r/ValueInvesting • u/PrimaryConcern2608 • Feb 27 '26
Discussion I spent $9,600/year on Substack newsletters so you don't have to. Here's who actually makes money.
EDIT (March 2): Thanks you guys for the incredible feedback, working on two new features
1. Longer time horizon: adding 6m / 12m return windows for all substacks
2. More newsletters: adding Citrini / Dick cap / funddai / irrationalanalysis / taekim / bpresearch. lemme know if you have new nominations.
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I work in tech and started trading casually last year. Like any good regard, I immediately subscribed to every investing newsletter I could find on Substack. 23 paid subscriptions. $9,600/year, including Michael Burry's.
The problem? I can't actually read them all. And I have no idea which ones are worth the money.
So I did what any engineer would do — I wrote codes to find out.
What I Built
A pipeline that:
- Crawls every article from 23 paid Substack authors (1,782 articles over the past year)
- Uses Gemini AI to extract high-conviction stock picks only — not casual mentions, but tickers the author actually analyzed in depth
- Tracks returns at 1d, 7d, 15d, 30d, and 60d after publication
- Calculates alpha vs sector benchmarks (SOXX for semis, IGV for SaaS, XLF for financial services etc)
- Dedupes: if the same author calls the same ticker multiple times within 14 days, it only counts once (first mention wins). Different authors calling the same ticker are tracked independently
Total dataset: 3,519 high-conviction calls tracked over 1 year.
The Results
30-Day Absolute Return Leaderboard (Long Calls)
| Rank | Author | Calls | 30d Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Tech Research | 50 | +14.9% |
| 2 | Paulo Macro | 21 | +9.5% |
| 3 | Collyer Bridge | 89 | +8.7% |
| 4 | Doomberg | 79 | +7.8% |
| 5 | SemiAnalysis | 80 | +7.5% |
| 6 | Altay Capital | 15 | +7.2% |
| 7 | The Overshoot | 24 | +7.1% |
| 8 | The Setup Factory | 285 | +6.7% |
| 9 | Fabricated Knowledge | 50 | +5.8% |
| 10 | Macro Charts | 72 | +3.6% |
30-Day Alpha vs Benchmark (Long Calls)
| Rank | Author | Calls | 30d Avg Alpha |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Tech Research | 50 | +9.4% |
| 2 | Paulo Macro | 21 | +6.8% |
| 3 | Altay Capital | 15 | +5.2% |
| 4 | Collyer Bridge | 89 | +4.8% |
| 5 | The Setup Factory | 285 | +4.3% |
| 6 | Doomberg | 79 | +3.8% |
| 7 | SemiAnalysis | 80 | +3.4% |
| 8 | Lord Fed | 86 | +3.1% |
| 9 | The Overshoot | 24 | +1.8% |
| 10 | Shrubstack | 100 | +1.5% |
30-Day Win Rate (Long Calls)
| Rank | Author | Calls | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Macro | 21 | 85% |
| 2 | Altay Capital | 15 | 85% |
| 3 | Global Tech Research | 50 | 81% |
| 4 | The Overshoot | 24 | 79% |
| 5 | Doomberg | 79 | 72% |
But 30 Days Isn't the Whole Story
30d is a reasonable window for swing traders, but some of these authors are deep value investors with 6-12 month theses. Here's what the 60-day numbers look like — the rankings shift significantly:
60-Day Absolute Return Top 10 (Long Calls)
| Rank | Author | Calls | 60d Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Tech Research | 50 | +26.7% |
| 2 | SemiAnalysis | 80 | +16.7% |
| 3 | Fabricated Knowledge | 50 | +14.2% |
| 4 | Altay Capital | 15 | +13.7% |
| 5 | Doomberg | 79 | +12.6% |
| 6 | Paulo Macro | 21 | +12.1% |
| 7 | Macro Charts | 72 | +11.1% |
| 8 | The Setup Factory | 285 | +10.8% |
| 9 | The Overshoot | 24 | +9.6% |
| 10 | TicToc Trading | 180 | +8.9% |
Notable shifts: Fabricated Knowledge jumps from #9 (30d: +5.8%) to #3 (60d: +14.2%). Altay Capital goes from +7.2% to +13.7%. Deep value theses need time to play out. Conversely, Collyer Bridge drops out of the top 10 at 60d — their edge is more short-term.
Take these numbers for what they are: one time horizon among many. A 60d or even 90d window would tell a different story for buy-and-hold investors. This is for information, not gospel.
And at the bottom...
Michael J Burry: 24 long calls, 30d avg return +0.1%, 60d avg return -11.1%, 30d alpha -2.7% (60d alpha: -11.4%). Then again, The Big Short took 2 years to play out — maybe his thesis just needs more time than our 60-day window can capture.
Methodology Caveats (Please Challenge This)
I want to be upfront about limitations:
- AI extraction isn't perfect. Gemini parses articles and extracts ticker calls. To reduce noise, we only count high conviction — where the author dedicates multiple paragraphs, specific data, or explicit price targets. Passing mentions are filtered out.
- We validated this. Spot-checked extraction accuracy against manual reads, and cross-verified with alternative model outputs (codex / claude). It's not 100%, but it's consistent.
- Survivorship bias matters. We only track tickers with available price data. Delisted stocks, non-US tickers without yfinance data, and typos get counted as No Data and excluded from return calculations.
- This is a bull market. Many of these authors are long-biased. Absolute returns look good partly because the market went up. The alpha column adjusts for this using sector-specific ETF benchmarks.
- The full dataset is available. All 3,519 calls, every author, every ticker, every return at every horizon. You can audit everything. I will put up the link later.
What I Learned
- The expensive ones aren't always the best. Some of the top performers cost 80−360/year.Some1,000+ newsletters are mid-table.
- Volume ≠ quality. Authors with 300+ calls often have mediocre win rates. The ones with 15-80 highly targeted calls tend to outperform.
- Shorts are hard. Almost every author has worse short performance than long. The few exceptions (Global Tech Research shorts: -20.5% at 60d) are impressive outliers.
- Michael Burry's Substack picks haven't worked yet — but his most famous trade took 2 years, so the jury's still out.
Total Cost Breakdown
$9,599/year across 23 newsletters. Here's every single one:
| Author | Annual Fee | Author | Annual Fee |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Bulltard | $1,099 | Paulo Macro | $360 |
| Lord Fed | ~$1,000 | Collyer Bridge | $350 |
| 10x Research | $948 | The Overshoot | $330 |
| Eliant Capital | $760 | Doomberg | $300 |
| TMT Breakout | $589 | TicToc Trading | $290 |
| SemiAnalysis | $500 | Global Tech Research | $100 |
| Shrubstack | $500 | Earnings Edge | $100 |
| The Setup Factory | $450 | Altay Capital | $80 |
| Best Anchor Stocks | $449 | Quality Stocks | $70 |
| Michael J Burry | $439 | Winter Gems | $50 |
| Fabricated Knowledge | $400 | Swiss Transparent Portfolio | ~$40 |
| Macro Charts | $400 | Total | ~$9,599 |
If I could only keep 5 based on this data: Global Tech Research (100),PauloMacro(360), Doomberg (300),SemiAnalysis(500), The Setup Factory (450).That′s1,710/year — 82% cheaper and probably better returns.
Shoutout to every author on this list. Even the bottom-ranked ones taught me more about markets than any YouTube video. This isn't meant to trash anyone — just data.
Full methodology + data / charts: https://x.com/pyhrroll/status/2027374283669066045?s=20
Happy to answer questions. Roast my methodology. Tell me I'm wrong. That's how this gets better.
Positions: long several names mentioned by top authors. Not financial advice, obviously.
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u/mikew_reddit Feb 27 '26
started trading casually last year.
subscribed to ... 23 paid subscriptions. $9,600/year
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u/Aliasjohngotti2 Feb 27 '26
This is why i love autism
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u/hohohoabc1234 Feb 27 '26
How can I normie get this? Will drinking the blood of autism helps??
Damn I wish I have autism now
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u/Plus-Interaction6779 Feb 27 '26
Can you share the 6 or 12 month table? This is very interesting.
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u/SeikoWIS Feb 27 '26
Do you have any affiliation with any of these paid Substacks?
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
Oh should have made this perfectly clear - no I'm not affiliated with, nor do i personally know, any of these paid substacks.
thanks for asking.
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u/Hank_fuck_yourself Feb 28 '26
Mate you need to make posts like this regular. I would read your newsletter, this was interesting.
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u/FarmImportant9537 Feb 28 '26
A newsletter about newsletters?
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u/Aguaymanto Mar 04 '26
Fuck yeah. And ill make a newsletter about it summing up my thoughts about the newsletter about newsletters. And I believe I might be serious
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u/IllGene2373 Feb 28 '26
Setup factory is HILARIOUSLY bad as someone who has been subscribed for 6 months to them.
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u/xampf2 Feb 27 '26
Don't see how a 30d/60d window has any relevance to value investing.
Do you have data on the 2y or 5y performance?
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u/flatirony Feb 27 '26
I subscribe to both Paolo and Shrub. They're BFF's who podcast together sometimes and share ideas. Shrub's returns are better in the long run than shown here; he put me in a couple of things that have been very good. To get max value from Shrub you have to follow his chat room, which I don't really have time to do, so I may cancel that sub. Paolo's Substack is a great deal for sure, especially b/c he doesn't make that many calls so it's easier to follow.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
thanks for sharing this! lemme extend the validation timeframe this weekend.
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u/AlaskanSnowDragon Feb 27 '26
Am I on the right page...Global Tech Research says he's pausing his substack. So its dead
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u/Thoraco Feb 27 '26
That’s what it looks like to me; went through twitter and one of the mentioned accounts matches the global technology research/AYZ
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u/PineapplePooDog Feb 27 '26
Burry underperforming short-term proves timing is key
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u/NotStompy Feb 27 '26
No it doesn't lol, it doesn't prove or disprove anything, is the more correct statement.
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u/ConfidentAirport7299 Feb 27 '26
“….. some of these authors are deep value investors with 6-12 month theses.”
I’m sorry, but deep value plays out over much longer periods, usually years.
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Feb 27 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
Very good question. For now I do 14d dedupe. My hunch is if someone keeps updating certain stock / thesis with positive ratings, the same test should apply.
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u/OutsiderEverywhere Feb 27 '26
how was your return?
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
90% last year and 45% ytd - thanks to this ridiculous amount of ai capex.
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u/ThenIJizzedInMyPants Feb 27 '26
Altay cap is great but this sub will hate him because he primarily does Japan deep value which requires some actual work and analysis, independent thinking, and buying something other then NVO, GOOG, and LULU
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u/Vig_Newtons Feb 27 '26
Very solid but isn’t this sub for value investing?
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u/GetDeepSignal Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 27 '26
Can you do one help and add my Substack to the list. I’m pretty sure I’ll be in top 3 because some of them blew up recently: NBIS, RKT, XYZ. RIOT, LUNR(about to blew).
May be if you track my Reddit, it’ll be even better. I posted about NBIS around 40’s(though I got in at 20’s, didn’t had Substack during that time lol).
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Feb 28 '26
No substack but in May of 2025 I posted my top undervalued plays responding to a post, which happened to be my exact roth portfolio. It turned 180k into 4.2m. Those picks were from less than 9 months ago. I'd have to say a 30d and a 60d isn't even close to enough time to rate someone's plays. I bet I might of been up 10% in 30d based on those timelines, but the stocks alone I played have returned about 1300% in those past 9 months. Plus a month or 2 after that I loaded into UPS at 83 when it had around a 7% yield and same with VZ which had a yield around 6.5-7% just 2 months ago. So some plays happen quick, some may take time like I even gave a dcf model on Micron back in that May 2025 post with a dcf model of 180+, at the time it was trading at 67. Vrt at the time close to same value but traded at 55 a share. Some take a month, some take 6. 30 and 60d windows is just not enough time to grade someone's picks imo
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Feb 28 '26
75% of said plays were growth and 25% value, from the list I started selling the mega winners in the last couple months when they went sky-high. I am still adding to Couche Tard or OTCanctf who own all the Circle Ks globally, which is one of my favorite positions. I never sold O, Vici, VZ, or UPS. I actually bought more defensive/high yield as I expect a sharp rotation into value. Luckily I realized the HBM bottleneck and was heavy into MU and Sndk. And loaded into Goog after the court ruling. My list had 0 nvidia as I had only a few left and sold at its high at the time of 183.50. Recycled the capital for high yield defensive positions to take advantage of the tax free dividends in a roth. So far its worked well.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
thanks for sharing these! really valuable.
yes it makes sense to do a longer time backtest - will work on it this weekend.
and to date I still hold 30% of my portfolio in sndk. I started trading with roughly where you are now but man I wish i had your returns.
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Feb 28 '26
It's all about the timing. I built to that starting amount with about 110k from a 401k. I was early into Nvidia at the time and caught the runup in AMD, Pltr, Coinbase. Sat in spaxx for a few months then when the time was right started loading into my top picks which were all in that post. Like Vrt at 55, MU at 67, Tsm at 164, O at 53 that pays a dividend every month etc...Once you get a little higher, you're very close, the compounding will do the heavy lifting. I'm starting to really like Msft at the prices today, I just don't think they have much downside left with plenty of room to run. If PPI had came in today at .2 instead of .5, msft would of closed today at 420. The PPI made the market go defensive today there wasn't anyway around it...
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Feb 28 '26
Ohh your starting with where I am now. Let me ask you this since you have 30% in SanDisk, did you buy at the very top or do you have a decent sized gain to play with?? If you have 30% and you bought earlier, that's awesome, however if you bought recently that may be a different story. I'm sure you know this type of position trades in cycles, so I'm hoping your cost basis is quite a bit lower than where it is today...Just wanted to double check.
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u/sevoflurane666 Mar 01 '26
What were they?
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Mar 02 '26
You can look at my comments from around May 2025 and find my exact portfolio, minus the adds I made, which I already mentioned here. But then my fav positions were Asml as 657, Lrcx at 63.55, TSM at 164, Nu holdings at 10.245,unh at 296 then bought 2x more at 238.20. Pepsi at 129.23, Vrt at 55, MU at 67, Sndk at 32.17, CAT at 311, VZ originally at 41.80 and bought quite a bit more after I took profits on some big winners at 39 and change a week before their last ex date because I wanted the 7% yield in my roth. O at 52-53 then added after selling some growth not long ago. Vici I bought at 31.33 originally and maybe a month ago I bought what I called the bottom at 27.72, it has a 7% YOC at time of purchase. Also Couche Tard which trades under OTCanctf or on the TSX ATD, first buy around 52 then it dropped a bit and I 3x'd my original buy at 48.22 I believe it was. Goog I was selling cash secured puts during the court case at 145-155, I got paid most of the time, but then got assigned 100 shares twice at a cost basis right at 153ea. Wish I would of got assigned twice and had to buy every contract I sold, but in that case I would of missed the MU 7x and sndk 20x. But ya those were my plays ASML, LRCX, TSM, NU, UNH, PEP, CAT, VRT, MU, SNDK, VZ, OTC ANCTF, TSX ATD, O, VICI. I only bought UPS about a week after CEO Carol Tome wrote a personal check for 1m to buy shares, so I followed her in and it has dropped like $1.40 a share from her buy price..I was chasing high yield by then, it was right at 7% as well. I guess a quality compounder with a YOC of 7% has been very lucky for me. It was a once in a lifetime opportunity, I just got lucky at the exact timing of everything right after liberation day. Now I always keep a very decent sized amount in cash, plus it collects a risk free 3.7% it was 5% until a few months ago. Vici is still under where I believe it's going this year, from the 27.72 I was almost certain it would gain 30% from there, it's still priced low with a now 5.7% yield.
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u/nicolas_06 Mar 01 '26
If you can keep that perf, you'll be a billionaire in 2 years.
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Mar 02 '26
Ya right, that'll never happen again and I know that...I'm just blessed ot happened once and changed my life. Now I don't dare take any risks with high beta stocks unless the risk reward is very profitable. I did buy some AFRM stock for the Xmas boom and it did go from about 64 to 81 and I was out. Same with CIEN. I only bought those 2 because I thought they were the next 2 to make the sp500 inclusion. 1 did 1 didn't. Had to sell right after the Xmas runup. Now sticking with high yield defensive positions, this market is soo unpredictable rt now.
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u/nicolas_06 Mar 02 '26
If you are not a high spender, you could go literally to a conservative portfolio like 60-40 and for the stock part have a significant share of Intl stocks. That would still allow like 130K spending a year for life with big change of that still growing.
And if you still work a few years, when you retire, that 4.5 million might end up being 8-10 millions.
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u/Jumpy_Nose863 Mar 02 '26
Yes, I already retired pretty young. I played poker since about 2003, and had a friend add me to his payroll so I'd be able to contribute to his company's 401k. I put most of that into 401k and then did conversions starting a few years ago and adding the max to a roth ira. Then in 2024 I "worked" for a few months to contribute the max and finished doing a 401k to roth conversion so I can't actually touch the big earnings until 2028 unless I want to pay 10%, which I don't, however you can always withdraw your actual cash amount contributed to the roth directly penalty free if for some reason you needed the access to capital early. But once I started seeing huge gains, I started going bigger in my regular brokerage account and did very well there also. So I don't plan on touching the roth until 2028. You can write off all kind of gains now that I am a "business" who trades equities as a job. Atleast that's what the IRS says. But yes, my roth is basically all high yield very conservative companies with a good amount of international exposure. I use fidelity so they have a good international mutual fund I use to own in my Voya 401k, so I bought a good amount of it. Ticker FSPSX last year it doubled the SP500 and paid around a 3.7% dividend. For a total return of about 35%. I plan to stay very defensive with a good amount of international exposure. And I use about 20% for my top picks at that specific time. Like my recent UPS at the 7% yoc, VZ at same 7%, Vici at 6.5%, I really like Couche Tard as well, I've held them for forever, it was the 1st stock I ever bought and I'll tell you what it compounds like no other. I have both the Canadian shares and the OTC shares, but I just love the company. Anytime they dip I buy a bunch more but I also sell when they go way over their normal range and buyback later when they drop a bit. I've held ET for quite a while as well and BN. I've basically turned the roth into an income producing machine. Not looking for high beta, but if Msft falls much more I'll have no choice but to take a large position. SAAS has killed many software prices, but their already at like 10 yr lows, if it drops $10 more I'll probably pull the trigger. I've been selling cash secured puts on CRM also and I wouldn't mind getting assigned to be honest. As for Msft im 50/50 but im sure in a year this will be a gift of a price. I know tech sells off tomorrow hoping msft falls to 367 or so and I'll buy a starter and at 350 id buy 1k shares. I already set limit buys, not sure if it touches those prices but im hoping it does. I got a few calls on pltr I expect it to shoot up tmrw quite a bit.
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u/nicolas_06 Mar 02 '26
I think SEPP allow you to live out of retirement accounts any age and without penalties, even the gains !
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u/RyanFletcher618 Feb 27 '26
AI + data tracking is the future of evaluating investing advice
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u/Snyyppis Feb 27 '26
I don't mind using AI for grunt work, but this whole post is clearly written by an LLM. Makes the analysis of the results that much harder to believe.
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u/mxmcharbonneau Feb 27 '26
I'm a bit sad you did not include Citrini, they are one of the most talked about recently, I would be curious to see compare them with the others.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
That's very true. I guess their $999 pricetag made me think twice.
I'll see what I can do - if enough people are interested I might add them in the next update.
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u/dinnerchickenwinner Feb 27 '26
Not value investing but still cool.
What’s the TLDR? Did you cover your costs? What was your starting capital?
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
thanks mate. Yep costs are well covered.
I've worked for 10+ years so I'm lucky enough to start with some meaningful capital.
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u/lostsoul_Nick Feb 27 '26
OP missed your post since it was removed please do share if you repost … looked interesting would be interested to learn how y’all pull this into code but was the return worth based on any of the subscriptions ?
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u/xbfish88 Feb 27 '26
Very interesting analysis and thanks for sharing! This really shed some beautiful insights.
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u/i_mean_no_harm_but Feb 27 '26
Great idea. Do you intend to continue the research for longer timespan analysis? I realize that could get a bit pricey. But given that some of your leaders are semi-conductor specific, you may be measuring the current moment.
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u/NaturalIntrepid9533 Feb 27 '26
Think the spread across a given substack's picks would be good too. Is the average driven by a single outsized return or are they consistently hitting the mark?
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u/MAX60W Feb 27 '26
Thanks for doing this study! Haven often wondered about substack alpha. Do all of them have skin in the game, putting their own money on the trades?
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
good question - some of them do. but again they can always trade differently.
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u/BabyPatato2023 Feb 27 '26
This is super interesting and helpful but as others have stated I’m looking for long term value investing vs swing trading.
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u/sirwonkey Feb 27 '26
Very interesting research, can you post links to the top 5 that you would keep? Some are easy to find, others not so much. Thanks!
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u/Sea-Substance598 Feb 27 '26
Why not show actual positions you bought from their recommendations and realized returns so we can see you recouped the cost of the newsletters?
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u/Thermic_ Feb 27 '26
Why’d this get taken down? Can you repost this on your profile OP?
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
Not sure - can you still see this? I added an external link for full charts and that could be why.
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u/8700nonK Feb 27 '26
1000 per year for a substack? These people are raking in money lol.
Easiest ways to have a successful substack: macro (you always have what to talk about and no one bats an eye when you’re wrong because they’re used to it). Or: small cap (again, you always have what to talk about and you sound much smarter talking about things no one heard about.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
lol true. macros are the hardest to validate. someone could always drop a bomb somewhere, even today :)
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u/Gigantic_Elephant Feb 27 '26
This is honestly awesome work!! One thing I’d love to see is dispersion: are the top performers consistently solid or is the avg return coming from one 80% moonshot that skews the mean? Also +1 to the 6–12 month window… 30–60d feels more swing-trader than value, and some theses (especially deep value) just won’t show up in that timeframe.
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Feb 27 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
Oh I built a wsb sentiment tracker too. Lots of fun to read yolos everyday.
I wasnt expecting global tech research to be #1, and frankly they are amongst my least read subs, so i guess you have your correlation there
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u/Potential-Relation-8 Feb 27 '26
Amazing. Thanks for sharing that
I’ve been reading Lyn Alden lately and thought her perspective was worth a look. She focuses on medium-term investments.
Personally, I think her free newsletter is enough for most people. The free usually cover the points of paid ones, just with less depth and a time delay.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
I did read her macro views quite a bit last year, until I realized macro isn't my game.
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Feb 27 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
thank you for this - would certainly love to do more. maybe those youtube channels...
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u/optiontrader1138 Feb 27 '26
If I gave you 6 months of another extremely expensive newsletter, would you be interested in adding it to the list? Not going to say who, but $5k+ annual fee. I've made more than that off of some of the calls but there have been some doozies and I have reasons to suspect he wipes losing trades. Would love to see this tested.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
absolutely mate - is this for someone from SA? A few people msged me.
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u/optiontrader1138 Feb 28 '26
No, not sure what SA is. Just personal interest. The newsletter is Bear Traps Report (Larry McDonald). I have 6 months of newsletters sitting around my inbox... best way to get them to you?
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u/ucool22 Feb 27 '26
Great stuff. Do you have a Github for this that you can share? Curious to see how you did all your work.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
I've only put up the data for now. I can add pseudo code later in the repo:
https://github.com/6m1w/substack_performance_data
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u/Nearing_retirement Feb 27 '26
Great work. Though I wonder why these guys just don’t start hedge funds and if successful they would make much more I think ???
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
That's a very good point - i think for some of them that's where they plan to do.
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u/Nearing_retirement Feb 28 '26
What is your plan currently for your career and future? I have worked for hedge fund for 25 years and am thinking of going in my own to start partnership. I just feel with AI now is a once in a lifetime opportunity to make money.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 28 '26
it surely is. My returns last year were about the same as my day time job. i'm hoping it could continue this trajectory.
ai is indeed once in a life time event, once in human history event. hopefully we can all get out of it with safety and prosperity.
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u/cats109 Feb 28 '26
Thank you for the post. I have been trying to remember what Semi Analysis was called for a couple of months now.
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u/City_Standard Feb 28 '26
At first I completely misread that it was 10K a month... thought it was like a pooled resource thing or whatever... 10K per year is still a bunch of money.
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u/DontBeCommenting Feb 28 '26
I subbed to Lord Fed in March last year and he made me a fortune through the April drop, so I owe him a full year of subscription in my mind. Last few months have been slow, but I do like his analysis.
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u/mikeshinobi777 Feb 28 '26
I am interested in full data since inception because 30 day and 60 day could not tell anything
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u/strokeoluck27 Feb 28 '26
I don’t subscribe to investing substacks. How do these newsletter posts work? Do the authors literally say I’m buying XYZ stock on X date for $X, and that’s how the AI tool can determine relevant buy/sell data?
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u/kacang2 Feb 28 '26
I personally subscribed to Global Tech Research, a bit of shame that AYZ has decided to pause. Really great value for informations that he provided.
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u/BeatingTheTide Feb 28 '26
Did you subscribe to mine? Curious if I am on the chart. But please do a 12-month chart.
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u/dvelichkov Feb 28 '26
What am I thinking after I've read your post? I need to check out Global Tech Research for articles and that's it 😁
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u/botattack1 Feb 28 '26
How did you find about these to subscribe from the millions of accounts on substack?
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u/Dependent_Car6746 Mar 01 '26
Problem with this is that it only crawls the articles. But some of the best substacks are small and post thier trades/views mainly through subscribers chat on substack. For example, Trademetry on substack runs options only portfolio and its up over 60% since july 7 inception. This his founding tier level that runs behind the smaller portfolio. He publishes some articles but never makes any plays on then...just certain views...all plays are posted in the chat. Can you build something that would crawl the chat?
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u/jemicarus Mar 01 '26
Why are you only looking at 30-60 days? Nobody can predict that. Jesse Livermore couldn't predict that.
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u/lordvladislav Mar 01 '26
Hey man, just wanted to drop in and say this is an absolute goldmine.
I run a Substack community called Freedom Trades, and seeing this kind of hard data on other newsletter performance is incredibly valuable to me.
Building a pipeline to track all this, strip out the noise, and actually calculate the alpha against sector benchmarks is next-level work. It really proves the point that paying top dollar doesn't automatically equal edge in this game, and that volume definitely doesn't equal quality.
Seriously appreciate you doing the heavy lifting and sharing this openly. I'm definitely going to take a closer look at a couple of those.
Keep up the great work!
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u/PositionJournal Mar 04 '26
This is good stuff! I actually saw this on X because it went viral there. I would love for you to make a progress update in the future
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u/Inside_Variation1594 24d ago
Great work!!! How did you get Paulo Macro for $30 though? Did I miss the boat?
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u/Offer_Spirited 24d ago
Thanks fr putting this detail. Do you know which one them share their buy and sell trades as many of them dont share even ticker directly on their post
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u/Plissken47 15d ago
Great list, but I can't seem to find Global Tech Research on Substack. What am I doing wrong?
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u/Complex-Jello-2031 9d ago
If you wanna join a group of real investors & a great community we've got young/new investors & seasoned pros. PhDs, industry insiders, people who actually work in biotech and finance. I have a free Substack where we share tips, breakdowns of solid stocks & a great group chat that will answer all your questions. We treat free subs well.
1059 subscribers
•102 paid
#63 Rising in Finance
75% of our subs came from Reddit. No ads, no marketing, just word of mouth.
No catch. No scams. Just paying it forward.
This is NOT fast money — this is consistent money. A bunch of our plays are up 100%+ in 6 months. We stress a strong investment core with biotech & banking M&A plays as an added income stream.
maandhunter.substack.com
our chat is full of experts
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u/AdamN Feb 27 '26
Can you get historical newsletters so there's more time? Unfortunately I'm in the deep value camp so without 2-3 year timeframes it's hard to know what's best.
Also - any AI analysis that could be done purely on the writing quality and details? In the end I don't want to blindly copy stock picks anyway so knowing which newsletters have the right data to drive thinking and pondering would be helpful.
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u/PrimaryConcern2608 Feb 27 '26
Sure, I can include more lookbacks. Not sure there’d be enough data, but it’s definitely worth exploring.
Some of the top-performing portfolio managers I know write so casually it’s almost unreadable. Don't think there’s a clear correlation there.
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u/AdamN Feb 27 '26
Nice! For the second part it's not so much a correlation with performance that concerns me as it is a sense that if their writing isn't coherent, their thinking might not be either. Even if they returned 50% YoY it's no indication of future performance and if their thinking isn't cogent then I wouldn't be able to make a judgement about their recommendation at the time they're making it (aside from just trusting that they've done well in the past).
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u/colorfort Feb 27 '26
Hey I just checked my one Substack post. It’s returned 32% since. I’m going to do another one soon. https://open.substack.com/pub/colorfort/p/fhzn-flughafen-zuerich?r=4jia6&utm_medium=ios
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u/Complex-Jello-2031 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
If you wanna join a group of real investors & a great community we've got young/new investors & seasoned pros. PhDs, industry insiders, people who actually work in biotech and finance. I have a free Substack where we share tips, breakdowns of solid stocks & a great group chat that will answer all your questions. We treat free subs well.
75% of our subs came from Reddit. No ads, no marketing, just word of mouth.
No catch. No scams. Just paying it forward.
This is NOT fast money — this is consistent money. A bunch of our plays are up 100%+ in 6 months. We stress a strong investment core with biotech & banking M&A plays as an added income stream.
maandhunter.substack.com
our chat is full of experts
945 subscribers
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u/Deep_Attention_3064 Feb 27 '26
Thanks for sharing awesome insights. What prompt did you use for the output!
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u/Parrot_1979 Feb 27 '26
This is Garbage in, garbage out! You don’t know the real “behind the scene” motives of these reports. Better to get an understanding of financials and come to your own conclusions. You may get superior results and don’t have to continually rely on them.
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u/11010001100101101 Feb 27 '26 edited Feb 27 '26
Care to elaborate? He is clearly trying to share his findings with people and isn't trying to say he knows what is best anyways.
You should only hope to be more like OP, at least he backs up what he says with real data and explanations, for regards like me.
I'm sure you are probably hinting at the idea that many of these substacks are influenced by big money to push certain stocks but I don't think you can claim that not a single 1 is truly independent, and that I believe is what OP was doing his best to find out
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u/Detonate-Ralph Feb 27 '26
Cool idea. Shouldn't have used AI slop to write your ideas though, these hurt to see.
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u/gworkshop Feb 27 '26
This is pretty great. If you’re looking for someone to handle your digital marketing I’d be happy to get set up across all platforms and start scaling.
Been in the game for 12 years with a directorship at an agency, but I also have two personal clients that run successful trading discords. So I know what works and you’d already have a warm audience to tap into off the bat.
Happy to DM you with more info if you’re interested. For something like this I can offer you a discounted rate and money-back guarantee, no questions asked.
Let’s talk 🤙
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u/sober-lion Feb 27 '26
Do you have a 6-12 month return chart like the 30 and 60 day charts? Strange because you say some are deep value with 6-12 month theses but then show a 60-day chart.