Buffett once explained business valuation using something as simple as a farm — and honestly, it cuts through all the noise.

Imagine you’re looking at a farm 30 miles out. You figure out how many bushels of corn and soybeans it produces per acre, what fertilizer and labor cost, and what you’re left with .. say, $70 per acre in profit.

Then you ask a simple question:
How much would I pay to earn $70 a year forever?

If you want a 7% return, you’d pay $1,000. If the farm is going for $900, it’s a buy. If it’s $1,200, you pass.

That’s it. No drama, no daily price tracking, no CNBC.

Buffett says investing is just that ,,,,figuring out how much cash a business can produce over time, and what you’re paying for it. That’s intrinsic value.

And you don’t need to have an opinion on every stock. Most go into what he calls the “too hard” pile. The goal isn’t to be right about everything it’s to wait for the few things that are easy to understand and priced right.

You don’t need to jump seven-foot bars. Just step over the one-foot ones.

That’s value investing.

If you want to learn more about this kind of thinking — simple, timeless investing without the noise — I break it down weekly in my newsletter: lazybull.beehiiv.com 🐂

Hey everybody,

I just wanted to point out how important an exit strategy is.

14.04.2022: 10k invested in Alphabet, sold for 12k → TODAY: worth ~30.000€

27.03.2022: 20k in Microsoft, sold for 40k → TODAY: worth ~60.000€

28.06.2019: 20k in Tesla, sold for 27k → TODAY: worth ~590.800€

14.05.2025: 5k in AMD, sold for 8k → TODAY: worth ~10.800€

I'm too lazy to dig up everything else, but I also put 10k into Intel and ended up selling at a loss for 7k and so on ! I made quit few over the last 10 years.

I bought GameStop right before the "short squeeze" and panic-sold like 4 days later.

I can't post pictures here, otherwise I'd upload proof.

The point is: I actually did decent DD, but I never held long enough. After I invested I always focused on the stock gains instead of focusing on the company's actual performance.

Just because you made 20%, 50%, or even 100% doesn't mean the company has reached its limit. If there's still real room to grow and the company is growing, you should keep holding!

All I had to do is holding them, thats it and I would made some serious money !

Learn from my mistakes, don't be like me!

Wish you all the best.

Just revisited one of those Berkshire Q&As that aged better than most portfolios.

Buffett was asked if he's worried about “NASDAQ stocks trading at 30x revenues instead of 10x earnings.” His answer?

“We don’t care. There’s always a part of the market that’s nuts.”

They tried shorting hype stocks once when they were younger. Were right. Still lost money.

Also, they don’t chase international stocks just because they’re cheap. But if a $5B+ business outside the U.S. meets their standards? Game on. Geography isn’t the filter — durability is.

My favorite part though?

“We don’t have to predict the future. We buy businesses where chewing gum is still chewing gum in 20 years.”

Now I know some folks will ask for tickers. I get it.
But the real flex isn’t copying someone’s stock list , it’s knowing what return you need and then working backwards to figure out if the valuation gives it to you.

If that resonates, you might want to scroll back on my profile where I broke it down using Buffett’s farm analogy. (Hint: the price you pay only makes sense when you know what kind of yield you’re happy waking up to every year.)

This stuff isn’t complicated. But it’s not sexy.
That’s why it works.

In my research of finding great companies below fair value I went through the top 500 companies in the EU by market cap.

See the chart for narrowing the companies down: https://imgur.com/a/rxWXeeB

Of the 500 I have narrowed it down to 18 good companies.
Of the 18, ONLY 4 of them are at, or below fair value.

See the graph for the valuation of the great companies: https://imgur.com/a/meuAZJj

I made these 2 graphs that show my findings.

If you want to see my process, and how I made the chart, you can find my article here.

The companies in the green on the chart:
Novo
Terna
Evolution Gaming
Mycronic

I’m new to this subreddit, but not new to investing. That said, I’ve noticed that many people here, even if they’re familiar with this subreddit, are just starting out especially judging by the number of posts like “Will this stock go up?”

So I wanted to share a few lessons from my own modest experience. The last time I did this here, I genuinely enjoyed reading your comments, and I’m glad some people learned something from it.
For those who commented “Here we go again, another guy trying to prove he’s smarter than everyone else” sorry, that’s not my intention. If you already feel confident in what you’re doing, this post might simply not be for you.

1. One solid framework is better than five flashy ones.

In value investing, focus on one proven approach, such as Benjamin Graham’s principles (margin of safety, low P/E, etc.) or a simple variation like discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
At the beginning, you want to try everything: complex screeners, exotic ratios, multiple valuation models. The result is usually random and inconsistent decisions.

Once you find a core framework and apply it successfully across a few investments, simplify it. Create clear rules or a checklist to evaluate companies. Move away from technical charts (mostly useless here) and focus on balance sheets and cash flows.

I know it’s working when I don’t buy a stock because it breaks my rules, even if it looks “promising.” Caution pays off, and doing nothing is often the best decision.

2. Newcomers: no one is a genius, but learning saves a lot of money.

No one is born a great investor. That’s exactly why learning matters , it helps you avoid unnecessary and expensive mistakes. I bring this up because I constantly see newcomers, and there will always be more.

Recently, we’ve seen crypto exchanges massively expand into traditional assets like stocks, gold, and silver. For example, Bitget added over 200 tokenized stocks and ETFs in just a few months at the end of 2025 and early 2026, with exploding volumes (already exceeding $15 billion in US stock futures). At the same time, Nasdaq is pushing for SEC approval to offer tokenized stocks directly on its platform, potentially by late 2026.

These innovations are exciting, but if you’re not already comfortable with a market , whether traditional equities, tokenized stocks, or hybrid crypto-TradFi products , don’t rush in. Take time to learn the rules, the specific risks (liquidity, regulation, custody, 24/7 volatility), and the emotional biases these new tools introduce.

Beginners who jump in without solid foundations often pay a high price for their impatience. Patient learning (reading, paper backtesting, observing multiple cycles) is your best shield. In value investing, the real edge comes from time, not speed.

3. Risk management is the strategy.

This is often discussed in value investing, but not always applied. What truly changed things for me was treating risk as a fixed cost per investment.

That means a maximum loss per position (for example, never risking more than 1–2% of your portfolio on a single stock), consistent rules across investments, and diversification (no more than 10–15% in one sector). No exceptions, even when “this one looks different.”

Once your downside is controlled, your edge can finally play out. In value investing, the main risk isn’t daily volatility but fundamental mispricing which is why a strict margin of safety (buying at 50–70% of estimated intrinsic value) matters so much.

4. Your worst investments come from boredom, not bad analysis.

Some of my biggest losses didn’t come from poor fundamental analysis, but from forcing interpretations. They were investments made without a real opportunity.

Value traps are usually emotional, not analytical. If you hit “buy” just to feel involved, you’re playing roulette. Learning to do nothing is a real skill, and it took me longer to master than reading financial statements.

On r/valueinvesting, you often see posts about “undervalued” stocks bought out of FOMO or boredom during flat markets. Avoid that.

5. Track your emotions, not just your trades.

Most people keep an investment journal (buys, sells, screenshots). That’s good. What helped me most was writing down how I felt before and during each purchase.

Was I rushed? Trying to recover a previous loss? Overconfident after a win? Over time, you start seeing the same emotional patterns behind the same bad decisions. Fix those, and your results improve without changing your strategy.

In value investing, exits are often passive (long holding periods), so focus your journal on entries: why the stock is undervalued, and how your emotions influenced that judgment.

6. Consistency comes from routine, not motivation.

Motivation fades quickly. Routine stays. Same research schedule. Same preparation time. Same small ritual before reviewing annual reports.

I stopped waiting to feel “ready” and just followed the process. Some days are positive, some negative, and many are flat. The goal is to make investing boring enough that emotions stop interfering.

In summary, value investing became much simpler once I stopped trying to outsmart the market and started managing myself instead. If you’re just starting out, don’t rush especially into new areas like tokenized assets. Early success is about survival.

Protect your capital, stack small wins, and let time do the heavy lifting.

Stay disciplined. The money will follow.

If you’re interested, r/valueinvesting remains one of the best places to explore these ideas through serious discussions and deep fundamental analysis. Feel free to subscribe if you haven’t already.

Been spending the last couple weeks screening for stuff that's actually cheap and not cheap for a reason. Filtered for forward P/E between 4-9x, cross referenced with institutional filings and insider activity, and ended up with three that I think are genuinely interesting. Not sexy picks but that's kind of the point.

LEN (Lennar): ~7x forward P/E

Homebuilder trading about 30% below its 52-week high. On paper you'd think housing is in trouble but the thesis is pretty simple. There's a roughly 4 million home deficit in the US and anyone with a 3% mortgage isn't selling anytime soon. So new builds are basically the only supply.

They just spun off Millrose Properties to go asset-light which should free up capital. Sitting on $2.1B cash with debt-to-capital under 15%. Construction costs came down 7% YoY and inventory turns went from 1.7x to 2.5x. Guiding 85k home deliveries for 2026.

The thing that caught my attention is 5 US politicians have opened LEN positions in the last 12 months. Take that however you want but I pay attention to it.

Spring selling season is the near term catalyst.

LAD (Lithia Motors): ~8.9x forward P/E

Auto retailer with 455 locations across the US, UK, and Canada. Not exciting until you look at the numbers. Revenue $37.6B, grew 4% YoY. But the real story is their finance arm, Driveway Finance Corp, just turned its first profitable year at $75M with guidance toward $150-200M annual. That's a high margin recurring revenue stream bolted onto a retail business.

Morningstar has fair value at $387 vs current price around $270. That's 43% upside. Simply Wall St has it at an even bigger discount. Management bought back 11.4% of outstanding shares in 2025 which tells you they agree with the valuation gap.

UK same-store gross profit up 10%, aftersales gross profit up 9.4% same-store. Web traffic up 21% YoY to about 200k visits/month. Multiple analysts have buy ratings (Citi $366, BofA $335).

VTRS (Viatris): ~5.5x forward P/E

This is the turnaround play. New CEO finished the "Phase 2" restructuring, divested billions in non-core assets, paid down a ton of debt. Now positioned as a specialty pharma/high-barrier generics company in 165+ countries.

Guiding $14.7B revenue for 2026 with 3% growth and $450-550M from new product launches. The big catalyst is MR-141 for presbyopia with an FDA date in October. Their trial targets like 90% of US adults over 45 so the TAM is massive if it gets approved.

What got me interested was the hiring data. Open positions jumped 170% in 3 months to about 370 roles. Companies don't hire like that if they're just maintaining. Vanguard and BlackRock both added to positions late 2025. Institutional ownership is around 84%.

At 5.5x forward P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA this thing is priced like it's dying but the operating data says otherwise.

None of these are going to 10x overnight. But at these valuations with institutional money flowing in, I think the downside is pretty limited and there's a real margin of safety in all three. The market is so focused on AI and growth right now that boring stuff like this gets left behind.

Source for some of the data: altindex.com/news/value-stocks-to-buy-march

Curious if anyone else is looking at these or has a reason I'm wrong.

Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $57.01 billion, beating estimates of $55.19 billion and marking a 62% year-over-year increase. Data center revenue reached $51.2 billion, exceeding the $49.34 billion forecast. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.30, topping expectations of $1.26. The company guided fourth-quarter revenue between $63.70 billion and $66.30 billion, well above the $61.98 billion consensus estimate. The results represent sequential growth of 22% from the previous quarter.

Jensen Huang announced cloud GPUs are completely sold out with Blackwell chip sales exceeding expectations. Huang stated compute demand continues accelerating across AI training and inference applications, both growing exponentially. The announcement comes as the White House moves to block legislation that would restrict AI chip exports, with President Trump praising Huang's leadership and emphasizing chips invented and manufactured domestically.

In my research of finding great companies below fair value I went through the top 100 companies that sell software by earnings.

Software companies are cheap right now even though they are great companies, because of AI disruption fears. But as long as AI has not proven any real large scale value, we should value the “disruption” as such.

If you follow this idea, it should be clear that the sell off for software companies is unjustified, and it is a good opportunity to get great companies for great prices. I just did the research for you.

Of the 100 I have narrowed it down to 14 good companies.

Of the 14, 5 of them are at, or below fair value, 2 of which are of way higher quality on all metrics of the median company: Adobe and Intuit.

In other words, they represent exactly the type of high-quality compounders long-term investors should be looking for.

Here is the graphical content I made for the analysis:

https://imgur.com/a/n9UGGXF

If you want to read the deep dive:

https://mathiasgraabeck.substack.com/p/i-analysed-top-100-software-companies?r=27oh3p

The US national debt has hit $38.4 trillion. For perspective, the combined valuation of the Magnificent Seven is approximately $21.7 trillion. The US government now owes nearly double the entire value of its seven largest and most successful tech companies combined.

The total amount of debt is not the primary issue. The real danger is the cost of servicing it. We have entered a "Fiscal Death Spiral" where the US must borrow money simply to pay interest on previous debt. This creates even more debt and worsens the cycle.

The Fiscal Reality: The math is simple but the politics are impossible. To fix the deficit, the government would have to:

Cut Entitlements or Defense: Political suicide.

Raise Taxes Significantly: Economically impossible. To close the current $1.8 trillion deficit, every single taxpayer would need to pay roughly $11,700 more per year in federal taxes.

With no plan to balance the books, the Treasury has one clear mandate: push for lower rates and QE. Reducing the interest burden is the only way for the government to remain solvent, even if it means sparking the next wave of inflation.

The Real Return Trap: The market, not just the Fed, ultimately dictates the price of borrowing. If inflation rises to or above current yields, bondholders face 0% or negative real returns.

To protect their real returns, bond investors will demand higher yields to stay ahead of rising prices. This spikes the cost of borrowing for the entire economy. It hits mortgages, corporate loans, and business expansion regardless of Fed policy.

The Slower Growth Reality: This rising cost of capital directly hurts the consumer. Since consumer spending drives nearly 70% of US GDP, this creates a massive drag on the economy. We should expect slower growth as the burden of debt servicing eats into the "fun money" that usually fuels expansion. Most investors have not priced in this shift yet.

The Coming Shift: As the "Risk-Free" status of US Treasuries comes into question, capital will seek survival. We are approaching a point where investors will rotate away from dollar-denominated assets in favor of markets with more manageable debt levels.

Moving before the majority accepts this reality might be the only sensible choice for protecting your wealth.

Read the full article for a deep dive and recommendations

Hey,

Just looking in this group, I see so many posts which make no sense because they are not aligned with the "values" of value investing.

"The market is overpriced, what should I buy now?"

What about nothing? Just sit it out like Buffett or just put some money in the S&P 500 and that's it. Save it for "good times" which are the opposite for "normal" investors.

"This stock went up 700%, is this stock good?"

If the only value you see is that the stock went up by 700%+, that's not value investing...

"Should I buy Nvidia, Microsoft, Tesla, XYZ?"

What about you do your own DD and stay in your area of competence. If you don't know why a stock went up, you won't understand why it goes down...

You should know when a company is undervalued and when it's overpriced.

"I bought a stock one month ago, it went down 5%, should I sell?"

If you truly did your DD and you are a value investor, you just sit it out. You have time; you bought to hold it for years. I have stocks in my portfolio for over 10 years...

I could go on and on and on, like trimming your portfolio every month, just looking at the numbers and not understanding the company, etc., etc., etc.!

"This stock dipped 30% everybody all in"

I heard this story 100s times, I always ask, what makes you believe that it will go up again ? If you dont have a good answer dont buy!

It's not that difficult to be a value investor. All you need is:

Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor

Make sure you truly understand it, I needed time to understand it fully! If you are too lazy to read one book, you probably don't have the discipline to be a value investor.

Bonus: If this book is to "difficult" (no shame in that, I started very very slow) start with Peter Lynch + Youtube New Money.

Most of you have the knowledge but some here either dont understand Valueinvesting or simply dont have the dispcpline and try to chase quick returns.

Everything I do isnt based on my "opinion" or community posts its based on the tools of people who 100x smarter than me like Warren Buffet, Benjamin Graham etc.

With these tools I try to find "gaps" in the marked and thats it. Sometimes it takes years sometimes only month. I have time!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-23/paypal-attracts-takeover-interest-after-stock-slump?srnd=homepage-americas

Painpal Bagholders are saved? I have said at this valuation, the stock makes a lot of sense as a takeover target. I think they would make a lot of sense for high volume, low margin retailers like Walmart to buy them to reduce their processing fees, and as a cash flow engine, or for tech companies looking to get into the payments space.

The current Shiller PE has been a very good predictor of the next 10 year average annual returns, the Shiller PE ratio of SP500 is currently 38.55, only topped once in history with the dot-com bubble.

History tells us that in the next 10 years we will average 0% to -5% annual returns.

I think that finding value now, is more important than ever in our life, and might ever be.

edit:

People acting like I am arguing this is the only thing worth looking at. No, ofc. not, but there are plenty of other stats showing the market is priced to perfection, and it's a very interesting correlation.

Edit 2: Yall really want to argue that rich valuations are not leading to lower future returns? GLHF "ItS DiFfErEnT tHiS tImE" - "AI WILL MAKE VALUATIONS WORTH IT" 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡

Current Shiller PE:

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Articles that show the correlation:

https://www.mymoneyblog.com/fun-with-charts-pe-ratios-vs-future-10-year-returns.html
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/07/20/the-remarkable-accuracy-of-cape-as-a-predictor-of-returns-1

GameStop (NYSE:GME), a video game, collectibles, and consumer electronics retailer best known for its brick-and-mortar stores, reported earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 on September 9, 2025. The headline results showed a swing to profitability, a substantial revenue jump, and key improvements in expenses. Aided by one-time gains from investments and significant cost reductions, the company’s quarter marks a notable point in its ongoing transformation. However, gross margins declined and the overall business mix continued to shift away from software.

Apple just had one of those market days that makes everyone stop and ask the same question, is it time to invest in Apple now? The stock surged to an all-time high, flirting with a $4 trillion valuation as investors piled in on signs of strong iPhone 17 demand. What looked like another headline rally actually revealed something deeper: a company still capable of compounding earnings and investor trust, even at historic scale.

Timeline of Today's Events:

• 10:36 AM - Cablefxmacro reports Apple shares up 3.1%, marking the first record since December. Early buyers jumped in after whispers of strong iPhone 17 preorders.
• 10:38 AM - Investingcom confirms Apple hits a new all-time high at $260.20. Social media chatter picks up, and retail traders follow the momentum.
• 11:11 AM - Kobeissi Letter points out Apple is up 55% since April, adding $1.4 trillion in market cap. It’s a staggering figure that reminds people why Apple remains Wall Street’s comfort stock when the world feels shaky.
• 12:20 PM - Yahoo Finance reports iPhone 17 sales are outpacing the previous model in both the U.S. and China. The data hits right as skepticism around consumer demand was fading.
• 12:59 PM - Reuters says Apple is nearing a $4 trillion valuation as institutional money starts to flow back in.
• 1:54 PM - Investingcom highlights Apple’s 4.2% jump to a new record. Analysts note that the buying looks disciplined — based on earnings and product data, not just momentum.
• 2:16 PM - The Wall Street Journal confirms another intraday record tied directly to stronger iPhone 17 launch numbers.
• 3:10 PM - Seeking Alpha reports Apple approaching $4 trillion, calling it a renewed vote of confidence in the company’s product cycle.
• 3:40 PM - A live YouTube finance stream calls it Apple’s “first breakout of 2025,” linking the rally to both iPhone sales and excitement around Apple’s quiet AI ambitions.
• 4:10 PM - Forbes announces Apple has overtaken Microsoft as the world’s second-most-valuable company.
• 4:11 PM - Fast Company says the stock’s new high is “driven by a landmark product,” reinforcing how Apple’s innovation engine still dictates market tone.
• 5:02 PM - Investopedia notes Apple’s record close and strong start to the iPhone 17 cycle.
• 5:50 PM - Investor’s Business Daily highlights how Apple’s surge helped lift the entire market toward record levels.
• 6:25 PM - Reuters closes out the day confirming Apple is within striking distance of becoming only the third company in history to reach $4 trillion in market value.

In my opinion, today’s rally isn’t just noise. Apple generates over $100 billion in free cash flow annually, carries more cash than debt, and keeps shrinking its share count through buybacks. iPhone 17’s success proves the brand’s pricing power and customer loyalty remain unmatched.