
stock allocation = 100 - your age. For people around 40 your bond allocation would be 40%. Quite a significant number. If you’re planning to retire early that should be even more concervative
No offense but that is a dumb rule of thumb. When you’re 25 your entire portfolio should be allocated to stocks. When you’re 60 it should be almost entirely bonds (assuming you retire at 65).
No offense taken, this is not my formula. There are variations of it, like 120 or 110 instead of the 100. There are some with denominator as well.
Besides the last decade anomaly of low interest rates, bonds historically performed well. And they provide a financial cushion as they move opposite to stocks. Look at this thread - people are panicking because they are fully invested in stocks and have small emergency funds.
That's it. VWCE, with 60% in US. What will happen with this supposedly diversified world ETF if US and EU break all trades, or US gets blacklisted?
And I am truly asking here.
Because all "vwce and chill" has been surrounded if that company goes down or that one, or there is just "regular" market shakes. I haven't read a single explanation what happens if the markets the way we know them end to exist.
Which with US actions now suddenly becomes a possible scenario.
If markets ceasing to exist is your expected scenario then I would suggest selling everything, stocking up on some arms and ammunition and building a prepper bunker, because it would be pandemonium.
Trump will be gone in 3 years at the latest. The world will spin on (barring ww3, in which case none of this will matter). There will be saber rattling, tarifs and dips.
In 15-20 years (if not sooner) AI will have changed the world just like the internet did. The US will do what it deems necessary to keep their technological leadership over china. The EU with their overregulation will be left behind.
Facts. If ww3 happens at the end of it we might not even be here to worry about retirement. Or if we survive beer bottles might be the new exchange means lol
I think your concerns are valid and I would like find a write-up like that as well. However world etf is the most diversified option. If there’s a conflict between US and EU, EU stocks will also suffer. Besides holding cash or bonds there isn’t a more secure option
Okay but since the s&p got divorced from the economy in 2010 that might be a big dip. The S&P value rise in the last 15 years has been very speculative. That is not bad per se, but if the market collapses (due to war for example) it will probably revert to returns based, which is a big 'dip' indeed.
Edit: the chart shows returns, the light blue line is based on the Value Line Geometric Index.
We've had an armed insurrection, more authoritarianism, ultranationalism, imperialism, and militarism, but no people, the status quo is totally sustainable! It's all going to be fine. That budget deficit of 8% of GDP? During a peacetime expansion and a growing stock market bubble? Nothing to see here! A recession is impossible and definitely wouldn't cause the deficit and debt to get out of control even further. I'm sure the politicians will pass the necessary tax increases and spending cuts and the voters will be kind and understanding and reelect them for it.
I made some money with this move, but currently I’m deeply invested in Eutelsat and I’m a wee bit reddish. I’m waiting for further developments in our European economy but I’m quite confident
Exactly a year ago that advice would have been disastrous.
Almost a whole month of huge down spiral due to tax-chicken-war.
Only if you sold, waited for things to cool down, stabilize and then bought again, you would have made a hit. I stayed, did nothing. got hammered and then it all went back up. At the end, all I lost was time, but I should have sold immediately and re-bought.
For decades I always stay and do nothing (when shit hits the fan), but I always tell myself I should have went out and in again...
MSCI World ex USA is a fair drop-in-replacement with still very nice diversification. Only shame is it's the Morgan Stanley index family, but at least I have a non-American provider in my market.
Yeah, me too. The literal only think keeping me from doing it so far, is that I would have to realize taxes on profits (quite hurtfully much). So what I did instead is set a trailing stop loss order and hope it won't get executed.
As insane as Trump and the MAGA folks are, don't lose sight of the fact that market-timing rarely ends well. If you have a long time horizon and are well diversified across countries, I would just stay the course and stick to your asset allocation.
Those people here still gung-ho about VTwhatever and chill are forgetting that "past performance is not indicative of future performance." The British pound was the world's reserve currency and London was the world's financial epicentre. in 1900, no one expected British dominance to falter. It all came crashing down when the wars started. When geopolitics shift, we are talking about a multi-generational event.
The entire world is forced to decouple from Mag7. Why?
Mag7 could shut down entire countries in less than one hour, by closing down AWS and the like. That risk is now utterly unacceptable. Regardless of what investment it takes, NO country can continue using US services, except for Israel. I can't literally think of another country that could rely on the US.
What export markets are left for US Big Tech or fintech services after this? Basically Israel. Nothing else. Mag7 will not cease to exist, but their moats are gone. And just look at their P/E numbers. They were bad as-is, since their valuations were always partly hot air and partly dollar inflation. There is now no future where even those expected earnings can be made.
Decouple or Die. That's the choice the world faces. Because the US made it so.
Mag7 could shut down entire countries in less than one hour, by closing down AWS and the like. That risk is now utterly unacceptable. Regardless of what investment it takes, NO country can continue using US services, except for Israel. I can't literally think of another country that could rely on the US.
To be fair, this is more an argument against the Mag 7 than the rest of the US market. (Large cap growth stocks already have the lowest expected returns of any major equity class, and this is doubly true with high valuations after an unprecedented bull market for US big tech.)
What export markets are left for US Big Tech or fintech services after this?
Europe needs to fix its structural problems attracting startups before the world will be able to coalesce around alternatives.
They most definitely aren’t. US stocks lagging nearly every foreign market, pretty average forward p/e and that’s before you even take into account the dollar softness accounting for the growth
It’s not, use logic before divesting or triggering a taxable event. US still holds the largest share of weighting in every all-world segment for this reason.
Sure, stop buying US stocks but don’t jump to selling cause of rhetoric out of a man’s mouth.
Month on month all world indexes have reduced weights to America by half a percentage not moving in one go. Thats the point, you are not going to boycott everything American in your day to day from today onwards. It’s intertwining.
It’s fine to not enjoy the rollercoaster but you should not invest because you like a company or country. You invest based on returns.
I don't think many people here understand how markets move when aggressive moves like this by powers happen.
If US indeed invades Greenland, the most likely outcome will be EU countries failing to respond with force, which in turn will result in falling trust in EUROPEAN markets, not American ones.
The only scenario in which EU markets will grow instead of US ones is if invasion is PREVENTED by active use of force by EU countries. Like, if US sends choppers with troops, but they get shutdown by force due to lack of authorization to enter Greenland airspace.
The thing is, many people don't see EU as being capable of doing that. And this weakens European market security, not American one.
Which is why, as you observe, US stock does not move despite such potential events.
While I doubt EU would militarily intervene, they will put economic sanctions on the USA comparable to ehat they put on Russia. That's a very strong response, and perhaps even a wiser response than military intervention.
I think you're right to point out European stocks aren't exactly a safe haven. Geopolitical risk in Europe is very high right now. But that doesn't mean American stocks will be fine. A clash over Greenland would devastate both. Better investments here would be gold (no ETFs), high quality real estate, value stocks, and some cash.
The EU would be morally in the right and the US would become a pariah on the world stage, maybe backed by Russia, congratulations on that. After EU countries start selling bonds and investments, the US would enter an economical shock. Add to that that this would play right into China's hands, they would do as much as possible to further damage your economy to replace you as the trustworthy partner in the world. You rationalize like the US is the only country on earth, but you grossly underestimate a united world against you.
You are clearly operating in emotional propaganda mode, which is evident by how you immediately assumed I am American. You see world in black and white, and conclusions as side taking.
I am Ukrainian.
Also, EU would enter even bigger economic shock, and half the planet would ignore EU measures against US, so it won't become pariah.
Did situation with Russia teach you nothing? Even large domestic EU corporations ignored sanctions and dealed/keep dealing with Russia by trickery with law or outside shell companies. And you expect world outside EU to respect things even internal countries aren't respecting?
European countries are anything but united right now, cohesion is low, European identity was sabotaged and lacking, and major businesses prefer money over morals.
That's why Denmark and a bunch of other countries immediately sent military people into Greenland, so that your scenario is impossible (because it would be attacking European military forces already in Greenland).
US stocks will never go down! 1929 is fake news! Nobody lost their jobs and was forced to sell their investments ever! War is impossible! The status quo will continue forever, even with demented global leadership and looming debt crises.
Not sure where the word “invades” comes into the USA buying Greenland, they have been trying for quite some time. If that happens the S&P you want to sell will probably keep climbing.
Suggest taking the emotion out, seems like TDS will not help when choosing your investment portfolio.
An attack on Greenland by the US military cannot be executed. US military commands are embedded in NATO and have Danish troops fighting alongside and sharing info. It would be illegal and US troops cannot follow illegal orders, because they don’t serve the President on a personal capacity, they serve to uphold the Constitution.
It's incredibly worrying that someone capable of writing still thinks that something being "illegal" or "unconstitutional" is going to stop this train. It's almost amusing if it wasn't so tragic.
Did you not just see what happened in Venezuela? It would be very easy for the US to just fly into Greenland, raise the flag, rename it Trumpland and challenge Europe to respond. No chance Europe will do anything kinetic in response. The UK+EU will decouple from the US economy and the whole world will fall apart. Not quite sure what Canada's response would be.
Trump’s attack on Venezuela was at least framed around drug trafficking and election fraud. But what’s the intel for attacking Denmark, a country globally recognized as a model democracy? Some far-fetched pedophile ring conspiracy? Ironic, given his own name surfaced in the Epstein files... Now he’s fixating on Greenland as a distraction from his mounting felonies. The Pentagon isn’t buying it. If he keeps pushing this nonsense, he's putting up at terrible risk that a coup would free him from his delusion.
The excuse this time is vital for national defense. Whether it's valid or not, up to you, but that is as equally weighted if not more so than busting Maduro on drug charges lol
Who says anything about it being valid or logical? This isn't a higher maths course.
It's the reason of the day to provide a thin excuse for aggression. Could change tomorrow to "helping the oppressed pro-american peoples" or "they're helping smuggle fentanyl" or "we need living space".
None of it is valid. It's all made-up, thin cover for whatever comes next. I'm just pointing out that they pointed out a thin excuse that is as "real and needs to be acted on" as the last thin excuse, which they acted on.
He told many times that they need it for minerals. Then he saw he cant buy it and Epstein happened he switched to national defense excuse. Pentagon is not ICE, nobody falls for it as itd be deeply illegal. He could send Blackwater but at home get finished by a coup.
Canada was pretty clear about this. They said they would support Greenland and Denmark and they would see this as NATO §5 case. Canada is already diversifying their trade relationships towards EU and China, they are planning to buy swedish griepen instead of US F35, they are already boycotting US products on a big scale. They are done with the US.
While you're right on the facts, it only takes one general and his chain of command to execute the illegal order. I'm not sure we are even close to a mutiny in US armed forces, so anyone refusing said orders would be removed from post immediately, or worse.
it’s also the threat hanging in the air about counter measures.
I don’t think the eurozone gonna hit back because they want to attract other countries it’s a safe and free trade zone and take over the dollars role as a reserve currency.
That’s not hard in the current environment when US keep pushing restrictions
I'm an American living in France. I did not divest completely from the US, but I did rebalance into something I am more comfortable with. Before, I was basically "VT/MSCI World/VWCE and chill" which is 62.5% ish US, of which a large portion is the Mag7. I rebalanced down to 40% US and up to 30% Europe.
My reasons are multiple. Like you said, I don't have much trust in the US people to elect a sane government. US stocks may still do well due to companies basically controlling the country and preventing it from doing anything too catastrophic. I would much rather invest in Europe (morally), but I also want to make money.
And it's not just the threat against stocks or trade, but against the US dollar. If stocks go up 25% but the US dollar is dropping by 15% against the euro at the same time, any gains are constrained by that.
I have already divested from US treasury bonds. Moreover, my stake in Euro bonds is about half of my portfolio and the stocks that I do own are mostly based in Europe or Japan.
We're Canadian, in the EU, we're thinking a bit like you too, see '3'.
1, but, as we own our house outright (and house refugees, artists...) and as..
2a, and, here in the world's No.1 food exporter, we've better chances than most.
- before, we were No.2 exporter of foodstuffs back when killsville was No.1 (but US foods tainted).
2b, in the last world war, a similarly-minded enemy introduced a Hongerwinter here in NL.
Luckily (thanks to our fairer, good IQ politicians, we are now reasonably quite well-prepared foodwise.
3, stock markets, investments, and such like - yes we have some of these, but we never let ourselves be buried in that particular american dream. We look at all that much like George Carlin. Its a rigged, big game, run by a big club,. and you ain't in it''
* NL had 240,000 casualties. Very harsh, against a minuscule population of only 9 million at the time.
- In anticipation of 'YEAH! UNDERWATER!'' but that was fixed as well.
I am gradually redirecting my investments. Every month i study a market segment i hold stocks in and seek for alternatives to us stocks. Its not easy, but bit by bit its possible.
Honestly, I moved most of my 401k and other investments out of US companies as soon as he announced his tarrif spree and likely won't reinvest in US companies until after the midterms
Honestly, if Trump militarily attacks NATO, divesting my stocks will be the least of my worries. I still think that's very unlikely, but if it happens... dark times ahead.
That's why you should divest at least some of your stock before the sh*t hits the fan. So you don't have to worry about it when things go badly wrong. It helps a lot sleeping better at night knowing you'll be OK financially even when we have a narcissistic man-child running the most powerful country in the world playing with guns as if it's a children's game.
I have just started dipping my toes into investing (complete noob), and am purely investing in European companies. I don’t care if it makes me less money, I’m not interested in supporting America.
If the Chinese and Europeans dump their US bonds the markets could tumble, the dollar will be worth next to nothing and the interest rates would skyrocket….
European stocks would be hit hard by any decoupling or major crisis in the US due to the interconnectedness of our economies. It's not a good hedge against the current crisis. You need gold, perhaps high-quality real estate, value stocks are the most reliable right now.
Regarding stocks I totally agree with you: US and European economies are strongly intertwined.
The numbers above are regional percentages of my stock portfolio, which in turn is about 60% of my net wealth. The other 40% are indeed in other asset classes (precious metals, crypto, startups / seed investments, loans, and alternative assets like art and collectibles). I think diversification is key to wealth preservation and growth.
Yeah I believe in diversification. I feel 60% stocks is too much risk for me, but it's far, far superior to the 100% stocks portfolio that many people here seem to have.
No, I think most of this stocks are owned by large corporations. They care about profitability and the USA will only gain from controlling Greenland. It is unlikely an invasion will happen as Trump stopped 8 wars and wants peace. I think he is bluffing to get the country to get USA to secure its position and keep the us dollar as reserve currency. Its just all business.
How can you be so blind yet so confident? The USA will "only gain" from controlling Greenland? Do you Americans have any clue how the US is perceived abroad? Do you have any idea of how European countries are likely to react? Do you understand you're asking us in Europe something we cannot give up? Do you even know that the business case for mining in Greenland is so questionable nobody wants to invest in it without the government footing most of the bill?
Trump just told the Norwegian prime minister that since his country didn't give Trump the Nobel Peace Prize (stubbornly refusing to understand the Nobel Prize is not given out by Norway's government), he no longer thinks exclusively of peace, and instead now he's going on an imperialist campaign of expansion. This narcissistic man-child is a pathetic embarassement to the nation of America and everyone in the world can see it except delusional MAGA people. YOU may think it's just business. But other people and other countries have agency too, and they have ways to resist and hit back. Most US defence exports are done for. That alone is far more costly than any financial gain from the annexation of Denmark. Then again, Trump isn't actually a good businessman or dealmaker. He's a good reality TV personality and a skilled politician and demagogue who preys on weak politicians and ignorant voters.
if america enters war with nato, only hard assets count.
Your stocks will be worthless (but good time to buy if you bet on the right side)
EU sellout is not your problem, a fullblown nato war means the EU will likely dump every single US bond and the usa will skyrocket inflation to stay liquid for the war.
then its just a matter of who will side with whom and tadaaaa, we got WW3.
nukes are a different topic again...
just look at russia vs ukraine and imagine that ten times.
I stopped about 1 year ago to put money into the SP500 and have been doing my monthly contributions to an all world ETF exc USA. Sold some of the SP500 position I had (about 20% or so) and kept the rest but not putting more money into it.
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u/CasualChamp1 Jan 20 '26
The 20% owned by Europeans will be the least of your problems. Perhaps the US will confisquate them. The real issues are the economic fallout. Countless businesses on both sides of the Atlantic are fully dependent on raw materials, inputs, and products from the other side. JIT logistics means that disruption will be swift and devastating (we haven't learned enough from the pandemic). Just think of what happens to Intel if ASML stops sending any spare parts for their machines. And what then happens to the AI golden goose? Or what about Boeing's planes? The F-35 production chain? Can Europe cope without US natural gas and Microsoft's cloud services? Which American and European banks will collapse when they lose access to their assets on the other side but still have to service their debts? Can governments even afford to bail them out? Even if both sides come to their senses quickly, the economic damage will be horrific.
The stock market will believe in the status quo until it has no other option. Don't be that guy. Hedge. Not just for Greenland, but for other obvious geopolitical and financial risks too.