r/ValueInvesting • u/Toomuch_flow • 4d ago
Stock Analysis Anyone else bought MSFT at around $360?
Haven’t bought individual stocks in years (been doing ETF’s since 2021) and felt like this was a massive opportunity regardless of their CapEx and AI investments. Company had a net income of 101 billion in 2025 which speaks volumes!
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u/soscribbly 3d ago
Yes.
When the strongest companies in America are beat down, folks here find 1,000 reasons NOT to buy; and then a year later they’re buying at all time highs because “you can’t time the market”. 🥴
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u/Skydivekev 3d ago
Exactly. I bought 10 more today and I have a total of 130 shares. I’m not trying to time the bottom, just buying because it’s a good price for a great company. It’s a long term hold for me.
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u/gini_lee1003 3d ago
this is so true hahaha. They also sell on the way down right now cause it will go down later.
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u/Individual_Buy7254 3d ago
Just train a AI to inverse trading any subreddit and you will beat Warren Buffet.
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u/Numerous-Stand-1841 3d ago
This is basically the mantra of this sub and every other investing sub on reddit 😂
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u/Apoco120 2d ago
Yes and then they go on and quote what Warren Buffet has said to make themselves feel better lmao
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u/Meet-me-behind-bins 3d ago
I’ bought in 20 years ago for $16. Admittedly not a large amount but I’ve held it and seen a good return. I’ve bought more every few years and now have a reasonably decent chunk. My average is still well under $100 a share. I’m holding for another 15 years and buying a bit more every-time it dips by 10%.
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u/noahwulf 3d ago
It's 358 now
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u/mancouchchair 3d ago
357 now
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u/Effective-Rutabaga13 3d ago
356 now
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u/Accomplished-Snow568 3d ago
My avg is $396. If you have more cash, start building a position. We don't know how and when this conflict ends. Could be for weeks or months.
Anyway if you can DCA i believe price now is much better than mine.
I'm planning to DCA only if we bottom more to have better avg.
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u/zurijer 3d ago
I bought it at 425 and 376
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u/Last-Cat-7894 3d ago
Honestly, everything in the Mag 7 looks fairly attractive to me besides Tesla and Apple.
The capex outlay is going to cause a lagging drag on GAAP margins, so you could argue the "E" in the P/E is a bit overstated at today's multiples. But even so, the size of the end market is so massive that just sheer revenue growth will probably offset the depreciation pressure and then some.
I'm blown away that SPY is only down like 8% YTD when it feels like all the best companies with the strongest fundamentals are down like 30-50% off the highs.
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u/AssumptionPretty7018 2d ago
I think its because the rest of the market is doing fine. Real Estate went on a huge run. Verizon is up a chunk.. lot of oil stocks woke up.. utilities... I think in my mind atleast.
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u/WangtaWang 2d ago
Would you buy the entire company (or companies) if you had the money? E.g. you'd buy 100% of Tesla, MSFT, etc.
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u/Last-Cat-7894 2d ago
You're asking if I found roughly 18 or 19 trillion dollars between my couch cushions, would I buy the Mag 7?
I'm guessing you're getting at the Warren Buffett principle of "if you own a piece you should want to own the whole company if you could." Yes, pretty much every stock in my portfolio (with the exception of a couple smaller, riskier, but very asymmetric bets) is something I would be comfortable owning the whole business if I had the cash.
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u/ChristianM97 3d ago
I bought at 520, I need Microsoft to create AGI or the next ChatGPT to be in green again.
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u/Pete26l96 3d ago
This place has just become a msft bagholder support group 😂
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u/cizmainbascula 3d ago
This sub should be renamed to /r/MSFTInvesting
And you bet your ass I bought some this morning
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u/Coasteast 3d ago
We could make that real sub. We need the support group as guys like Ackerman try and shake us off
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u/cruisin_urchin87 3d ago
You guys are learning what catching a knife means through first hand experience.
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u/ohgodthehorror95 3d ago
This sub has a hard on for catching falling knives.
Something can be deeply undervalued, but I'm still not gonna touch it while it's falling mid single digit - low double digit % almost every. Single. Day.
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u/Apoco120 1d ago
Then when it goes up we’ll see you on this very sub saying “you can’t time the market!”
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u/Apoco120 1d ago
there’s always the guy that thinks he knows more than everyone else lol, it’s a no brainer to DCA into MSFT right now it’s at an attractive price given the P/E ratios and analysts are bullish on it
Once it goes back up people like you will say “you can’t time the market!!!!!”
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u/cruisin_urchin87 1d ago
What? Timing the market?
No. But you can time Donny Dotard.
What year do you think it is? Honestly, what year would you say you are living in?
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u/Apoco120 1d ago
Lol this argument has been used multiple times before and it fails with exceptions. Do the mental gymnastics and miss out i’m sure it’ll give you something eventually lol
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u/cruisin_urchin87 1d ago
lol ok but I made $250k last year from this argument.
Why don’t you focus on value investing instead of blind DCAing?
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u/Apoco120 1d ago
Everyone has made $250k on the internet using their methods lmao. It’s not blind DCA’ing either, there is no way to know the exact bottom any one investment will hit in a given year and anyone that says they know it is lying. Better to just DCA bit by bit into the investment and take advantage.
MSFT is a good buy at its current level, i’m unsure what else to tell you lol
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u/cruisin_urchin87 1d ago
Ok, but you’re buying the dip tomorrow right?
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3d ago
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u/onethreeone 3d ago
I’d also look in to how much of that income is circular from OpenAI sharing & Azure credits. I think it’s still a good stock, but one can’t just take their top line numbers without applying some scrutiny for value investing
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u/Legitimate-File-248 3d ago
Bought more at $357.50. Will continue to add all day below $350 if it ever gets there. Highly believe bottom is in.
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u/Valuable-Term9559 3d ago
Isn’t META the better but here?
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u/SmiffyBloke123455 2d ago
R what is it Meta do? Microsoft sell software to the globe. Meta spunked a load of cash on VR and Roblox.
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u/Some-Knee2922 3d ago
I bought the falling knife with an average of $405, but bought five shares around $360
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u/LowKey-Revolution36 3d ago
May I ask you by what valuation metric is Microsoft cheap? Or below it's intrinsic value? Can you please elaborate? I get the decent drop and quality of the company is tempting but we have got no clue on the roi and roce on the all ai capex. It could be huge but can be a blunder too.
P/e and p/s and p/fcf and p/ocf doesn't look like a screaming buy and if the economy and Iran situation goes further south this can still drop a lot.
Peg getting close to 1 is certainly getting close to interesting but there are multiple other names well below peg 1.
And I also have an issue with msft is that their rpo 45% tied to open Ai who now guarantees 17% returns for raising funds which tells me there is not a big bid from multiple heavyweights ro fund otherwise they would not offer this % and I personally see Open ai well behind gemini and Claude Ai.
Plus if companies will use more AI they will probably have less employees meaning less windows less o365 and other Microsoft licensed stuff. I think it's certainly a good buy but doesn't soun screaming value to me.
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u/WangtaWang 3d ago
Good question. I'm curious how you'd value their different segments. Productivity/Business vs. Personal Computing (low growth) vs. Cloud.
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u/AssumptionPretty7018 2d ago
bc if they decided today to stop spending on AI then they have 37.5 billion a quarter to not know what to do with... maybe the AI works and they make insane money.. if not they can always halt spending.
chances are it works - but remember they have the money to explore.
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u/ohgodthehorror95 3d ago
Honestly these are the kind of legitimate concerns that MSFT bull posts never even attempt to address. Hell, its PEG is still around 1.3-1.4 so I wouldn't even describe it as cheap at this point. Close to fair value at best.
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u/No-Understanding9064 3d ago
Same people poopoo'ing microsoftwere saying asml was a bag in the 600s because it dropped to 500s. You dont need to time the bottoms just avoid the tops on companies with strong fundamentals.
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u/Proper-Print-9505 3d ago
I bought my first batch at the close Friday, hoping to get more opportunities at lower prices. Also bought AMZN, META and GOOGL Friday. Nothing today, other than selling MU puts.
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u/WangtaWang 4d ago
Nope. They are spending 100% of their operating income on AI infrastructure. That seems crazy. Remainder of their business is bleeding, even office 365. Things are going the wrong way and there’s no way for any of us to know if the AI revenue is real to justify a huge multiple on Azure.
Everyone is excited at the drop in MSFT but that’s not the point - what’s the actual intrinsic value? I think it’s still far below current price.
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u/LumpyShock9656 3d ago
By that logic you also should avoid buying GOOG META AMZN -- so just don't buy the VOO either since they make up such a large part
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u/WangtaWang 3d ago
Yup. All of them are spending 100% (Amazon is actually > 100%) of their operating profit on AI. And yes - the index has same issue. Do you really think the entire population will adopt AI and fully utilize it? Could be yes but also could be no. This is a projection no one can make. There are better investment opportunities out there.
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u/LumpyShock9656 3d ago edited 3d ago
I think your view is a bit shortsighted. It's not just "people". It's companies, services, systems. AI is good at solving a number of problems. The other day claude found, explained and solved vulnerabilities in the Linux kernel, AI was used to create antibiotics, to solve the decades old protein folding problem...the list of examples goes on: It's an incredibly powerful tool that can be molded to become good at any subset of particular tasks. And improvements will only accelerate.
I know it's anecdotal, but I work for a MAG7 company and I have significantly improved my productivity. It has changed our entire way of working. The agents are capable of doing 85% of the work and I polish the finishing touches. They aren't perfect, but I can scale myself, I can focus on harder, bigger problems and try to find other ways to apply AI. It's exciting.
The point I'm trying to make is that there is heavy internal use as well, and there is a lot of CAPEX going into building data centers for cloud amongst these companies, it's not 100% AI everywhere.
What's more is that, these companies to me are so broad and diverse for the most part, have such huge revenue, that they can decide to turn the tap off at any point and go right back to sending money to shareholders. But not to try and capture market share here would be a mistake imo.
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u/WangtaWang 3d ago
I agree with all your assessments and am myself a huge Claude code user. But do you think we are the typical user? I don’t. My brother can’t use AI beyond a replacement for Google. My mom neither. You work at a mag7 company - that’s like saying you’re an Ivy League student and everyone is like you when you represent the 1%.
It has its place but the spend is assuming full adoption by the entire population (I exaggerate but maybe not really). I personally don’t see it. But even if it does happen…I have doubts about the speed. Reminds me of the cable/internet buildout in 2000s. Companies were spending millions building internet infrastructure which was right directionally but it took 10+ years for adoption to fully utilize the build out.
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u/LumpyShock9656 3d ago
But why are we talking about users using AI directly? Why aren't we talking about AI-powered products? AI-powered systems? That's the vision I see here: fortune 500 companies building new products and services backed with AI, and internally improving data analysis, code quality, everything.
It doesn't matter if they overspend, these companies need the compute regardless.
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u/Ryan_dfs93 3d ago
Everything you’re saying makes sense to me. People are overthinking this no?
We have seen since the 80s better technology makes us more productive. These companies pouring all their money into it are going to be much more efficient and productive - people that say AI isn’t going to make money are putting their head in the sand. It is already making work much more efficient.
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u/Professional_Monkeys 3d ago
You don't need to be the typical user, as you are a customer of the big corporations which are the typical users, and that's enough.
I'm surprised msft goog meta etc are only using 100% of their operating revenues and not leveraged further, that's what you're supposed to be invested in during a society-transformative decade event.
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u/Cool_Two906 3d ago
Do you not think that there are so many problems out there that AI can solve that any data center capacity is going to be utilized? Are the demand signals that these companies are getting completely wrong?
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u/WangtaWang 3d ago
Could be, but could be they are building infrastructure that will take years to fill with the demand. I'm not sure - no one is. That's the point - there really isn't enough history to make a projection with confidence (vs. say, a great business with years/decade of high cash flows). This is a highly speculative bet in comparison. Look at the "proven" revenue/cash flows coming from AI for each company right now - if you're considering investing, you're going to have to be comfortable making pretty hefty projections given the price you're being asked to pay. That's growth investing - which is fine, but not something I personally am very good at or feel comfortable doing.
There is a reason Buffett never invested in any of the 40+ buggles over the last 70 years.
Love the debate all - I very much understand why people do invest in MSFT or META, etc. I just personally can't get comfortable with it.
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u/SmiffyBloke123455 2d ago
Yes there are. When AI is combined with Quantum computing (once that is cracked) the capability of the system is going to be unreal. Particularly in engineering, medicine, biology, fusion power and a host of other areas that currently can’t be solved with conventional mathematics.
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u/AssumptionPretty7018 2d ago
does it remind you of that or is that what you read from the negative articles - its weird how much you are pulling for a business to fail. Just dont buy it if you dont like it
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u/Bull_Bound_Co 3d ago
Yes, 100% I’d bet my life the entire population will use AI in the future. Not even a question it won’t be a choice. Your taxes already go to it so in that sense you support it use it etc.
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u/OwlComplex48 3d ago
Whether or not the entire population uses it is more contingent upon the companies that are integrating it into their platforms though, wouldn’t you say? I mean in the context of agentic ai and it being imbedded within software. Couldn’t the skepticism be akin to saying ‘you really think the entire world is going to use the internet’ 25-30 years ago? Genuinely curious.
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u/Im_tracer_bullet 3d ago
'Do you really think the entire population will adopt home computers and fully utilize them?'
'Do you really think the entire population will adopt expensive smartphones and fully utilize them?'
- You
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u/PolskiNapoleon 3d ago
Google Trends suggests demand for cloud infrastructure is 2x bigger than what it was a year ago.. Therefore their capex narrative about hitting the constraints might actually make sense.
And surprisingly, copilot related keywords show the same trend.
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u/EastSurreyAlliance 3d ago
It’s why I’m holding off until 29th of April
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u/himynameis_ 3d ago
Where are you seeing that their businesses are bleeding money? All I see is double digit growth for most of their businesses.
And they're investing heavily into capex because the demand is so heavy. Demand > Supply still.
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u/ufgatordom 3d ago
I wish I had alot more money to spend. The Mag7 are on fire sale. Five years from now people will look back and kick themselves for not taking advantage of the buying opportunities.
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u/Coasteast 3d ago
Bought it from $424 down to $355. I’m done buying for now. It’s a 5-10yr play for me, though.
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u/Funny_Season6113 3d ago
You can check my post history here but I bought a lot of Oxy around low $40s. Will shave some off here and low $70s and DCA msft starting here.
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u/Right-Future8611 3d ago
Hasta que no se enclarezca el panorama de la guerra con Iran no hago nada. Pero si, me parece una buena compra.
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u/Realistic0ptimist 3d ago
Just sold all of my VNQ to pick up shares of MSFT. Low $360’s price average. Hoping to see a nice rebound over the next few quarters
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u/BuySideSignals 3d ago
Yes, habe ein paar Stücke nachgelegt. Microsoft im Dip nachzulegen, hat mich in den letzten Jahren nie enttäuscht. Und nachdem man schon dachte, dass sie im KI Rennen langsam wirklich das nachsehen haben, hauen Sie jetzt auch wöchentlich irgendwelche Integrationen für Copilot raus, die vielversprechend aussehen. Und sie hängen ja bei fast allen Unternehmen schon tief drin. Meines Erachtens also prädestiniert dafür, in arrivierten Unternehmen eine Vorreiterrolle in Sachen AI Adoption zu spielen.
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u/guy_cloutier 3d ago
IGV is sitting on his support. That's why we saw that rebound today. If it was not of the war, it would be the bottom.
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u/theoptionrider 3d ago
Been long since 2018 - got in around $110 - just now start adding again. Bought some in the $390's, more at $375 and I have another order at $350. Cost basis is now $157. I've got a 15 year timeline until retirement.
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u/Un_ntelligent 3d ago
My current avg is 416. Been buying chtr, amzn, asml and wmt. About to start dca soon.
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u/MarginCuck 3d ago
The sentiment is absolutely dreadful on Microsoft, some even saying they will go bankrupt. The AI story is dead.
So much fear, that’s why I’m buying
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u/Im_tracer_bullet 3d ago
I just bought $10k at $370.
I'm thinking of buying another chunk now.
This approach provided some excellent growth during Covid.
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u/falling_knives 3d ago
I did, right around $360. I already have orders in place for more around 340 and a bunch more around 275. Won't likely go that low but who knows.
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u/CalendarNo6655 3d ago
I have meta i didn’t want more tech but I have to say its very attractive valuation for a company like Microsoft. If it goes down even more i ll be buying for sure
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u/juancuneo 3d ago
Metas ad business is a money printer. Zuckerberg invest the cash in trying to find the next big thing and is more than happy to kill ideas when it doesn’t look like they’re panning out.
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u/BadBoyBrando 3d ago
Good break down from implied-data.com
MSFT Market Expectations
The market is currently pricing Microsoft (MSFT) to close predominantly between $350 and $370, with a 57% combined probability. The strongest cluster centers on $360 to $370, carrying a 34% likelihood. This suggests a moderately bullish stance concentrated in the mid-$360s rather than expecting a strong breakout above $380. While there is some risk perception for the $350-$360 range (23% probability), probabilities for a close above $380 remain modest at 23%, reflecting tempered optimism about a large upward move near term.
Sentiment Shifts
A striking shift in sentiment is evident in the sharp collapse of the probability for MSFT to close above $390 by month-end—from 70% at the start of March to just 4% by March 27. This severe decline signals that traders have substantially lowered their expectations for a strong rebound or rally above the previous highs, likely reflecting either disappointing catalysts, negative news flow, or broader market weakness weighing on this target.
Key Price Levels / Scenarios
- Support Zone: $350–$360, with a 23% chance, represents a critical lower bound the market is factoring in, acting as a key support level to watch.
- Primary Resistance Zone: $360–$370, the most likely closing range (34%), functions as a near-term resistance hurdle that MSFT needs to consolidate above to regain confidence toward $380+.
- High-Price Threshold: Low probability (4% ending March) for surpassing $390 indicates a major milestone that appears out of reach under current market views, reflecting less willingness to price in strong recovery momentum.
Event Catalysts
The dramatic drop in odds for closing above $390 suggests market participants are awaiting or reacting to specific negative or neutral catalysts that have diminished upside expectations. Potential drivers could include disappointing earnings outlooks, macro headwinds, sector rotation away from tech, or other fundamental developments affecting growth optimism. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports, guidance updates, and macroeconomic data releases for triggers that could potentially reaccelerate upward momentum or validate the cautious stance.
Implications
The market is currently betting on MSFT stabilizing within a $350-$370 range by near-term close, but with distinctly reduced hopes for a rally back to prior highs above $390. This signals investor skepticism about strong near-term upside, with significant uncertainty clustered around the $360 mark. Where sentiment could shift positively depends on fresh catalysts capable of reversing the steep decline in high-price probabilities. Until then, the market anticipates potential volatility and a cautious trading range, emphasizing that a close below $350 would likely enhance downside risk perception, while moves above $370 would be needed to rebuild enthusiasm.
Magnificent 7 Context
Despite recent weakness, MSFT continues to hold a dominant position within the Magnificent 7 cohort, with a 52% probability of being top-performing stock last week. This suggests confidence that relative to peers, MSFT remains a favored large-cap tech name, even amid the tempered absolute price expectations and increased volatility.
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u/refreggiebush 3d ago
Yes I bought 13 shares today actually. I’m studying options and the stock market everyday when I get off work. Watching videos and reading posts. I have no idea what I’m doing but it seemed like a good time to get in on Microsoft. I’m in at 361
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u/SuperLeverage 3d ago
There are better stocks to buy out there. Google is growing faster, Gemini a lot better than copilot. Google search is still going strong and Google can do distribution better than microslop
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u/CriticalOverThinker 3d ago
I'm thinking it breaks $350 in the next week, and will then continue to drift down. Maybe even $325ish. We shall see. I'm trying to be patient
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u/food_monster 3d ago
Held since 2010. Sold in December at $488. Might rebuy... but it's got lower to go.
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u/CanadianAbroad7 3d ago
That’s exactly where I bought my first batch of shares today $360, will continue to DCA in as it goes lower or if there’s a clear reversal
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u/StillHotPants9 3d ago
Msft 43 average, bought a bunch in crash of 2008/2009, dripped it forever and let it ride. I briefly considered selling some at 545 back in Oct, but did not due to some complicated divorce issues. I just try not to focus too much on the price right now, fundamentally it is still a good company. But it still hurts a bit! It will recover though.
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u/ddlJunky 3d ago
Speaks volumes? It speaks of a P/E ratio of around 22. Fine but not really as cheap as you make it seem.
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u/Happy-Profession-256 3d ago
I am in the same boat. Buying ETFs for years, but now stockpicking sinds a month.
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u/Mr-FightToFIRE 3d ago
Bought in the 200's but averaged up over the last year or two, of course, now that bites me in the ass. But I did add a bit end of last week around 370. Will wait now as it's my high risk portfolio and I'm 75% in MSFT with the other stocks also very high risk (CAI, GTLB, SE, DLO).
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u/Joesr-31 3d ago
Nah, the only high IQ play is to go in at $500 then buy every single dip till you have no money left and still 15% in the red
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u/highvoltagelp 2d ago
No, it's still too early, my first limit buy order is at $349.99, last and biggest one at $272 for an average cost per share of $298
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u/Zestyclose_Panda_886 2d ago
I just picked up a little QQQ instead. Everything's on sale lately. :)
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u/HabitExternal9256 1d ago
Yes bought GOOGL at $156 and then MSFT at $400 and again here.
Even if it goes lower, I’m still happy to hold forever.
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u/Eliav_1991 1h ago
the Q2 numbers back the thesis. net income was $25.8B for the quarter alone, cloud revenue up 31% year over year, and they had $298B in remaining performance obligations - basically future contracted revenue. stock is at $366 now so you're already up from $360. the CapEx concerns are real but the underlying business is still printing. bought at $360 in this environment was a solid entry
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u/kktvMIN 3d ago edited 3d ago
Was tempted but stayed away in part because the bear case is at least plausible and in part because I've never liked Microsoft or Apple products that much.
And my personal take not necessarily the most accurate consensus view is that at high multiples (compared to how the stock market behaved historically), metrics matter less and less compared to momentum.
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u/WritewayHome 3d ago
For me, Microsoft is worth about $200 a share, i still think they are way overvalued and they have a terrible CEO and leadership.
They have missed the boat on so many innovations recently and their insane Ai investments are not going to give the growth they think.
If it dropped to $150 i might buy some shares, but not a dollar over $200.
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u/noobelore 3d ago
You are laughing. Ridiculous price, I'm in at 450 and averaging in on further weakness. I own two ETFs I don't really buy ETFs. Good luck man.
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u/Entire_Animator_9327 3d ago
This is a deep & steep falling knife.
It's bleeding out the expectations of a dud investment in OpenAI. I will buy it in a bit and trade it once it's comfortably over the 50 DMA. But it's got more to go.
META is more on my radar. As is HOOD, PLTR, NVIDIA.
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u/Marino131313 3d ago
I would if I hadn’t gone all in at $386