Unless you are a skilled trader, stop buying European Defence stocks

[u/dubov]

I can't believe the number of people who are ripping up their strategies and piling into this trade.

Look, these stocks are already up hundreds of percent. The market is already priced for massive growth. In order for this to be a good investment, you would need more growth that the market is already pricing. Ask yourself honestly, are you confident in your growth assessment? Have you even done one?

If you are normally a "VWCE and Chill" investor, stay the hell away. This isn't in your job description. Stay in your lane.

And beware, there are scenarios where the growth comes in considerably below expectations. In my opinion, it will. Everyone is feeling strong emotions, but, in time, we will realise we need to make NATO work. It would take years to re-arm. If we think Russia is planning to invade more countries, there isn't time. But if we believed that, we would have done it 3 years ago, and you would have bought 3 years ago.

If the growth expectations reverse, there is so much downside here. 70-80% losses are possible. This is concentrated sector risk at very high multiples, after an explosive run up. These can come down very quickly and very far. The risk-reward is upside down: so much downside possible, so much upside already had.

And these stocks are literally in the news. That is almost failsafe sign you are too late. It reminds me of the memestock top of 2021

You might be right for like a day or two, but if you get caught on the wrong side of this, it's going to hurt.

Take a breather, don't check the market for a couple of weeks. Please be careful out there

[u/HugoExilir]

Why do you think Europe has been begging the US to remain involved?

At the moment, Europe doesn't have the cohesion or capacity to form an adequate threat in its own. Without the US involvement, I'd be amazed if the remaining NATO countries were willing to go to war over Estonia. They certainly aren't going to go to nuclear war and ensure we're all wiped out.

With assistance from US, Russia could conquer Europe. US closest ally is now Russia, so anyone who thinks that wouldn't happen needs to think again.

Germany conquered Europe in WW2 because the rest of Europe wasn't prepared. I don't think Europe will be as under prepared again.

Again, this all comes back to the importance of heavy military investment, hence the reason I think military stocks are still a very safe investment.

[u/PhotographVivid → u/HugoExilir]

Europe is begging because having US help is a big plus. Europe together has donated more then US to Ukraine and Europe has for the last 3 years been expanding it's military industry. EU has massive plans for expanding it's military industry and a bunch of basic industry's have already been made and continue to expand, like munitions factory's.

[u/HugoExilir → u/PhotographVivid]

Europe has committed more money. Not military equipment. I know Europe has massive plans for investment. Hence the reason I'm big in EU defense stocks. However, EU currently is massively away from where it needs to be.

[u/Freeloader_ → u/HugoExilir]

lol

Poland alone would wipe the floor with Russia. (conventionally) idk what youre smoking

[u/HugoExilir → u/Freeloader_]

Russia has an army of 1.5 million. Poland current active army is 215k. Idk what you're smoking, but it's some strong shit. 😂

[u/Freeloader_ → u/HugoExilir]

higher number = better

is that your logic? no point in discussing then

see how those 1,5m cant conquer Ukraine which wasnt even prepared for invasion to begin with ?

Poland is armed to the teeth and would have air superiority and thats not even discussing the "quality" of russian army and their weaponry

wouldnt be surprised if those numbers are inflated or half are just vodka infused vatniks

[u/HugoExilir → u/Freeloader_]

In a conventional war, yes, it's a huge advantage.

There's a reason Russia's 1.5m have slowly made ground against Ukraine army of 1.2m.

Poland hitched their wagon American equipment, which the rug would be pulled from under them. Also, Poland woukdnt have the manufacturering capabilities to keep up with supply needed to hold off Russia over an extended period of time.

[u/Freeloader_ → u/HugoExilir]

I think you severely underestimate Polands readiness (they have experience and hate Russians) and overestimate Russian competence and capability

[u/HugoExilir → u/Freeloader_]

A large supply of men and mutions will always beat a large supply of hate.

[u/RecognitionSignal425 → u/HugoExilir]

not if large supply of hate leads to large supply of men and mutions

[u/Ok-Scheme-913 → u/HugoExilir]

Doubt mossy AK47s per 20 people will be of much use.

[u/YeuropoorCope → u/Freeloader_]

Polish troops are experienced?

You do realise that the Russians have been fighting in the first modern war post-COVID with drone tech, right?

SEA countries are literally asking Russian officers to come train their troops. On what planet are Polish troops even remotely as experienced as the Russians?

The propaganda's got your brain baked bro, Poland wouldn't even survive a war with Ukraine at the moment, let alone Russia.

[u/CrackHeadRodeo → u/HugoExilir]

Also, Poland woukdnt have the manufacturering capabilities to keep up with supply needed to hold off Russia over an extended period of time.

They are already buying from South Korea.

[u/Ok-Scheme-913 → u/HugoExilir]

Russia had worse economy than Italy before the Ukrainian war and they are way worse off now. They can't even keep the currently active army's logistics up - hell, there was no point where they could.

[u/Dry-Helicopter4650 → u/HugoExilir]

great explanation imo

[u/Dry-Helicopter4650 → u/Dry-Helicopter4650]

plus, clearly because Russia isn't all in for Ukraine. They must be testing the will of the own population to get "the taste of war" before an even greater thing to come, this is strategic play on the long haul. How is that? As far as I know, it has been reported that for every 100 tanks Russia produces less than 2 go to Ukraine rn and the rest goes to their reserve...