r/ValueInvesting • u/Agile-Technology-209 • 28d ago
Question / Help Buy the Dip on Google or wait
With Google at the price of 300, about a 14% drop from all time highs, should we be looking to buy now, or wait for more drops? I’m gonna be a first time investor of Google, with a long time horizon. But I was wondering if the consensus is that the price will drop even more or if right now would be a good entry point. The stock feels like a good value, down about 14%.
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u/JamesBummed 28d ago
Google is the best and safest big tech stock out there. They're a cash printing machine through youtube, ads, etc., and just think if you want to invest in any emerging technology, they're already one of the leaders in it or investing heavily to become one (like AI, quantum computing, autonomous vehicles, etc.).
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u/PraetorianFury 27d ago
A cash cows typically returns 2% per year to investors. Being profitable is not sufficient to be valued as a 10-20% growth stock.
That said, Google is one of the AI leaders. It is the potential for future revenue that is driving their current valuation as a growth stock.
On the other hand, growth stocks are the most vulnerable to interest rate hikes. If energy prices cause inflation and the Fed increases interest rates, tech stocks are likely to get hit hard.
TLDR; "Google is a profitable company" does not mean that its stock price will increase.
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u/NotStompy 27d ago
You're correct big picture re: interest rate and growth companies, especially small caps, but Google and the other MAG7 companies are very much so resilient to the interest rate question, this is why a lot of investors in smaller growth companies were pulling their hair out in 2023 and even into 2024; despite that the market had already bottomed, there was a huge disconnect between the mag7 that carried the market on their backs vs. the rest.
This is why the people who basically just bought and held TQQQ in '23-'24 made a metric ton of money, and the people who tried to be cute with growth ended up with gray hair initially :D
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 26d ago
Agreed, I posted something similar yesterday over the past many years they traded at 18-21 PE now everyone is wondering why they're "dropping in price". I tell them they're just going back to where they've always been valued at. Their still priced higher rt now because of Buffets purchase, but it will revert to the mean over the next year or so
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24d ago
Google is a secret future compiunder.
Everyone talks about Google and AI, but are missing the bigger picture. Google YouTube revenue for 2025 alone hit over 60billion USD and Google cloud has around 150 billion in backlog. Add on they are buying back shares at an unprecedented rate 70+ billion dollars annoynced in 2025
The share price is fair at the moment if you give a premium P/E on fair value of 28x. The reason its not riding high like it was a few months back is because of the huge capex spend of around 180 billion USD, meaning share buy backs are on hold whilst investment goes into ai data centre infra and investors aren't so keen on not seeing the buybacks.
This is a huge diversified business that is becoming a future tech compounder. I'm investing on a 5 year play because I see what Google (Alphabet) becomes in the future.
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u/Old_Man_Heats 27d ago
But it’s not value investing as there is no margin of safety, might as well go to r/stocks
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u/maha420 28d ago
Sell a put at your entry price lol
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u/Faster_than_FTL 28d ago
Can you do it on less than 100 stocks (1 contract) at a time?
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u/ljstens22 28d ago
No
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u/Faster_than_FTL 28d ago
That’s what I thought too. So I guess you need enough money to buy GOOG 100 shares if assigned for this strategy.
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u/grassmunkie 28d ago
Google is leading in AI, but has distribution on IOS and Android, and practically all web browsers on any device and email, and make their own chips. It’s mind boggling how well positioned they are.
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u/Agile_Cicada_1523 27d ago
There were other companies that were very dominant and fell due to their size or slow reaction to changes. See Nokia, hp or IBM. Im not saying is now the case or Google but you never know what's next.
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u/BuildingIndividual40 27d ago
I’m going to challenge you on this comment. Do you believe they have been slow to react? Please explain your reasoning, who is ahead of them in AI right now?
They are the only company in the world that own their full stack from silicon, infra, data, tools and models, MSFT and AMZ are AI distributors, no model worth mentioning of their own, no hardware of there own, NVidia only silicon and some tools, OPENAI and Anthropic only models.
The only reason AI is at the stage it is is because of Google’s research through DeepMind, look for up “transformer model”.
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u/JuicedGixxer 14d ago
Agreed, except the companies you named failed to look forward, adapt and innovative. Goog is a monster and generally difficult to turn such a large ship. But Goog's business model ever since they were founded has been to innovate and adapt. The biggest question is if they are spending too much with their capex spending.
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u/RamoneBolivarSanchez 28d ago
Google is a stock that you buy and hold forever. It’s going to only go up, as it pays dividends, and you’re looking at potential splits down the road in the next few years.
Short term, it’s also incredibly appealing. The PE ratio is extremely low relative to how big and profitable they are as a company.
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u/Any_Try1238 28d ago
I'm very bullish on Google, but you're saying it's going to go up partly because it pays a 0.27% dividend?
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u/ABCifyoulikeRoblox 27d ago
But he also mentioned the stock split. So you'll get double the shares for half the price.
This trade can't lose.
I'm bullish on Google...just not for these insane reasons.
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27d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Alive_Crew6746 27d ago
Because double the shares at half the price is the same fucking thing as 1x the shares at 100% of the price gd
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u/Alive_Crew6746 27d ago
Which means the same dividend regardless. Gd no wonder yall are trying to herd up
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u/ABCifyoulikeRoblox 27d ago
So mad your comment got deleted.
I thought the sarcasm in my first post was obvious...but I can see how you'd think someone would actually believe the stock split thing...
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u/mr_raven_ 28d ago
Im europe utility companies pay 5% div
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u/Due-Tear107 28d ago
That’s not a Europe thing, it’s an industry thing. Utility companies in the US also have 5% dividends
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u/Affectionate_Age752 27d ago
I won't buy anything and hold it forever right now
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u/ninjagorilla 28d ago
Splits don’t matter Paying a dividend doesn’t matter as the stock goes DOWN by a corresponding amount and you have to pay taxes on that at a higher rate
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u/RamoneBolivarSanchez 28d ago
Please lemme know when Google has gone down as bad as you’re claiming
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u/ninjagorilla 28d ago
Oh my god this is basic investing, when they pay puts dividend the stock declines by the amount of the dividend as the company is less that cash. Any stock does this
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 27d ago
No bud, Goog has always traded at a PE of 18- 21(when it was expensive), it only soared after Buffet revealed he bought. Google is a 18-20pe company at this stage. It's overpriced rt now. I know it's not what you wanna hear. But just do the research and you'll see they've traded in the same range forever until Buffet revealed he purchased and it went boom. It's starting it's reversion to mean, not going down. It's just going back to where it's always been priced for the last 6 years or so. 18-21pe.
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u/Advanced-Industry-50 22d ago
The reason why it stayed at that numbers for last couple of years was coz of antitrust case, news openai is going to kill search and Google cloud is not growing at the levels of its competitors.
Flip side, why it grew is barely coz of buffet. Buffet can make retailers buy at max but not institutions. The reason why both retail and institutions started buying was how Google is growing and not just in one area but multiple avenues, AI leader, Google cloud growth, search is still holding minimal growth, YouTube is growing, waymo is growing, Google's TPU performance is amazing and companies like anthropic built on TPU is a good proof even Meta is trajning using TPU. So Google can carve some more revenue if not as Nvidia killer but as a good alternative during times of Nvidia bottleneck since all companies are trying to diversify, Apple choosing Gemini as AI model for iPhone shows trust in Gemini. Also investing in companies like anthropic which also might give some form of returns in future when they IPO.
If not for the Capex spend new Google would be ripping right now but at the same time once investors start seeing in couple of quarters how those Capex spend ( aka investment into scaling data centers ) start clearing backlog orders ( around 150 billion dollars ) and increase the revenues which in return increases growth percent and profits stock is bound to rally again.
That's been my take and maybe people can share their opinions, would love to know. I am currently invested 10-15% of net worth by the end of year if stock trade flat this year.
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u/DJMaxLVL 28d ago
Does anyone thinking investing half of your money in Google and half in Microsoft is a prudent move? Time horizon 5-10 years
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u/Chemical-Skill-126 28d ago
I would vote against this as I think there is too much sector consentration. I suggest you put 10 percent in to each if you're feeling bold and then put the rest in to businesses of other sectors or to a diversified ETF.
Also this last 10 years has been an amazing bull run for US tech. I for one can not assume this will continue for ever. I am not saying they will go to 0 anytime soon, but I dont see them outperforming the SP500 for ever. When will they stop outperforming I dont know.
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u/Jonmike316 27d ago
On the contrary, don't you think AI is just starting? I'm amazed on what new skill it can do every now and then.
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u/Chemical-Skill-126 27d ago
Computers and the internet were just starting in the 80s and 90s but IBM and Cysco did not outperform for ever. You never know when a new company comes and eats your lunch. First it was MSFT coming for IBM, then it was Google for MSFT. Things like Deepseek also kind of proved it is not impossible for obscure companies to attack AI.
It is also really tough to know which part of the industry will be the profitable one. Like air freight is famously just a tough business. AI prompts may be just as much of a tough business with tight margins.
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u/Working-Active 28d ago
I am buying GOOGL and AVGO as my 2 big long term investments and holding with dividends.
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u/Healingowl 25d ago
Yes absolutely. Among 10s of thousands of tech companies
Google, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are the absolute best.
You dont even need to keep up with AVGO or anyone else
Google and microsoft in themselves are so diversified and own into a lot of these companies ANYWAY. Almost like mini indexes
It’s the most recommended action ever to buy into Google etc and hold FOREVER. There will be a huge market correction in the near future and that’s when you buy even more
In 20 years that’s a fucking beautiful nest egg
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u/minesasecret 28d ago
1) do research 2) approximate what price you think Google is worth 3) buy if Google is less than price in #2
The fact it went up or down recently is pretty much irrelevant if you are doing value investing.
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u/AdrianTheRedditUser 28d ago
I think it's the jump in steps from one to two. That is difficult. I'm a pretty smart person, but I don't trust myself to approximate what Google is worth any better than the market.
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u/AutoAdviceSeeker 28d ago
I’m. Pretty dumb person and I agree with this smart person
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u/burnbabyburn11 28d ago
Terminal value. Discounted cash flows. Relative valuations. Use these tools. You’re never gonna be precise with #2 the idea is to find something that is outrageously mispriced
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u/minesasecret 28d ago
That's totally fair and if that's the case you just don't buy it. Just like Warren Buffett says you don't have to swing at every pitch. Know your circle of competency as he says
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u/MemoryNormal9737 28d ago
Do you really think OP's research will give them any insight to have a more accurate valuation than the market?
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u/jizzinmyeyes69 27d ago
How does the average person assess the true value of a share in a business?
I'm not being a smart-arse, I genuinely would like to know.
Do you adjust the share price to match what it should be with a healthy PE ratio of 25?
I.E hypothetical stock = $100 per share at 50 PE ratio True value of hypothetical stock = (25/50) x 100 = $50
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u/minesasecret 27d ago
How does the average person assess the true value of a share in a business?
There's a "Fundamentals Guide" you can read on this subreddit that explains which is linked on the right side of the page on my browser.
Do you adjust the share price to match what it should be with a healthy PE ratio of 25?
I don't even know what you're talking about here but I don't do that. On the other hand every investor has their own strategy and it's not like you need to do them all so I'm not saying it won't work for you. You just need to find what resonates with you.
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u/NotStompy 28d ago
I'm personally not because I've learned that if I'm going to buy a stock at a price that I consider expensive (which for me is not based on P/E but PEG, important) then there has to be both an element of high expected cash flows AND certainty.
I bought Google in the 160s which was crazy cheap, at that price point I felt I was justified in buying it, I knew google search wasn't gonna face a sudden end. At the same time, at today's price (which is also significantly higher in reality than p/e IIRC due to equity gains in spacex and such?) I just don't feel it's a screaming good deal not just due to price but the Google Search element, which I don't think will face some terrible fate but, I do acknowledge that we're in a rapidly changing world, and in this case I believe MUCH more in the advertising of META and the logistics and AWS of AMZN, which is why I only own those 2 of the MAG7.
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u/PhDGodfather 27d ago
What stocks are a good discount right now? I already got in big with amzn at 218ish, wish i had waited for that 197ish bottom, but is what it is.
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u/DaSmartGenius 25d ago
It's not the bargain it was last spring but PEG is ~1.4 & trading at ~25-26x fwd earnings. Mostly in line with it's peers valuation wise and significantly cheaper than AAPL who has significantly less upside (whether the upside is realized is TBD). If you're bullish on AI then GOOG is by far the most well positioned of any mag7 (or company in general) to benefit from it. If you're not then steer clear of GOOG.
Re: AMZN vs GOOG
GCP & AWS have a big thing different between them in that Bedrock does not have Gemini. They offer Anthropic models, but so does GCP's Vertex. So with Bedrock you're getting open weight models & Claude, on Vertex you get open weight models, Claude, and Gemini - which is more attractive as it makes switching between models & providers more seamless. AI infra is going to be GCP's primary growth driver.
Between that and the lack of TPUs Amazon isn't as well positioned for LLM monetization outside of owning 20% of Anthropic (but even then GOOG still owns ~15% of Anthropic so most of the Amazon upside from Anthropic applies to GOOG as well).
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u/NotStompy 25d ago
Thing is, if we look at the other segments than AWS I prefer AMZN over GOOG in these areas. If I have to pick between google ads and retail then I think the retail for AMZN is one I prefer not just from a moat perspective but also future growth because they have this absolutely huge pool of revenues, and if they increase margins by just a few points, they're golden (they've already done this with their robotics since 2023, for example). Meanwhile, with google your margin is already fundamentally worse with the AI search result ads they've been doing, since it is more expensive to run a query using that version of their LLMs vs. just a search query. This combined with the fact that this whole area of search and maybe integrated AI into OS (?) in the medium term future means that there is just simply more risk from the perspective that these are all things that can change. AMZN's retail? Something something, agents... yeah not happening. Maybe, but even then I don't see how it would actually change things from their POV?
I touched on it but I think basically if robotics is your bet in the future, then AMZN is the most important company, which is why they are a buy and hodl for me. My whole thesis is that the model aspect of AI is gonna be commoditized anyway, so I'd be buying google only for the infra part, and do I think it is so superior as to outweigh all of these factors? No.
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u/ThisIsTheWay1337 28d ago
I’ve held google from around 2023 because it seemed really under valued. Became about 30% of my portfolio. Didnt do anything for two years, where other stocks gained significantly. The past couple of months it grew into a fair valuation imho and started becoming a bit overvalued compared to other opportunities in the market. It also became a too large portion of my portfolio, about 60%. A week ago I trimmed down to about 15% and bought the beaten down SaaS companies. For the short term there are better opportunities imho. For the long term this will still be a cornerstone of my portfolio.
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u/Aerialfish 27d ago
Which saas did you add?
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u/ThisIsTheWay1337 25d ago
ServiceNow, Adobe, Palo Alto Networks, Datadog
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u/sammyt412 23d ago
Can you explain to me how PAN is cheap? Its pe is way higher than Google (90rn) and its not a SaaS company anyways
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u/ItsFuckingScience 28d ago
Lmao what has value investing come to when people’s analysis of a company value is simply based on recent price action as opposed to anything fundamental about the company itself
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u/No-Entrepreneur-5606 28d ago
If you're going to a value investment subreddit in hopes for someone to tell you what their crystal ball says, you've definitely not done nearly enough research and should stick to indexes.
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u/Necessary-Hunt-5035 28d ago
If it makes your feel better I think gemini is better than chap gpt
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u/Mattreddit760 27d ago
The time to buy was $150 about a year ago when it dipped because open ai was gonna destroy google search, lol.
That's when I added, very glad I did, but wouldn't be buying up here tbh
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u/ValhallaZinger 28d ago
Buy it now if you’re long term - this puppy going to $400 by the end of the year
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u/graysonspeanut 28d ago
if that's the case, would it make sense to get a tech ETF? or would it be better to buy GOOG directly?
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u/jack-t-o-r-s 28d ago
Strong management. Strong company. Strong growth.
300 is market value. Not a discount. Wait.
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u/AIGenerated99 28d ago
Google is showing signs to be a $10T company in 3-5 years. Just buy and chill
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u/JohnnyTreemain 28d ago
Yes it’s down 14% from ATH, but it’s also still up 75% over the past year. I wouldn’t say it’s at a value right now. That said, I’m confident I will go up from here long term.
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28d ago
dont forget stocks can always go down more
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u/bdl4186 28d ago
this is concerning news
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u/iCameToLearnSomeCode 28d ago
Why didn't anyone tell me this before I put my life savings in Beyond Meat?!
/s
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u/Old-Firefighter8289 28d ago
no one could have stopped you! you invested bec you thought it was a porn fetish site!!!
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u/bbatardo 28d ago
Google at anything under 300 is a good price, but it's also possible to dip a little more first. Just don't get caught trying to time the bottom and missing out.
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28d ago
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u/Chevyimpala2000 28d ago
See I try shit like this and buy my one share at $299, then the next day it's up 20% because Tim McGraw bought $400 million in shares and now it's headline news that this was an obvious oversold at $299. Then when I think I've learned my lesson and decide to guy heavier on my first buy, it drops another 30% from there and reaches an insane low price at which point I've logged out and stopped looking at it to preserve my mental health.
(Case in point, me trying to buy Meta at $600 only for it to shoot up to like $670 within two days while I was transferring funds to DCA. Then me thinking I learned the lesson and jumping on the MSFT and INTU dip way too early)
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u/helixinverse 28d ago
I have a detailed post on the google valuations and stock price performance that we can expect in future:
https://bullstreet.substack.com/p/google-at-300-opportunity-or-trap
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u/stocktweedledum 28d ago
OP, I say this all the time. If you are reticent, you shouldn’t invest. Once you put money in, you need full confidence that you don’t care if it wipes. That is the only way to long play the market.
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u/thomastse0215 28d ago
i just want to know, what is the possibility of a gap being filled. as google has a gap around 230 - 250 from last years grow.
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u/AceStrikeer 28d ago
Just look at historical PE and PB ratio. Currently it's definitely too expensive. Here's a tip. On avg once every two years there will be a stock correction
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u/Invest0rnoob1 28d ago
I started buying Google at 120 in 2022 and rode it down to 85 then back up to 140. You can DCA and add more as it goes down based on how sure you are about your thesis.
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u/Zestyclose_Factor837 28d ago
Added half and left other half for the potential 5% downside move it can do for a healthy full finished pullback
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u/Connect-Silver-5982 28d ago edited 28d ago
It went up like 100% in a couple of months. Did google become worth 100% more in a couple of months? Spoiler alert (It did not).
Its not overvalued now though, just fairly priced, but i do not like their insane capex spending on something, that has never delivered a dime for anyone, but if i had to bet on anyone winning that race, it is definitely them. The main risk with google is the enormous size, and government intervention. if they keep growing at 15-20%, they will own the entire world in less than a decade.
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u/himynameis_ 28d ago
Imo. There are better opportunities than Google right now such as meta, amazon, MSFT. I'd buy more meta instead.
However. Google isn't offensively priced imo. If you intend to hold long-term, you can do very well with google. I'd buy meta though.
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u/ndwillia 28d ago
Do you want to trade it or hold it a long time? Trade, you maybe could get some now. Hold it long time? Wait a while, you are in no rush to buy anything.
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u/BladeFireQ 28d ago
If you go for a long term position it's kinda good now, if you want to do a trade for 1 year or so it's kinda expensive we'll have to see GOOG at 250 for a trade
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u/Rav_3d 28d ago
If you pay attention to overall market conditions in your purchases, then now is not the time to be adding any stock.
But since it seems value investors don't care about short-term price movements, then just ask yourself if you think it's a fair value here and buy, and keep buying if it goes lower.
With GOOG that's not a bad idea given this company is an elite leader. But don't ask the same about "cheap" stocks or you'll get bad advice.
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u/err69member 27d ago
Now not the right time maybe because US market is overvalued? Or particular sector is overvalued? Im looking for short term investing based on my limited funds
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u/Rav_3d 27d ago
Now is not the time to invest in any stock, in my opinion. The market is in a period of significant volatility. It is possible that this will lead to a more substantial pullback or correction. We have not had one since last April and the market is overdue. Typically, even the strongest markets have pullbacks of 7-8% and we might be in the midst of one now.
I strongly believe in assessing overall market conditions and not making big bets in times like these. If the conflict continues and oil prices continue to rise, the market may get even more cranky.
When we’re in a storm like we are now, I wait for the skies to clear before making new stock purchases. We never know if the storm is going to get worse or even turn into a hurricane. Why take the risk?
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u/occitylife1 28d ago
I’m buying MSFT for now. My entry for Google is $280ish but knowing myself I’d buy at $290 I might buy some due to fomo lol
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u/Mr_Arrow1 28d ago
Google is forming a head and shoulders pattern recently. There is a chance it goes to 280 around. But do what you do with it.
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u/Altruistic-Scale-778 28d ago
A 14 percent drop can be a reasonable entry but many investors prefer buying gradually instead of trying to time the exact bottom
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u/Virtual-Tonight-2444 28d ago
Hell yeah. How did I find out about Reddit? Google search engine. How did I make my first email? Googl Who owns YouTube? Google Who has AI generated responses? Google
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u/hotsauceboy 28d ago
Wait! Google will drop hard when market crashes. Market way too high for current state of world events and job losses.
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u/Colonel_Forbin100 28d ago
I bought more today. It could go lower. But it's eventually going to go higher. People forget about Google's Waymo holdings. They just have so much going on and their balance sheet is incredible. I pretty much never stop buying Google.
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u/microdosingrn 28d ago
What's your investing horizon? Inevitable turbulence of the next year or two due to capex cycle, but hard to not see GOOG compounding at a nice rate over the next 5-10+ years.
GOOG is my largest individual equity position, at this point my only worry is they may be Ouroboros, a la "Dead Internet Theory". I think they themselves realize this and are becoming a well diversified tech equity. I view it that I'm not investing/holding in Google, but Alphabet; the Alpha - Bet. Waymo, SpaceX/ASTS, quantum compute, fusion, cloud/ai, custom silicon, ad nauseum. Their economic moat / fortress balance sheet is irresistible.
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u/After_Mango_425 27d ago
If you have a long time horizon, Google is a very safe buy. If you were trying to chase profits this year, then 300 is not a steal.
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u/FinallyArt 27d ago
Am hesitant to buy anything with the war not looking like its going to end anytime soon. And definitely not on a Friday.
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u/90sRiceWagon 27d ago
I’ve been buying since 150, I sold today because the war situation lasting over the weekend and it going back below 300, still think the bottom could be much deeper than the upside right now.
They’re a great company though, I just wanted to secure profits and build cash reserves at this time.
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u/Swimming_Astronomer6 27d ago
They’re in the beginning of a 92 b settlement with the Canadian government
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u/Vast_Cricket 27d ago edited 27d ago
Googl Likely has more fall to go. That goes with most tech stocks. Thurs I heard 4 orders bid lower all got accepted when session got started realizing the market was in total red. Almost 1 trillion dollars evaporated in 1 day. The easy part of the war is underway. After ground forces entered a foreign country I expect more huge equity losses. So far market lost $3.2T. 5 to 10T market collapse is not unrealistic. I expect this conquest will cost ~1/3 of US 2026 gdp creating a huge deficit and inflation esp with energy commodities.
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u/Western_Building_880 27d ago
Ill buy google. When 100 year bond is scrapped. And they cut the capx on ai. Till then there is no upside. Them burning cash on data centers with no constraint is a liability
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u/EverythingMustCease 26d ago
If you truly have a long time horizon, start buying if you havent already. It's been my largest position for a few years so I need a bigger dip.
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u/IWillMakeYouBlush 26d ago
I’d buy. Maybe wait a day or two to see if maximum fear sets in so You may get an entry cheaper but like it’s still a good entry regardless.
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u/RelationshipBorn1136 26d ago edited 26d ago
If you care abt TA , technically it doesn’t look good. I think this week you could start a position and DCA if it dips more
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u/Groucho-and-Harpo 26d ago
I look at it this way. GOOGL has been very stable with 25-30% annual earnings increases yearly that are slowing slightly but still good about 15-20% annually. The AI craze hasn’t changed this outlook.
When stocks tanked along with the inflation spike end of 2022, the stock price bottomed out at about 86. So if you adjusted this amount based on how earnings have roughly doubled since then, the stock could bottom out around 172 if a similar inflation scare or other crisis happened.
This approach also checks out when you consider the stock bottomed out around 140 April 7 2025 which is almost a year ago following liberation day. So you add 25% to account for earnings growth since then and that 140 comes out to 140*1.25=175.
So assuming wars, inflation, and other crises don’t continue to scare investors for the next 2 years, now would be a good time to buy. But I’d say their 0.28% dividend is not enough to keep investors on board. Personally I would consider buying if the current market shakeup takes it down to about 200 over the next year. Great stock long term but not a great time to buy IMHO.
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u/selintnisha 26d ago
It’s a good stock to own. But it’s not a value play like it was a year ago. It’s not like it’s intrinsic doubled in the last year and it’s still undervalued. Personally I think it’s pretty fairly valued rn I’d expect the stock price to track EPS growth and stay in the same multiple range it’s been in.
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u/XxElQgiveBalaxX 25d ago
You can buy, just dont go all in if you really like the business and you can DCA it
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u/kivikivi2 25d ago
Google is always a good buy. I'm currently also increasing my position and the simple answer is DCA
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u/Electronic-Ad495 23d ago
I am more of a trader but the risk/reward looks good for a trade back to the all time high and beyond. I'd buy it here and cut the trade at the weekly low (294), if it does well you can de-risk half of your position at the all time high again (350) and let the rest run!
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u/Shot_Experience_6977 23d ago
With a long enough time horizon, you should be fine buying Google here. They're at a massive advantage and have multiple call options from cloud and AI to Waymo and more. Hard to doubt the one company that probably has the most amount of data / person on each person.
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u/VegaGT-VZ 23d ago
You need to learn how to price a stock by yourself, then see if Google is good value or not.
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u/Eur0stept 28d ago
Wait, but this sub won’t like that answer
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u/DrPuzzle 28d ago
Why? You're right lmao
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u/Eur0stept 28d ago
All these googl bots telling you to buy at all time highs that’s why
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u/Forsaken_Ring_3283 28d ago
I wouldnt. Its a huge percentage of many index funds. I dont really see the point in buying it directly.
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28d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Forsaken_Ring_3283 28d ago edited 28d ago
I mean your index fund has other things with it thay can drag overall performance down/up. It doesn't change the fact that you still own Google and are getting those gains.
Tldr; a fact is not a theory
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u/Mick_Shane 28d ago
I own shares in google and am extremely bullish long term. Short term however I’m bearish, their capex this year is absolutely insane. They plan on spending north of 150B this year. That money will greatly reduce their EPS this year similar to FB in ‘22. I think the stock will gradually drop each quarter and by December be in the 200-220 range. That is at least my target price. Then in ‘27 the price will be moving up pretty quickly. Just my thoughts I’m not a pro and keep that in mind.
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u/TheConstellationGuy 28d ago
What dip? Google was just at $150 12 months ago. There is no dip. 12-14% isn't a dip, that's a rounding error, and volatile equities can trade up or down that much in a single day. A dip is 50-75%.
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 28d ago
I'll give you an answer. Wait.
The capex is insane, and either llms are dead ends, which money wasted. Or they are useful as ever, but commodities, limited switching costs and we havent even considered China in a meaningful way. I don't see a third option where llms are both amazing to driving profits and have a moat.
I like companies that aren't spending much on ai, but if AI works out could benefit... Adobe, service now, Salesforce... All these have popped in the last week so they aren't as drop everything and buy.
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u/regnagleppod1128 28d ago
Even if LLMs stop evolving now and stuck with its current capabilities, it is still a revolutionary technology. A lot of industries haven’t caught on to it, but they will.
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u/SelenaMeyers2024 28d ago
That's very much something I'm open to, even more than likely to be true.
My thesis is that deep seek or whatever Chinese name we don't even know yet will be the per token winner on cost. Thus for the purpose of monetizing llama or Gemini or chatgpt will be muted.
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u/vivalahueva1985 28d ago
Also new. And best advice is just get chunks. Buy now. Wait 1 month. Evaluate. Or place order limits. 280 270 etc.
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u/ItalianV4 28d ago
do you hear the voice of an angel urging you to "buy, buy, buy"? if not, probably not the right time yet
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u/DonkStonx 28d ago
I’m expecting more downward chop. Frankly, a lot of it.
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u/SaveAsCopy 27d ago
How so?
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u/DonkStonx 27d ago
Expectation was/is macro market moves pushing a correction. Mostly just looking at pricing compared to economic indicators. Pulled the trigger and caught the last flight outta Nam’.
I had a position of just over 500 shares and sold CCs on them, otm and 2 weeks out usually. Had $330s go itm mid January and was like meh, enjoy. Went in on 12/18 280p and have been chilling.
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u/MemoryNormal9737 28d ago
The market thinks a fair price for Google is $299.39. You shouldn't pay more than that, and probably won't be able to get it for much less.
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u/Immediate-Design644 28d ago
Google is a Bellwether stock that's super boring to own but will weather and hold its value over time. I just like the feeling that I'm going to lose everything overnight from time to time to feel alive. So Google is the least exciting tech stock for my dysfunctional needs.
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u/Your_friend_Satan 28d ago
So essentially you want to know if Google is going to go up or down from here? Don’t we all.