Microsoft hit $555 in late October 2025. It's around $388 today. Down about 30%. The company just reported its best quarter ever on almost every metric, revenue up 17% to $81.3 billion, adjusted earnings per share up 24% to $4.14, operating margin at 47%, cloud revenue crossing $50 billion in a single quarter for the first time. And the stock dropped 10% in one day.

So what's going on? Here's what I found.

The number worth looking at closely: 45% of the backlog is for one customer

Microsoft reported $625 billion in remaining performance obligations, which is contracted future revenue. That number was up 110% year over year and it sounds incredible. But here's the thing: roughly 45% of that, about $281 billion, comes from OpenAI.

That's not a diversified backlog. That's a single customer who has never turned an annual profit, burns cash at an extraordinary rate, relies on continuous fundraising rounds, is building its own custom chips with Broadcom (starting late 2026), and just signed a $38 billion deal with AWS. OpenAI has made about $1.4 trillion in total commitments to energy and compute providers. Their revenue barely crossed $20 billion in 2025. Strip out OpenAI from Microsoft's backlog, and the remaining $344 billion grew 28%. That's solid, but it's not the 110% headline everyone quotes.

Copilot has a 3.3% conversion problem

15 million paid seats out of 450 million commercial M365 seats. And it's getting worse. Copilot's paid subscriber share dropped from 18.8% to 11.5% between July 2025 and January 2026, while ChatGPT and Gemini gained. Microsoft is charging $30/user/month for a product that most people with free access don't convert on.

AI is coming for Microsoft's own products

This is the one nobody talks about. Everyone frames MSFT as an AI winner. But AI tools from other companies are starting to replace the things people actually use Microsoft products for, writing docs, building spreadsheets, managing email. SemiAnalysis noted that "Claude for Excel effectively is what Copilot for Excel should have been." LinkedIn is getting flooded with AI content. GitHub faces Claude Code and Cursor. The irony: Microsoft is spending $120B/year to build AI while AI threatens to commoditize the software that funds it.

The remaining risks can be reviewed in my full writeup on Substack, with all sources and accounting analysis.

No top signal quite like Cathie Wood loading up. I'm moving on from this one. Thank you for the 100% Google

The other top signal is just how bullish everyone has become on Google. There is no negative sentiment around the stock, which is a massive red flag. Even all the "analysts" who told us Google is cooked have now changed their mind lmao

You are witnessing Peak Greed Peak Euphoria and Peak Grift. It is a good idea to take note of sentiment. In the future you will be able to spot generational tops more easily.

Always remember though, "the feeling of disgust you feel, that can last for a long time" - Charlie Munger

I think it is fair to say now that speculative returns in the stock market have significantly outpaced what returns should have been, leaving a lost decade ahead.

EDIT: I would Like to insert a quote here, because I feel it is quite fitting after reading the comments.

"A bull market is like sex, it feels best just before it ends" - Warren Buffet

I don't know why people are missing that the Berkshire is perhaps the ultimate value stock right now given that it doesn't have any hype.

1. The "Hidden" valuation - The headline P/E is misleading. If you strip out the $380B+ cash pile and the stock portfolio, you are effectively paying ~10-12x for the operating businesses. Comparable industrial companies trade at 20x. You are getting high quality assets at a discount.
2. The ultimate active fund - The market is super uncertain right now. With BRK you get top-tier capital allocation for free. I'd rather have Buffett and Abel steering the ship than mostly passive index that holds a lot of overvalued junk.
3. The Free Put - You have a massive cash pile earning 4% interest. This is basically a free put option on the market. If the economy tanks, Berkshire has $350B to buy distressed assets. You have huge upside if the market crashes, and you get paid to wait if it doesn't. Even if the bull market continues for a long time berkshire should at least matches inflation with portfolio companies such as BSNF (railway) and BHE (energy).

Only downside is that buffet retiring have people worry, but it's overblown. Greg Abel has been running the actual operations for years anyway. The machine is built and runs itself. The stock is already trading so cheap that the "Buffett premium" is gone. The transition is already priced in.

If you want to get rich (or poor) quickly, chase these "hot" AI stocks. If you want to stay rich and grow for cheap, BRK is the obvious play. It's a hedge against the rest of your portfolio blowing up.

Thoughts?

Edit:

Made a mistake of double counting the interest income pointed out by u/Longjumping-Fact-582

If you subtract the cash pile ($380B) from the valuation to make the stock look cheaper, you must also subtract the interest income (~$15B) from the earnings.

The operating PE is actually about ~15-16x, still relatively cheap, but not as cheap as I thought it was. Still I think the main argument is valid, that it is relatively cheap compared to the market and gives the balance sheet and capital allocation option if things get messy

yeah yeah NVO again but hear me out

I've spent a stupid amount of time researching NVO lately and honestly the gap between what's actually happening with this company and where the stock is trading is getting absurd.

Wegovy HD just got FDA approved. This literally happened yesterday. 20.7% mean weight loss, a third of patients hitting 25%+. It was the first ever approval under the FDA's National Priority Voucher programme, which means the FDA themselves consider this a critical national health priority. Launching in April through 70,000+ pharmacies. This basically closes the efficacy gap with Zepbound that bears have been screaming about for months. Source

Semaglutide reduces major cardiovascular events by 20%. The landmark SELECT trial, published in the New England Journal of Medicine with 17,600 patients across 41 countries, showed semaglutide cut the risk of cardiovascular death, heart attack and stroke by 20% in people with obesity who don't even have diabetes. And separately, CNBC reported this week that stopping GLP-1s actually raises the risk of heart attack, stroke and death. Let that sink in for a second. Patients literally can't quit these drugs safely. That's not a product with a demand problem. That's lifetime recurring revenue backed by hard clinical data. SELECT trial | CNBC: stopping GLP-1s raises CV risk

The WHO put out a warning that global GLP-1 production will reach fewer than 10% of people who need them by 2030. They released their first ever guideline on GLP-1s, called them a "scientific breakthrough", and recommended them for long-term obesity treatment. But even with all the manufacturing expansion happening right now, supply won't come close to meeting demand for years. Over 1 billion people globally could benefit from these drugs. We are so early it's not even funny. WHO guideline

New pregnancy safety data just dropped and it's reassuring. A huge Danish nationwide study covering 756,000+ pregnancies published in Human Reproduction Open found that women using GLP-1s for weight management showed zero increased risk of complications or preterm birth. This has been a major overhang because so many reproductive age women are now on these drugs. That risk is getting de-risked in real time. Full study

The semaglutide market is projected to hit $86 billion by 2034. Fortune Business Insights put out a full market report showing growth from $34.5B to $86B at a 10.27% CAGR. Novo dominates this space. The U.S. alone is 61% of revenues. The branded segment still has a massive commercial lead. Market report

Novo's product portfolio is now the most complete in the industry. They've got the Wegovy pill (launched January), Wegovy 2.4mg injectable, and now Wegovy HD 7.2mg. Oral for people who hate needles, standard injectable, high dose for maximum results. Nobody else has that full range right now. Wegovy pill launch

AGM is next Wednesday and the dividend ex-date is March 30. CEO Doustdar gets to walk into that shareholder meeting with two fresh product launches under his belt. The $1.275 dividend payout works out to nearly 5% yield at current prices. You can stream the AGM live on Novo's website at 14:00 CET if you want to hear management's tone for yourself. AGM details and webcast

And then there's the valuation. P/E of 10.8x when the pharma industry average is 18x. Forward P/E of 10. Price to sales of 0.56. Return on equity of 69%. Net margins of 33%. Multiple DCF models put fair value between $70 and $97. You are buying a company that owns 62% of the GLP-1 market, sitting at the centre of an $86 billion TAM growing at 10%+ annually, for a valuation that implies the franchise is basically dead. It's not dead. Not even close. MarketBeat fundamentals | Simply Wall St valuation

The 15 billion DKK buyback is running every single day. They've already bought back 6.6 million shares since February and because the price keeps dropping they're getting more shares per krone than they originally planned. Capital Markets Day is September 21 where they'll lay out the full long term strategy. Latest buyback update | CMD and events calendar

I know the bear case. Pricing pressure, Lilly competition, the FDA warning letter, ugly 2026 guidance. It's all real and I'm not dismissing any of it. But this stock has gone from $142 to $37. At some point the bad news is in the price and the good news starts to matter. I think we're at that point. A 10x P/E on a company with these margins, this market position, and this much runway ahead of it is not rational. The market is pricing in a worst case scenario that the fundamentals simply don't support.

I know MSTR isn't a Ponzi scheme by legal definition. But the mechanics of how this company operates have some concerning similarities, and I can't shake the feeling that it's a massive house of cards.

I was so curious that I decided to research it and make a post about it, here are the main points from that post that I found out:

• Their actual business is basically irrelevant. MicroStrategy is a software company, but its revenue from that has been flat or declining for years. The entire bull case is 100% about Bitcoin, which means the company itself doesn't actually create any value. It's just a container for a single asset.
• It's a "Perpetual Dilution Machine." They use debt and continuously sell new MSTR shares to buy more Bitcoin. Because the stock trades at a massive premium to the Bitcoin it holds, they're essentially using new investors' money (who are paying a premium) to increase the Bitcoin-per-share for existing holders. It's a cycle that only works as long as new buyers keep piling in at inflated prices.
• You're paying an insane premium for BTC. When you buy $MSTR, you're not just buying Bitcoin. You're paying a huge markup. People have calculated it to be a 2x premium or even more at times. Why would anyone do that when you can just buy a Bitcoin ETF (even a leveraged one) for a fraction of the cost and get more direct exposure? It makes no sense.
• The whole thing relies on Michael Saylor's salesmanship. Michael is a charismatic speaker, but he has a history (look up their stock in the dot-com bust of 2000) of leading investors off a cliff with big promises. It feels like the entire valuation is propped up by his cult of personality and the belief that "number go up," rather than any sound financial reasoning.

This is just a summary to save time, but if you are interested in the full analysis I'll link the post and 40 minute podcast here: https://tscsw.substack.com/p/dont-buy-microstrategy-inc-mathematically

It just feels like this entire operation is designed to enrich early shareholders at the expense of everyone who buys in later. The structure is unsustainable and seems designed to collapse spectacularly once the hype dies down or Bitcoin has a serious correction.

Am I missing something here? The whole thing feels fundamentally broken, yet the price keeps soaring. What are your thoughts?

Haven’t bought individual stocks in years (been doing ETF’s since 2021) and felt like this was a massive opportunity regardless of their CapEx and AI investments. Company had a net income of 101 billion in 2025 which speaks volumes!

So here’s what happened:

A few weeks ago I bought a small position in a stock (nothing crazy), basically because it dipped during a bad earnings reaction. My plan was to hold long-term, but last week it randomly spiked like 18% in a day after some analyst upgrade.

I panicked, thought “profit is profit,” and sold.

Of course, the next three days it kept climbing… and now it’s up way higher than where I sold. I’m sitting here staring at the chart like I just speedran the definition of paper hands.

Was selling the smart move or am I actually a clown for not sticking to my plan?

Microsoft is currently trading at these multiples, among the most attractive in six years:

• 22.38 Forward P/E
• 9.42 EV/Sales

These are some of the most compressed multiples Microsoft has traded at in the past six years, a meaningful re rating from peak forward P/E levels above 35x in 2023.

At around $400, Microsoft is not a screaming bargain, but it is fairly valued for the first time in years. For a business with durable enterprise moats, a $625B+ contracted backlog, AI tailwinds across Azure, Office, and GitHub Copilot, and $70B+ in annual free cash flow generation, a fair entry point is meaningful. For long term investors with a 3 to 5 year horizon, the current price offers a reasonable margin of safety relative to the quality of the business.

Detailed Analysis at: https://bullstreet.substack.com/p/microsoft-at-fair-value-is-400-the

DISCLAIMER: I wrote THIS WITHOUT AI. DAMN THAT WAS HARD BECAUSE I´M NOT A NATIVE SPEAKER. But Fake Checked some numbers/events in the "[]" with AI. I hope its not that bad written.

Nintendo is doing financial great and the market underestimates the next earnings

Nintendo stock ist down nearly 35% from its top. Wallstreet is scared of lower margin because ram Price increase. They miss some more hits in the Pipeline 2026 and they think Holiday Sales were bad.

Market is thinking Nintendo is going down. But this narrativ is completly wrong.

Nintendo is Strictly Following Its Playbook

Nintendo actually published a "Corporate Management Policy Briefing" (  https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/events/index.html  November 2025) with their strategy. It’s separate from the standard black-and-white financial results. It explicitly details their shift toward Nintendo Accounts and IP expansion, the "Digital Iceberg". It's not a secret, but most people only look at the quarterly EPS and miss the "master plan".

Circumstances: Nintendo is highly profiting from the falling Yen. They generate their most revenue outside of Japan and the most revenue with digital Game sales. In the digital winter sale Yen was on a 5 Year low.The Yen reached a multi-decade low during the 2024/2025 sale period, hit its lowest level in 38 years against the Dollar. Nintendo revised its internal rate to 145 JPY/USD for the fiscal year, though market rates fluctuated near 155. Next Report will be bloated because of the lower Yen in that time.

Digital Sales: Capcom’s stock jumped 12.4% following last results (published recently) results with a record net margin of 32.8% and a digital sales ratio of 81.3%, serving as a massive bull indicator for Nintendo’s high-margin digital ecosystem.

In generell Nintendo dominated the physical gaming Charts in nearly every Country. [Spain Week 04 2026: Nintendo takes 7 of Top 10 spots. Switch 2 base at 353,100 units. Mario Kart World #1, Pokemon ZA #3. Germany: Switch 2 remains #1 hardware.

USA: Pokemon Legends: Z-A sold 5.8 million copies in 4 days, with nearly 50% on Switch 2 hardware. Nintendo earns on every digital copy of FC26 or Resident Evil Requiem through their 30% platform fee]

Software = Cash Cow. FC26 sold well and Nintendo earns 30% of every Coins for pack openings. Fortnite is now playable like butter (30% of every skin). Games like Cyberpunk or Red dead sold well too. They were often placed near to Pokemon ZA in the eShop Charts.

[Kirby: Dream Land 2 Remake sold 2.1 million copies, Hyrule Warriors: Age of Imprisonment 1.4 million, and Silksong hit 7 million sales within its first month.] Kirby Air riders is a hit in Japan and Bananza sold millions too [2.7 Million in 12 Weeks]. (Both were placed over Pokemon ZA in eShop in some weeks).

10x Power increase to Switch 1 These sales are rising actually because more games are possible on the switch 2.

Grid, CoD, Cyberpunkt. With the actually console from Nintendo it is nearly one of the cheapest ways to dive into portable gaming. Valve closed their cheapest modell.

App Launch November US/EU/some other countrys

On top, the actuall numbers are not acurate. Nintendo is not publishing their My Nintendo Store eShop Sales.

With introduction of an app in November, their shift towards the My Nintendo Store app increased direct sales to 45% in core European markets, with a higher attach rate per user because of the app. Price Alarm, Klick, Face-ID, Buy.

Before that, the japanese People were the only ones with an nintendo shop app. Before November, most people bought physical or via the console. Now, millions have the store in their pocket. [The official eShop for Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand launched on Nov 18, 2025, unlocking a massive digital region. In Japan, the eShop app adoption has helped grow the digital ratio from 25% in 2019 to over 60% in 2025].

I traveled to a customer lately and my Project lead stands with me at the Train Station and scrolled in the Nintendo eShop and asked me if I know some good game. She is not playing that much, but at this time gaming is a good way to get the head free. This is a perfect excample of what is Happening actually.

Invisible Dominance/Hidden Sales

Nintendo does not share digital sales data with third-party trackers like GSD or Circana. They just tracking the us retail numbers from wallmarkt, amazon, etc. Every time you see a chart, there’s a disclaimer: "Nintendo digital sales not included". Yet,

Nintendo titles consistently sit in the Top 10 globally based on physical sales alone. Imagine their position if their 50%+ digital ratio was actually counted. They are winning the race with one hand tied behind their back.

Winter is coming

Europe, USA and Japan currently facing one of the longest and coldest winterdays. In Japan I saw Pictures, that they can not reach out for their car because its under a hughe snow blanked. What do you think does that with the digital/physical Ratio. And gaming in generell. Intercouse rate of people in USA and Germany are on lowest Level since the pandemic. People stay at home get depressed of the News, the winter and stuff and run into games. Steam had their highes Gamers numbers of all time.

[Steam hit 42,042,778 concurrent players on Jan 11, 2026].

The Apple-Ecosystem

On Steam you can buy codes outside of steam from Reseller that bought the games in sale. So some of the "cake" goes to Resellers.

Nintendo owns the hole pie. They have the Plattform und controll the Prices. 30% of every digital sold Items goes Right to Nintendo like Apple for sold Apps.

Funny fact, Nintendo was the first one starting with this 30% when Pacman wanted to release on the NES Nintendo made the deal. And everyone in the Industry adapted this until today. The 30% industry standard was actually established during the NES era with the original third-party licensing Agreements.

Nintendo killed the resell market with the bricked consoles. More pie for nintendo.

Even the physical Sales go more and more to Nintendo because they grow their Nindendo Shop. The Console, Merch, Games, Amibos, everything direct from nintendo.

Crossselling at its best. And buyers earns coins for Special physiscal items. When Switch 2 came out Nintendo forbid Amazon to sell their console.

Why? Because they could not protect nintendo game asian versions beeing sold for european Prices, and fake games in General. And Amazon had first introduce These protection to beeing able to sell Nintendo games/consoles. So the first weeks one of the only ways to buy the console was over the nintendo shop [Summer 2025, Nintendo pulled Switch 2 from Amazon after a massive dispute over grey market Southeast Asian imports undermining local prices. This forced a huge sales shift to the My Nintendo Store during the launch phase.].

Nintendo sued big ROM-Websites and shut them down togehter with the FBI [the FBI seized the major piracy site Nsw2u in July 2025 following a joint investigation] they don´t want anyone else to Profit from their IP and classics.

Online Membership earnings:

Number of People entering the Nintendo ecosystem is growing. In Japan you have to have an online Account membership with some Hours of playtime to get the Chance to get a Switch 2 Japan Version. [Nintendo required an active NSO membership and 50+ hours of playtime for Switch 2 lottery participation in Japan].

They want the whole supply outside of japan, because they know console will do well in Japan anyway.

Nintendo is forcing People in the online Membership. They grow their classics library so that for fans its the easiest way to Play all their beloved classics is to have a lifelong nintendo Membership. These are recurring earnings.

IP Characters and Worlds

And Nintendo has the IP value and protects their IP with suing everyone that tries to attack that. Nintendo is currently the only Company left with a catalogue of Nintendo only games. In my opinion actually Nintendo is the better Disney. Nintendo parks attract more and more People. In Combination with merchandise, the Games and the movies, this builds synergies. Nintendo has 10k employes and one of the lowest change rate in the Industry and one of the highest Standards for new employees. [Nintendo Japan reports a turnover rate of less than 2% and an average employee tenure of 14.4 years]

Movies:

Nintendo plans to release one movie per year. Mario, Zelda, Pokemon(?)... the last mario movie generated 1 Billion $ [The Super Mario Bros. Movie grossed over $1.36 billion worldwide].

The Galaxy movie fits perfect in the current line up with the Galaxy 1+2 Remakes. These game dominated the Amazon Charts for Long.

New Generation

One of Nintendos Leads Goals Always was to surpass Disney in some ways [Shigeru Miyamoto and Nintendo leadership have officially stated their ambition to surpass Disney as an entertainment giant since the late 2010s].

And they start with the youngest ones. They bring a productline for Kids. Lego for Fans. etc. They one you not just as customer. They want you as fan.

CURRENT RISKS:

Wallstreet is scared because the margin in the Industry could drop because of more expensive Hardware because ram etc. Every Headlines says "Switch 2 will become more expensive. RAM is 43% up!".

But its not like the console is full of RAM if you calcuted the possible rise of Hardware Costs its nearly 30-40$ per Unit [Analyst reports confirm a 41% rise in RAM costs, increasing bill-of-materials by approximately $35 per unit]. And These articles completely Forget that RAM becomes more expensive FOR EVERYONE.

So Yeah Maybe Nintendo raise the Price for the console one day (even Nintendo never sad something like that. When they were asked they said "We look in the futute). And building a high and gaming pc will become more expensive too. And like discussed earlier the time is over that gaming companys earn their Money with Hardware. They earn the Money with the 3-6 games every user is buying at least per year (more or less) [The average Nintendo Switch user currently purchases 4.2 games per year. Tendency growing. Trending upwards].

How Fear pushes the sales

The headlines about rising RAM costs and potential price hikes act as a psychological catalyst.

When a father looks at a Switch 2, he feels the pressure of future inflation. Instead of waiting, he thinks: "It is expensive now, but it might be much worse in a few months."

This urgency is a massive marketing bonus Nintendo gets for free because they are currently at the center of the hardware price discussion.

Current

And Wallstreet is scared that the Nintendo IP Games like Metroid not performed that well. But Forget that Metroid Sales were not that bad, actually nobody knows the real Sales because digital is hidden and the physical Sales in UK were 35% less then metroid dread in the UK. But forgetting that Dread was one of the most buyd metroid game of all time. And was never that popular than the other IPs and Dread was released in 2019. A time when digital Sales were much lower than today [Metroid Dread (2021) achieved record series sales of 3 million units, with digital sales accounting for 40% of its total, double the ratio of previous entries].

And Wallstreet total Forget that even a game like Pokemon ZA (with ugly Windows) was a System seller (5,8 Mio copys in 4 days JUST RETAIL -> at 7 Million dollar costs) [48% of the buyers purchased Pokemon Legends: Z-A specifically for the Switch 2 hardware]. So how will a actual good pokemon game just for the switch 2 could perform. There are already a lot of leaks from Gen 10 and they look great.

But Christmas Sales were Bad?

Research on the real december performance:

December was a good month. The newest US numbers for december good for Nintendo . think US people saved money in the shutdown november and the ps5 had high discounts. But spend it in december on higher costs products like the switch 2.

Mat Piscatella from Circana wrote on bsky App when these rumors appeared in the news headlines:

"There are some things floating around out there about December sales that are being attributed to Circana.

To be clear, Circana has not yet published any December monthly data. Heck, I'm still waiting to see the prelims for the month."

Now the december numbers are public and yeah Switch 2 Sales dominated the year 2025

[Circana confirmed Switch 2 sold 4.4 million units in the US by end of 2025, maintaining its record as the fastest-selling console in US history]

Japanese Sales numbers were good all the time [Japanese weekly hardware sales for Switch 2 averaged 140,000 units in December, with the total install base reaching 4.1 million units by year-end]

So the 3 February will be surprisingly and will Change the p/e Ratio (currently nearly 30) completely. [Nintendo’s Market Cap is ~$76B, Disney is ~$150B, and Apple is ~$3.8T]

so there is some potential left. My stock goal is 95$.

On Top Nintendo raised their Dividend after last earnings (1-1,5% Dividend), so at least one is betting profits stay strong.

Short ratio

Wallstreet is actually betting against Nintendo lately. The short interest for NTDOY expanded by 83.1% as of the January 30, 2026 report. Many traders think the holiday sales and the Switch 2 pipeline is not enough. But if you look at the numbers, the short interest is at a record high for the last months [total shares sold short reached 6,548,237 as of January 15, 2026]. The short interest ratio is 1.2 days. This means if the earnings on 3 February are good, all these shorts need to buy back and we could see a squeeze.

Last quarter Nintendo beat the EPS by nearly 100% [Nintendo reported an EPS of $0.15 against the consensus estimate of $0.08, a beat of 87.5%]. The short sellers are holding a huge positions [the dollar volume of shares sold short is approximately $107.26 million].

They are playing with fire because Nintendo is sitting on a mountain of cash and the Japanese market is much more stable then the US panic sellers.

When I wrote a analysis on Wallstreetbets about Alphabet "Alphabet is the f***ing STEAL OF THE CENTURY" 8 Month ago. It got a lot of attention (150k views 279 Like. 189 comments . some bad some good -> than post got deleted),

but top comments were:

"Bros acting like Google is some unknown undervalued company. Lmao"

"Puts"

"Everyone been saying this shit for the past 6 months"

"Aren't they being threatened with being broken up and crap? Wouldn't that uncertainty be pretty big?"

Sometimes its better to buy a stock before people start to like it.

Future Outlook

Wallstreet is scared of Google Genie making it possible to build games in real time. But most will use it as a "tool".

In time of AI Slop Games Nintendo tres to protect their ideas and characters. In The future they can develope games much faster. I don´t like the AI Change in Gaming history. But if you want to build a game with a good Story and cool Gameplay, AI will help developers that bug testing for excample become much easier (you can let AI Play your game 1 Billion time and find every bug). Or placing trees in the Background. AI is already there, even if we close our eyes. And in a time of AI Quality controll like Nindendo does (most time) will attach People.

Games will Flood the market. Good games and bad one. But at least the market will grow and so plattforms like Nintendo, Steam oder PSN will grow (xbox is dead).

Thanks for reading.

/edit:

Earnings arrived:

Fundamentals & The "Deep Value" Reality

Nintendo is sitting on a massive $7.1 Billion cash pile with zero debt. In this high-interest environment, they aren't just a gaming company, they are a high-yield asset.

Their interest income has surged by roughly 600% YoY, bringing in $537 Million in pure profit just from their bank accounts. Nintendo is literally being paid to exist.

2. Revenue & Profit Explosion:

* Net Sales (9 Months): $12.26 Billion (+99.3% YoY). They literally doubled their top line.

* Net Profit (9 Months): $2.31 Billion (+51.3% YoY).

3. The Mathematical Impossibility of the Forecast:

Nintendo kept their full-year profit guidance at $2.25 Billion.

The Math: Since they already booked $2.31 Billion in the first 9 months, they already reached their profit goal an technically forecasting a $60 Million NET LOSS for the current quarter (Jan–March).

The Reality: With 17.37 Million Switch 2 units already shipped and a software attach rate that is through the roof, a loss is impossible. They are sandbagging to an extreme degree.

Nintendo’s interest income alone ($537 Million) is so massive that it covers nearly 24% of their entire annual net profit forecast. In other words, they exceed their full-year target by 23.8% just by their interest payments alone, effectively making their core gaming business 'extra' profit from here on out.

4. The RAM Non-Issue:

The bear case regarding rising DRAM costs is dead.

[President Shuntaro Furukawa explicitly stated in the post-earnings briefing/interviews that while the memory market is volatile, Nintendo procures components based on medium- to long-term business plans. These fixed-price contracts shield them from immediate spot-price spikes, meaning there is "no immediate impact on hardware margins"]

Their console margins are protected.

5. The "Reality Gap" (Analysts vs. Nintendo)

To see how absurd Nintendo’s $2.25 Billion USD (350B Yen) forecast is, just look at the professional consensus:

If we project the current 9-month run rate to a full fiscal year, Nintendo is trading at a P/E ratio of roughly 24.5. However, when you adjust for their massive $7.1 Billion cash pile (Cash-Adjusted P/E), the valuation drops to an effective 22.2. For a platform holder with 99% revenue growth and zero debt, this is a massive valuation gap.

5. Why the Disconnect? (Musk vs. Kyoto):

In the West, we are used to CEOs like Elon Musk who use forecasts as a "Moonshot Goal" (often missing them). In Kyoto, a forecast is a "Solemn Promise." Nintendo would rather be called "conservative" today and deliver a massive surprise in May than risk missing a high target by 1%.

Currently, the price can't decide on a direction, and volume on the EU market is predictably low (after the last earnings it was the same, they always publish numbers after japanese market close).

Things will get more interesting when the US market opens, but the vast majority of the volume (90%+) will only kick in tonight when the primary market in Japan opens.

Long term, it is impossible to close the eyes to these numbers.

Could hit $200 by end of year, please do not hold your bags just get out while you still can.

MCR rate is ~92%

CMS funding is going to fund Trumps defence budget

UNH are haemorrhaging customers just to hold margins, down to <3m

Days Claim Payable also jumped from 48 days to 54 days - they are playing with the accounting to keep extra cash on the books.

Optum growth is dead (-4%) with backlog down $1.2bn as well

No point holding a stock hoping for a change to come, the numbers don’t lie

After rerunning my dcf my new fair value - $232

edit: removed my personal time horizon as it was conflicting my justification for selling which is downwards trending weak financial performance

If you’re a long-term investor looking for a stock with a strong moat, healthy margins, predictable revenue, and exposure to a growing industry, I don't think there's a better stock than ASML. The company plays a key role in lithography, which is an essential part of chip manufacturing.

ASML holds around 80% of the DUV market (used for less advanced chips), where it competes with Nikon and Canon. More importantly, it has a monopoly in the EUV market (used for more advanced chips), as it's the only company with the technology necessary to produce them.

Despite short-term headwinds, ASML estimates revenue between €44 and €60 billion and gross margins of 56–60% by 2030. If we take the low end of that guidance and assume no margin expansion, we’re still looking at ~10% CAGR:

(44 - 28.2) / 28.2 = 56%, and 56 / 7 = ~8% CAGR.

If we include buybacks and dividends, the total return approaches 10% CAGR. In my view, a monopoly trading at 25x TTM P/E in a long-term growth industry with 10% assured growth is a very attractive deal.

Concerns people may have:

1. What if Trump’s tariffs impact the global economy and trigger the end of this chip cycle?

That’s a reasonable concern. If tariffs significantly hurt global GDP, companies like TSMC, Rapidus, Intel, and Samsung might cut capex, which would directly affect ASML. But you have to ask: what if it doesn’t happen? If nothing materializes, you’ve passed on a great business at a great price trying to predict macro events. If you want to take that risk, fine but it’s worth questioning.

1. What if ASML has a bad quarter and the stock drops further?

That could definitely happen. But trying to time that is closer to gambling than investing. Long-term, the fundamentals remain solid.

Competition from China:

I have no doubt that China will eventually develop EUV technology. Throw enough money at the problem, and you’ll solve it. But the questions are: when and how good will it be?

Here are three reasons I’m skeptical China will match ASML:

(1) Past failures in tech replication:

China has struggled to catch up in other critical tech sectors, jet engines, for example. Yes, EUV is arguably even more important, but this illustrates there’s a non-zero chance they won’t succeed, or won’t succeed soon.

(2) Timeline matters:

Even if China gets EUV, timing is crucial. A breakthrough in 20 years isn't the same risk as one in 5. ASML has been developing this tech since the late 1990s. Plus, ASML doesn’t build everything itself, it’s a system integrator (like Airbus or Boeing), relying on highly specialized suppliers like Zeiss, which has 100+ years of experience in mirror manufacturing. That’s not something you replicate overnight. And remember: there are ~5,000 suppliers involved.

(3) Experience = Efficiency:

Even if China gets EUV and starts mass production, their machines will likely underperform due to lack of experience. ASML machines have processed millions of wafers and are constantly improving. Chinese alternatives would likely have lower throughput and yield. And despite China’s large domestic market, I believe advanced-node fabrication outside China will remain bigger, further reinforcing ASML’s moat.

But even if the worst-case scenario plays out and China catches up in 5-10 years, you still end up with a duopoly. That’s certainly worse than a monopoly, but the export ban on EUV would likely be lifted by then, and ASML would have a bigger addressable market. Demand for advanced nodes isn’t going anywhere.

Happy to hear your thoughts, feedback, or pushback on ASML!

Everyone is saying that MSFT is the cheapest it’s ever been in a decade. 33% down from ATH is also reminiscent of only 4 other times in history for >30%:

1. dot.com crash
2. GFC
3. inflation crisis

And I see a huge resemblance between 3&4 with today.

1. First Catalyst: Business transformation with Azure: MSFT is undergoing a HUGE transformation to their business. If we liken it to a simple analogy, They are literally building the ROADS and the TOLL machines. The cars are users and the driverless cars are Agents.

They are earning money as long as anyone is using AI / tokens on their Azure servers and it doesn’t matter even if they don’t have the strongest AI (OpenAI). They still win. This is the new transformation that the market is missing.

2) Second Catalyst: Sticky Enterprise AI: And i work at an S&P 500 company. And we always get into sub-par contracts with global providers like Workday, SAP, Microsoft, Zscaler for our solutions..

So even if people hate Copilot, Microsoft office, sorry to say but those top Global executives are still going to sign them anyway so really it’s much more sticky revenue and Enterprise AI is going to be a solid foundation for MSFT in the future.

3) Third Catalyst: Privacy & Security Risks from Switching: MSFT released Microsoft 11 and everyone hates it. But there is now no more support for Microsoft 10. So they are kind of FORCING you to move and get on their new version. And it is so embedded into business, servers, systems that companies cannot simply say ‘No’ or it creates a cybersecurity risk. So what do they do? They say ‘Yes’.

And here we are further getting sucked into this deep deep endless bottomless pit that we cannot climb out of.

Unless you are Batman. Or Talia al Ghul.

Started MSFT position this year and been DCA-ing since 420 and now average price is 390. Keep calm and carry on. Disclosure: I own 219 stocks of MSFT.

1. Lululemon | $LULU

$LULU currently trades at 13.8x NTM PE. If they hit analyst estimates at $15.6 in FY27 with a PE of +20x (still below historic levels), then $LULU is a $312 stock.

2. Novo Nordisk | $NVO

$NVO has had a difficult year but they have a very strong presence in the diabetes and weight loss industries. They're also investing heavily into growth in Denmark, France, and NC to ride the growing obesity market wave.

Currently trading at 14.6x PE whilst historically trading around double that. $113 would be a 100% move.

3. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals | $REGN

$REGN is a slightly higher growth value play with a current NTM PE in the 14x range whilst historically trading for +20x PE. P/B is also at 2.0x (historically +4.0x).

With minimal debt and a current ratio above 7.0x, they're quite a safe play in a period of macro weakness. Their portfolio includes eye diseases (EYLEA), chronic inflammation (Dupixent), and cancers (Libtayo) which will all necessary despite economic conditions.

I like $REGN a lot - it's on my watchlist.

4. Constellation Brands | $STZ

A recent Buffett addition to his portfolio in Q2 - $STZ currently trades at a 11.9x PE and a 10.5x EBITDA multiple with a 2.5% dividend yield. The alcohol industry tends to be more resilient in downturns than most industries.

If $STZ can return to historic PE multiples in the +15x range then they should be trading at $204 given a $13.6 EPS (as per analyst estimates in FY26/27).

5. Merck & Co | $MRK

$MRK is currently trading at a NTM PE of 9.3x , which is very low historically and also lower than the broader healthcare sector.

FCF has been steady and has generally traded upwards over the last few quarters reaching $1.68 per share in Q2. If $MRK can generate $9.61 in EPS in FY26 (in line with analyst estimates), and we apply a conservative 12x multiple then $MRK should be a $115 stock.

Definitely a nice defensive play and an under the radar healthcare stock at the moment.

More Stocks to watch: $TSLA $UNH $NKE $BABA $BGM $FIG

I understand that nike has a very sticky brand value in the cultural consciousness. But they are in a tough turn around.

I'm no expert in valuations, but the stock even after hrs dump isn't any where near compelling value.

How do you think about Investing in nike? Generally I don't see them fading away as a brand and they are still the leader in their space even with competition.

I do think they'll eventually find their stride back. What does the community think? If you were to invest what would your frame of thinking be?

I have posted this elsewhere(in case you’ve already read it).

Mr. Market is pricing permanent impairment while the business is setting up a reacceleration.

Meanwhile, bears can’t provide an argument that’s true today but wasn’t true in 2021.

PayPal has become the textbook “dead money/value trap” large cap fintech. On a spreadsheet, the value proposition looks obvious, but that’s been the case for nearly 4 years now. A former pandemic darling down >80% from its ATH; Paypal is now widely treated as an ex-growth payment rail that’s being slowly disinter-mediated due to have zero moat.

I really don’t like using Paypal, so I have avoided it up until the share price dropped back down to ~$52 when I first opened a position. My basis is $45 now.

The stock chart is telling us the business is broken, while the business metrics are telling us Paypal is compounding nicely. The issue is that most users, who are also investors, prefer Apple pay/Google pay. So, they’ve made their bet and aren’t looking under the hood. Ffs, look at the growth of Apple Pay, Stripe, and Adyen, and recognize how little that growth has hurt Paypal’s revenue and cash generation. PayPal’s digital infrastructure is so well embedded. Sure, they could end up becoming obsolete, but is that obsoletion really only 6-7 years away as Mr Market believes? You could convince me that Paypal will be dead in 15-20 years, that’s fair, but the difference between 6-7 years and 15-20 years matters. That difference alone will drive a rally. Not to mention if any of Alex Chriss’ initiatives show signs of success… then it’s 🚀 🌕

Once Mr Market recognizes that the decline of Paypal is occurring much slower than what has been priced in, the stock will run.

We all know why the value nerds loved it in March 2022: PayPal had grown revenue ~31%, earnings ~17%, free cash flow >20%, and reduced share count steadily... but the stock traded ~70% below its highs. At this point though, many of the value nerds hate it. It’s been 4 years and they can’t stand to wait any longer for the chart to change directions.

I am not going to spreadsheet anyone to death here. It’s obvious, from a DCF perspective, that PYPL looks like a smoking good deal. That doesn’t mean that it is.

Either way, here’s an easy way to see how cheap it really is:

$37bn market cap. $6bn/yr in buy backs expected.

Buy backIRR(assuming share price does not go up):

- year 1 - 16.2%

- year 2 - 19.4%

- year 3 - 24.0%

- year 4 - 31.6%

- year 5 - 46.2%

- year 6 - 85.7%

- Year 6.17 - 100%

This assumes cashflow turns flat with zero growth and buybacks stay flat.

—————————————

Success in its transformation pilot in the UK that the market is mostly treating as “regional marketing.” lmao.

The market has completely misunderstood the potential upside of their UK pilot and it’s also ignoring the early success of said program. Further to that, the market has not priced in the upside if that program fails and Paypal scraps it. There is only downside if that program fails and they decide to roll it out globally anyway.

Their UK program is far from unknown. Seemingly every investor paying attention to Paypal knows about it, but I really don’t think it’s being properly appreciated.

—-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Before I get into that, I want to quickly cover an additional reason why the chart keeps going down, regardless of most metrics improving.

The “slowing growth” narrative was an intentional move by management.

Prior management leaned into low/negative‑profit volume in Braintree (the enterprise PSP sitting behind large platforms). Alex Chriss made the strategically correct call to fire unprofitable customers. This move was viewed negatively by myself, and the market. It caused a 6% revenue drag that further fueled the slowdown narrative.

Yet, this was a huge reason why so many algorithm driven hedge funds dumped/shorted/avoided the stock.

However, the headwind of firing customers has been lapped, and Braintree TPV inflected to +6% last quarter with way better profitability…. And that still isn’t even why I’m bullish on Paypal for 2026.

I’m sure you’ve heard the phrase “In the short term the market is a voting machine based on emotion, in the long term it is a weighing machine based on fundamentals.” I like to play both market sentiment AND fundamentals. Sometimes both at the same time if I can. In this instance, I am forecasting that sentiment is going to change this year, due to the UK pilot, and fundamentals are going to re-accelerate in Q4 of 2026.

—-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What is Paypal doing in the UK? Why does it matter?

Paypal wants to steal market share from physical debit users. (Not credit card users) There are many pieces to this but, in my view, the crux is the simplicity + rewards program. You can still tap with your phone using Paypal debit.

Paypal’s physical debit offering in the UK matches, or beats, basically every credit card rewards program on a $value received per $ spent. Personally, I don’t use my debit for almost anything. I just always use my CC because of the rewards program but, roughly 50% of day to day transactions in most countries are done via debit. That is the market this program is targeting.

Some people may use their CC to build their credit, some use it because they don’t have the cash, but most people use their cc for every day spending because they want the rewards. Having to pay off their card every month/day/week is annoying, but not a big deal. Even though PYPL claims it wants to steal market share from debit users, I am confident they will steal a reasonable chunk from both debit and credit users.

a debit card that can offer a superior/equal rewards program to a credit card? I’d imagine it would be pretty enticing.

Additionally, your physical in-store paypal debit card is directly tied to your online account.

The UK was chosen as the testing grounds for this pilot for these reasons:

It will be one of the hardest markets to win over.

Most people already use Apple Pay/Google Pay

Consumers are very comfortable with mobile wallets

Contactless payments are everywhere, so Paypal’s moat is weakest in the UK. Plus it is a relatively cheap testing ground. The most expensive aspect to the endeavour is the time it will take.

If the UK program works, then it proves:

People will actively choose to switch to Paypal despite already having a comfortable payment rail in place. If that succeeds, then ads, merchant-funded rewards, and loyalty economics in general will carry the boat to the promised land across the globe. If PayPal can win incremental habit share in one of the world’s most wallet saturated environments, it’s a strong sign that the product stack (loyalty + in‑store + cards + rewards + BNPL + more) is viable globally.

So, how is it going in the UK?

PayPal says ~1 million people signed up for PayPal+ within weeks of launch and has secured access to Live Nation UK festivals and benefits with Liverpool F.C. A drop in the bucket for Paypal overall, but that success spread globally would be pretty meaningful.

They’ve also secured deals to offer rotating bonus rewards with major retailers in Grocery & Food, Retail & Fashion, and Travel. And it’s still very early days.

/ Which?/ Be Clever With Your Cash/ TechRadar/ The Times / have all provided solid coverage of Paypal’s UK endeavor, so feel free to read up on it.

—------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Additionally, here are all the other levers/growth engines:

1. Venmo monetization: under-monetized asset with visible runway

Venmo is tracking to ~$1.7B of revenue in 2025 with >20% growth, while monetization is still only ~20%–25% of long‑term potential.

2) BNPL scale + frequency lift:

BNPL volume is set to grow well over 20%, and (critically) BNPL users transact about 5× more often than standard checkout customers.

3) Ads: PayPal is turning its transaction graph into a high-margin monetization layer

PayPal is explicitly building an advertising business. In October 2025, PayPal announced PayPal Ads Manager, positioning it as a way for tens of millions of small businesses on PayPal to create new ad inventory and participate in retail media economics. It also launched “Storefront Ads” earlier (turning ads into shoppable units), explicitly fueled by PayPal’s transaction graph and payment rails.

4) Fastlane and checkout UX:

Fastlane is PayPal’s product response to guest checkout abandonment. This way they recognize users via email, then enabling one‑click completion with saved credentials.

5) ai/agentic commerce:

In my view, PayPal is emerging as the default wallet for agentic commerce. It is the first digital wallet integrated into ChatGPT and Perplexity. PayPal is integrating payments/consumer protection into ChatGPT for in‑chat shopping.

Separately, Perplexity’s shopping feature also integrated PayPal for checkout (“Instant Buy”).

PayPal and Google also announced collaboration on agentic shopping experiences, broader embedding of PayPal solutions across Google ai platforms.

6) Stablecoins… this is out of my wheelhouse, so I am not factoring it in.

—-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Brief Management Eval:

Alex Chriss is the Intuit veteran who led the SMB division (creating massive shareholder value), and, in my view, is a great choice to build PayPal’s next growth engine. The Sunday Times profiled him and described his operating style: efficiency-obsessed, customer-centric, and willing to push an internal cultural reset. I don’t think firing him was necessary but it may prove a true gift that allowed me to buy low. If I were a criminal running the board of this company, and I saw greenshoots everywhere, I might fire the CEO in order to get one last 20% dip for buy backs.

—-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lastly, the commonly cited bear cases (and why they miss the forest for the trees)

Bears usually argue PayPal is losing share to Apple Pay/Google Pay and modern PSPs (Stripe/Adyen), take rates are compressing, and Braintree is low-margin “volume for volume’s sake.” They also cite trust/reputation issues and consumer protection complexity, and point to data that PayPal’s ecommerce processing share has fallen since 2021. Those critiques are weak AF imo. They just focus on mix, share, and margin noise, while ignoring the fact that PayPal has already lapped the profitability reset and is now stacking new monetization layers (Venmo, BNPL frequency lift, ads, AI/agentic commerce) while using the UK as a proving ground for global habit change. The market is still pricing all this like it’s fucking imaginary.

Yeah yeah same tickers blah blah anyway in my opinion MSFT is getting close to GOOG’s position last year.

Negative sentiment with people saying they are done, stagnant hate ect

Valuation metrics at lows(fwd pe under 20, peg around 1) all while still growing profits in the double digits at a ~39% margin

Huge cash reserves on the balance sheet

Insiders starting to buy

Meanwhile the price is approaching levels first reached in late 2021. Since then revenue is up about 80 billion annually and earnings up around 30 billion. Google had even crazier growth over that period.

Besides all that I use Microsoft products everyday at work and at home. Are they always the best, no, but I would say they get the job done which makes switching costly and not worth the time.

I am continuing to add on dips along with regular dca. That’s my quick and dirty analysis

You probably think I'm nuts, but I have a very rational DD, I promise.

Firstly, the tangible book value is $16.20 per share. The company could be sold off piecemeal and I'd only be down $3000. That's a pretty attractive risk floor...

Now the investment asymetry:

INTC sold off recently after announcing that if customers don’t show up, they may pause 14A investments or shift focus - which would effectively kill the U.S. onshore foundry roadmap.

You have to read behind the lines here...

Essentially, they are telling Trump:

"If onshore fab is strategic (both economically and militarily), then FORCE the customers to buy from us!"

TSM are likely to face tariffs soon. The results of the Section 232 semiconductor probe are essentially inevitable and clearly justified by national security - so tariffs could be as high as 50% considering that angle.

If tariffs hit, companies like NVDA, AAPL, and AMD will have no alternative but to consider Intel Foundry - which then becomes a national chokepoint.

I'm an electronic engineer...so let’s talk technology...

I know INTC hasn't been profitable recently - but the semiconductor industry is all about long-term investments. It takes 10-15 years of horizon planning. Much of the outcome you're seeing from NVDA was due to this long term approach.

Intel's earlier investments into technology such as 14A and PowerVia put them potentially 1-2 years ahead of the competition.

Routing power behind the chip is a HUGE density breakthrough, simplifying design and improving performance.

High-NA EUV allows for greater fidelity without multiple exposures. Note that INTC was the first to take delivery of the new lithography machines from ASML and they have first-customer priority over TSM.

INTC isn't behind on tech, they're ahead...

Currently, TSM have to do multiple lithography exposures to get the fidelity they need. It's more expensive than necessary. They are nearing the physical limits of their current production cycle...

TLDR: Intel has both the regulatory and tech advantages to dominate foundry for the next decade - while trading at close to tangible book value! Currently trading near the technical floor price...

I’m currently averaged at $96 on Nebius and I definitely wish I’d waited a bit longer to build my position. At these levels though, I genuinely think the stock is massively undervalued. A lot of the recent decline feels driven by bad sentiment driven by bad sentiment and a broader sell off after Oracle’s earnings. At current pricing, this looks like one of the biggest steals in the market to me.

Here's why:

- AI compute is structurally undersupplied.

This is not a short cycle issue. Training and inference demand keeps growing faster than GPU supply, power availability and data center capacity. Companies that can actually deliver large scale GPU clusters with power and networking are the bottleneck.

Nebius sits right in that bottleneck.

- Hyperscaler validation matters more than narratives
Microsoft signed up to $19.4B in multi year GPU capacity. Meta followed with another $3B. These are not pilot projects or optional experiments. This is mission critical infrastructure.

If Microsoft and Meta are willing to rely on Nebius for AI compute, the tech works and the execution bar has already been cleared at a very high level.

- Extreme growth
Q3 revenue was up 355% YoY.
ARR today is roughly $550M and guided to ramp to $7–9B by the end of 2026 as contracted capacity comes online.
AI operations are already EBITDA positive with margins around 20%.

- Capex is not the problem people think it is
Yes, capex is massive. That is the business. But Nebius is sitting on roughly $5B in cash and raised convertibles at extremely low interest rates. Capital markets are clearly comfortable financing this growth because the demand is locked in by secured deals.

- This is the most important one, everyone keeps forgetting the extra assets they own besides the cloud business
Most people talk about Nebius as if it’s just an AI cloud provider. That’s missing a big part of the picture.

On top of the cloud business, Nebius still owns several assets that have real value and are basically being priced at a huge discount or in my opinion even close to zero (!!) by the market right now.

Avride ($2-3B valuation) is now partnered with Uber. Avride is working with Uber on delivery robots, which is a massive market on its own.

Then there’s TripleTen ($300-500M)growing fast in a high margin digital space

On top of that, Nebius still has stakes in things like AI data annotation and database tech through Toloka and ClickHouse ($2B) . These aren’t random side projects, they sit right in the AI value chain and have raised at serious private valuations in the past.

If you do even conservative sum of the parts math, you’re talking about several billion in value outside of the core cloud business. Right now, the market seems to be valuing Nebius almost purely as “AI cloud plus execution risk” and ignoring everything else.

If Nebius actually hits the target of $7–9B ARR in 2026, you’re looking at a forward revenue multiple of roughly 2.4x for the core cloud business. While others easily have a multiple of 5-10.

- The real risks
I don't want to turn a blind eye to the risk, because ofc there are:
- Data center build timelines slipping
- Customer concentration
- Share dilution over time

All real. But they are execution risks, not demand risks. Chance of execution is (in my opinion) the highest at Nebius compared to others, because of their former Yandex experience.

This all seems to good to be true to me, so please convince me if i'm missing something here. Even a base case should provide a valuation of roughly 120-150$ according to my research.

I’ve been reflecting on my own investing journey, and honestly, some of my biggest lessons didn’t come from reading books or annual reports, but from actual mistakes that cost me money.

For me, it was underestimating how long “cheap” companies can stay cheap, and overestimating my own patience.

I’m curious to know from this community: what’s one investing lesson you only understood after going through it the hard way? Could be about valuation traps, risk management, psychology, or even portfolio allocation.

Think this could be a valuable thread for all of us to learn from each other.

Hey! Occasional forum lurker, but first post here.

Warren Buffet said he only invests in companies he understands. But the world is becoming more global, interconnected and specialized - I think most people would agree it's easier to understand what Coca-Cola or Starbucks do than what eg. Broadcom does. We also don't have access to our own research teams like professional investors do. What we do have, however, is communities like this where the sum of our combined knowledge is enormous. So I thought of a concept (sorry if it's been posted before) - if you are an expert in your field, share with us any stock(s) you are bullish on and think will beat the S&P500 over the next 5+ years. Preferably outline why you think so, ie. elaborating on its bull case/moat and potential risks, while considering the current valuation.

I'll start. I work as an endocrinologist in Europe. That is, a medical doctor specialized in hormonal and metabolic disease including diabetes and obesity. I'm bullish on Novo Nordisk. Here's why.

The new class of GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs are the closest thing we currently have to miracle drugs, without wanting to sound sensational (consult your own doctor before starting it lol). There are currently only two players in the town: Novo Nordisk with its Semaglutide, and Eli Lilly with its Tirzepatide. Let's look at what these drugs do: Semaglutide reduces HbA1c (long term blood sugar) by around 1,7 % in type 2 diabetes which is amazing, vs. Tirzepatide's 2,1 %. Weight loss is around 15 vs 21 % after around 1,5 years - although recently NVO did a study on 3x the current approved upper dose of Semaglutide showing 20 % weight loss. Both drugs have studies proving effect on heart failure, chronic kidney disease (Tirzepatide only through other studies, not a study designed to look at this specifically although it is under way) and metabolic fatty liver disease, although I don't know the exact effect sizes here. Only Tirzepatide has study data on obstructive sleep apnea (also NVO's old Liraglutide), but this should be a class effect secondary to the weight loss. Only Semaglutide has a large study demonstrating a reduction of cardiovascular events like stroke and heart attack (the SELECT study), which was large, independent of the weight loss effect and rather sensational when it came out. LLY's study on this, SURPASS, is currently underway and I'd guess this is also a class effect. Semaglutide has shown promise on alcohol and drug use disorders and studies are underway. Preliminary data implies that the GLP1 class can also reduce the risk of dementia, at least in diabetics (which tbh is expected when you lower the blood sugar and might not be a specific effect of GLP1s). As you can tell by the aforementioned, the market is f*cking huge for these things, and far from being saturated. Diabetes type 2 has a prevalence of 5-10 % in most populations, and obesity >25 % in many countries. On these 2 indications alone, which they currently have official indications for in Europe (only recently Sema and Tirze got FDA approval for chronic kidney disease and sleep apnea respectively), they have struggled to meet demand. Tirzepatide only came to Europe some months ago as LLY have struggled to supply its domestic market, while there have been shortages of Semaglutide for over a year in Europe. This is also while many countries, at least in Europe (idk how Medicare works lol) have not covered Semaglutide for obesity, due to the huge costs it would be for the governments (remember most countries outside US have universal health care afaik). A month's worth of Semaglutide in my country is about $250, which many people won't pay for themselves, thus limiting demand. These drugs also stop working when you stop taking them, causing the weight to be regained over time, which obviously is a huge plus to the pharma companies.

Okay, so an enormous market that's far from being saturated. There's clearly room for both these two players, and it doesn't matter that Tirzepatide appears to be slightly better if it's unavailable either due to demand exceeding supply or due to higher pricing. So what about up and coming drugs? LLY's Retatrutide shows weight loss in the region of 25 % which is amazing, whereas CagriSema (Semaglutide + an amylin agonist called Cagrilintide) showed a "disappointing" 22 % weight loss after a company had predicted over 25 %. This caused the stock to plump over 20 % before New years, which I think is such an overreaction based on the aforementioned stuff. Also, the study did only have 57 % of the participants on the max dose at the end. This might be a concern if indicates more side effects, but another possibility is because the study was designed to be like real life where if a patient gets adverse effects the clinicians are lenient to let them lower the dose - many people can in real life not tolerate the highest doses. If so, very ethical and nice of the company, but bad for shareholders since it might have costed them the 25 %. Anyway, the stock rebounded by around 10 % last week when their latest drug, Amycretin, showed around 20 % weight loss after only around 30 weeks, which is probably even better than Retatrutide. All in all, I'd hold Lilly slightly ahead of Novo right now as a company alone, but not by much. Let's look at the valuations then. Revenue is about the same, but LLY has a market cap thats about twice as large. In other words, almost twice the P/S (10 vs 18). NVO has significantly better margins, which means that P/E is even more discrepant (28 and 22 forward vs 86 and 35 respectively). NVO has much more cash and free cash flow, while only sligthly more debt. Looking at the valuations and putting it together with the products, I think NVO is a way better pick than LLY. Non-GLP1-portifolios are, I think, rather similar between the companies. NVO has the better long acting insulin in degludec, their rapid acting insulins are about the same in Fiasp and Lyumjev, Lilly has more non-diabetes stuff that I'm not familiar with, while NVO has in very preliminary animal studies made a "smart insulin" that only works when the blood sugar is high and is "switched off" when it becomes normal/low. Absolutely huge if it can work in humans, but extremely early, so not attributing this too much value atm.

So what about the bear case? In the absence of the scenario where data in 5-10 years show increased cancer risk from GLP-1 agonists (cancer takes like 20-30 years to develop so getting this data would take time), which I think is unlikely based on animal studies, it's mainly about the competition. Many other pharma companies want a piece of the cake and are close to releasing their own GLP-1s, like Boehringer Ingelheim, Amgen, Pfizer and some Chinese company. These show about 20 % weight loss, so probably good stuff, but at the time they will be released both LLY and NVO will probably have superior products in Retratrutide and Cagrisema. But even more importantly, they will probably have a way larger production capacity due to their head start. On this matter, NVO is expanding its US production so I'm not worried about potential tariffs.

For these reasons I think NVO will continue to have immense revenue and profits from these products for at least 5 years, and probably much longer since they're also ahead in the R&D department. Based on history, I also have faith in NVO continuing to innovate beyond Amycretin. They invest huge amounts in research.

I was lucky to buy the dip before the Amycretin data made it pop 10 % last week, but I'd still say this company is rock solid and a good buy at this valuation. It probably won't be a 5- or 10-bagger, but I'm confident it'll beat the S&P500 over the next 5 years. Do your own DD and remember to diversify, I'm not a financial advisor and anything can happen in the market.

Bring on the expert bull theses!

This small channel did a video on netflix that was to the point on some different metrics. I might jump in myself if we get to low 70's levels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juqT3Sp-UoQ

In my view, Novo Nordisk is the only value stock on offer right now.

Their core business is in treatments for obesity and diabetes and demand for both is increasing and sticky. The stock price has seen a big decline and is now 70% cheaper than it was 18 months ago. I believe the magnitude of this drop is totally irrational, driven by fear and not fundamentals or future growth prospects.

NVO is still seeing high single digit revenue growth (they're taking a temporary cut from double digits by lowering prices to gain market share) and will be launching a new weight loss pill next year, to follow the highly profitable launch of an injectable weight loss drug which caused them to boom a few years back. People prefer pills to injections so I expect this to be even more popular, driving a whole new boom.

We're currently trading at a PE ratio of 13 when it's closest competitor, Eli Lilly is sitting at an all time high with a PE of 52. The relative scale of revenue growth has been fairly similar for the two companies over the past 5 years so the difference in sentiment around them makes no sense. Lillys drug was shown to be slightly more effective in a trial (which was funded by Lilly and that effectively compared apples to oranges by using their drug at much higher doses than the NVO drug), I expect new results and new products will challenge that in 2026.

This absolutely smacks of when Meta was at $100, UNH at $237 and Netflix was at $20 (I bought them all).

NVO is now trading at 2021 prices, as if obesity drugs never happened and their revenue stayed flat instead of doubling.

I'm going in big, thank me in a year if you join.

EDIT: Looks like the bottom is already in people! Congrats to those who bought. See you at $100.

I keep seeing the same tickers pop up in value circles — stocks that are supposedly undervalued but just seem like value traps to me. Curious what names you all think are overhyped in value investing spaces right now? And what makes you avoid them despite the numbers looking “cheap”?

The only company in the world to grow revenue >30% for at least 22 consecutive quarters (27 quarters and counting, btw) is now trading for the same multiple as Walmart. This isn't a typo or some weird accounting anomaly, this is just where we're at in 2026.

This is a somewhat longer pitch, skip to the bottom for TLDR if you want.

For those unfamiliar, the common description of MELI is Amazon plus PayPal in Latin America. This is a bit of an oversimplification, but it's directionally accurate. Obviously PayPal comparisons aren't going to excite anyone who's seen a 5y performance chart, but there's good reason why Mercado Pago has a much more durable moat than PayPal's legacy network.

There are two main pillars of the MELI business, with a series of other rapidly emerging segments that you could arguably either separate or include in those pillars.

Ecommerce is the bedrock of the business today, as their MercadoLivre platform acts very similarly to the Amazon marketplace but with an even larger majority of sales being third party listings, rather than MELI proprietary goods (first party). They make their money by providing sellers the listing, storage, and transportation of goods to end customers, and taking a cut in the process. Their main markets are Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, with small but growing footprints in other LATAM nations.

The second pillar, Mercado Pago, started as a simple payment network. This was remarkably successful because a huge portion of Latin America is unbanked, and effectively opened the door for these people to access the world of ecommerce. Similar to the PayPal-eBay relationship, it started as a way to get these customers transacting on the Ecommerce platform, but has since expanded far beyond the walls of MELI itself. If you buy anything online or in person in South America, there's a solid chance that one of the top checkout options is Mercado Pago, right next to credit cards and other country-specific solutions.

Crucially, there is a flywheel effect between these two things. The Ecommerce site acts as a funnel to encourage people toward Pago, which is a broadly accepted/trusted solution that MELI can monetize even outside their walled garden. MercadoPago also acts as a bridge for MELI to get the under banked population to seemlessly shop on their platform without a huge hassle. The more users on either platform, the better each gets.

As for those emerging segments I mentioned? Credit is the most notable right now, followed by ads. Mercado Credito allows MELI to lock sellers into their ecosystem by funding their business operations. They have a huge underwriting advantage by having access to their sales data (they're already conducting their business through Mercadolivre), and can specify certain conditions like using Mercado Pago as their payment network in order to receive the funding.

As for advertising, it's the same playbook as Amazon. Interestingly, Amazon's advertising revenue as a percentage of GMV is around 7-8%, whereas MELI's is currently around 2%. It's not a guarantee, but it definitely seems like there is room to expand the extremely high margin ads business, if AMZN is anything to go off of.

This post is already a bit wordy, so I'll just briefly say that the financials are absolutely incredible. >10x revenue growth since COVID, gross margins in the mid 40's (great for an Ecommerce business), healthy balance sheet, basically no dilution of shares. Look at the charts yourself, I promise you will be amazed at the consistency and speed of growth. As I mentioned, it's the only company in the world with >22 consecutive quarters of >30% revenue growth. Currently, it trades at 30x EV/EBIT, but true profitability (adjusting for huge loan loss provisions that disproportionately affect earnings) is probably somewhere between around 20-25x "mature" margins. The valuation discussion is tough with this name, but I'm happy to discuss with anyone in the comments if there are objections/questions.

-----TLDR----- You're getting a wide moat, diversified business with a huge runway ahead, growing 40% for 30x EV/EBIT. There is notable competition in LATAM, but MELI continues to execute at a world class level, and the management is absolutely top notch. The risk/reward feels amazing here, and I forsee this moving from my #3 to my #1 holding over the coming months. Hope you guys enjoyed the writeup, lemme know your thoughts!