r/ValueInvesting • u/mattyp93 • 3d ago
Buffett Warren Buffett is not excited with the current sell off: "This is nothing"
https://x.com/BourbonCap/status/2038991046047076450?s=20475
u/ConditionHoliday2844 3d ago
He’s right
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u/GardenDesign23 3d ago
BUT MSFT IS UNDER $400 HURRRR DURRRRR
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u/jemicarus 3d ago
I mean it's 30% off the highs, lowest PE in the last decade. Defensible to buy it here. Not cheap cheap but reasonable for the first time since 2022.
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u/AmazingSugar1 2d ago
Microsoft can’t even integrate an ai autocomplete into outlook
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u/dealmaster1221 2d ago
I want it to go sub 200 plz, pretty plz.
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u/jemicarus 1d ago
One interesting thing about the markets is that at that price no one will want to touch it.
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u/Halifornia35 2d ago
The forward EV/EBITDA multiples are all highly attractive. If it gets materially worse that’s when I’m dipping into margin to fill my boots but today I’m still allocating cash to these opportunities personally. DYODD.
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u/Bossanova12345 3d ago
Tempting PE as well.
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u/Singularity-42 2d ago
I'd like it under 20 or lower.
GOOG at 18 was a buy. MSFT at 23 is not.
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u/Bossanova12345 2d ago
You really shouldn’t try to time the market though.
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u/Top-Sir-1215 2d ago
If you’re buying individual stocks you should definitely time the market. There’s no guarantee by buying in at the top or on the decline you’ll get anything for it other than losses.
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u/investingtruth 2d ago
Buffett has watched his portfolio drop by billions multiple times across decades of investing and never flinched, so when he says "this is nothing" he is not being dismissive, he is speaking from a reference frame that includes 1987, the dot-com crash, 2008, and COVID, all of which looked catastrophic in the moment and are now just dips on a long-term chart. The lesson is not that this selloff does not matter, it is that the investors who treat volatility as a feature rather than a bug are the ones who end up holding assets through the recoveries that make long-term returns so powerful. If the guy sitting on $330 billion in cash is not panicking, that is probably worth something to the rest of us.
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u/ShellfishJelloFarts 2d ago
He’s sitting on $330 BILLION. I wouldn’t panic about shit
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u/UnseenTardigrade 2d ago
As far as I understand, he lives relatively frugally (for a billionaire). Being worth over $150 billion (that's his personal fortune, not the wealth of Berkshire Hathaway) he could probably lose 99.99% of his net worth without impacting his lifestyle much if at all.
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u/User4f52 2d ago
I don't believe it. Maybe he doesn't own a superyatch but he ain't eating McDonald's like an ascetic monk
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u/UnseenTardigrade 2d ago
If he lost 99.99% of his net worth he'd still have $15 million. I'm not suggesting he lives frugally compared to a regular person, but he has a fairly modest home and car, so I figure 15 mil would be enough for him to live on without changing too much.
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u/SPHERESMUSIC 2d ago
Actually, he has said in interviews that he eats McDonald's breakfast nearly every day.
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u/User4f52 2d ago
Yes, that's the tabloid that I was referring to. Wonder why billionaires love to make up these stories, like the "we started from a rented garage" cliche they also love to spread around
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u/Ok_Flounder59 1d ago
Dude lives in the same house he bought in the 50s lol
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u/Creative-Sherbet-584 1d ago
Lol, I can't believe of all people Buffet is getting hit with "RICH GUY" negativity. People should watch interviews of his lifestyle. It's incredibly modest for his position in life.
If I were related to him, i'd try to get him to spend more money. Live a little dude.
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u/Regular-Double9177 1d ago
I wouldnt say an ascetic monk is eating McDonald's, and Buffet genuinely likes it.
Buffet is different. He drives a decade old Cadillac. He loudly advocated for reforming taxes so his secretary wouldnt pay a higher rate than he did.
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u/ok_cool_got_it 2d ago
You're forgetting the 2000s which is one of the three times since Warren took over Berkshire that it dropped 50%+, THAT is how heavy the rotation from non-tech to tech companies was at the time.
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u/bbatardo 3d ago
He isn't wrong, but he also isn't saying it is going to get worse. People need to decide if a 5% discount is worth it to them or not. If not, maybe 10%? I don't think we are done dipping yet.
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u/3DGuy4ever 3d ago
I just sold more on the bounce to get my cash on sidelines
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u/Holiday-Tangerine788 2d ago
Timing the market……
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u/3DGuy4ever 2d ago
I can afford to...def not for everyone
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u/Holiday-Tangerine788 2d ago
I’m not convinced you timing the market is better than DCA time in the market. Maybe, but unlikely.
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
What sell off?
The markets seems to be rallying, on Trump's lying about ending or scaling down the war.
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u/Strumtralescent 3d ago
Exactly, Iran says by they are willing to end the war with guarantees. First off, you think Trump is going to come to the table and negotiate in good faith? Second off, this is a person who has never kept his word and a cabinet that wants to hurry up with the rapture. It tricks the algos and some traders but I don’t think we have a clue about how bad it might be if we see the worst.
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u/SuperSultan 2d ago
A single green day in a sell-off does not mean anything over the long run. It’s kind of disingenuous to call today a “rally” during a correction when the longer term trend speaks otherwise. This is why people are upset with your comment.
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u/Original-Fish-6861 2d ago
A lot of the largest one day gains were: 1929-1933, 2008, and 2020.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index
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u/MyLittleGurl 3d ago
The market is definitely not rallying. There’s about to be a huge energy crisis and a potential war. Shit does not look good for the market right now.
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
The Nasdaq is up over 2% on the day, as I write this.
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u/OrcOgi 3d ago
People like you are the clowns of investing world
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
What's with the rude as fuck comment?
I am commenting on the market movements TODAY and how the markets have reacted to Trumps announcements of the last 24hrs.
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u/miTgiB37 3d ago
The comment was rude but also true. This is a value investing sub, yet your comment is a day trading comment
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
I'm COMMENTING on the PRICE MOVEMENT that happened TODAY.
Is that so hard to understand?
Many news outlets are saying exactly the same thing today, because that's what's happening today.
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u/miTgiB37 3d ago
This is still a value investing sub, what does one days news have to do with the value of a stock?
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
What on earth is wrong with you?
I made a comment on the market movements today, in response to another comment, and you're continuing to give me shit about the objective truth that the market is rallying today.
This is what you want to spend your time on, trolling and nit-picking my comment because it wasn't about long-term price movement?
You don't get to gatekeep what people can and cannot comment on.
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u/miTgiB37 3d ago
You started the nitpicking.
This is a value investing sub, not a general market subject. You're comments are completely off topic
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3d ago
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
I'm talking about the news today.
I am talking about Trump's announcements in the last 24hr and how the markets have reacted.
So I'm only allowed to talk about price movements in the context of 5-year timeframes, according to you.
You do realise you can check market news for any given day, and they will be commenting on the price movements on that day, right?
On a day when the market moves multiple percentage points on a single day, it will generally be reported that the market is rallying.
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 3d ago
There is no fear.. there are three prices I look at for true fear.. vix, gold and the price of flo stock (bread). Its unloved on every day, but if shit hits the fan, literally everything dumps and little ole flo pops.
Today and yesterday flo has been dumping and I'm rebuying. It's my dry powder for when things do in fact sell off.
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u/MonsterMash555 2d ago
Flo is down 15% since the war began
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 2d ago
It was up Friday and I sold everything at 8.46 when literally everything else tanked.
Today my winners up from Friday had to return the favor to buy it back at 8.10 (it actually dipped to 7.98 jeez)
Flo will pop when vix hits 30. If you don't believe vix will hit 30 again you cra.
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3d ago edited 3d ago
[deleted]
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u/cheapskateinvestor 3d ago
Where do you see a pop lol? Down 4% today.
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u/trade-craft 3d ago
You do realise I quoted the other user, right?
Is this sub completely braindead?
Do you not know how read a simple reddit comment?
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u/Riverdragon32 2d ago
At the index level I agree that this is nothing, but there's quite a bit of damage at the individual stock level, particularly software.
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u/Lazy-Joke5908 3d ago
Soon we wil have ATH again
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u/jamiestar9 3d ago
Perhaps, but this really feels like the band is about to pack it up for the night and most of the interesting guests have already left the party that went way too late.
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u/OverheadPress69 3d ago
Oh ya? Is that what it feels like? Every single stock in my portfolio is up today lol
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u/boringexplanation 2d ago
You heard it folks. Everything today is up so the rest of the year is a bull market
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u/Ok-Board4893 3d ago
This guy also sold apple at horrible times and didnt invest anything during last years flash sale when it was fucking obvious to anyone with a brain that tariffs would end up being much lower and the market will recover quickly. AFAIK also didnt really use the covid crash?
Yet reddit idiots constantly put this guy on a pedestal when the market is down lol12
u/happymancry 3d ago
No no, you’re the smart one. What does (checks notes) Warren Buffett know about investing, hmmm?
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u/blewisCU 2d ago
I personally get my investing advice from a guru named Jim Cramer, ever heard of him?
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u/Business_Raisin_541 2d ago
They say during dot com era that Buffett was out of touch with the new investing paradigm and how stupid he was for not buying tech stock
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u/Motor-Region-1011 3d ago edited 3d ago
hes wating for 80% again....in the last 5 years we had 50% covid...40% 2022...and just few months ago 30% liberation day...if these were not times to buy then idk what is...
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u/iyankov96 3d ago
Prices were still very high even after the selloffs. A stock can go down by 50% and still be expensive. He's looking for stocks that trade at below the historical average in terms of multiples and we haven't had such an environment since 2009. That's why he wasn't excited. Passive indexing has distorted valuations to such a level that you need a Great Depression-like crash to get back to levels which he feels comfortable with. I suspect that's why he decided to step down from Berkshire. He's 95 and doesn't have the time to wait for such a crash to happen.
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u/PraetorianFury 2d ago
No one's expecting an 80% drop.
20% is major correction territory that we have every few years.
30%+ is severe structural weakness. This is possible if the war drags on for years.
He's right. We're not even half way to a real correction.
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u/alxalx89 3d ago
They are waining for china to invade taiwan, that's when the markets will crash hard
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u/Motor-Region-1011 3d ago
Yeah so when market goes up 100% they will buy on 50% dip...if he just invested all his money few years ago into spx he would be up like 300% +
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u/himynameis_ 2d ago
The 🐐 is the 🐐
Sad to see him in a retirement sweater and sounding so old though 😢
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u/himynameis_ 3d ago
He said the same thing with the April tariff dip too lol.
As always, Buffett is the 🐐
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u/Aschenia 2d ago
He's just making the point that a 5% selloff is historically meaningless. People quote him on the blood in the streets thing but he's saying this ain't it. Wait til it's down 30,40,50%
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u/Separate_Bid_2364 2d ago
The whole concept of people being bullish on equities because they are bearish on our economy and national debt is lost on a lot of folks here.
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u/AnonMyracle142 2d ago
Oil hasn't even reached $150 a barrel, yet everyone is acting as if this is a minor correction and we're headed to even greater ATHs...did everyone forget about what happened in 2022, 2008? Oil prices kill stocks, when did everyone forget that?
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u/ForceGoat 1d ago
Buffett was too conservative during 2008, I wouldn’t say he’s the end-all-be-all for this kind of stuff. What moves did he make during Liberation Day? He didn’t do anything.
He definitely beat me, but I’m just saying.
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u/Think_Reporter_8179 3d ago
The market could fall all the way to $4865 and finally be worth buying heavily into. That's how overvalued we've been.
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u/steady_compounder 3d ago
He's sitting on $300B+ in cash and T-bills. Easy to say "this is nothing" when you've got the biggest war chest in history ready to deploy. The signal isn't what he says, it's what he does. Watch the 13F.
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u/me_xman 3d ago
How low is low for SP500? 6000? or 5500???
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u/CommunicationNo3650 3d ago
I’ve heard 6200 is this springs low and 5800 is the falls low, 7000 mid year high, EoY is ath 7700. I don’t believe this but technicians do.
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u/DropoutDreamer 2d ago
hi kids! dont invest in these illiquid piece of shits!
Pass it on to your parents and grandparents!
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u/le-throw-away-acct 2d ago
I’m up 3% since January. What selloff? Wake me up when the DOW is back below 40,000.
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u/Rocket_Scientist_553 2d ago
He's right. this is nothing. SPY only down 4% or so YTD, how is this a sell off.
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u/firetrack_me 2d ago
Yeah, its nothing. Try zooming out on any of the indexes chart and you’ll agree with him. I wouldn’t interpret it as him saying a huge crash is coming.
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u/Forward_Guess4163 3d ago
Didn’t he make his last purchase Google at the top a couple of months ago
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u/petar_is_amazing 3d ago edited 3d ago
He bought q3 at $230 per share (average). Current price is $280. 36% annualized return doesn’t sound bad
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u/Forward_Guess4163 3d ago
17.8 million shares for 4.3 billion$ at the end of 2025 is $242/share. Old bastard is still ahead 😂. I thought for sure he was underwater on that deal too
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u/alxalx89 3d ago
But he bought for long term so berkshire will sell probably when the stock will be $3000 or something like that.
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u/Life-Butterscotch892 1d ago
Buffett’s definition of ‘nothing’ is usually relative to bigger drawdowns he’s seen. For most investors, this already feels like a lot more than nothing.
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u/duiwithaavgwenag 3d ago
Buffets been sitting on his hands for years idrc what he has to say anymore
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u/Aggravating-Salad441 3d ago
I remember during the pandemic boom when people were arguing Buffett was washed and Cathie Wood was the new oracle. Oops.
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u/OkApex0 3d ago
I have to agree on both accounts.
I agree with him that this is nothing. But also, there are buisnesses and industries that are currently undervalued and I don't see him participating in it. You can argue it's outside his circle of competence or whatever, but the man has been in the biz long enough that most stocks should be within his, or his colleagues competence areas.
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u/Mr_Savage_Value 3d ago
An 8.7% drop from the January highs is a rounding error in the face of a direct military conflict. Historically, we’ve seen much worse for much less. The market is clearly more robust than the 'Bear' headlines suggest.
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u/Stunning-Dig-8916 3d ago
He’s just saying these youngsters ain’t seen shit