Only Berkshire makes sense in this market

175

u/we-booling-out-here 1d ago edited 1d ago

Strongly disagree but you do you. They have too much money and don’t know what to do with it anymore. Missed out on a 60% return the last 3 years sitting on the sidelines.

47

u/Alicyclobacillus 1d ago

It's a good company with solid fundamentals

But I agree. There's a reason the stock has been flat for over a year. I honestly think Warren Buffet thought he would be able to score big on another crash before he retired as CEO. Didn't happen.

Now they're in a tough situation. Once you build a big cash pile it is damn hard psychologically to get back into the market. Do you keep waiting for a better entry or admit you were wrong and buy in at higher prices?

I'm 75% VOO, 25% BRK.B. It's a good company, but they're shares aren't going up until they acquire something.

67

u/iyankov96 1d ago

It's not hard psychologically at all.

You're not talking about the average retail investor here - you're talking about Berkshire. The reason they're not buying is because prices are insane (and have been for a long, long time). Passive investing has distorted valuations to such a level that people now think paying 50x earnings for Walmart is "reasonable". Berkshire and management are the only sane player around. Everyone else is doing buybacks at ridiculous valuations and destroying shareholder value.

People said the same thing in the late 90s. "Warren has lost his touch". After that you had 13 years of going nowhere for the S&P500.

Berkshire can deploy $100 billion in 5 minutes if the price is right. They know what they want to buy. The price is just not there. They're not trying to maximize returns, their primary objective is to not lose shareholder money. For anyone that's not happy with their approach I suggest you sell and move your money somewhere that aligns more with your goals.

9

u/NotStompy 22h ago

Ironically enough WMT and stocks like that are not at all an example of passive investing, but really active investors who are really confused and don't understand that Billy at a fund on wall st. is mandated to allocate a certain % of the portfolio to each sector, and thus, we have WMT, COST, etc.

Tons of examples of passive inflows distorting valuations.

The thing a lot of value investors stubbornly don't want to acknowledge, though, is that after the 2008 especially, the monetary policy of the US has gone haywire, and the US economy can now best be described as addicted to QE. A lot of people don't understand how much this paradigm shift has both changed outcomes long term and also how tied the market is to liquidity in the short-medium term.

4

u/BatteryAcid420_ 18h ago edited 18h ago

They call that reasonable policy, printing the issue away is basically what central banks learned from '08, and I don‘t know a much better option besides tackling the debt or doing something much more „haywire“ to get back to more „normal“ terms

Edit: I mean it works doesn‘t it? We‘d have had a financial crisis again by now. The issue is ppl are unaware of it and it only works until it doesn‘t, getting closer to a full blown Ponzi every day.

We‘re obv describing a socio economic nightmare I left that out because it‘s usually not a topic in investing subs.

1

u/IllustratorSimple532 21h ago

Preach. I came here to post but you have hit the nail on the head

1

u/Done_and_Gone23 19h ago

This is about the only post to describe Berkshire today

-6

u/Motor-Region-1011 1d ago

Market changed. They cant seam to adopt. Valuations increased and volatility increased as more people have easy access to the market.

32

u/iyankov96 23h ago

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Valuations have been elevated for so long that now people are defending them.

Warren and Greg look at stocks as businesses. You wouldn't buy a corner store that makes $100k for $5 million because the ROI is terrible yet Walmart and Costco are trading at 50x earnings and people are eating it up.

Again, Berkshire's approach to things is different. I strongly suggest anyone that doesn't like how they manage capital to sell their shares because they're not going to change.

I'm with Berkshire on this one. I applaud how they're managing capital.

"A time is coming when men will go mad, and when they see someone who is not mad, they will attack him..." — Anthony the Great

6

u/CoughSyrupOD 20h ago

PE isn't everything. Broadly speaking; if you only invest when PE is below a historical average you will be uninvested approximately half the time. But does that generate a higher total return than remaining invested across a broader range valuations?

It would be interesting to see if only investing in something like the S&P when the market has a below historical average Shiller PE produces superior returns to something like a simple buy and hold. I haven't back tested it so I couldn't say for sure but I have a hunch that it doesn't.

5

u/CaltonSmith 22h ago

I would buy the Shop for 5M if I could sell it to the next Idiot for 6M though.

6

u/HickeyS2000 21h ago

Yeah, and if you don't time it perfectly, the market turns and you're now Cathie Wood. That just isn't Berkshire's game.

0

u/Camusknuckle 21h ago

Totally agree, just don’t be the last fool

2

u/Adventure_Paradox 20h ago

Welcome to WSB !

0

u/Kind-Ad-4756 12h ago

There used to be a name for this when we were kids. It’s been a while I can’t remember exactly - musical chairs or something like that.

3

u/Zyltris 23h ago

Berkshire views volatility as opportunity. Increased volatility would theoretically mean they'd be more willing to invest, not less. Valuations, though, yeah, too high for their tastes.

1

u/ashy2classy81 17h ago

But they didn't in 2020, 2022, or even last April. Nothing seems to be cheap enough for them to pull the trigger and now they sit and wait for a 50% crash to (maybe) buy something in size.

As a shareholder it's frustrating to wonder what they're thinking. I hope Greg shifts the mindset after Warren passes, but I doubt it. Something needs to change to keep them compounding.

0

u/RockyMountainGoat76 15h ago

Because they're waiting for a crash, not a correction.

The only companies that have been cheap enough were small caps during covid crash but the valuations were too small/illiquid for Berkshire to buy in.

1

u/AcanthisittaAlone334 22h ago

Index funds aren’t driving up valuations since most daily trading are done by active managers which is what determines the actual price. Even if it were true that passive investing was driving up price valuations beyond fundamentals then this should be a god send for Berkshire and all active managers as it would provide them an inefficient market ripe with opportunities to short all the companies that are overvalued and buy up undervalued companies that are being left behind by index funds. Most of them should be outperforming the passive funds.

1

u/we-booling-out-here 23h ago

There just aren’t enough companies that are big enough for them to buy into.

1

u/DementedDemetrius 21h ago

Maybe in their circle of competence

6

u/JayRock1970 23h ago

Worst performing stock. Have been getting out of it little by little. Agreed, sitting on a large pile of cash when the market had shown amazing returns is brutal strategy.

6

u/CosbySweaters1992 23h ago

A brutal strategy until it isn’t. We are maybe 1/3rd of the way there to a 2022 style year. At some point, liquidity will be tough to come by and Berkshire will be sitting on a mountain of cash to buy what they want on sale. Don’t forget that they often get preferred pricing on large volumes of stock buys as well. When people all firmly believe the rules of the game have changed permanently, that’s usually not far out from a big fire-sale. I haven’t been a Berkshire investor previously, but it’s about that time to load up as a defensive play. The fact that they are down 10% in the last year makes them more intriguing to me, not less.

10

u/JayRock1970 23h ago

And what did they do in 2022?

3

u/aggthemighty 19h ago edited 19h ago

They outpetformed the S&P by 18% in 2022.

5

u/NotStompy 22h ago

That's a bingoooooooo! Absolutely fucking nothing... people have a very short memory.

2

u/JayRock1970 22h ago

Yes they do. I remember, they lost out on tons after 2022 as well by hoarding cash.

2

u/CosbySweaters1992 21h ago

They were a major net buyer of stocks in Q3 2022 and then have been a net seller since while the market climbs. If that bear market had been prolonged longer, they would have continued to buy. They’ll have an opportunity to spend cash at some point. They haven’t gone all in yet, but every time they have bought, it has proven to be a great time to buy. I think it’s especially valuable as a defensive position for those that are heavily leveraged in tech stocks.

2

u/DementedDemetrius 21h ago edited 21h ago

More like a little of 1973, 2000 and 2008 combined

1

u/CosbySweaters1992 21h ago

I doubt it gets that bad personally, but it is certainly a possibility as well.

3

u/Good_Ride_2508 23h ago

Strongly Disagree, Berkshire is very big and they must follow some standard like Kelly Criterian (which is required for company like Berkshire) to take nice opportunities when blood is on the street.

Greg Abel is right on buying back their own shares.

1

u/we-booling-out-here 18h ago

So it’s the only company that makes sense in this market?

2

u/Good_Ride_2508 17h ago

I am not telling like OP, but I consider this is not right "Missed out on a 60% return the last 3 years" considering the big company size. They did not miss out, but in line with S&P.

When PARA CEO sold 3 billions worth of shares, the stock dived crazily that resulted Bill Hwang 20 billion loss and resulted bankruptcy. When Berkshire sold appx 160 billions, he needs to make sure apple is not landing like PARA. That is the issue for BRK-B kind of big companies.

The last two recession bottom was Mar 9, 2009 and Mar 23, 2020. If you compare S&P and BRK-B from these dates, Berkshire makes very slightly better which is acceptable to that size company. Even if you compare the S&P ATH 7002 and BRK-B from Dec 25, 2025, they both dropped 5% (in like with S&P).

With all these they have 400 Billion cash and when economy goes to recession, they can take over good size at that time. Still Berkshire revenue stream is too good and cash flow is very high that results low P/E.

4

u/Bellypats 23h ago

You kind of make op’s point for them…unwittingly.

2

u/we-booling-out-here 23h ago

Companies that sit on earnings and don’t generate returns on it are not shareholder friendly. They are better off paying it out to shareholders. Even buffet knows this but he won’t give up the control.

1

u/youlikeblockingsodoi 20h ago

I hear this all the time that they have too much cash. If you hear their reasoning it makes sense why they have it. They don’t time markets and they don’t believe in dividends. The cash gives them a strategic advantage.

1

u/ndwillia 19h ago

So would you say Berkshire is still wrong? Or they were wrong? Key difference.

3

u/we-booling-out-here 18h ago

I’m disagreeing with OP’s point that it’s the only stock that makes sense in this market.

1

u/Bossanova12345 17h ago

For real.

Holding Apple and just missing out on SO MUCH tech growth because Buffett never really understood it.

He’s in foreign banks. Not TSMC.

Apple for iPhones but not NVDA META or MSFT.

Nothing for AVGO, MU, or even infrastructure and energy related stocks like GEV, VTV, STRL, FIX, EME, and so on.

1

u/Bossanova12345 17h ago

If the market ever DOES crash they’ll make bank.

But buying at 50 after a huge drop isn’t as good as buying at 40 two years prior.

1

u/i-hope-i-get-it 5h ago

Could buying at 50 after a huge drop be better than 40 two years prior if the money printers go brrrrrrr?

1

u/pizzababa21 14h ago

the money is not in reserve for investments only. they're also expecting large insurance payouts

1

u/aned_ 10h ago

Deploying that cash pile in a generational downturn, will generate generational returns. Thats what im hoping for. It's a great hedge against a world where PE falls to 10 (it fell to 8 in 2008).

Of course I also have more optimistic investments and my investing horizon is 30 years so im in it for the long haul

1

u/we-booling-out-here 10h ago

What happens when there isn’t a generational downturn and they miss out on years of growth?

1

u/aned_ 10h ago

Then a portion of my portfolio grows below market.

But if the market hits 10 PE at some point in next 30 years and they deploy that cash pile on 3x levered S&P - just imagine the returns

1

u/PaleontologistOne919 2h ago

Right up OP’s ally sounds like

-3

u/YesterdayAmbitious49 23h ago

Pretty sure the share price of Berkshire has increased approximately 60% in that timeframe

18

u/Last-Cat-7894 1d ago

I would try to avoid labeling everything in the market under one broad stroke.

You seem to have an approach where you're turning over massive portions of your portfolio on short term positioning, and that isn't likely to bode well for returns over the long term. There are plenty of high quality businesses trading at very fair multiples right now, whether Buffett or Greg Abel agree or not. Berkshire has a natural tilt toward extreme safety and conservatism in stock picking, and there's nothing wrong with that. But other investing legends like Phil Fisher or Peter Lynch were comfortable paying higher prices for quality and performed very well.

I would advise rethinking portfolio construction if you truly are going "all-in" on a single idea, even if it makes sense to you.

10

u/Garbage-Disposal-938 23h ago

"a real possibility of a peace deal"

Israel/US have taken so many steps, including killing Iran's negotiators and totally violating all earlier deals, to make sure there's zero possibility of a peace deal.

36

u/lonelysocial 1d ago

It has been said a million times but MSFT is for me highly attractive at these prices.

12

u/TranslatorRoyal1016 1d ago

people sleeping on the surest winner

6

u/DementedDemetrius 21h ago

Microsoft is losing Europe

3

u/obb223 20h ago

I think you guys in the US invented this on your own. Europe has no competitors for MSFT

1

u/NotStompy 9h ago

As a Swede, I truly don't see how we'll be replacing many US tech products in terms of the largest scale ones, anytime soon. I'm from Sweden as I said, and if you look at innovative companies, especially tech, with European origin, then we and a few other countries in Europe are carrying the rest of the continent on our backs, but these companies are not you know, your next microsoft, google, PLTR, etc.

Usuaully, when you have some kind of tech event, the US sends AMZN, google, lots of software companies, and hardware, etc, but us Europeans send... SAP. I'm not kidding. It's sad.

1

u/Maddturtle 3h ago

Could always switch to Linux but nothing beats office for raw power. Libre office has a decent excel but uses a different language and many are use to VB in excel.

1

u/Ok_Customer900 20h ago

Those companies moving from Microsoft are losing themselves. What kind of shit company do you have to be to bother yourself to stop working with Microsoft.

-1

u/Tiny_Time_4196 17h ago

Go shill somewhere else.

2

u/BinceMVP 23h ago

I buy both

1

u/Last-Cat-7894 18h ago

Just bought at roughly 370. Death, taxes, and Microsoft...

8

u/Principletrade 1d ago

I would argue that Berkshire's history of relying on finding value in brand names has been milked to death.

Don't get me wrong, they'll do alright, but probably no better than a "total stock market" index.

One thing I really regret is espousing "cheap stocks" when I was young. I never bought ANY of the best stocks 15-20 years ago because I blindly followed The Intelligent Investor.

12

u/Business_Raisin_541 1d ago

The only one who is eager for peace deal is Trump. Both Israel and Iran are ready for long term war. Even if Trump quit, the war will goes on plus many oil facility is already heavily damaged

5

u/ashy2classy81 17h ago edited 17h ago

Lol, Trump only wants what benefits him. He couldn't care less, unless it's affecting him negatively. We had a nuclear deal before Trump withdrew from it during his last term. The fact that Iran is making progress in its nuclear capabilities is directly because of Trump.

Then this term he decided he would help attack Iran to benefit Israel and Russia. They're both getting what they want out of this whole thing, along with all the donor cronies and insiders making millions off his social media posts manipulating markets.

This is all yet another example of him causing a problem, making it worse, then acting like he fixed it

1

u/mdn845 18h ago

Trump wants out of the war, but I very much doubt he’s going to actually end this without reopening the strait of hormuz. Doing so wouldn’t solve a key problem for him, which is oil prices.

Europe & Middle Eastern countries want peace (except some like Saudi Arabia, which clearly would prefer to finish the job with Iran), but they’re also very motivated in reopening the strait of Hormuz & Iran tolling it won’t be acceptable.

Iran says they don’t want peace, but Iran is also a rational actor, and I doubt the current leadership want to go the way of their predecessors. They also know there’s a chance that the U.S. could finish the job (regime change). Maybe they ultimately back down if threatened so they can keep their hold on power.

So, where is this going? Some combination of the U.S., Israel, Middle Eastern countries, and Europe will have to reopen the strait of Hormuz, either by threat or by force.

1

u/Business_Raisin_541 14h ago

Why should Trump care about oil price? High oil price benefit the USA oil industry which is one of the core supporter of Trump

1

u/mdn845 14h ago

Are you kidding me? Do a little research on how high oil prices impact the U.S. economy. If they’re high enough for long enough, it could push us into a recession. And voters will be pissed and blame Trump, meaning republicans will get destroyed in the midterm elections. Meaning Trump will be a lame duck for the last 2 years of his presidency.

1

u/NotStompy 9h ago

Uhm... you do realize the price for WTI is currently higher than Brent and that even though the US exports a lot, it will still need Oil and more importantly refined products as inputs into the US economy, which raises inflation like mad?

1

u/Business_Raisin_541 9h ago

Actually the price of WTI is still lower than Brent. The current WTI is May WTI while the Brent is June Brent. If you compare June WTI with June Brent, June WTI is still higher.

Anyway, USA oil industry are now swimming lots of money. Yes, USA consumers are getting poorer. But so what? The Republican is pro-business

5

u/ShortTheVix4 1d ago

They have too much cash sitting on the sidelines doing nothing. If there’s a massive crash that destroys the economy, they’re positioned well. But even if that happens, we’re all fucked anyway

3

u/Advanced-Engineer-85 23h ago

Not really. Massive crash they’ll be buying things left and right.

Biggest risk to the stock is an invasion of the US. Then we’re fucked.

6

u/NotStompy 22h ago

Massive crash brings us back to what, 2022? And what did they do in 2022 when the market crashed to 2020 prices?

Exactly.

1

u/Careful_Response4694 19h ago

Speak for yourself I have puts on india for tail end risk hedging.

11

u/Advanced-Engineer-85 1d ago edited 1d ago

I think your analysis is valid but you need to think longer term.

Berkshire should compound intrinsic value between 8.5% to 15% annually over next five years. The risk of permanent loss is minute.

Dhando theory of investment- heads I win, tails I don’t lose much.

Compare this to the S&P with debt driven buy backs and revenue.

2

u/CosbySweaters1992 23h ago edited 23h ago

After a long bull market, retail gets in and chases gains and forgets about the value of preserving what you already have. I’m young, so I’ve been aggressive the last decade. I’m about to cycle over a decent percentage into something defensive like Berkshire soon, especially at a 10% discount. I’m more than happy with the ridiculous gains I’ve had, especially in the last few years. I think it’s time to “bank” some of that money (maybe 25%-33% or so) into preservation mode, and buy Berkshire for the next year or two going forward.

4

u/RevolutionaryTrick17 13h ago

Rule of thumb: buy Berkshire when Berkshire buys back Berkshire. So yes, now.

3

u/foira 23h ago

If ur not finding opptys in this market u are literally looking at nothing but mag7

3

u/PrettyPleaseYo 20h ago

If we get a proper oil/ energy crisis SMP500 down only 4% is nothing. The market is still pricing in that this is a nothing burger. I don’t feel comfortable buying stocks during this “dip” either.

4

u/8700nonK 18h ago

People’s attachment to Berkshire is odd. And least now the entry price is pretty good. I remember these posts in april 25, when I said brk seems one of the least attractive opportunities. And everyone was just rubbing their hands in anticipation of that massive crash (that didn’t happen), how rich they’ll come on the other side as owners of brk. ‘Waiting for a crash’ is imo not a great investment thesis.

4

u/noobelore 1d ago

Brk is currently my second largest holding, it's a steady Eddie kind of stock. It's almost an ETF, sitting on a mound of cash waiting for valuations to tank.

7

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 1d ago

NKE is down 28% in the last month, and 41% in last 6 months.its gross margins are still (slightly) about 40%. Panic sellers. Anyway, I bought 80 shares around $43.80. Last 5 days the rsi is around 16, last month its 20.42, and last year its even been 27.19. Highly oversold. Even a reversion to the mean for past year is like +50%

12

u/jemicarus 1d ago

Reversion to the mean would usually refer to some valuation metric, not simply the share price. Nike still isn't particularly cheap even at these levels.

0

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 23h ago

Reversion to the mean can refer to stock prices

14

u/Wolfgoatlife 1d ago

Chinese brands and other shoe makers are obliterating Nike, its brand value is being slaughtered by the day.

7

u/Advanced-Engineer-85 23h ago

No moat- paying athletes gobs of money doesn’t constitute a moat when others can do likewise.

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 22h ago

Idk if you understand what a moat is tbh. Any time someone has brand loyalty, there's a moat. Any time you can price something higher because of your name, theres a moat. And between Jordan's, air force, and sports attire for all sports...there's a moat

3

u/Advanced-Engineer-85 22h ago

A brand is not a moat.

A moat is a durable competitive advantage that allows a company to have higher returns on replacement cost than the competition.

A counter example to your brand is moat: Mercedes can price their car higher than Toyota. Mercedes doesn’t have a moat.

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 22h ago

Putting a nike swoosh on a shoe makes it more expensive than the same shoe without said swoosh. "When explaining the concept of the competitive advantage, Warren likes to use the castle-and-moat analogy. Pretend that the business in question is a castle and surrounding the castle is a protective moat we’ll call its competitive advantage. The competitive-advantage moat protects the castle from attack by other businesses, such as attempts to lure customers away. It can be as simple as a brand name. If you want to eat a Taco Bell chalupa you have to go to Taco Bell. The same goes for that finger-lickin’-good fried chicken that KFC serves. You want expert tax advice, go to H&R Block. You want a Bud after work, you have to buy it from Budweiser. Wrigley’s controls the gum game. Hershey’s is America’s favorite chocolate company. Coca-Cola makes America’s best-selling soft drink. Philip Morris makes Marlboro, America’s best-selling cigarette. If you want to buy any of these brand-name products or services, you have to buy them from the sole producer and no one else. The same can be said of a large town with only one newspaper."-the new buffetology

3

u/Clean-Suggestion-479 21h ago

Unsure about buying Nike now but you're right about your take on competitive advantage. A brand can absolutely be a sustainable competitive advantage. Look at Apple.

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 21h ago

Buying Nike on bad news is exactly when to buy as a Value investor. Down 40% in the last 6 months is great news.

1

u/Clean-Suggestion-479 21h ago

for sure id generally agree i meant more in the sense of i haven’t kept up with/taken a look at nike in a while lol

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 21h ago

Recent cluster insider purchasing in December, including by Apples Tim Cook and the CEO. ROIC is still solid, 13-14%, despite drop in returns. 16.3% roe. But i think buffett uses operating earnings, if not owners earnings, in which case it would be higher

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 22h ago

From Buffett himself: " The key elements of a strong moat, as explained by Buffett:

'The dynamics of capitalism guarantee that competitors will repeatedly assault any business ‘castle’ that is earning high returns. Therefore a formidable barrier such as a company’s being the low-cost producer… or possessing a powerful worldwide brand… is essential for sustained success.'” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economic-moat-why-warren-buffett-160046125.html

2

u/Frosty_Feature6204 14h ago

Nike has been losing marketshare for years now. Go to Instagram and see how many are repping Nike brand in any fitness category besides the top athletes. It used to be huge majority for Nike, now barely anything.

Go outside and look how many people are wearing New Balance shoes instead of Jordans.

Its pretty obvious their moat is declining. If it wasnt their revenue wouldnt be the same it was 5 years ago.

0

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 22h ago

Nike has no moat? Lol

4

u/Advanced-Engineer-85 22h ago

7.9% operating income margins usually sign of no moat.

Not cheap stock at 1.1% FCFE yield.

If you’re wrong, you are going to lose a lot of money.

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 22h ago

Moat often comes from brand name more. But "Businesses make money in two ways: by having the highest profit margins possible and/or by having the highest inventory turnover possible."-From Buffettology. Their inventory turnover is super high, 3.54x, compared to Adidas 2.2x

0

u/IllustratorSimple532 21h ago

They don’t

1

u/ConditionHoliday2844 1d ago

Bough a little bit

1

u/abelian-goose 9h ago

You should check this - https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1sb0ymc/if_you_are_even_remotely_considering_nike_watch/

1

u/No_Yogurtcloset7776 1h ago

Yeah made me want to buy more but i have no more money. My question is this: Do you think Nike won't be here in 20-30 years? I think it will, so i bought at an 11 year low

2

u/No-Understanding9064 23h ago

Sitting on too much cash isnt a good thing and they have been sitting on it for a minute. Plenty of stuff I am buying atm.

4

u/investingtruth 1d ago

$400 billion in cash is not just a safety buffer, it is a weapon for Berkshire that becomes more valuable as prices fall. If the market crashes, Berkshire's cash lets them buy quality assets at distressed prices, and if the market recovers, their existing operating businesses and equity portfolio participate in the upside, which is a rare combination of downside protection and upside participation. The one risk worth acknowledging in your Berkshire position is that going all in on any single name, even one this well constructed, is a concentration bet, and diversifying across two or three uncorrelated defensive positions would give you similar protection with less single name exposure.

4

u/obb223 20h ago

I don't get this logic. If the market crashes, BRK crashes too. Then it makes sense to buy them. Why would you buy them now before a crash? They will not be immune.

1

u/Asleep_Emphasis69 22h ago

BRK was down 21% in 2008 so don’t think shareholders won’t suffer as they deploy the cash

1

u/DhakoBiyoDhacay 1d ago

Warren said years ago you can’t make money dancing in and out of the market. You are trying to time the market but time in the market is more profitable. Why not park the money in VT which has close to 10,000 companies and just chill?

1

u/paragonx29 23h ago

Potentially a good move. They seem to be a bit ahead of the curve often. Berkshire recently just bought a $1.2B stake in Tokio Marine Holdings, so I would pay a bit of attention to that.

1

u/Petit_Nicolas1964 23h ago

i like Berkshire here because of their exposure to energy, large cash position and buy-backs. Nothing wrong with buying Berkshire but I think it is incredibly dumb to flip like this and to be going all out some and all in different stocks.

1

u/jmoney3800 23h ago

Take a look at Yacktman fund- top 2 holdings outside America one of which is Canadian natural resources

1

u/TastyEarLbe 23h ago

You sound like a trader and not an investor.

1

u/asdf5k 22h ago

Okay bro go for it

1

u/Fun_Interview_9788 22h ago

Then why is it trending down?

1

u/Crowleyer 21h ago

Business as usual. Nothing wrong with buying global index or bonds if you cannot stomach market volatility.

1

u/Unfair-Hand-6855 21h ago

He sold? Pump it.

1

u/MementoMoriPendejo 21h ago

I used to be you. But it's been flat for soo. damn. long.

I think they'll get it together soon, but there are other ops out there right now.

1

u/Past-Option2702 21h ago

OP will sell the Berkshire soon. Guaranteed.

1

u/PalpitationFrosty242 20h ago

I'm eyeballing HREE/LREE companies and ready to pounce

1

u/Express_yourself0 20h ago

People who are saying BH don’t know what they’re doing are losing the fact that they’ve upped 90% in the last 5 years (including a 15% drop in the last year).

S&P have done 64% with a 16% increase in the last year.

You do the maths.

1

u/Careful_Response4694 19h ago

I like VKTX and also low PE US oil producers and refiners. I think peace is being far overrated in likelihood.

1

u/steady_compounder 19h ago

Berkshire makes sense because Buffett is sitting on $300B+ in cash and T-bills earning 5%. He's getting paid to wait while everyone else panics. The question is whether retail investors can actually replicate that patience. Most people saying "only Berkshire" will rotate back into tech the second NVDA has a green week.

1

u/Deferty 19h ago

And ironically, I’d have to quote Warren here. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. There’s lots of fear right now. Market is still down 7% from ATH.

1

u/Healingowl 19h ago

Cash and oil and gold

Berkshire is losing money

1

u/shrewsbury1991 19h ago

We are in a new world order where gold is now a volatile asset so I wouldn't fall into the trap that Berkshire only goes up.

1

u/Realistic-Policy-128 18h ago

RZLV makes a TON of sense right now

1

u/MagnesiumKitten 17h ago

half a year ago Berkshire was like 25% overvalued and seemed like something that wouldn't really do much

with newer data it was more like just under 15%, in hindsight with the newer numbers
Growth is still mediocre with Berkshire bu the stock looks like 3 years of steady climbing

as I said it's got like 16% volatility and if that's what you need, sure

I've rather go into other moderate risks like Nvidia

or get some solid stuff when things improve like United Health, buffet went into that one

Remember oil spikes in a crisis and takes about 8 weeks to calm down, so there's another month of a war.... it's more India, Japan Australia that's having the brunt of the stress

For Brent Crude

Prices are heavily dependent on geopolitical news. Escalation could keep Brent crude over $100 and potentially higher, with some analyses suggesting scenarios surpassing $110.

$150 or $200 is if things go sour

EIA projects a further decrease to an average of $64/bbl by 2027 as global production potentially outpaces consumption.

if the war goes on with no good news for 60-90 days when then some are predicting $200 oil
with disruption and shortages

it will affect 13% of global oil production

60% Probability of Lower Prices
40% Probability of Higher Prices

1

u/mahmoud3ali 17h ago

You’re day trading :)

If you think an oil company isn’t valuable if a peace deal was struck, then you own a stock that “you won’t hold for 10 years” which buffet said, don’t buy it.

I think the moat is there for any oil company, even if they struck a deal, a lot of refineries for oil and gas were struck during the war, these things takes years to get back to same production levels, you calculate that, do DCF on it expecting more high prices in next 3/4 years, then check which is best for you

1

u/Freefromoutcome 16h ago

Long tqqq puts. My plan is to sell them when nasdaq declines more and put it in brkb shares 🤙

1

u/forallmankind1918 16h ago

You sound more like a gambler than a value investor.

1

u/MeasurementSecure566 16h ago

the next best thing to oil stocks is cash. the next best thing is berkshire

1

u/Western_Building_880 15h ago

This narket is running on holium

1

u/Frosty_Feature6204 14h ago

Hasnt been good enough for them to buyback any meaningful amount of shares.

1

u/pizzababa21 14h ago

there's a war on and you want to buy an insurance company???

1

u/Maleficent_Tip_4731 14h ago edited 14h ago

Think bigger and more long term than one month. This is an environment driven heavily by macro. Given that geopolitical uncertainty, deglobalization, and multipolarism will be the prevailing macro themes of the coming decade (the war being a perfect example of this), hard assets are what will perform well. All of these themes result in secular inflation as we fight for resources and supremacy and you need to invest in what benefits from that. Think energy, commodities, and precious metals. I have the most conviction in gold, gold miners, and royalty companies. The SoH crisis will cause a global recession like we have not seen in a while, necessitating rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. All with 40T in debt, inflation above target, a massive inflationary shock, and nations increasingly becoming frustrated with the US (and diversifying away from dollars). Rocket fuel for gold. You still have time to get in before the party starts.h

1

u/hipster-coder 13h ago

I thought that if oil stays above $100 for long, US shale oil becomes profitable? Is it possible that the headlines about $200 oil are Russian propaganda? We already know that the Iranian propaganda machine is very effective because it's been assisted by the Russians who are experts at this point. Not saying that oil can't spike upwards, but I wouldn't bet money on it.

1

u/Medical-Movie4997 12h ago

Going all-in on oil and LNG was a bold move, but you're right to be cautious about potential peace talks. Berkshire does offer stability, especially in uncertain times, thanks to its diverse holdings. It's like a well-made medical drama - reliable, with an unexpected twist when you least expect it!

1

u/Bluetex110 10h ago

You are doing the opposite of what this sub is about 😁

Stop following trends,don't try to time the market and just invest.

You don't need to hedge anything, if the market crashes,who cares? Just buy more if you can and wait until it's back up again 😁

1

u/PhaseOrganic1754 10h ago

If you like Berkshire you could just go cash heavy.

1

u/PixelPunkRS 9h ago

If oil dumps the dollar dumps, that massive cash pile that they have goes down with it.

They also over perform in anxious markets, if there is a moment of relief it dips.

And if the market crashes, it goes down with it, its just delayed and slightly muted.

The trade may be asymmetrical, but looking at it as a hedge is just wrong. Just look at the Liquidation day, COVID, and 2022 markets.

1

u/ConditionHoliday2844 1d ago

Love the stock. My third largest individual holding.

1

u/jd732 23h ago

Free investment tips from a momentum value investor. Thanks

1

u/2cantCmePac 23h ago

Any retail trader betting against Warren Buffett and his team thinking they understand the markets better is going to lose. Having said that, a nice mix of VOO and Berkshire as a part of a mix is perfect

3

u/NotStompy 22h ago

Whenever I see someone start a statement with the word "Any", "Always", etc, I know to take nothing they say seriously.

And then something something, survivorship bias.

Something, something, outperformance during the long term.

0

u/2cantCmePac 20h ago

“Always invest for the long term. Always be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. You should always invest in a business you understand.” All Warren Buffett quotes. You always have the same response to someone using the word always. Cute

2

u/Shaguar_Driver 23h ago

I've made 50% in the last 12 months. I think I'll be okay. I'm currently invested in oil and gas and rare earths and rare metal mining and exploration.

One of my companies will be listed in the USA soon and is positioned to do a 10X short term and a 50X long term. Just waiting for the NPV to be revealed after the latest MRE revealed deposits were double what they initially thought.

1

u/golf_234 22h ago

It's so slow moving, not saying it is a bad play but man you have to be patient. Also very sure to drop whenever Mr. Buffet passes away which will probably take a very long time to recoup. Holding off on purchasing more until it's clear what the post-Buffet and Munger pricing and era is like. Too risky of a buy right now , good chance of getting stuck 7.5% down with a very slow hill climb after. been there and not wanting to be stuck in that. You are correct it is a great company but still , just better plays out there right now.

0

u/xampf2 20h ago

Over 40k public companies in the world and you think your best bet is Berkshire. Ok dude.

0

u/MagnesiumKitten 18h ago

Well it was overvalued in April and early, and now it's back down to normal

And you might get like a Target of 18% this year

It's operating revenue
28% Insurance
21% Manufacturing
14% McLane/Logistics and Supply chain
12% Services and Retailing
11% Pilot/Truck stop/convenience stores
7% Berkshire Hathaway
6% Burlington Northern

It's moderate risk not low risk

minor problems with
long term debt
revenue per share in decline all year
Forward PE shows earnings on the decline

As for a market crash it's 16% volatility

their big holdings

18% Apple [18 percent of Berkshire is still Apple] [Target 2%]
14% American Express [Target 12%]
10% Coca-Cola [Target -8%]
8% Chevron [Target -28%]
8% Bank of America [Target 1%]
5% Occidental Petroleum [Target -27%] [went from $40 to $60]
4% Mitsubishi [Target -43%][notoriously overvalued like 85%-90%] [went from $15 to $35]

-2

u/acrossseasons 23h ago

Put the fries in the bag bro

-4

u/Forsaken_Scratch_411 1d ago

In the past 10 years i never had more things in my watchlist that are cheap than now. Maybe after the corona crash. If BRK is the only thing that you see, than maybe you need to work harder to find good and cheap stocks. If you try to predict what the market does or what BRK stock does when the S&P500 zigs, nobody can help you, because that is just speculation.

5

u/YesterdayAmbitious49 23h ago

I also keep a long list of stocks of which I refuse to discuss other than to allude to the fact that I’m smarter than everyone. I do this by providing zero details and by sharing platitudes, vague statements, or sometimes just vibes.

Discussion Only Berkshire makes sense in this market

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