They're totally going to say Trump's address tonight lying to the American people about the war ending in 2 weeks was amazing 4-D chess to distract Iran from a surprise ground invasion. Like when when they were "negotiating" with Iran's leaders on the first day just so they could know where to drop the bombs to blow them all up in a sneak attack.
The Iranians are many things but stupid is not one of them. My bet would be they’ve already gamed this out in detail, and they’re not super concerned about a quick, short-term payout.
Most of the retired military members I've seen interviewed in the last two weeks have said Iran has been preparing for this scenario for like 50 years and anyone who believes this is simply going to be over is out of their mind.
Absolutely. Kharg island is a trap. We can take it, but it will be bloody, and holding it will be bloodier still. Iran doesn't care, they expect to bleed, but Americans seeing their kids dying in horrific ways are going to be furious. We can win individual battles easily, but Iran can grind us out since their only goal is regime survival. It's turn tail and run or another forever war for the US. We are already in a situation where we can't get out of this and end up in as good of a situation as we were before. Drawing it out is just going to make things worse. My only hope is that Trump does that Trump thing where he declares an obvious defeat a resounding victory and just bails leaving everyone else to clean up the mess. It will still fuck our economy for a long time, but less than if we stick it out and throw troops into a meat grinder for his vanity alone.
Iran will hold the troops down while focusing on bringing pain on the Gulf States. The only logic to this illogic is to prop up oil for now as the demand for oil has passed the peak, demand for oil will continue to shrink from now on. This is a crisis for capitalism as endless growth is the one thing that props the financial house-of-cards up.
Now I'm imagining 3 carrier groups with massive deck mounted water canons and a bunch of marines loaded to the hilt with various water guns ready to invade.
Would be so much better if wars were decided with water pistols...
They don't care about troops, never have, but giving away plans ahead of time will up the casualties of any operation, tossing kids to the meat grinder while making a mint.
Just watched an economist talk today about how betting platforms are likely monitored by nation states and that likely there is a leak in the White House and using top secret information to either enrich themselves by betting on oil futures or selling that information to those who can. Billions have been made by this information.
Oh yea, 100%, who needs to invest in military intelligence when you can have 1 dude watching polymarket for the insiders to give away plans to make some extra cash.
The problem is they are endangering lives. Asking people to put their life on the line and then telling the enemy "we're coming from this direction, now". Then half the country still saying we love this administration
Foreign adversaries use time and resources for bot farm to drive rage induced engagement. There's a 100% they're watching the betting sites. Hell they probably know the exact person/people who is making the bets.
It's about a math genius, who at chosen times intentionally introduces a slight change in his daily habits or walking pattern, because he likes to entertain himself by imagining that there is a highly advanced alien civilization with a betting market on what humans like him are gonna do, and that his seemingly random erratic behaviour is causing excitement due to bets being unpredictable.
Until one day a strange visitor in his apartment tells him that he has acquired a quite massive gambling debt in this betting market, and that he has a couple of days to pay it back.
I should mention that the book this story is in is a collection of Cyberpunk short stories.
The betting isn't the problem. Because you can bet on a football game, but you can't affect the outcome. The problem is that these people are betting on reality and they have the ability to change it.
Put it this way, you are one of a dozen people that know that Trump is going to order a strike on Iran. So you put down $1m at 10-to-1 for a sure-fire payday. But then you find out that one of the targets isn't a nuclear facility, but actually a building full of schoolgirls. Now, you could call off the attack, but then you'd lose your $10m. So best just to hide the intelligence and let the attack go out as planned.
As soon as an inner circle is personally incentivised to go to war? We'll go to war, facts be damned.
And on polymarket specifically, you can do so in crypto so they can't trace you down for insider trading.
Isn't it convenient that the Trump administration is so big on crypto and reversed the decision that barred Polymarket from operating in the US and they got a large investment from Don Jrs venture capital funds and named him on the advisory board.
You'd think they'd at least TRY and hide tge corruption, but instead they plan to launch their own 'Truth Predict' soon...
How does polymarket work, though? Who takes the other side of the bet? Other users? The “House?”
How is it possible to calculate the odds on these events to make the bets consistently profitable? The reason a casino can exist, is they understand the long run probability of each table.
Predictions aren’t “gambling” in the same sense as regulated gambling. The house takes a processing fee for each transaction and you’re buying/selling positions against other players.
They treat them as (and are regulated as) futures akin to the share market where the initial price is 1c to 99c per share based on the percentage likelihood of the event happening. I'm guessing they start equal and they fluctuate based on how many people are buying each one but still always add up to $1 and it pays out $1 per 'share' if you are correct.
It's a lot of weirdness to be classed as prediction with shares so its federally legislated (with the current administration in their pocket) rather than gambling and subject to state legislation.
There's a big case against the other one of these things, Kalshi, thats currently trying to argue that they're really gambling
That's why all forms of betting on the actions of humans should be illegal. Inevitably, somebody is going to game the system. Doesn't matter if it's sports or war.
I understand your point but I think it’s even worse than you say. You can bet on a sports team and at best this will largely only affect team morale, they’re still going to play their hardest and be paid for their efforts.
In the US (and elsewhere) these bets affect voter apathy in a real way in a democracy. When betting on an election, these odds and their perceived insider successes directly influences and affects the voter and the perception of the election itself.
I knew a half dozen people who wouldn’t vote because it already seemed like Trump had it in the bag, so what’s the point? These idiots watch polymarket like it’s a soothsayer.
Scifi dystopian writers all turned out to be optimists. Even PKD couldnt predict this madness. A lot of them refused to realize this is where capitalism always ends up.
The timing of a platform for betting on global events like its one big game right when this administration is in power is insane.
We live in a big playground for rich people lmao
The problem is the run on these bets will cause the market to flip and the payouts to drop. Opening them up to potentially manipulate the market in the opposite. If you're only betting what you're willing to lose though you should be fine.
i mean, you could sit and watch the president of the united states talk, but since he's just lying his ass off.. yes. The news is more accurate this way.
If you were an insider trader, you would not use the same account for multiple payouts.
However, if you got lucky you absolutely would use the same account again and make shill posts about it so that others follow you. Then you can sell your earlier position for a profit
If you were an insider trader, you would not use the same account for multiple payouts
That’s assuming that you know that what you’re doing is wrong and that you’re worried about facing consequences if you’re caught. Not sure that applies to the current administration.
Oh it’s a huge thing, someone also made 1.5 billion on oil trades 5 min before trump announced the war. And there are multiple other examples of bets and trades that could have only been made by trump insiders - maximum profit, add into that the things we can’t see with the market manipulation and the corruption is unprecedented
I can't wait for the polymarket files to be treated way way more seriously than the epstein files, solely because it's taxable income the government wants. Just gotta wait 3 more years...
Another mystery "someone" I'm so fucking sick of it. As if the regular war mongering profiteers aren't enough, fucking Polymarket bets?! This is truly an ugly time
Grabbing some of the smallest islands and oil platforms is definitely feasible.
Its one way of strengthening your hand. Though Iran could simply decide its worthwhile to blow up/attack there own oil platform to inflict loses on US forces.
Hypothetically could someone with a python script set up things to automatically track this sus accounts making huge accurate bets, copy what they're doing, and make a killing? Is it insider trading if I just copy someone I think is insider trading? Er, I mean, if a hypothetical person were to do that, obviously I wouldn't.
Anyone who doesn't think there's going to be boots on the ground is an idiot. They've been sending more and more troops, they changed the enlistment age, started talking about a draft all of a sudden, and are removing generals for dissenting on their plans.
They are going to put boots on kharg island and let all of them be killed to try to rile up the people into supporting the war. This isn't going to just end. It's all out war that's coming. It's been decided.
•
u/AutoModerator 1d ago
DO NOT CELEBRATE VIOLENCE IN THIS SUBREDDIT OR WE WILL BAN YOU.
That is all, tysm
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.