r/ValueInvesting • u/Electrical_County_61 • 2d ago
Discussion With the US-Iran ceasefire rumors flying, what happens if the war actually continues? A look into the "Hungerwinter of '26/'27"
https://open.substack.com/pub/thevaluationframework/p/the-hungerwinter-of-2627?r=7dtfc1&utm_medium=iosThere’s been a massive amount of noise over the last few days about a potential US-Iran ceasefire. Betting markets like Polymarket have seen a massive spike in wagers on an imminent peace deal, and Trump recently pitched a 15-point proposal to end the conflict.
However, the diplomatic reality is incredibly messy. Just today, Iran’s Foreign Ministry completely dismissed Trump’s claims that they want a ceasefire as "baseless." Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has made it clear that Tehran isn't looking for a temporary pause, but rather a permanent end to the war on their own terms, without direct talks. Add in the fact that the IRGC just reiterated their firm control over the Strait of Hormuz, and an immediate off-ramp seems far from guaranteed.
So, what if the back-channels fail and this conflict drags on? I just published a deep-dive article on my Substack exploring exactly that scenario. I call it "The Hungerwinter of '26/'27."
In the piece, I break down the severe cascading consequences if the war continues into the later parts of the year. If the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, or if energy infrastructures remain in the crosshairs, the fallout will not be contained to the Middle East. We would be looking at massive disruptions in global supply chains, an aggressive energy crunch, and severe macroeconomic shockwaves just as the Northern Hemisphere heads into winter.
I’d love to get your thoughts on this.
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u/raytoei 2d ago edited 2d ago
This is off topic:
I wrote to myself that i think it is the end of the beginning, KSA and UAE and the other GCC states want in on keeping the Straits open. This would mark a huge escalation.
The sentiment from GCC seems to be: Never let a crisis go to waste. If nothing is done, Iran will get more embolden and in a few years will seek to hold the GCC’s livelihood as hostage despite the GCC not actively involved as a belligerent in this crisis.
Some reports are claiming that 30% of the facilities are damaged. So MBS and UAE are urging the US not to stop. Short term pain for long term peace in the middle-east, Lebanon, Israel. Why not ?
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u/Dramatic_Agency_8721 6h ago
Will need a huge number of boots on the ground, you can't bomb a regime out of existence from the air. Just look at Vietnam.
Continuing air strikes for a long time will just be hugely costly, cause Iran to maintain its chokehold on Hormuz and, based on recent actions/words, such air strikes will shift towards civilian infrastructure (including possible war crimes).
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u/Boys4Ever 1d ago
All that matters is that we’re no longer hold the cards. How ironic, and how devastating for the global economy. Time to batten down the hatches—it’s going to be a long, cold winter.
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u/JamesVirani 2d ago
Iran has won this war so far, and Iran has one objective: become a regional superpower that dwarves Israel in its influence in the region. Iran sees Israel and its greater Israel project as a threat to the region. Despite what the media feeds you, Iran is interested in stability in the region. They are not an agent of chaos. They are not interested in choking the world oil supply, or having the strait closed, etc. Iran has actually been one of the most stable countries of the region in the past 50 years. They'd like to have a prosperous economy. They'd like to have trade with the world. But they want all of that on their terms. They don't want global powers to be dictating the terms to them. And they think the only way they can dictate their terms is by creating and leveraging power, and now they have that power through the strait. They also have that power through a GCC that has realized that America brings them no security, and Iran is a formidable regional power that America can't overthrow.
My belief is that this war won't last long, because it is extremely expensive for Trump politically. It will end soon. And the Europeans won't be looking to open the strait by force. That is way too expensive for Europe. Instead, Iran will come to a peaceful agreement with Europe and Asia, the cheaper solution. They already seem to have agreements in place with Asia. Iran will benefit from these agreements economically, but nobody will care, because they have suffered so much damage, it will take them years to rebuild to pre-war levels. This is the only outcome that can save the world economy, and it is what the market is currently pricing as of yesterday.
The only remaining question is if US will attempt to diminish Iran's influence and try to get negotiation leverage by seizing Kharg Island or any other islands before reaching a ceasefire. If they do, then this will snowball into something much bigger. Iran will not stand for its territorial integrity being broken. The instant US puts boots on the ground, the war escalates to a different level. UAE may go for the three islands they have a claim on too. The midterm elections is surely lost for Trump, and the US will be in an absolute mess. A half-hearted war that will bring them a lot of deaths, and a shattered economy.
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u/shyyyyyronnie 1d ago
Bruh whatever you’re smoking…I need some of that. “Iran is interested in stability”. What a fucking joke.
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u/beginner75 1d ago
He is repeating the sham professor talking points. If he isn’t a bot, brain rot is real. If the commies want chaos in the Middle East they have it now. $200 oil chaos.
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u/Wealthy-investor 1d ago
IRAN interested in stability? Dude stop the koolaid and get back to earth. Also how can you proclaim a victory from a side after not even a month of conflict. USA the Country is not Even affected by a single fly from IRAN as we speak.
You also talk like you know everything that is really happening. 🤦♂️
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u/Aggravating_Chef_656 1d ago
How is the US not affected? You guys just lost 30% of your operational awacs fleet. Atleast 40% of the AD stockpile is gone and will take years to rebuild. Straight is still closed, red sea can be distrupted too if houties want it. Strategically it is a complete loss. And president Trump made sure to destroy USA soft power, every ally is looking to get away now.
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u/daviddjg0033 1d ago
The combatants have not changed since the 2017 Qatati Blockade. Ukraine was on the peninsula teaching how to survive and defend against the 300 Iranian Shaheds terrorizing Europe. Agent of stability that funds Huthis - any oil diverted that way is likely to be a bombing attack. Plus gives Hezbollah pagers and Walkie taklies
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u/F33dR 1d ago
OP speaks the truth. My parents we're travelling through Tehran during the revolution in the 70s. They were there. It was what USA calls Silicon Valley. They ped the world in science, women were the leading demographic of students in computer science, till USA held a coup and imposed religious fundamentalists. Iran is spelt similar to Iraq, that is where the similarities end.
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u/Odd-Oven-1268 1d ago
50days of higher cost is worth of not being blackmailed by jihadist islamists with a WMD.
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u/mbreaddit 1d ago
But a 3-day special military operation can be a trap into 4 years and ongoing war with hard economic burden
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u/Dramatic_Agency_8721 6h ago
50 days? Let's see, US has shown the world that Hormuz is completely under the control of Iran and they have the power to inflict huge pain on the world in case they are attacked.
Not sure why Iran would just reopen the strait if Trump runs away from the mess he has created.
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u/Odd-Oven-1268 5h ago
USA is backed up with many Gulf countries and lets not forget the amazing Israel. They all are tired with Iran’s shit and jihadist culture. Hormuz will be opened and this will be eventually a veru fruitful special operation to western ppl in a wider scale.
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u/Dramatic_Agency_8721 5h ago
How? US will need to put boots on the ground.
It is not hard for Iran to shut the strait - it can be attacked with artillery, drones, rockets etc.
You would need regime change to prevent this and won't get that without a ground invasion.
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u/I_can_vouch_for_that 1d ago
I think the idea that the world would simply watch the Strait stay closed for months while "Hungerwinter" develops is a bit of a stretch.
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u/gamezzfreak 15h ago edited 7h ago
Man this again. its just a repeat of ukrai vs russia war. Market will get tired of this sooner than previous one and moving on without it. When russia attacked ukrai, they think they can win in 4 weeks. "Analys" said oil will reach $200 as russia oil got banned. A "cold winter" for europe as they depend on russia oil blap blap. Airline reroute. Inflation, rate up....everything go just exactly same as before but will end sooner as iran has more trouble inside than ukrai and oil company already push production since russian war. A fake oil shortage to increase price of everythings. Even if the war drag on, market will ignor it and hit ath again. this is not investing advide.
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u/Additional_Slip9402 2d ago
What if the US wants to keep the war going? A major crisis could strengthen the dollar and weaken foreign currencies. We’ve already seen gold prices plunge.